Waste Connections, Inc. research snapshot
WCN AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads Waste Connections, Inc. as a high-quality North American waste-services business with recurring collection, transfer, disposal, recycling, renewable-fuel, and oilfield-waste operations. The positive signal is Q2 2026 revenue of $2.562 billion, up 6.4% year over year, adjusted EBITDA of $840.1 million, up 6.8%, and adjusted EPS of $1.50 versus a $1.35 consensus, with the full-year 2026 outlook raised to revenue of $10.02 billion to $10.05 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $3.33 billion to $3.34 billion. The caution is that the July 31, 2026 close of $167.38 still equates to about 40.4x trailing EPS, 28.8x forward EPS, and 34.7x trailing free cash flow, while total debt is near $9.64 billion and the stock is down about 11.5% over the past 52 weeks. This WCN AI stock analysis is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$167.38 close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$42.19 billion verified by price times shares
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
High-quality essential-services compounder with raised 2026 guidance, pricing power, AI-driven margin gains, and a still demanding valuation
Trend status
Mixed: price holds above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages but sits below the 20-day average after the Q2 pullback
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | WCN provides recurring collection, transfer, disposal, recycling, renewable-natural-gas, intermodal, and oilfield-waste services that households, businesses, municipalities, and industrial customers require, with record safety performance and strong employee retention. | High |
| Moat | Dense local routes, permitted landfills and transfer stations, customer contracts, regulatory know-how, and high replacement cost make direct replication slow and expensive, with pricing power shown by total price of 6.7% in Q2. | High |
| Management | Founder and CEO Ronald Mittelstaedt and CFO Mary Anne Whitney raised full-year 2026 guidance after a Q2 beat, deployed about $692 million on buybacks year to date, and kept leverage near 2.76x debt to EBITDA. The test is whether acquisitions and AI projects keep earning returns above the cost of capital. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 6.1% to $9.467 billion, Q2 2026 revenue rose 6.4% to $2.562 billion, adjusted EBITDA rose 6.8% to $840.1 million with a 32.8% margin, and management raised the full-year outlook. | High |
| Valuation | At $167.38, WCN trades near 40.4x trailing EPS, 28.8x forward EPS, 5.3x book value, 34.7x free cash flow, and a 0.84% dividend yield, with EV to EBITDA near 17.6x. | High |
| Technical trend | Price is above the 50-day moving average of $162.33 and the 200-day average of $166.09, but below the 20-day average of $170.01 after a pullback, with RSI near 49.8 and ADX near 26.4 signaling a modest trend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include valuation compression, fuel cost spikes and recovery timing, recycled commodity and RIN volatility, acquisition integration, leverage, landfill closure and post-closure costs such as Chiquita Canyon, volume softness, and regulation. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because filings and market data are rich. Forecast confidence is medium because a share-price outcome depends heavily on earnings growth, fuel and commodity trends, acquisition execution, and the terminal multiple. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | WCN is a strong business with raised guidance, but the current valuation leaves limited room for acquisition missteps, slower volume growth, higher fuel or closure costs, or lower investor appetite for premium industrial-service multiples. | Medium |
WCN AI stock forecast
The WCN AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $167.38 July 31 close and the consensus adjusted EPS of $5.63 for 2026. The audited three-scenario model produced a bearish point near $131, a base point near $181, and a bullish point near $240 over three years, before dividends. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$225 to $250
More likely if organic price holds near 5.5% or higher, volumes recover with the observed July pickup in special waste and C&D, acquisitions add profitable density, adjusted EBITDA expands near a 10% compound rate, fuel surcharges fully recover, and investors retain a low-30s earnings multiple.
$170 to $195
More likely if EPS compounds near 6%, pricing offsets labor and fuel costs, adjusted free cash flow grows at a double-digit per-share rate as RNG capex winds down, and the market values WCN around 27x forward earnings, near the analyst consensus target of $200.76.
$120 to $145
More likely if waste volumes soften, fuel costs stay elevated without full recovery, recycled commodity or RIN values fall, landfill or environmental costs such as Chiquita Canyon rise, acquisition returns disappoint, debt costs increase, or investors re-rate WCN toward a low-20s earnings multiple.
WCN AI technical analysis
WCN AI technical analysis is constructive on longer moving averages but mixed in the short term as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The $167.38 July 31 close was above the 50-day moving average of $162.33 and the 200-day moving average of $166.09, but below the 20-day moving average of $170.01 after the Q2 pullback. RSI near 49.8 was neutral, ADX near 26.4 showed a modest trend, and the stock remains inside a 52-week range of $146.89 to $191.00.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $167.38 | July 31, 2026 closing price used for market-cap and valuation verification, up 0.67% on the day. |
| Immediate support | $162 to $166 | Area around the 50-day moving average of $162.33 and the 200-day average of $166.09, a key test of the longer trend after the Q2 pullback. |
| Deeper support | $153 to $159 | Area around the late June 2026 lows, including the June 22 close of $153.43 and the June 30 close of $166.69 zone, where buyers stepped in before the Q2 run. |
| Near resistance | $170 to $173 | Area around the 20-day moving average of $170.01 and the July 29 high of $174.54, where recent overhead supply has appeared. |
| Higher resistance | $190 to $191 | Area around the reported 52-week high of $191.00, where supply may reappear after the pullback. |
| Moving averages | 20-day $170.01, 50-day $162.33, 100-day $161.53, 200-day $166.09 | Barchart technical data showed price above the 50-day and 200-day averages but below the 20-day and 100-day averages as of the cutoff. |
| Momentum | RSI 49.82, 14-day Stochastic %K 31.52 | RSI was neutral, while short-term stochastic readings were weak, and ADX near 26.4 with +DI above -DI pointed to a modest positive trend. |
| Volume | 1.32 million shares on July 31 | StockAnalysis reported 1,318,069 shares for the July 31 session, below the 20-day average near 1.35 million. Follow-through volume matters on a move through resistance. |
| Volatility | 14-day ATR $4.08, beta 0.48 | The low beta and ATR describe recent price movement, not a limit on potential loss. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $162 | A durable break below the 50-day moving average near $162.33 would weaken the longer-term setup and increase valuation-reset risk. |
WCN AI trading strategy
The WCN AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It connects price action to revenue growth, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, acquisition activity, leverage, fuel and commodity trends, landfill liabilities, and AI-driven operating gains.
