GFL Environmental Inc. research snapshot
GFL AI stock analysis currently sees GFL Environmental as a North American solid-waste consolidator with strong pricing power, record adjusted EBITDA margins, and active capital allocation after selling Environmental Services and buying back over 10% of shares. This GFL AI stock analysis is not a certain price prediction. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the mechanically checked market capitalization was about $14.26 billion using a $39.75 reference price and 358.69 million shares. The key question is whether mid-30s margin progress, free-cash-flow conversion, and accretive M&A can support a valuation near 58x trailing EPS. This page is an informational research tool and is not investment advice.
Current price
$39.75
Market cap
$14.26 billion
AI score
67 / 100
Rating
Quality solid-waste consolidator with a premium valuation
Trend status
Mixed: above 50-day average, below 52-week highs
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | GFL sells collection, transfer, recycling, and disposal services across Canada and 18 U.S. states. Customers pay for reliable waste handling under local density, contracts, and franchise or municipal relationships. | High |
| Moat | Route density, permitted landfills and facilities, municipal contracts, and scale procurement create switching costs and local barriers. The moat is regional rather than a single global brand advantage. | Medium-high |
| Management | Founder and CEO Patrick Dovigi has pushed margin expansion, divested Environmental Services, repurchased more than 10% of shares, and kept Net Leverage near the low-to-mid 3x zone. Capital allocation remains highly active. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY 2025 continuing revenue was CAD 6,615.9 million with Adjusted EBITDA of CAD 1,985.0 million (30.0% margin) and Adjusted Free Cash Flow of CAD 755.9 million. Q1 2026 revenue was CAD 1,643.8 million with a record Q1 Adjusted EBITDA margin of 29.1%. | High |
| Valuation | The mechanically verified reference valuation was about 58.46x USD TTM EPS near $0.68 and about 26.5x estimated TTM free cash flow per share, so the market already prices strong execution. | Medium |
| Technical trend | Around the cutoff the stock sat near the 50-day average after a rebound from the mid-$30s, while remaining well below the 52-week high near $51.51. | Medium |
| Risk level | Leverage after acquisitions, integration of tuck-ins and the proposed SECURE transaction, volume softness, fuel and commodity swings, FX translation, and multiple compression are material risks. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Company-reported results and balance-sheet leverage are well documented. Price scenarios and live technical levels are time-sensitive and less certain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium because operating quality is clearer than the margin of safety at the current multiple. | Medium |
GFL AI stock forecast
The GFL AI stock forecast uses three-year scenario ranges from the $39.75 reference price, not a point target. The ranges are outputs of an auditable EPS and multiple framework using about $0.68 TTM diluted EPS in USD terms. They can be wrong and should be refreshed after earnings, pricing and volume commentary, M&A closings, leverage updates, and FX moves.
$44 to $52
More likely if core pricing stays mid-to-high single digits, Adjusted EBITDA margins move toward the low-to-mid 30s, free cash flow tracks raised 2026 guidance near CAD 850 million, and investors sustain a multiple near 45x on growing EPS.
$25 to $32
More likely if revenue and margins improve steadily near high-single-digit EPS growth, while the market compresses the multiple toward the low-30s as growth normalizes.
$11 to $16
More likely if volumes weaken, integration or leverage pressure rises, FX and costs squeeze margins, EPS stagnates or falls, and the multiple compresses toward 20x.
GFL AI technical analysis
GFL AI technical analysis uses indicators available around the July 12, 2026 cutoff. This static page does not fetch request-time chart data. Confirm support, resistance, moving averages, momentum, volume, volatility, and invalidation levels in a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Reference price | $39.75 | Reference NYSE price used for the July 12, 2026 valuation snapshot near the recent $39.60 to $40.62 session range. |
| Near support | $36.50 to $38.00 | Planning zone around the late-June and early-July rebound base. It is not a guaranteed floor. |
| Near resistance | $41.00 to $43.00 | Planning zone above the recent rebound highs. A sustained move through it with volume would improve the short-term setup. |
| 50-day moving average | About $39.25 to $39.45 | Investing.com listed the 50-day average near this band around the cutoff, with price roughly even with it. |
| 200-day moving average | About $36.60 to $37.60 | Cited longer-term averages clustered in the high $30s, supporting a longer-term recovery view if price holds above them. |
| Momentum | Neutral near term | Cited RSI readings near the high 40s to low 60s depending on the snapshot date, consistent with a rebound rather than an overextended trend. |
| Volume | Elevated on the early-July rebound | Company IR and market data showed multi-million share sessions around the early-July move higher. Volume should confirm any break above resistance. |
| Volatility | Moderate for a large-cap industrial | 52-week range about $33.33 to $51.51. Beta estimates vary by source, so size positions with an explicit loss budget. |
| Invalidation | Close below $36.50 | A decisive close below the rebound support zone would weaken the short-term setup and require a fresh review of price, volume, and fundamentals. |
GFL AI trading strategy
The GFL AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. Use position sizing, explicit loss limits, live-chart confirmation, and fresh checks of pricing, volumes, Adjusted Free Cash Flow, Net Leverage, M&A closings, and FX.
