Ulta Beauty, Inc. research snapshot
ULTA AI stock analysis currently reads Ulta Beauty, Inc. as a high-quality specialty beauty retailer with a strong first quarter fiscal 2026 beat, raised full year EPS guidance, deep loyalty engagement, and improving short-term price momentum, while the stock still trades below its 200-day moving average. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, the July 31, 2026 close was $512.83, market capitalization was about $22.05 billion, and the main research question was whether the recovery from the $443.60 52-week low can turn into a confirmed uptrend after the August 27 earnings report. This page uses scenario analysis, not a certain price prediction, and it is informational research rather than investment advice.
Current price
$512.83
Market cap
$22.05 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
High-quality beauty retailer with improving near-term momentum
Trend status
Fundamentals strong, technical trend improving but below the 200-day average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Ulta Beauty is the largest U.S. specialty beauty retailer, combining mass and prestige cosmetics, fragrance, skincare, haircare, salon services, ecommerce, and 1,608 company-operated stores. Q1 fiscal 2026 net sales grew 11.1% and comparable sales grew 5.3%. | High |
| Moat | The moat is built on brand access, store reach, loyalty data, beauty discovery, and vendor relevance. Switching costs are moderate, and Sephora, Amazon, Walmart, Target, and brand-owned direct channels keep pressure on the moat. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Kecia Steelman has long operating history at Ulta and is executing the strategy, share buybacks, international expansion through Space NK, and digital growth. Ulta returned $555 million in Q1 fiscal 2026 and named Kelly Garcia CTO effective August 31. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Fiscal 2025 (ended January 31, 2026) revenue rose 9.7% to $12.39 billion with net income of about $1.15 billion. Q1 fiscal 2026 lifted gross margin to 40.1% and operating income 11.6%, and management raised the fiscal 2026 EPS outlook. | High |
| Valuation | Using the $512.83 close and $26.66 TTM EPS, the verified TTM P/E is 19.24x, forward P/E is 17.33x, and FCF yield is 5.13%. The 27-analyst consensus is Buy with an average target of $623.42. | High for math, medium for forward value |
| Technical trend | The technical picture improved from early July. The stock reclaimed the 50-day moving average near $479.09 with a 14-day RSI of 65.46, but it remains below the 200-day moving average near $554.76, so the longer-term trend is not yet confirmed. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium because the balance sheet is manageable and cash generation is strong, but competition, tariffs, inventory, shrink, and discretionary demand can reset estimates. Short interest was about 5.72% of shares outstanding. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High confidence for filings, company releases, market cap math, valuation math, and Q1 operating data. Lower confidence for consumer beauty demand timing and chart behavior after the data cutoff. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. ULTA is a real quality business with improving momentum, but the stock still needs to hold the 50-day average and deliver an August 27 earnings result that keeps fiscal 2026 guidance intact. | Medium |
ULTA AI stock forecast
The ULTA AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $512.83 close and the company fiscal 2026 EPS outlook of $28.36 to $28.80. The bullish case requires sustained comparable sales growth, stable beauty demand, gross margin resilience, and a recovery above the 200-day moving average. The base case assumes guidance is met and valuation stays disciplined. The bearish case assumes weaker discretionary spending, heavier promotions, or another leg down in the stock.
$620.00 to $740.00
More likely if Q1 strength continues, fiscal 2026 EPS lands near the high end of the $28.36 to $28.80 range, loyalty engagement stays strong, the Bath & Body Works partnership and Space NK integration work, and the market restores a premium retailer multiple.
$540.00 to $610.00
More likely if sales growth stays near the 6% to 7% outlook, EPS compounds in line with guidance, and the stock earns a mid-to-high teens forward earnings multiple, consistent with the analyst consensus target near $623.
$420.00 to $500.00
More likely if comparable sales fade toward 2.5%, promotions rise, tariffs or shrink pressure gross margin, competition takes share, or the stock cannot hold the 50-day moving average after the data cutoff.
ULTA AI technical analysis
ULTA AI technical analysis starts from the $512.83 close on July 31, 2026, the $479.09 50-day moving average, the $554.76 200-day moving average, and the $443.60 52-week low. Price is above the 50-day average but below the 200-day average, so short-term momentum is improving while the longer-term trend is not confirmed. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, support, resistance, moving averages, RSI, and volume should be confirmed in a live charting tool before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $512.83 | Close used for this page as of July 31, 2026, the last trading day before the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. |
| 52-week range | $443.60 to $714.97 | The stock set the low in mid-July 2026 and has bounced roughly 16% off it, so the range shows a sharp drawdown followed by a recovery. |
| Near support | $479.09 area | This is the 50-day moving average. Price is above it, and holding it keeps the short-term recovery setup intact. |
| Major support | $443.60 | The 52-week low. A sustained break below it would reset the chart and point to renewed distribution. |
| Near resistance | $554.76 | The 200-day moving average. A reclaim would shift the longer-term trend toward neutral or bullish. |
| Upper resistance | $600.00 to $635.00 | The analyst target zone. The average target is $623.42, with recent individual targets from roughly $550 to $715. |
| Momentum | Improving | The 14-day RSI is 65.46, positive directional index is above negative directional index, and price is above the 50-day moving average, though RSI is nearing overbought. |
| Volume | Confirm live | Latest volume of 511,280 compares with a 20-day average near 546,650. Volume should be checked against the average before trading any reversal or breakdown setup. |
| Volatility | Medium monitoring priority | Average true range is about $14 per day, or near 2.7%, and the August 27 earnings report is the next scheduled catalyst. |
| Invalidation | Failed hold of $479.09 or a break of $460 to $470 | A sustained close below the 50-day moving average after this bounce would weaken the short-term recovery and any mean-reversion setup. |
ULTA AI trading strategy
The ULTA AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a profitable beauty retailer with strong fundamentals and a recovering short-term chart. It is not personalized advice. Any setup should be paired with position sizing, stop levels, and fresh checks of filings, guidance, and live price action.
