e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. research snapshot
ELF AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads e.l.f. Beauty as a high-growth mass beauty portfolio that has re-rated sharply off its 52-week low. The stock closed at $82.89 on July 31, 2026, with a market capitalization near $4.89 billion, re-verified as $82.89 times 58.94 million shares outstanding per StockAnalysis.com. FY2026 (ended March 31, 2026) revenue rose 24.59% to $1.636 billion, marking the 29th consecutive quarter of net sales growth, but GAAP net income fell to $26.32 million on large Q4 one-time charges, while adjusted EPS reached $3.13 and free cash flow reached $190 million. The stock now trades above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, helped by analyst target upgrades in late July, the $58.5 million tariff refund tailwind, and momentum in the rhode, Naturium, and e.l.f. Hair franchises. Offsetting factors include a forward P/E near 25x, an average analyst price target of $78.81 below the current price, soft near-term consumption, a GAAP loss quarter, and celebrity-brand concentration risk in rhode. This page uses scenario ranges and source checks, not a certain stock price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$82.89
Market cap
$4.89 billion
AI score
67 / 100
Rating
High-growth beauty portfolio, recovery momentum with valuation watch
Trend status
Above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages after a sharp recovery from the 52-week low
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | e.l.f. Beauty runs a diversified mass beauty portfolio across e.l.f. Cosmetics, e.l.f. SKIN, Naturium, and rhode, with 29 consecutive quarters of net sales growth, gross margin near 70.7%, and a value-led model that wins in a pressured consumer. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Moat draws from brand affinity with Gen Z, Alpha, and Millennials, a roughly $7 average retail price versus about $11 for mass peers, speed-to-market innovation, and a disruptive marketing engine, but switching costs are low and larger rivals can copy value plays. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Tarang Amin has led the company for over 12 years, grants equity to every employee, has built and integrated rhode and Naturium with a founder-led model, and balances brand investment with a $500 million buyback authorization. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2026 revenue rose 24.59% to $1.636 billion, adjusted EPS reached $3.13, and free cash flow reached $190 million, but GAAP net income fell to $26.32 million on large Q4 one-time charges and a Q4 GAAP loss of $49.37 million. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $82.89, ELF trades at about 25x forward earnings of $3.31, 2.99x sales, and 25.7x trailing free cash flow, with a PEG near 2.36, while the average analyst target of $78.81 sits below the price. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The stock closed at $82.89 above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 64 and 14-day ADX near 31 confirming a recovery trend, after a sharp bounce from the $48.82 52-week low. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are soft consumer spending and unit declines, a GAAP loss quarter and one-time charge volatility, rhode celebrity-brand durability, competition from L Oreal, Estee Lauder, and Coty, tariff and inflation exposure, elevated short interest near 13%, and a premium multiple. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for price, market cap, FY2026 financials, balance sheet, valuation, and technical data that cross-validated; medium for forward estimates because consumer, rhode, and tariff assumptions are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low to medium certainty. The page frames scenarios and monitoring rules, not a buy or sell instruction. | Low-medium |
ELF AI stock forecast
The ELF AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $82.89 and the FY2027 adjusted EPS consensus near $3.31. The three-year framework produced a bearish area near $50 to $55, a base area near $88 to $95, and a bullish area near $135 to $145, using adjusted EPS growth of 2%, 8%, and 12% and exit multiples of 15x, 22x, and 30x. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$135 to $145
More likely if e.l.f. Beauty sustains double-digit revenue growth, rhode scales into Europe and beyond without losing momentum, Naturium and e.l.f. Hair add volume, the $58.5 million tariff refund funds unit growth, gross margin holds near 70%, and the market awards a premium forward multiple near 30x.
$88 to $95
More likely if revenue compounds in the low double digits, adjusted EPS grows toward the $3.43 to $3.67 path, one-time charges normalize, free cash flow stays near $190 million, and the stock holds a 22x to 25x forward multiple.
$50 to $55
More likely if consumption stays weak and units keep declining, rhode momentum fades, competition intensifies, tariffs or input costs pressure margin, GAAP charges continue, or the multiple compresses toward 15x, closer to the low analyst target of $50.
