Bullish case
$700.00 to $860.00
More likely if Q1 strength continues, FY2026 EPS grows near the high end of guidance, loyalty engagement remains strong, Space NK integration works, and the market restores a premium retailer multiple.
Ulta Beauty, Inc. research snapshot
ULTA AI Stock Analysis
ULTA AI stock analysis currently reads Ulta Beauty, Inc. as a high-quality specialty beauty retailer with resilient Q1 fiscal 2026 growth, strong loyalty economics, and meaningful buyback support, but with a weak technical setup after the share price fell below key moving averages. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, the quoted price was $445.82, market capitalization was about $19.17 billion, and the main research question was whether 6% to 7% fiscal 2026 sales growth can offset beauty retail competition, tariff risk, and lower market confidence. This page uses scenario analysis, not a certain price prediction, and it is informational research rather than investment advice.
Current price
$445.82
Market cap
$19.17 billion
AI score
67 / 100
Rating
High-quality beauty retailer with bearish price momentum
Trend status
Fundamentals improving, technical trend weak
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. ULTA has current SEC filings, company earnings releases, annual reports, quote data, third-party financial databases, and active analyst coverage.
- bias Check
- The AI bias risk is consensus anchoring. Strong Q1 numbers can make the business look too simple, while a falling stock chart can make the market signal look final. The analysis separates verified operating data from judgment about competitive pressure and valuation.
- ai Confidence
- High data confidence
- investment Certainty
- Medium. The business quality and source data are strong, but investment certainty is limited by discretionary spending risk, competition from Sephora, Amazon, Walmart, Target, and specialty brands, and a bearish chart structure.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Ulta Beauty combines mass, prestige, salon, wellness, ecommerce, and more than 1,500 stores. Q1 fiscal 2026 net sales grew 11.1% and comparable sales grew 5.3%. | High |
| Moat | The moat is built on brand access, store reach, loyalty data, beauty discovery, and vendor relevance. Switching costs are moderate, and direct brand channels keep pressure on the moat. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Kecia Steelman has long operating history at Ulta and is executing the Unleashed strategy, buybacks, international expansion through Space NK, and digital growth. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Fiscal 2025 revenue rose 9.7% to $12.39 billion, while FY2025 net income fell to about $1.15 billion. Q1 FY2026 showed improved gross margin and operating income growth. | High |
| Valuation | Using the $445.82 quote and $26.67 TTM EPS, the verified TTM P/E is 16.72x. That is not distressed, but it is lower than many high-quality growth retailers. | High for math, medium for forward value |
| Technical trend | The technical picture is weak. Investing.com showed a daily Strong Sell signal, and AltIndex placed the 50-day moving average below the 200-day moving average. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium because the balance sheet is manageable and cash generation is strong, but competition, tariffs, inventory, shrink, and discretionary demand can reset estimates. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High confidence for filings, company releases, market cap math, valuation math, and Q1 operating data. Lower confidence for consumer beauty demand timing. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. ULTA is a real quality business, but the stock still needs live chart confirmation and evidence that FY2026 guidance remains achievable. | Medium |
ULTA AI stock forecast
ULTA AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The ULTA AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $445.82 quote and the company updated fiscal 2026 EPS outlook of $28.36 to $28.80. The bullish case requires continued comparable sales growth, stable beauty category demand, gross margin resilience, and a recovery above major moving averages. The base case assumes guidance is met but valuation remains disciplined. The bearish case assumes weaker traffic, heavier promotions, or a further multiple reset.
Base case
$520.00 to $580.00
More likely if sales growth stays near the 6% to 7% outlook, EPS compounds at a mid-single-digit to high-single-digit pace, and the stock earns a mid-to-high teens earnings multiple.
Bearish case
$350.00 to $420.00
More likely if comparable sales fade, promotions rise, tariffs or shrink pressure gross margin, competition takes share, or the stock cannot regain the 50-day moving average after the data cutoff.