Wait for GFL to hold above the $39 to $40 area and reclaim the $41 to $43 resistance zone with volume while reported pricing, margin, and cash-flow evidence remains intact.
A failed breakout or a close below the selected support zone should invalidate the setup.
If GFL pulls back into the $36.50 to $38.00 area without a business-thesis break, compare price action with core pricing, volume trends, leverage, and free-cash-flow seasonality.
Do not average down unless maximum loss, position size, and the thesis invalidation condition are set in advance.
Track core pricing, organic volume, Adjusted EBITDA margin, Adjusted Free Cash Flow versus guidance, Net Leverage, acquisition integration, the proposed SECURE transaction, and CAD/USD translation.
Reduce confidence when the share price rises without matching pricing durability, margin expansion, free cash flow, or leverage progress.
Investment research summary
GFL is a diversified solid-waste company. Customers pay for collection, transfer, recycling, and disposal because the service is essential, contracted locally, and hard to replace without route density and permitted facilities.
The moat comes from route density, municipal and commercial contracts, permitted landfills and processing sites, scale procurement, and the capital needed to replicate a North American network. It is strongest where GFL already has density and disposal control.
The thesis can fail if pricing power fades, volumes fall, fuel or labor costs outrun surcharges, acquisitions destroy returns, leverage rises after large deals, FX weakens reported results, or the market compresses a premium multiple before cash flow catches up.
Founder-led management has improved margins, sold Environmental Services, returned substantial capital through buybacks, and continued tuck-in M&A. The next test is whether raised 2026 guidance and further deals convert into higher free cash flow without re-levering the balance sheet too far.
Solid waste is a mature essential service with pricing, density, recycling infrastructure, and extended producer responsibility as growth levers. Secular demand is steady rather than hyper-growth, so execution and capital allocation matter more than a new end market story.
At the verified reference price, GFL traded near 58x trailing EPS and roughly mid-20s free-cash-flow multiple on an estimated USD free-cash-flow base. Operating quality is improving, but the current price leaves a thinner margin of safety if growth or margins disappoint.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| GFL reference price and market capitalization | $39.75 reference price and $14.26 billion market capitalization, cross-checked against 358.69 million shares outstanding (0.01% market-cap verification variance) | Macrotrends market cap, company share count, and financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | July 12, 2026 |
| FY 2025 continuing operations revenue and Adjusted EBITDA | CAD 6,615.9 million revenue and CAD 1,985.0 million Adjusted EBITDA (30.0% margin) | GFL Q4 and full-year 2025 results release via PR Newswire | July 12, 2026 |
| FY 2025 continuing net income and Adjusted Free Cash Flow | CAD 241.1 million net income from continuing operations and CAD 755.9 million Adjusted Free Cash Flow; cash from operating activities CAD 1,316.0 million | GFL Q4 and full-year 2025 results release via PR Newswire | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating results and raised 2026 guidance | CAD 1,643.8 million revenue, CAD 478.5 million Adjusted EBITDA (29.1% margin), CAD (24.3) million Adjusted Free Cash Flow; raised full-year guidance to about CAD 7.32 to 7.34 billion revenue, CAD 2.23 billion Adjusted EBITDA, and CAD 850 million Adjusted Free Cash Flow | GFL Q1 2026 results release via PR Newswire | July 12, 2026 |
| Balance sheet, leverage, and share count | March 31, 2026 cash CAD 1,436.2 million, long-term debt about CAD 9.38 billion excluding deferred finance costs, Net Leverage 3.6x, basic shares outstanding 358.689 million | GFL Q1 2026 results release and company share-count table | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM valuation and technical reference levels | About 58.46x TTM EPS using $0.68 USD EPS, estimated mid-20s P/FCF, 52-week range about $33.33 to $51.51, and 50-day average near $39.25 to $39.45 | financial_rigor.py valuation verification, MarketWatch 52-week range, Investing.com moving averages | July 12, 2026 |
This GFL AI stock analysis is an informational tool, not investment advice, an offer, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data and assumptions, can be wrong, and may change without notice. Verify current information and consider qualified professional advice before making an investment decision.
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