ELF AI technical analysis
ELF AI technical analysis shows a recovery trend as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $82.89 on July 31, 2026, above its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 63.9 and 14-day ADX near 30.9, after bouncing from the $48.82 52-week low. The next overhead test is the round $85 to $90 zone, with the $95 to $100 area from recent analyst targets above it.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $82.89 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close, with after-hours at $82.32. The next earnings date is August 5, 2026. |
| 5-day moving average | $82.83 | Barchart reported the 5-day moving average near $82.83, roughly at the current price, so the immediate trend is intact but not extended. |
| 20-day moving average | $77.57 | Barchart reported the 20-day moving average near $77.57, a first pullback support and the base of the current short-term uptrend. |
| 200-day moving average | $77.49 | Barchart reported the 200-day trend line near $77.49, very close to the 20-day average, forming a support cluster near $77.50. |
| 50-day moving average | $67.19 | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart both placed the 50-day moving average near $67.19, well below price and confirming the recovery. |
| 100-day moving average | $66.02 | Barchart reported the 100-day moving average near $66.02, confirming the medium-term bottoming. |
| Near support | $77.50 to $78 | The 20-day and 200-day moving averages near $77.50 form the first support zone on pullbacks. |
| Key support | $74 to $76 | The late-July consolidation area and the $75 round number provide secondary support. |
| Major support | $67 to $70 | The 50-day moving average near $67.19 and the $70 psychological level define major support. |
| Near resistance | $85 to $86 | The round $85 level and the recent intraday high near $84.11 cap the immediate upside. |
| Key resistance | $90 | The $90 round number and the pre-consensus target zone create overhead. |
| Major resistance | $95 to $100 | Recent analyst targets near $95 to $100 and the psychological $100 level are the main overhead. |
| Momentum | RSI near 64, ADX near 31 | 14-day RSI was near 63.91 and 14-day ADX near 30.93 on Barchart, showing a strong but not overbought trending recovery. |
| Volume | About 2.2 million average shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 2.26 million shares and StockAnalysis.com near 2.22 million, useful for judging breakout quality. |
| Volatility | Elevated near earnings | Barchart reported 14-day historic volatility near 56.9%, so position sizing should account for larger swings, especially around the August 5 earnings date. |
| Invalidation | Close below $77.50 | A decisive close below the 20-day and 200-day support cluster near $77.50 would weaken the recovery trend; a close below $67 would turn it bearish. |
ELF AI trading strategy
The ELF AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a high-growth beauty stock in a confirmed recovery. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, filings, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level, with the August 5, 2026 Q1 FY2027 report as the next catalyst.
Watch for ELF to hold above $77.50 and to build volume on a move toward the $85 to $90 zone. A sustained break of $90 would signal the recovery is extending toward $95 to $100, with confirmation from Q1 FY2027 revenue and margin commentary on August 5.
A daily close below the $77.50 support cluster, or a weak Q1 report that stalls the recovery, should trigger a stop and review.
If ELF pulls back toward the $74 to $77 support zone without new earnings or guidance damage, compare the price reaction with rhode momentum, e.l.f. category consumption data, and analyst updates before acting.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule, because a soft consumer tape or a weak rhode print can turn a support zone into a trap.
Track quarterly revenue growth, gross margin, adjusted operating margin, rhode and Naturium sell-through, e.l.f. Hair adoption, unit versus price contribution, tariff refund receipts, buyback pace, and short interest.
Reduce confidence if unit growth keeps falling, gross margin contracts, rhode momentum decelerates, or adjusted EPS growth depends mainly on one-time items rather than demand.
Investment research summary
e.l.f. Beauty sells prestige-quality cosmetics, skincare, and now hair care at value prices, making beauty accessible for every eye, lip, and face. Customers pay for trend relevance, price accessibility, and a fast, community-driven brand model.
The moat is real but narrower than it appears. It rests on brand affinity with Gen Z, Alpha, and Millennials, a roughly $7 average retail price, speed-to-market innovation, and disruptive marketing, but cosmetics have low switching costs and large rivals can invest heavily in value plays.
The thesis fails if consumption keeps falling and units decline, if rhode momentum fades after the celebrity halo normalizes, if larger competitors defend shelf space with value pricing, if tariffs and input costs keep pressuring margin, if one-time GAAP charges continue, or if the premium multiple compresses toward analyst targets below the price.
