Casella Waste Systems, Inc. research snapshot
CWST AI stock analysis currently sees Casella Waste Systems as a vertically integrated regional solid-waste operator in the northeastern United States with durable pricing power, an active M&A growth strategy, and a widening EBITDA margin. This CWST AI stock analysis is not a certain price prediction. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the mechanically verified market capitalization was about $5.70 billion using a $91.05 reference price and about 62.6 million shares. Revenue reached $1.84 billion in FY2025 (up 18% YoY), but GAAP net income stayed thin at $7.9 million because depreciation and interest from the acquisition-heavy model absorbed most of the cash generation. TTM revenue was about $1.88 billion with EBITDA near $406 million, so the stock trades near 16.8x EV/EBITDA while trailing GAAP P/E sits near 810x and price to free cash flow near 56x. The key question is whether operating cash flow and adjusted margin expansion can eventually convert into growing GAAP earnings. This page is an informational research tool and is not investment advice.
Current price
$91.05
Market cap
$5.70 billion
AI score
55 / 100
Rating
Quality regional waste operator with a demanding GAAP valuation
Trend status
Pulled back from the 52-week high: above the 50-day, near the 200-day average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | CWST sells essential solid-waste collection, transfer, disposal, and recycling services across Vermont, New Hampshire, New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maine, and Pennsylvania. Customers pay for non-discretionary waste handling under municipal contracts, franchise agreements, and local service relationships. | High |
| Moat | Route density, permitted landfills and transfer stations, municipal contracts, and scale in a capital-intensive industry create regional switching costs and barriers to entry. The moat is regional rather than national and depends on maintaining disposal access and density. | Medium-high |
| Management | Founder-connected management (Casella family involvement) has driven aggressive M&A growth, expanding from $889 million to $1.84 billion in revenue over four years. Capital allocation focuses on tuck-in acquisitions, infrastructure investment, and debt management. Key-person risk exists around the Casella leadership team. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue grew at a 20% CAGR from FY2021 to FY2025 driven by M&A. EBITDA has grown from $209 million to $394 million. However, GAAP net income declined from $41 million to $7.9 million over the same period as depreciation and interest costs rose with the acquisition-driven balance sheet. | High |
| Valuation | The mechanically verified reference valuation showed about 810x trailing GAAP P/E ($0.11 EPS), about 16.8x EV/EBITDA, and about 56x P/FCF. The GAAP P/E is misleadingly high due to D&A drag. EV/EBITDA and P/FCF are more relevant but still imply premium pricing. | Medium |
| Technical trend | Around the cutoff the stock traded near $91.05, slightly above the 50-day average of about $90.47 and just below the 200-day average of about $91.67, after pulling back from a 52-week high of $107.96. The stock is down about 16% over 12 months and about 9% over 6 months, with a 3-month gain of about 5%. | Medium |
| Risk level | Integration risk from continued M&A, leverage on the balance sheet (net debt $1.11 billion, net debt/EBITDA 2.73x), regulatory and environmental compliance costs, volume sensitivity to economic cycles, and valuation risk if GAAP earnings normalization takes longer than expected. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Company-reported segment data, cash flows, and leverage are well documented in SEC filings. Price scenarios and technical levels are time-sensitive and depend on M&A execution and macro conditions. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium because the operating strategy and regional position are identifiable, but the margin of safety relative to a GAAP earnings-based multiple is unclear until cash-flow conversion improves meaningfully. | Medium |
CWST AI stock forecast
The CWST AI stock forecast uses three-year scenario ranges from the $91.05 reference price, not a point target. The ranges account for GAAP earnings distortion from D&A and use an EV/EBITDA framework. They can be wrong and should be refreshed after quarterly earnings, M&A announcements, pricing trends, and leverage updates.
$125 to $145
More likely if CWST sustains high-single-digit organic revenue growth alongside accretive M&A, EBITDA margins expand toward 24-25% through operating leverage, free cash flow conversion improves, and the market re-rates EV/EBITDA toward 18-19x on improved earnings visibility.
$90 to $110
More likely if revenue grows at 6-8% annually with steady M&A, EBITDA margins hold near 21-22%, free cash flow stays around $100 million, and EV/EBITDA stays near the current 16-17x range as the market waits for GAAP earnings to inflect.
$50 to $70
More likely if M&A integration disappoints, volumes weaken, pricing competition intensifies, interest costs rise further, leverage increases, or the market compresses EV/EBITDA toward 12-14x due to deteriorating sentiment or a recession.
CWST AI technical analysis
CWST AI technical analysis uses indicators available around the August 3, 2026 cutoff. This static page does not fetch request-time chart data. Confirm support, resistance, moving averages, momentum, volume, volatility, and invalidation levels in a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Reference price | $91.05 | Reference NASDAQ price used for the August 3, 2026 valuation snapshot near the day range of $89.87 to $92.08. |
| Near support | $85 to $88 | Planning zone below the 50-day average ($90.47) and the 200-day average ($91.67). These are not guaranteed floors. |
| Deeper support | $80 to $82 | Area near the 60-day low of $82.17. A close below this zone would shift attention toward the 52-week low. |
| 52-week low | $74.05 | The 52-week low reference from FMP quote data. The 52-week low closing price was near $74.97 in late March 2026. |
| Near resistance | $95 to $100 | Recent swing highs around $99.91 and the psychological $100 round number. A sustained close above this zone with volume would signal renewed strength. |
| 52-week high | $107.96 | The 52-week high reference from FMP, reached around February 2026. |
| 50-day moving average | About $90.47 | FMP data showed the 50-day SMA near this level around the cutoff, with the stock trading slightly above it. |
| 200-day moving average | About $91.67 | The 200-day SMA clustered near this level, and the stock was trading just below it after the pullback. |
| Momentum | Mixed near term | The stock is down about 16% over 12 months and about 9% over 6 months but up about 5% over 3 months, putting momentum between a recovering and a corrective pattern. |
| Volume | Moderate | Average daily volume near 695,000 shares. Volume should confirm any break above $100 resistance. |
| Volatility | Moderate for a small-cap industrial | 52-week range of $74.05 to $107.96. Beta of 0.74, so the stock is less volatile than the broad market on a 60-month basis. |
| Invalidation | Close below $85 | A decisive close below the $85 area (below the 50-day and 200-day averages) would weaken the pullback setup and require a fresh review of price, volume, and fundamentals. |
CWST AI trading strategy
The CWST AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. Use position sizing, explicit loss limits, live-chart confirmation, and fresh checks of pricing, volumes, M&A activity, EBITDA margins, free cash flow, and net leverage.
