Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. research snapshot
EL AI stock analysis currently reads Estee Lauder as a prestige beauty franchise that has returned to organic sales growth and is rebuilding margins after a deep operating reset. The company raised its fiscal 2026 outlook in May 2026, guided to 3% to 5% organic sales growth and a 12.5% to 13.0% adjusted operating margin for fiscal 2027, and is executing Beauty Reimagined and the Profit Recovery and Growth Plan under CEO Stephane de La Faverie. As of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, EL closed at $83.90 on July 31, 2026, with a market cap near $30.35 billion, about 27.8x forward earnings, 2.05x sales, 7.60x book value, 23.62x free cash flow, and no useful trailing GAAP P/E because trailing net income is negative. The EL AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges rather than a precise price promise because the recovery depends on China, travel retail, tariffs, restructuring charges, consumer demand, and margin execution.
Current price
$83.90
Market cap
$30.35 billion verified market cap
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Prestige beauty recovery with improving margins and clear execution risk
Trend status
Above the 50-day average near $83.85, still below the 200-day average near $92.29
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Estee Lauder owns prestige brands across skin care, makeup, fragrance, and hair care, including Estee Lauder, Clinique, MAC, La Mer, Jo Malone London, Le Labo, Tom Ford, and The Ordinary. | High |
| Moat | Brand equity, premium distribution, category know-how, and scale support the moat, but fast-moving indie brands and channel shifts keep pressure on it. | Medium |
| Management | Stephane de La Faverie has led a return to organic growth and raised fiscal 2026 guidance, but the operating margin rebuild is still in progress. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue rose to $14.833 billion, Q3 FY2026 net sales grew 5% to $3.712 billion, adjusted operating margin hit 15.0%, and FY2026 guidance was raised. | High |
| Valuation | At $83.90, EL trades near 27.8x forward earnings, 2.05x sales, 7.60x book value, 23.62x free cash flow, and a 1.67% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock is above the 50-day moving average near $83.85 but below the 200-day moving average near $92.29, so the chart is a recovery attempt rather than a confirmed long-term uptrend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are China demand, Asia travel retail, tariffs, restructuring costs, brand heat, department-store exposure, debt, securities litigation, and the Oracle data breach. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Data confidence is high because current market and financial data were cross-checked. Return confidence is lower because the thesis depends on margin and sales execution. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The case has improved with raised guidance and margin expansion, but still needs durable evidence of sales growth and double-digit operating margins. | Medium-low |
EL AI stock forecast
The EL AI stock forecast is scenario-based because trailing GAAP earnings are negative and valuation depends on adjusted EPS recovery. Using the $83.90 July 31, 2026 close as the price reference, consensus fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS near $3.18, and a scenario multiple range, the outcomes are roughly $110 to $135 in a bullish case, $85 to $100 in a base case, and $50 to $70 in a bearish case before dividends.
$110 to $135 before dividends
More likely if organic sales growth stays above the 3% to 5% fiscal 2027 view, Mainland China and travel retail recover faster, adjusted operating margin approaches or exceeds 13%, and the market pays a mid-30s multiple on EPS that approaches $3.80 or higher by fiscal 2028.
$85 to $100 before dividends
More likely if EL delivers the raised fiscal 2026 outlook and the fiscal 2027 preliminary view, adjusted EPS rebuilds near the consensus $3.18, and investors keep the stock near a high-20s forward earnings multiple.
$50 to $70 before dividends
More likely if the August 19, 2026 earnings report disappoints, China, travel retail, or makeup relapse, tariffs and restructuring charges offset savings, securities litigation or the data breach adds risk, and EPS stalls below $2.50.
EL AI technical analysis
EL AI technical analysis is mixed as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis listed a July 31, 2026 close of $83.90, a 50-day moving average near $83.85, a 200-day moving average near $92.29, RSI near 52.70, 20-day average volume near 2.13 million shares, short interest of 7.99 million shares, and a 52-week range of $66.22 to $121.64.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $83.90 | StockAnalysis listed the July 31, 2026 close at $83.90, down 1.15% on the day, with after-hours trading near $83.85. |
| Immediate support | $80 to $83 | This area brackets the 50-day moving average near $83.85 and the recent July lows near $80. |
| Deeper support | $66 to $70 | This zone is near the lower part of the 52-week range, with StockAnalysis listing a 52-week low of $66.22. |
| Near resistance | $90 to $93 | This range overlaps the 200-day moving average near $92.29 and is the first larger trend test. |
| Upper resistance | $95 to $100 | This zone sits near the analyst average target of $95.85 and would need stronger evidence that the turnaround is working. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $83.85, 200-day near $92.29 | Holding above the 50-day average supports the rebound, while reclaiming the 200-day average would improve the long-term trend read. |
| Momentum | RSI near 52.70 | Momentum is neutral to slightly positive, which fits a recovery attempt rather than an overbought breakout. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 2.13 million shares | Volume confirmation matters around the August 19, 2026 earnings report, China demand updates, tariff commentary, and restructuring progress. |
| Volatility | Watch August 19, 2026 earnings | The next estimated earnings report is likely to test FY2026 results, FY2027 margin expectations, China, travel retail, and tariff assumptions. |
| Invalidation | Close below $80, then below $66 | A sustained close below $80 would weaken the rebound. A break below the 52-week low zone would signal that the market no longer trusts the recovery path. |
EL AI trading strategy
The EL AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects chart levels with organic sales growth, adjusted operating margin, China, travel retail, tariffs, restructuring costs, free cash flow, debt, securities litigation, and brand momentum.
