Deckers Outdoor Corporation research snapshot
DECK AI stock analysis reads Deckers Outdoor Corporation as a high-quality consumer discretionary business whose HOKA and UGG brands still command full-price demand, supported by a record fiscal Q1 2027, a raised fiscal 2027 EPS guide of $7.35 to $7.50, roughly $1.1 billion of net cash, and a free cash flow yield near 8%. The stock has fallen to $96.88 at the July 31, 2026 close and trades at about 13.7 times trailing earnings and 12.7 times forward earnings, but the market is now weighting Q2 gross margin pressure from tariffs and freight, conservative near-term guidance, and a technical breakdown below every major moving average. The DECK AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction, and should be used as an information tool rather than investment advice.
Current price
$96.88
Market cap
$13.19 billion verified market cap
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
High-quality brand portfolio at a lower valuation with tariff and Q2 margin overhang
Trend status
Bearish short-term setup, price below the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages with RSI near 40
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Customers pay for HOKA performance footwear, UGG lifestyle products, and other brands through wholesale and direct channels. TTM revenue reached $5.53 billion with a 57.8% gross margin and a 42.6% return on equity. | High |
| Moat | Brand desire, product innovation, selective distribution, full-price demand, international runway, and scale support the moat, but footwear brands are never immune to consumer taste shifts and tariff cost pressure. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Stefano Caroti and CFO Steve Fasching are balancing brand investment, tariff management, record cash generation, and an aggressive buyback program with about $4.7 billion still authorized. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q1 FY2027 revenue rose 5.7% to a record $1.02 billion, HOKA grew 8%, UGG grew 5%, diluted EPS was $0.94, and fiscal 2027 EPS guidance was raised to $7.35 to $7.50. | High |
| Valuation | At $96.88, DECK trades near 13.66x trailing earnings, 12.68x forward earnings, 2.39x sales, 5.75x book, and 12.02x free cash flow, with net cash of about $1.13 billion. | High |
| Technical trend | The setup is bearish short term. DECK closed at $96.88 on July 31, below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 40 and ADX near 15. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are Q2 gross margin pressure from tariffs and freight, HOKA growth deceleration, fashion-cycle reversals, weaker U.S. discretionary demand, wholesale execution, inventory errors, and the analyst downgrade cycle that followed the Q1 report. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because company releases, StockAnalysis, and Barchart cross-check within a narrow range. Forecast confidence is lower because consumer brands can re-rate quickly and the near-term margin setup is uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The business is high quality and the multiple is lower than a year ago, but the near-term margin setup and downtrend mean the page offers a research framework and scenario ranges, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
DECK AI stock forecast
The DECK AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $96.88 and TTM EPS of $7.09. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $70, a base area near $107, and a bullish area near $159 over three years, using EPS growth of 3%, 8%, and 12% and exit multiples of 9x, 12x, and 16x.
$145 to $170
More likely if HOKA accelerates in the second half as planned, UGG holds mid-single-digit growth, gross margin stays better than 56.5%, tariff refunds arrive, and investors reward the company with a premium earnings multiple.
$100 to $120
More likely if fiscal 2027 sales land near the $5.86 billion to $5.91 billion guide, EPS lands near the raised $7.35 to $7.50 range, gross margin holds near 56.5%, and the stock trades near a 12x to 14x forward multiple.
$65 to $85
More likely if Q2 gross margin pressure from tariffs and freight continues, HOKA growth slows further, U.S. consumer demand weakens, or the stock breaks below the $78.91 52-week low, which matches low analyst targets near $85.
DECK AI technical analysis
DECK AI technical analysis uses the August 2, 2026 data cutoff and the July 31, 2026 close from StockAnalysis and Barchart. The picture is bearish short term: the stock closed at $96.88 below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 40 and ADX near 15, so buyers have not yet reclaimed control.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $96.88 | StockAnalysis reported DECK at $96.88 at the July 31, 2026 close, which is the price reference for the page. |
| Immediate support | $95 | A round-number shelf that also contains the recent intraday lows near $96.82 to $97.00 from the July 31 session. |
| Deeper support | $85 to $90 | The low end of analyst targets, including the Wells Fargo $85 target, forms a psychological zone ahead of the 52-week low. |
| 52-week low | $78.91 | The major downside reference from StockAnalysis. A sustained close below it would signal a larger thesis reset. |
| Near resistance | $100 to $103 | The 5-day moving average near $100.35 and the 20-day average near $103.23 from Barchart cap the first bounce. |
| Upside resistance | $106 to $108 | The 50-day average near $105.98 and the 200-day average near $102.18 create a broken-support zone that now caps rallies. |
| Moving averages | 5-day about $100.35, 20-day about $103.23, 50-day about $105.98, 100-day about $104.11, 200-day about $102.18 | All five averages sit above price, confirming a bearish alignment until the stock reclaims them. |
| Momentum | RSI near 40, ADX near 15 | Barchart showed 14-day RSI near 40.12 and 14-day ADX near 14.70 with negative directional index above positive, so momentum is weak and negative. |
| Volume | 2.33 million shares on July 31 versus a 20-day average near 2.2 to 2.3 million | The earnings-week selloff carried above-average volume, which keeps distribution risk elevated until volume dries up. |
| Volatility | ATR near $4.13, historic volatility near 45% | Barchart listed a 14-day ATR near $4.13, about 4.3% of price, and 14-day historic volatility near 45%, so position sizing should allow for wide swings. |
| Invalidation | Close above $103 to $106, or below $95 | A daily close back above the 20-day and 50-day zone would start to repair the trend. A close below $95 then $90 would open the path toward the $78.91 low. |
DECK AI trading strategy
The DECK AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It combines brand-demand evidence, margin and tariff monitoring, valuation discipline, and technical invalidation levels.