Wait for CWST to reclaim and hold the $91 to $92 area (above the 200-day average) and break through $95 to $100 with volume while reported pricing, margin, and M&A evidence remains constructive.
A failed breakout or a close below the selected support zone ($85 to $88 area) should invalidate the setup.
If CWST pulls back toward the $85 to $88 area without a business-thesis break, compare price action with organic revenue trends, EBITDA margins, free cash flow, and leverage metrics.
Do not average down unless maximum loss, position size, and the thesis invalidation condition are set in advance.
Track organic revenue growth, M&A pipeline and integration, EBITDA margin trajectory, free cash flow conversion, net leverage, and GAAP net income trajectory. Watch for competitor pricing moves and regulatory developments.
Reduce confidence when the share price rises without matching EBITDA growth, FCF improvement, or debt reduction.
Investment research summary
CWST is a vertically integrated regional solid-waste company covering seven northeastern states. Customers pay for essential collection, transfer, recycling, and disposal services under contracts and municipal relationships that are hard to replace without local infrastructure.
The moat comes from permitted landfill capacity, route density, transfer stations, recycling facilities, municipal contracts, and the capital required to replicate a northeastern waste network. It is strongest where CWST already owns disposal infrastructure and density.
The thesis can fail if pricing power fades, volumes decline in a recession, M&A integration destroys returns, interest costs erode cash flow faster than expected, environmental liabilities materialize, or the market compresses EV/EBITDA before GAAP earnings can catch up.
Founder-connected management with John Casella and Ned Coletta has grown revenue from $889 million (FY2021) to $1.84 billion (FY2025) through aggressive tuck-in M&A. The next test is whether the acquired assets can convert into growing GAAP net income as the acquisition-related D&A and interest burden plateaus.
Solid waste is an essential, recession-resilient service with steady pricing power tied to inflation and contract escalators. Growth comes from M&A consolidation, recycling and organics expansion, and landfill gas monetization. The industry benefits from the trend toward waste diversion and sustainability.
At the verified reference price, CWST trades near 810x trailing GAAP P/E, 16.8x EV/EBITDA, and 56x P/FCF. While the GAAP multiple is distorted by heavy depreciation, the EV/EBITDA and P/FCF levels still imply premium pricing for a small-cap regional operator relative to larger peers WM (about 15x) and RSG (about 13x EV/EBITDA).
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CWST reference price and market capitalization | $91.05 reference price and $5.70 billion market capitalization, cross-checked against 62.62 million shares outstanding (0.00% market-cap verification variance, acceptable) | FMP quote API, FMP profile API, and financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 annual revenue and EBITDA | $1.8368 billion revenue (up 18.0% YoY), $393.6 million EBITDA (21.4% margin), $89.2 million operating income | FMP income statement API for FY2025 (period ending Dec 31, 2025) | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income and free cash flow | $7.87 million GAAP net income ($0.12 diluted EPS), $329.8 million operating cash flow, $84.7 million free cash flow ($1.33 FCF per share) | FMP income statement and cash flow statement APIs for FY2025 | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM results through Q1 2026 | $1.877 billion revenue, $406.0 million EBITDA, $7.14 million net income, $341.9 million operating cash flow, $102.3 million free cash flow | FMP quarterly income statement and cash flow statement APIs for Q2 2025 through Q1 2026 | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 quarterly results | $457.3 million revenue, negative $5.5 million net income (-$0.087 EPS), $62.3 million operating cash flow, $12.3 million free cash flow | FMP quarterly income statement and cash flow APIs for Q1 2026 (ending Mar 31, 2026) | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet, leverage, and share count | March 31, 2026: cash $126.9 million, total debt $1.2368 billion, net debt $1.1099 billion, net debt/EBITDA 2.73x, shareholders equity $1.568 billion, total assets $3.27 billion | FMP balance sheet API for Q1 2026 and key-metrics-ttm API | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM valuation and technical reference levels | About 810x trailing GAAP P/E ($0.11 EPS), 16.8x EV/EBITDA, about 56x P/FCF, 3.05x PS, 3.70x PB; 52-week range $74.05 to $107.96; 50-day SMA near $90.47; 200-day SMA near $91.67 | FMP key metrics TTM API, FMP ratios TTM API, FMP quote API, FMP historical price API, and financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Peer valuation comparison | WM about 15.0x EV/EBITDA and 31.8x P/E, RSG about 12.7x EV/EBITDA and 30.1x P/E on August 3, 2026 | FMP ratios TTM API for WM and RSG | August 3, 2026 |
This CWST AI stock analysis is an informational tool, not investment advice, an offer, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data and assumptions, can be wrong, and may change without notice. Verify current information and consider qualified professional advice before making an investment decision.
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