Wait for ULTA to hold above the 50-day moving average near $479.09, then watch for a sustained move above the 200-day moving average near $554.76 with improving volume, ideally after the August 27 earnings report.
A renewed close below the 50-day moving average or a break of the $460 to $470 zone should invalidate the setup.
If ULTA pulls back toward the $479 to $490 area while Q1 strength remains intact, compare the drawdown with gross margin, comparable sales, inventory, loyalty data, and buyback activity before treating it as a reversion opportunity.
Do not average down without a predefined maximum loss and a fresh review of whether fiscal 2026 EPS guidance of $28.36 to $28.80 is still credible.
Track the evidence that matters most for Ulta Beauty: comparable sales, gross margin, inventory turns, loyalty member engagement, Bath & Body Works partnership traction, Space NK performance, and share repurchases.
Reduce confidence when price strength is driven only by broad retail rallies without matching operating evidence.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Ulta Beauty for convenient beauty discovery, broad brand assortment, salon services, loyalty rewards, and the ability to shop prestige, mass, wellness, and fragrance in one retail ecosystem, with more than 95% of sales coming from loyalty members.
The moat is strongest in store reach, brand relationships, loyalty data, and category breadth. It is weaker in switching costs because customers can also buy through Sephora, Amazon, Walmart, Target, department stores, and brand-owned sites.
The thesis can fail if beauty demand slows, vendors prioritize direct channels, promotions rise, inventory turns weaker, shrink returns, tariffs pressure margins, or younger consumers move to competing discovery platforms.
Kecia Steelman became CEO in January 2025 after multiple Ulta operating roles and raised fiscal 2026 EPS guidance after a strong Q1. The key judgment is whether the team can keep the store model productive while expanding digital, marketplace, international, and vendor services, with a new CTO starting August 31.
Beauty remains a durable consumer category, but the channel mix is shifting toward omnichannel discovery, social commerce, marketplace models, and AI-driven personalization. Ulta is advantaged but not insulated.
A verified 19.24x TTM P/E, 17.33x forward P/E, and 5.13% FCF yield are reasonable for a quality retailer, but margin of safety depends on holding fiscal 2026 EPS guidance and building on the recovery above the 50-day moving average.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ULTA price | $512.83 | StockAnalysis ULTA overview | July 31, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $22.05 billion | StockAnalysis market cap page | July 31, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 42.99 million | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 fiscal 2026 net sales | $3.1639 billion, up 11.1% | Ulta Beauty Q1 fiscal 2026 results | June 2, 2026 |
| Q1 fiscal 2026 comparable sales | +5.3% | Ulta Beauty Q1 fiscal 2026 results | June 2, 2026 |
| Q1 fiscal 2026 operating income | $448.3 million, or 14.2% of net sales | Ulta Beauty Q1 fiscal 2026 results | June 2, 2026 |
| Q1 fiscal 2026 diluted EPS | $7.74, up 15.5% | Ulta Beauty Q1 fiscal 2026 results | June 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 EPS guidance | $28.36 to $28.80, raised | Ulta Beauty Q1 fiscal 2026 results | June 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2025 net sales (ended January 31, 2026) | $12.3928 billion, up 9.7% | Ulta Beauty fiscal 2025 results | July 8, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2025 net income | $1.153 billion | Ulta Beauty fiscal 2025 10-K | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and short-term investments | $221.3 million at Q1 fiscal 2026 | Ulta Beauty Q1 fiscal 2026 results | June 2, 2026 |
| Short-term debt | $144.9 million at Q1 fiscal 2026 | Ulta Beauty Q1 fiscal 2026 results | June 2, 2026 |
| Q1 fiscal 2026 share repurchases | $555.0 million for 958,323 shares | Ulta Beauty Q1 fiscal 2026 results | June 2, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $1.13 billion | StockAnalysis cash flow statement | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day MA $479.09, 200-day MA $554.76, RSI 65.46 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy, average target $623.42 across 27 analysts | StockAnalysis forecast | July 29, 2026 |
| New CTO appointment | Kelly Garcia effective August 31, 2026 | Business Wire via StockAnalysis news | July 14, 2026 |
This ULTA AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong.
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