Wait for DECK to reclaim and hold the $103 to $106 zone on rising volume, then confirm through Q2 fiscal 2027 results that HOKA, UGG, gross margin, and EPS guidance stay on track.
A failed move back below $95 would keep the downtrend in force and should reduce setup confidence because price would stay under the moving-average cluster.
If DECK stabilizes near $90 to $95 without deterioration in HOKA growth, UGG demand, margin guidance, or inventory quality, compare the reset against 12.7x forward earnings and 12.0x free cash flow.
Do not treat a pullback as benign if tariffs push gross margin below guidance, Q2 EPS misses the $1.73 to $1.78 range, or wholesale demand slows.
Track HOKA and UGG net sales growth, DTC comparable sales, gross margin versus the raised 56.5% guide, Q2 EPS of $1.73 to $1.78, inventory, free cash flow, cash balance, borrowings, and buyback pace.
Position sizing should reflect consumer discretionary cyclicality and the fact that a brand-stock multiple can compress even when reported earnings stay positive.
Investment research summary
Deckers sells performance and lifestyle footwear where customers pay for comfort, brand identity, product innovation, and distribution trust. HOKA provides performance running and outdoor momentum, while UGG provides lifestyle and seasonal brand equity.
The moat is strongest in brand heat, product fit, selective wholesale relationships, DTC data, full-price demand, and international runway. It is weaker than a software moat because footwear preferences can change and competitors can copy silhouettes and cushioning stories.
The thesis fails if HOKA becomes a crowded running-shoe fad, UGG loses cultural relevance, tariffs compress margin more than assumed, wholesale expansion dilutes scarcity, inventory builds, or management repurchases aggressively before a demand slowdown.
Management has created value through brand focus, disciplined distribution, international expansion, high cash conversion, and large repurchases. The key-person risk is lower than founder-led firms, but execution discipline matters because brand momentum can be damaged by over-distribution.
Deckers benefits from long-term demand for athletic comfort, running participation, casual footwear, premium lifestyle products, and international brand adoption. The offset is that apparel and footwear remain discretionary and exposed to tariffs, FX, and fashion cycles.
At about 13.7x trailing earnings and 12.0x free cash flow, DECK is cheaper than most high-quality growth brands, but the stock is in a downtrend. Margin of safety depends on whether EPS growth continues and whether the Q2 margin dip proves temporary.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock price | $96.88 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis | July 31, 2026 |
| Market cap | $13.19 billion, verified as $96.88 x 136.18 million shares with 0.02% deviation | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 136.18 million shares, down 5.72% year over year | StockAnalysis statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 revenue | $1.02 billion, up 5.7%, a record first quarter | Deckers Q1 FY2027 earnings call | July 23, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 HOKA sales | $704 million, up 8% | Deckers Q1 FY2027 earnings call | July 23, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 UGG sales | $278 million, up 5% | Deckers Q1 FY2027 earnings call | July 23, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 EPS | $0.94, up from $0.93, ahead of the $0.88 consensus | Deckers Q1 FY2027 earnings call and TheFly | July 23, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 gross margin | 56.4%, up 60 basis points from 55.8%, with tariffs a negative 150 basis point headwind | Deckers Q1 FY2027 earnings call | July 23, 2026 |
| FY2027 EPS guidance | $7.35 to $7.50, raised from $7.30 to $7.45 | Deckers Q1 FY2027 earnings call | July 23, 2026 |
| FY2027 revenue guidance | $5.86 billion to $5.91 billion, affirmed | Deckers Q1 FY2027 earnings call | July 23, 2026 |
| Balance sheet June 30, 2026 | $1.6 billion cash, $808 million inventory down 5%, no outstanding borrowings | Deckers Q1 FY2027 earnings call | July 23, 2026 |
| FY2026 results | $5.472 billion revenue up 9.8%, HOKA $2.587 billion up 15.9%, UGG $2.739 billion up 8.2%, diluted EPS $7.02 | Deckers FY2026 press release | May 21, 2026 |
| TTM income statement | Revenue $5.527 billion, net income $1.015 billion, EPS $7.09, gross margin 57.8% | StockAnalysis income statement | July 29, 2026 |
| Net cash position | $1.13 billion, calculated as $1.603 billion cash minus $472.33 million total debt | financial_rigor.py exact calculator and StockAnalysis | August 1, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 13.66x PE, 12.68x forward PE, 2.39x sales, 5.75x book, 12.02x free cash flow, 1.77 PEG | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 1, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $122.81 across 26 analysts, low $85, high $184, median $120 | StockAnalysis forecast | July 30, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 8 Strong Buy, 5 Buy, 11 Hold, 0 Sell, 2 Strong Sell | StockAnalysis forecast recommendation trends | July 30, 2026 |
| Post-Q1 target changes | Argus $128, Stifel $133, Barclays $133, Needham $125, Baird $115, Telsey $105, Truist $105, BofA $105, Wells Fargo $85 | StockAnalysis forecast latest forecasts and TheFly | July 30, 2026 |
| Short interest | 5.84 million shares short, 4.29% of shares outstanding, 2.59 days to cover | StockAnalysis statistics short selling | August 1, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day SMA near $105.98, 200-day SMA near $102.18, 14-day RSI near 40.12, 14-day ADX near 14.70 | Barchart and StockAnalysis technical snapshots | July 31, 2026 |
This DECK AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of return. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026, and can be wrong if Deckers growth, margins, tariffs, brand demand, or market valuation changes.
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