ULTA AI technical analysis
ULTA AI Technical Analysis
ULTA AI technical analysis starts from the $445.82 quote, the $450.75 support reference from AltIndex, the 50-day moving average near $477.70, and the 200-day moving average near $569.00 around the July 8, 2026 cutoff. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, support, resistance, moving averages, RSI, and volume should be confirmed in a live charting tool before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $445.82 | Quote used for this page as of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $450.75 area | AltIndex identified this recent support area from six-month closing prices. The quoted price was slightly below it, so confirmation matters. |
| Near resistance | $477.70 to $569.00 | The lower bound is near the 50-day moving average and the upper bound is near the 200-day moving average. A reclaim would improve the trend read. |
| 50-day moving average | $477.70 | AltIndex reported the 50-day average below the 200-day average, which indicates bearish intermediate momentum. |
| 200-day moving average | $569.00 | The price was materially below the longer-term average at the data cutoff, keeping the trend under pressure. |
| Momentum | Weak to neutral | Investing.com reported daily Strong Sell technicals with 14-day RSI near 38.99, while AltIndex described RSI near neutral but MACD below signal. |
| Volume | Confirm live | Volume should be checked against the 50-day average before trading any reversal or breakdown setup. |
| Volatility | Medium monitoring priority | Beauty retail sentiment, tariff news, earnings revisions, and buyback cadence can move the stock quickly. |
| Invalidation | Failed reclaim of $450.75 or a lower low | A sustained break below the support area without quick recovery would weaken any mean-reversion setup. |
ULTA AI trading strategy
ULTA AI Trading Strategy Framework
The ULTA AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a profitable beauty retailer with improving fundamentals and weak price momentum. It is not personalized advice. Any setup should be paired with position sizing, stop levels, and fresh checks of filings, guidance, and live price action.
Trend-following setup
Wait for ULTA to reclaim the 50-day moving average with improving volume, then watch whether the stock can hold above that level through the next earnings or guidance update.
A failed reclaim or renewed close below the recent support area should invalidate the setup.
Mean-reversion setup
If ULTA stabilizes below the 50-day average while Q1 strength remains intact, compare the drawdown with gross margin, comparable sales, inventory, loyalty data, and buyback activity.
Do not average down without a predefined maximum loss and a fresh review of whether fiscal 2026 guidance is still credible.
Fundamental monitor
Track the evidence that matters most for Ulta Beauty: comparable sales, gross margin, loyalty member engagement, merchandise mix, store productivity, Space NK performance, and share repurchases.
Reduce confidence when price strength is driven only by broad retail rallies without matching operating evidence.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Customers pay Ulta Beauty for convenient beauty discovery, broad brand assortment, salon services, loyalty rewards, and the ability to shop prestige, mass, wellness, and fragrance in one retail ecosystem.
Moat
The moat is strongest in store reach, brand relationships, loyalty data, and category breadth. It is weaker in switching costs because customers can also buy through Sephora, Amazon, Walmart, Target, department stores, and brand-owned sites.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis can fail if beauty demand slows, vendors prioritize direct channels, promotions rise, inventory turns weaker, shrink returns, tariffs pressure margins, or younger consumers move to competing discovery platforms.
Management
Kecia Steelman became CEO in January 2025 after multiple Ulta operating roles. The key judgment is whether the team can keep the store model productive while expanding digital, marketplace, international, and vendor services.
Industry trend
Beauty remains a durable consumer category, but the channel mix is shifting toward omnichannel discovery, social commerce, marketplace models, and strong retail media data. Ulta is advantaged but not insulated.
Valuation and margin of safety
A verified 16.72x TTM P/E and 5.69% FCF yield are reasonable for a quality retailer, but margin of safety depends on holding FY2026 EPS guidance and avoiding a sustained technical breakdown.
Source-backed data
ULTA Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ULTA price | $445.82 | StockAnalysis market cap page | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $19.17 billion | StockAnalysis market cap page | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 42.99 million | StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2026 net sales | $3.1639 billion, up 11.1% | Ulta Beauty Q1 FY2026 results | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2026 comparable sales | +5.3% | Ulta Beauty Q1 FY2026 results | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2026 operating income | $448.3 million, or 14.2% of net sales | Ulta Beauty Q1 FY2026 results | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net sales | $12.3928 billion, up 9.7% | Ulta Beauty FY2025 results | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $1.153 billion | Ulta Beauty FY2025 10-K | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and short-term investments | $221.3 million at Q1 FY2026 | Ulta Beauty Q1 FY2026 results | July 8, 2026 |
| Short-term debt | $144.9 million at Q1 FY2026 | Ulta Beauty Q1 FY2026 results | July 8, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $1.131 billion | StockAnalysis cash flow statement | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical signal | Daily Strong Sell, 14-day RSI 38.986 | Investing.com technical analysis | July 8, 2026 |
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This ULTA AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong.