ON Semiconductor Corporation research snapshot
ON AI stock analysis currently reads ON Semiconductor as a cyclical recovery case tied to intelligent power, sensing, silicon carbide, automotive electrification, industrial automation, and AI data center power. The page uses scenario ranges rather than a certain price prediction. At the July 8, 2026 cutoff, ON last closed at $91.10, market capitalization was about $35.9 billion using 394.1 million shares, and the main question was whether Q1 2026 recovery signs and the proposed Synaptics acquisition can improve growth without adding too much integration and dilution risk. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$91.10 close on July 7, 2026
Market cap
About $35.9 billion by share-count math
AI score
63 / 100
Rating
Cyclical semiconductor recovery with stronger power and sensing assets, but acquisition and valuation risk are elevated
Trend status
Short-term pullback below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages while still above the 200-day average
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | onsemi sells power, analog, mixed-signal, and image sensing chips used in automotive, industrial, energy infrastructure, data center, medical, aerospace, and IoT systems. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from qualified power and sensing platforms, long automotive and industrial design cycles, silicon carbide know-how, manufacturing process control, and customer switching costs. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Hassane El-Khoury has focused on portfolio discipline, fab optimization, buybacks, and higher-value intelligent power and sensing. The Synaptics deal will test capital allocation and integration discipline. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue fell 15% to $5.995 billion and GAAP net income dropped to $121 million, but Q1 2026 revenue rose 5% year over year to $1.513 billion with non-GAAP EPS of $0.64. | High |
| Valuation | At $91.10, financial_rigor.py calculated 37.34x trailing non-GAAP EPS, 4.92x book value, 30.37x free cash flow per share, 5.76x sales, and no dividend yield. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The stock closed below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages near $110 to $111 after a sharp drop from the June 2026 high, while the 200-day average near $71 remained below price. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because auto and industrial demand, silicon carbide adoption, AI data center expectations, factory utilization, gross margin recovery, and acquisition execution can all move against the thesis. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for reported financials, share count, market-cap math, and current technical snapshots. Lower for forward returns because semiconductor cycles and deal risk can change quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. ON has useful strategic assets, but a durable equity case needs sustained revenue recovery, improving margins, controlled integration costs, and evidence that physical AI demand becomes real revenue. | Medium-low |
ON AI stock forecast
The ON AI stock forecast is scenario-based around the $91.10 cutoff close. The bullish case requires a clean recovery in automotive, industrial, and AI data center power plus credible Synaptics integration. The base case assumes recovery continues but valuation normalizes. The bearish case assumes demand or deal execution disappoints while the market cuts the multiple.
$120 to $140
More likely if Q2 2026 guidance converts into reported growth, AI data center power keeps expanding, gross margin moves toward management targets, silicon carbide wins hold up, and price reclaims the $110 to $111 moving-average resistance zone. financial_rigor.py produced about $140.30 using 18% EPS growth and a 35x terminal P/E over three years.
$75 to $100
More likely if ON grows from the 2025 trough but investors apply a normal mixed-signal semiconductor multiple. The financial_rigor.py base scenario using 10% EPS growth and a 25x terminal P/E produced about $81.20 after three years.
$31 to $60
More likely if auto or industrial demand weakens again, Synaptics adds integration drag, silicon carbide utilization remains low, restructuring charges persist, or price loses the 200-day moving average on heavy volume. financial_rigor.py produced about $31.40 using negative EPS growth and a 15x terminal P/E.
ON AI technical analysis
ON AI technical analysis starts from the $91.10 July 7, 2026 close used for the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. Company stock history showed a July 7 intraday range of $87.96 to $92.06 and volume of 11.8 million shares. Third-party technical snapshots placed the 20-day and 50-day moving averages near $110 to $111, the 200-day moving average near $71, and 14-day RSI near 41. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, moving averages, volume, and momentum should be confirmed in a live charting tool before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $91.10 | onsemi investor relations reported this as the July 7, 2026 closing price used for the July 8, 2026 cutoff. |
| Near support | $87.96 to $91.10 | Uses the July 7 intraday low and close from onsemi stock history. Treat this as a planning zone, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Deeper support | $71 to $72, then $44.58 | Barchart and TipRanks placed the 200-day moving average near $71, while Markets Insider listed the 52-week low at $44.58. |
| Near resistance | $110 to $111 | Barchart and TipRanks both placed the 20-day and 50-day moving averages in this area after the post-deal pullback. |
| Major resistance | $134.90 to $134.92 | MarketWatch and Markets Insider showed the 52-week high in this range, reached in early June 2026. |
| 50-day moving average | About $110.7 to $110.8 | Barchart showed the 50-day moving average near $110.67, while TipRanks showed a similar reading near $110.81. |
| 200-day moving average | About $71.3 to $71.5 | Barchart and TipRanks placed the 200-day moving average below the current price, so long-term trend support remains lower. |
| Momentum | 14-day RSI near 41.4 | TipRanks technical data pointed to neutral momentum after the acquisition-related selloff. |
| Volume | 11.8 million shares on July 7 | onsemi reported 11.8 million shares traded on July 7, below the roughly 13.8 million 50-day average cited by MarketWatch. |
| Invalidation | Close below $87.96, then $71 | A close below the July 7 low weakens the short-term setup; losing the 200-day area would challenge the broader recovery trend. |
ON AI trading strategy
The ON AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with position sizing, stop levels, live chart checks, and fresh company filings.
