Republic Services, Inc. research snapshot
RSG AI stock analysis currently reads Republic Services, Inc. as a durable environmental services business with recurring waste collection, disposal, recycling, and environmental solutions demand. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, RSG traded near $222.46 with StockAnalysis reporting 307.66 million shares outstanding and Robinhood reporting a $68.44 billion market cap. The bull case rests on 2025 revenue of $16.59 billion, net income of $2.14 billion, adjusted free cash flow of $2.43 billion, Q1 2026 revenue growth of 2.6%, and management guidance for 2026 adjusted free cash flow of $2.52 billion to $2.56 billion. The caution is valuation: verified math shows 31.87x TTM EPS and 26.39x free cash flow per share, so upside needs continued pricing, margin discipline, acquisitions, and resilient volume.
Current price
$222.46
Market cap
$68.44 billion reported market cap, $68.45 billion calculated from price and shares
AI score
73 / 100
Rating
High-quality environmental services compounder with pricing power, steady cash flow, and valuation that already assumes reliable execution
Trend status
Constructive technical trend, with price above key moving averages and RSI near the upper-neutral zone
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Republic Services provides recycling, solid waste, special waste, hazardous waste, field services, emergency response, equipment rental, and related environmental services to municipal, commercial, industrial, and residential customers. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from route density, landfill permits, local scale, regulated assets, municipal contracts, customer switching friction, recurring service need, and a large installed operating network. | High |
| Management | CEO Jon Vander Ark has focused on pricing, environmental solutions, automation, acquisitions, adjusted EBITDA margin expansion, free cash flow, dividends, and buybacks. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 3.5% to $16.59 billion, net income was $2.14 billion, adjusted EBITDA was $5.31 billion, and adjusted free cash flow was $2.43 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $222.46, financial_rigor.py calculates 31.87x TTM EPS, 5.72x book value, 26.39x free cash flow per share, 3.79% FCF yield, and 1.12% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | Price is above the 50-day moving average near $216.08 and 200-day moving average near $209.59, while RSI near 69.40 signals strong but extended momentum. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate because the service need is recurring, but volume softness, labor, fuel, recycled commodity prices, landfill permitting, environmental liabilities, leverage, and valuation sensitivity matter. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because official and third-party sources agree on the core financial base. Forecast confidence is medium because the multiple is sensitive to small growth changes. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium at this price. RSG has a durable franchise, but the margin of safety depends on steady pricing, cash flow, and disciplined acquisitions. | Medium |
RSG AI stock forecast
The RSG AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction. Using the July 8, 2026 research cutoff, a $222.46 stock price, $6.98 TTM EPS, and a three-year framework, the tested valuation anchors were about $299.00 in a bull case, $226.20 in a base case, and $158.20 in a bear case before dividends.
$285 to $305
More likely if RSG holds 2026 revenue near the $17.05 billion to $17.15 billion guidance range, delivers adjusted EBITDA of $5.48 billion to $5.52 billion, converts adjusted free cash flow of $2.52 billion to $2.56 billion, maintains pricing above cost inflation, and keeps acquisition returns disciplined.
$215 to $235
More likely if EPS compounds at a mid single-digit pace, recycling and waste price increases offset lower volume, environmental solutions stabilizes, and investors value RSG near a high-20s earnings multiple.
$150 to $165
More likely if volume weakens, recycled commodity prices fall, fuel and labor costs pressure margins, acquisitions disappoint, environmental liabilities rise, leverage limits capital returns, or the market rerates RSG toward a lower industrial multiple.
RSG AI technical analysis
RSG AI technical analysis is constructive but extended as of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. Robinhood showed RSG near $222.46, a 52-week range of $196.41 to $246.25, and average volume near 1.5 million shares. Investing.com showed a daily technical reading in strong buy territory, RSI near 69.40, a 50-day moving average near $216.08, and a 200-day moving average near $209.59.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $222.46 | Current quote reference used for this static page and the market cap verification. |
| Immediate support | $216 to $217 | The 50-day moving average and recent closing references make this the first support zone to monitor if momentum cools. |
| Deeper support | $209 to $210 | The 200-day moving average is the deeper trend support area and a cleaner test of intermediate momentum. |
| Near resistance | $230 to $246 | A move through the recent quote zone needs confirmation toward the 52-week high near $246.25. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $216.08, 200-day $209.59 | Current price is above both averages, which supports a constructive trend read. |
| Momentum | RSI near 69.40 | Momentum is strong but close to overbought territory, so failed breakouts deserve close attention. |
| Volume | Average volume near 1.5 million shares | Breakouts above resistance should be judged against average volume and follow-through after earnings updates. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.40 | RSG has low market beta, but volume, fuel, commodity price, acquisition, and guidance headlines can still move the stock. |
| Invalidation | Close below $209, then below $196 | A close below the 200-day moving average would weaken the setup. A break below the 52-week low would put the bear scenario back in focus. |
RSG AI trading strategy
The RSG AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal financial advice. It links price action with Q2 2026 earnings on August 6, 2026, price versus volume, adjusted free cash flow guidance, margins, acquisition spend, leverage, and moving-average discipline.