Look for WCN to hold $162 to $166 and then reclaim the $170 to $173 area while Q3 results confirm pricing retention, volume improvement, adjusted EBITDA margin near or above 33.7%, and disciplined acquisition and buyback activity.
A failed reclaim above resistance or a close below the 50-day area lowers setup confidence, especially if paired with weaker free cash flow or rising fuel and closure costs.
If WCN pulls back toward $153 to $159 while revenue, margins, cash conversion, and acquisition returns remain intact, compare the lower price with updated EPS, debt, and free cash flow assumptions.
Do not treat every decline as attractive if it reflects lower volumes, a costly landfill revision, fuel cost creep, integration problems, higher debt costs, or a broad reset in premium-quality valuations.
Track core price, yield, solid waste volumes, adjusted EBITDA margin, acquisition contribution, adjusted free cash flow, capex, leverage, buybacks, dividend growth, fuel and recycled commodity and RIN effects, Chiquita Canyon outflows, RNG project completion, and AI-driven routing and pricing gains.
Position sizing should reflect that a recurring essential-services business can still produce poor stock returns when the entry valuation is too high.
Investment research summary
Customers pay WCN to collect, transfer, dispose of, recycle, treat, and recover value from waste streams they cannot manage alone. The model works when local route density, disposal access, pricing power, operating discipline, and price-cost spread reinforce one another.
WCN benefits from permitted landfills and transfer stations, local route density, customer contracts, regulatory complexity, operating know-how, and the capital needed to replicate disposal infrastructure. Q2 total price of 6.7% and core pricing of 5.6% showed durable pricing power in competitive and exclusive markets.
The thesis fails if acquisition returns fall, fuel costs stay high without full recovery, closure and post-closure liabilities such as Chiquita Canyon rise, debt grows faster than cash flow, volumes contract, commodity values reverse, or investors stop paying a premium multiple for waste-services earnings.
Ronald Mittelstaedt and Mary Anne Whitney raised full-year 2026 guidance after a Q2 beat, deployed about $692 million on buybacks year to date, and kept leverage near 2.76x debt to EBITDA. The key question is whether the next dollar spent on acquisitions, capex, buybacks, RNG, or debt reduction earns the best long-run return.
Waste services are an essential, locally regulated industry with modest volume growth and consolidation opportunities. Recycling, renewable-natural-gas generation, AI-enabled pricing and routing, and compliant industrial disposal can add value, but none eliminates capital, fuel, commodity, or environmental risk.
The current price assumes that WCN can sustain high-quality growth and capital allocation. The base scenario points near or modestly above the current share price if EPS compounds near 6% and the market keeps WCN near 27x forward earnings, while the bear scenario points well below if growth slows or the multiple compresses.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price reference | $167.38 close on July 31, 2026, up 0.67% on the day | StockAnalysis overview | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 252.05 million shares, down 1.14% year over year | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Market cap verification | $42.19 billion calculated from price times shares vs $42.19 billion reported | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue | $2.562 billion, up 6.4% year over year | WCN Q2 2026 earnings release and call | July 22, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA | $840.1 million, up 6.8%, with a 32.8% adjusted EBITDA margin | WCN Q2 2026 earnings call | July 23, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted EPS | $1.50 versus a $1.35 consensus | TheFly via StockAnalysis news | July 23, 2026 |
| FY2026 raised outlook | Revenue of $10.02 billion to $10.05 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $3.33 billion to $3.34 billion, with adjusted free cash flow of $1.4 billion to $1.45 billion | WCN Q2 2026 earnings release and call | July 22, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $9.467 billion revenue and $1.077 billion net income | WCN 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt at June 30, 2026 | $98.18 million cash, $28.92 million short-term debt, and $9.284 billion long-term debt, with total debt of $9.639 billion | StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM cash flow | $2.513 billion operating cash flow, $1.296 billion capex, and $1.218 billion free cash flow, with FCF per share of $4.83 | StockAnalysis cash flow statement | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 40.42x PE, 28.75x forward PE, 5.33x PB, 34.65x P/FCF, 2.78x PEG, and 0.84% dividend yield | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Consensus forecast | 28 analysts with a Buy rating and average price target of $200.76, low $162 and high $230, with consensus 2026 adjusted EPS of $5.63 and 2027 adjusted EPS of $6.20 | StockAnalysis forecast | July 28, 2026 |
| Capital returns | About $692 million of buybacks deployed year to date, over 1.5% of shares repurchased, and a $1.40 annual dividend with an ex-dividend date of August 6, 2026 | WCN Q2 2026 earnings call and StockAnalysis | July 23, 2026 |
| Technical moving averages and momentum | 20-day $170.01, 50-day $162.33, 100-day $161.53, 200-day $166.09, RSI 49.82, 14-day ATR $4.08, beta 0.48 | Barchart and StockAnalysis technical data | August 2, 2026 |
This WCN AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong if earnings, pricing, fuel costs, commodity values, acquisition returns, valuation multiples, rates, debt costs, regulation, environmental liabilities, or market conditions change.
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