Watch for EL to hold above $80 to $83 and reclaim $90 to $93 with improving organic sales, adjusted operating margin near or above the fiscal 2027 view, stronger China and travel retail commentary, and no new tariff or restructuring shock.
A failed move at the 200-day average followed by a close below $80 should reduce trend confidence, especially if management lowers fiscal 2027 margin or sales expectations.
If EL pulls back toward the $66 to $70 support zone without permanent brand impairment, compare the lower price with adjusted EPS recovery, FCF per share, inventory quality, and debt reduction capacity.
Do not treat a lower share price as automatically attractive if the pullback comes from weaker China demand, poor innovation response, rising tariffs, a new litigation or cyber issue, or another margin reset.
Track organic net sales, adjusted gross margin, adjusted operating margin, China retail sales, Asia travel retail, fragrance growth, skin care and makeup trends, inventory, cash flow, debt, dividends, restructuring charges, and litigation and cyber risk.
Position sizing should reflect that consumer staples turnarounds can look inexpensive on recovered earnings before the recovery has been proven in reported results.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Estee Lauder for prestige beauty brands, product quality, emotional identity, skin care routines, fragrance experiences, makeup expression, and premium retail, online, travel retail, and specialty access.
The moat comes from brand heritage, premium positioning, global distribution, category know-how, beauty advisor relationships, product development, and scale. The moat is real but under pressure from faster indie brands, social commerce, local Chinese competitors, and channel mix change.
The thesis fails if brand heat fades, China and travel retail do not recover, Beauty Reimagined and PRGP savings are absorbed by tariffs and reinvestment, makeup and skin care stay weak, debt limits flexibility, or securities litigation and the data breach add cost and distraction.
Stephane de La Faverie has delivered a return to organic growth, raised fiscal 2026 guidance, and set a preliminary fiscal 2027 view of 3% to 5% growth with a 12.5% to 13.0% adjusted operating margin. The test now is execution across innovation, cost savings, and China.
Prestige beauty still benefits from premiumization, fragrance interest, skin care routines, social discovery, and emerging-market demand. The offset is that beauty cycles are trend-driven, digital acquisition is expensive, and China, travel retail, department stores, and tariffs can change quickly.
At $83.90, EL is priced for a successful turnaround rather than distress. Margin of safety improves if adjusted EPS, free cash flow, and operating margin rebuild without another revenue reset. It weakens if the stock keeps a forward multiple near 28x while the recovery stays mixed.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $83.90 July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis EL quote | Aug 1, 2026 |
| Market cap and shares | $30.35 billion market cap, 361.79 million shares | StockAnalysis EL statistics | Aug 1, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $14.326 billion, cross-checked with StockAnalysis and the FY2025 release | Estee Lauder FY2025 results | Aug 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net loss | $1.133 billion net loss, cross-checked with StockAnalysis | Estee Lauder FY2025 results | Aug 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $3.126 billion cash, $9.300 billion total debt, $6.174 billion net debt on the TTM balance sheet | StockAnalysis EL balance sheet | Aug 1, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $1.285 billion FCF, $3.55 FCF per share, 4.23% FCF yield | StockAnalysis EL cash flow | Aug 1, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 net sales | $3.712 billion net sales, up 5% as reported and 2% organic | Estee Lauder Q3 FY2026 results | Aug 2, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 adjusted operating margin | 15.0%, up from 11.4% in the prior-year quarter | Estee Lauder Q3 FY2026 results | Aug 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance | $2.35 to $2.45 adjusted diluted EPS, raised from $2.05 to $2.25 | Estee Lauder Q3 FY2026 outlook | Aug 2, 2026 |
| FY2027 preliminary view | 3% to 5% net sales growth, 12.5% to 13.0% adjusted operating margin | Estee Lauder Q3 FY2026 outlook | Aug 2, 2026 |
| Technical levels | 50-day MA $83.85, 200-day MA $92.29, RSI 52.70, 20-day average volume 2.13 million, short interest 7.99 million | StockAnalysis EL statistics | Aug 1, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy, 28 analysts, average target $95.85, range $70 to $125 | StockAnalysis EL forecast | Jul 28, 2026 |
This EL AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong if earnings, consumer demand, tariffs, China, travel retail, restructuring costs, litigation, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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