Watch for RSG to hold above the $216 to $217 support area and then close above the $230 to $246 resistance band with volume near or above the normal baseline, while earnings confirm pricing, margin, and cash-flow guidance.
Treat a failed breakout followed by a close below $209 as a warning because the setup would lose both momentum and the 200-day moving-average support.
If RSG pulls back toward $209 to $216 without a cut to revenue, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted free cash flow, or pricing commentary, compare the reset price with the base scenario and dividend yield.
Do not average down only because waste services are defensive. Require evidence that volume, labor, fuel, commodity prices, and acquisition returns remain manageable.
Track Q2 2026 results, revenue growth, average yield, volume, adjusted EBITDA margin, adjusted free cash flow, recycling commodity prices, environmental solutions trends, net debt, buybacks, dividends, and acquisition spending.
Lower the rating if adjusted free cash flow falls short while valuation remains above 30x TTM earnings or if acquisitions consume cash without visible margin or route-density benefits.
Investment research summary
Customers pay RSG because waste collection, recycling, landfill disposal, hazardous waste handling, field services, and emergency response are recurring needs that businesses, cities, and households cannot defer for long.
RSG benefits from route density, landfill ownership, disposal permits, municipal relationships, environmental compliance capability, scale purchasing, and customer switching friction in local service markets.
The thesis fails if price cannot offset cost inflation, volumes weaken, recycled commodity prices fall, landfill or environmental liabilities rise, acquisitions overpay, or the valuation multiple falls faster than EPS grows.
Jon Vander Ark and team are judged on pricing discipline, margin expansion, acquisition returns, safety, automation, environmental solutions execution, free cash flow conversion, dividends, buybacks, and leverage management.
RSG operates in a necessary North American environmental services market supported by urban activity, regulation, landfill scarcity, recycling needs, sustainability work, and industrial waste requirements.
At 31.87x TTM EPS and 26.39x free cash flow per share, RSG is not cheap on trailing numbers. Margin of safety improves if the stock pulls back while pricing power and adjusted free cash flow remain intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSG quote reference | $222.46 current quote reference, 52-week range $196.41 to $246.25 | Robinhood RSG stock quote | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $68.44 billion reported market cap, with $68.45 billion calculated from $222.46 x 307.66 million shares | StockAnalysis statistics, Robinhood quote, and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 307.66 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis RSG statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $16.59 billion revenue and $2.14 billion net income, cross-checked with Macrotrends and StockAnalysis | Republic Services FY2025 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 cash flow | $4.30 billion cash flow from operations and $2.43 billion adjusted free cash flow | Republic Services FY2025 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating update | $4.11 billion revenue, $525 million net income, $1.70 diluted EPS, $1.23 billion operating cash flow, and $984 million adjusted free cash flow | Republic Services Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| 2026 financial guidance | $17.05 billion to $17.15 billion revenue, $5.48 billion to $5.52 billion adjusted EBITDA, and $2.52 billion to $2.56 billion adjusted free cash flow | Republic Services FY2025 results and 2026 guidance release | July 8, 2026 |
| Balance sheet and valuation inputs | $118 million cash, $14.09 billion debt, $2.59 billion TTM free cash flow, $8.43 FCF per share, and $38.90 book value per share | StockAnalysis RSG statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical levels | RSI 69.40, 50-day moving average $216.08, and 200-day moving average $209.59 | Investing.com RSG technical analysis | July 8, 2026 |
| Industry addressable market | 2024 Form 10-K estimated the North American environmental services market at about $165 billion of annual revenue | Republic Services 2024 Form 10-K | July 8, 2026 |
This RSG AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong if volumes, pricing, costs, acquisitions, environmental liabilities, market sentiment, or company fundamentals change.