Wait for ON to hold the $87.96 to $91.10 support zone, then look for a reclaim of the $110 to $111 moving-average resistance area with semiconductor breadth, AI data center order evidence, and volume confirmation.
A close below $87.96 or a failed reclaim after strong company guidance should invalidate the setup.
If ON pulls back without a business thesis break, compare the move with Q2 2026 guidance, PSG growth, AMG trends, ISG demand, gross margin, free cash flow, inventory, buybacks, and Synaptics deal milestones.
Do not average down without a predefined maximum loss and a fresh review of auto-cycle, silicon carbide, acquisition, and valuation risk.
Track automotive and industrial demand, AI data center power revenue, silicon carbide adoption, factory utilization, non-GAAP gross margin, operating margin, cash, debt, buybacks, and Synaptics synergy updates.
Reduce confidence when price strength is driven by physical AI headlines without matching revenue, margin, and cash flow evidence.
Investment research summary
onsemi sells intelligent power and sensing components that help vehicles, factories, energy systems, servers, and connected devices convert power, sense the physical world, and control electronic systems.
The moat is strongest in qualified automotive and industrial platforms, silicon carbide process knowledge, image sensing, power packaging, long product cycles, customer validation, and manufacturing discipline.
The thesis can fail if auto content growth slows, silicon carbide demand disappoints, AI data center revenue stays niche, utilization remains weak, Synaptics integration distracts management, or investors overpay for a cyclical rebound.
Hassane El-Khoury has pushed portfolio focus, cost actions, fab optimization, and capital returns. The next test is whether management can absorb Synaptics while still improving core margins and free cash flow.
ON sits in long-running trends: vehicle electrification, software-defined vehicles, industrial automation, energy infrastructure, efficient AI power delivery, imaging, and edge intelligence.
The current price assumes the 2026 recovery is durable. Margin of safety improves if free cash flow grows while the stock holds long-term support, or if the price resets closer to a lower normalized earnings multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ON price | $91.10 close on July 7, 2026 | onsemi stock info | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | About $35.9 billion by $91.10 x 394.1 million shares; financial_rigor.py reported 0.01% variance versus the reported market cap input | onsemi Q1 2026 release and financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 394.1 million basic weighted average shares in Q1 2026; Q2 2026 outlook used 394 million non-GAAP diluted shares | onsemi Q1 2026 results | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and profitability | Revenue $5.995 billion, down 15%; GAAP gross margin 33.1%; GAAP operating margin 1.4%; GAAP net income $121.0 million; diluted EPS $0.29 | onsemi FY2025 results and financial_rigor.py cross-validation | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 segment revenue | PSG $2.805 billion, AMG $2.262 billion, ISG $928 million; each segment declined year over year | onsemi FY2025 results | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Revenue $1.513 billion, up 5% year over year; GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin 38.5%; non-GAAP EPS $0.64 | onsemi Q1 2026 results | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | Cash and equivalents $2.004 billion, short-term investments $400 million, long-term debt $2.983 billion at April 3, 2026 | onsemi Q1 2026 balance sheet | July 8, 2026 |
| Valuation math | financial_rigor.py: 37.34x trailing non-GAAP EPS, 4.92x book value, 30.37x free cash flow per share, 5.76x sales | financial_rigor.py using onsemi and market data inputs | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day and 50-day moving averages near $110 to $111; 200-day moving average near $71; RSI near 41; 52-week range about $44.58 to $134.92 | Barchart, TipRanks, MarketWatch, and Markets Insider snapshots | July 8, 2026 |
| Synaptics transaction | Proposed all-stock acquisition with 1.35 onsemi shares per Synaptics share, about $7 billion enterprise value, expected $200 million annual synergies, and expected close in mid-2027 | onsemi Form 425 transaction materials | July 8, 2026 |
This ON AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data, source-backed calculations, and assumptions that may be wrong. Always verify current filings, market prices, technical levels, and your own risk constraints before making investment decisions.