Tarang Amin, CEO for over 12 years, has delivered 29 straight quarters of net sales growth, built an equity-for-everyone culture, integrated rhode and Naturium with a founder-led model, and uses a $500 million buyback program opportunistically while investing in brand white space.
Mass beauty benefits from long-duration demand for affordable self-expression and trading down from prestige in a pressured consumer. International is still only about 20% of sales versus roughly 70% for mature peers, leaving a long runway for the e.l.f., rhode, and Naturium franchises.
At about 25x forward earnings and near 26x trailing free cash flow, ELF is priced for continued double-digit growth. The margin of safety is thinner than it was near the 52-week low because the stock has already recovered and the average analyst target of $78.81 sits below the current price.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ELF price | $82.89 at the July 31, 2026 close, $82.32 after hours | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.89 billion, computed as $82.89 x 58.94 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis.com quote and share statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 58.94 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 revenue | $1.636 billion, up 24.59% from $1.314 billion | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 GAAP net income | $26.32 million, EPS $0.44 diluted, down 76.52% | StockAnalysis.com income statement | August 3, 2026 |
| Q4 FY2026 results | Revenue $449.29 million up 35.07% year over year, GAAP net loss of $49.37 million, EPS -$0.84, driven by about $57.65 million of other operating expenses and higher interest expense | StockAnalysis.com quarterly income statement | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 and FY2027 adjusted EPS | FY2026 adjusted EPS of $3.13, FY2027 consensus of $3.31 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 28, 2026 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | $289.69 million as of March 31, 2026, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL (289685000) | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| Total debt | $909.28 million as of March 31, 2026 (current portion $30 million, long-term debt $809.35 million, long-term leases $69.93 million) | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Net cash position | -$619.59 million (net debt) as of March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Free cash flow (TTM) | $190.06 million, with operating cash flow of $212.51 million and capital expenditures of $22.45 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation check | Trailing PE 188.39, forward PE 25.06, PS 2.99, PB 4.33, P/FCF 25.70, PEG 2.36 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $78.81 across 18 analysts, low $50 and high $100, median $82.5 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | July 28, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 10 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 7 Hold, 0 Sell out of 18 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 28, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Jefferies $72 to $100 on July 28, Goldman Sachs $89 to $95 on July 27, Morgan Stanley Hold $59 on July 22, TD Cowen $65 to $85 on July 21, Canaccord $97 on July 20, UBS $60 to $80, JPMorgan $80 to $94, Raymond James $85 to $87, Citi $87 to $92, Deutsche Bank $62 to $64, Bernstein Market Perform $60 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and news feed | July 28, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $48.82 to $150.99, 52-week change of -32.76% | StockAnalysis.com quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 7.64 million shares short, 12.97% of shares outstanding, 13.34% of float, 2.33 days to cover, down from 10.95 million last month | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Forward estimates | FY2027 revenue of $1.86 billion up 13.75% and adjusted EPS of $3.31 up 5.69%; FY2028 revenue of $2.00 billion and adjusted EPS of $3.67 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 28, 2026 |
| Tariff refund | About $58.5 million of tariff refunds expected, not included in FY2027 guidance, and management says it will fund unit growth and selective price reductions | StockAnalysis.com transcript of the June 4, 2026 dbAccess conference | June 4, 2026 |
| Portfolio momentum | rhode reached about $390 million annualized FY2026 net sales in less than 20% of Sephora doors with the strongest Sephora launch on record; Naturium more than doubled to over $250 million global retail; e.l.f. Hair launched in June 2026 | StockAnalysis.com conference transcript and Business Wire | June 4, 2026 |
| Buyback capacity | About $150 million used of a $500 million authorization, with about $350 million remaining, including about $50 million repurchased recently | StockAnalysis.com transcript of the June 4, 2026 dbAccess conference | June 4, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $82.83, 20-day near $77.57, 50-day near $67.19, 100-day near $66.02, 200-day near $77.49, 14-day RSI near 63.91, 14-day ADX near 30.93, 14-day historic volatility near 56.91% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Next earnings date | Q1 FY2027 results scheduled for August 5, 2026 after market close | e.l.f. Beauty press release via Business Wire | July 22, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell ELF stock. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data, technical snapshots, and stated assumptions as of the data cutoff date and may be wrong. Always verify current filings, prices, risks, and personal suitability before making financial decisions.
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