Republic Services, Inc. research snapshot
RSG AI stock analysis currently reads Republic Services, Inc. as a durable environmental services business with recurring waste collection, disposal, recycling, and environmental solutions demand. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, RSG closed near $210.55 on July 31, 2026 with StockAnalysis reporting 307.66 million shares outstanding and a $64.78 billion market cap. The bull case rests on FY2025 revenue of $16.59 billion, net income of $2.14 billion, adjusted free cash flow of $2.43 billion, Q1 2026 revenue growth of 2.6%, and management guidance for 2026 adjusted free cash flow of $2.52 billion to $2.56 billion. The caution is that the stock fell about 9% over the past year and now trades below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, while verified math still shows 30.21x TTM EPS and 24.98x free cash flow per share, so upside needs continued pricing, margin discipline, acquisitions, and a recovery in technical momentum.
Current price
$210.55
Market cap
$64.78 billion reported market cap, $64.78 billion calculated from price and shares
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
High-quality environmental services compounder with pricing power, steady cash flow, and a valuation that now offers more room after a one-year pullback
Trend status
Neutral technical trend, with price below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and RSI near 42
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Republic Services provides recycling, solid waste, special waste, hazardous waste, field services, emergency response, equipment rental, and related environmental services to municipal, commercial, industrial, and residential customers. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from route density, landfill permits, local scale, regulated assets, municipal contracts, customer switching friction, recurring service need, and a large installed operating network. | High |
| Management | CEO Jon Vander Ark has focused on pricing, environmental solutions, automation, acquisitions, adjusted EBITDA margin expansion, free cash flow, dividends, and buybacks. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 3.5% to $16.59 billion, net income was $2.14 billion, adjusted EBITDA was $5.31 billion, and adjusted free cash flow was $2.43 billion. Q1 2026 EPS grew 7.6% with 50 basis points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion. | High |
| Valuation | At $210.55, financial_rigor.py calculates 30.21x TTM EPS, 5.41x book value, 24.98x free cash flow per share, 4.00% FCF yield, and 1.27% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | Price is below the 50-day moving average near $212.52 and the 200-day moving average near $214.48, while RSI near 42.28 signals weak-to-neutral momentum after a 9% one-year decline. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate because the service need is recurring, but volume softness, labor, fuel, recycled commodity prices, landfill permitting, environmental liabilities, leverage, and the broken moving-average trend matter. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because official and third-party sources agree on the core financial base. Forecast confidence is medium because the multiple is sensitive to small growth changes. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium at this price. RSG has a durable franchise, but the margin of safety depends on steady pricing, cash flow, disciplined acquisitions, and a move back above the moving averages. | Medium |
RSG AI stock forecast
The RSG AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction. Using the August 2, 2026 research cutoff, a $210.55 stock price, $6.97 TTM EPS, and a three-year framework, the tested valuation anchors were about $263 in a bull case, $229 in a base case, and $156 in a bear case before dividends.
$250 to $270
More likely if RSG holds 2026 revenue near the $17.05 billion to $17.15 billion guidance range, delivers adjusted EBITDA of $5.48 billion to $5.52 billion, converts adjusted free cash flow of $2.52 billion to $2.56 billion, maintains pricing above cost inflation, and reclaims the 50-day and 200-day moving averages with volume.
$220 to $240
More likely if EPS compounds at a mid single-digit pace, recycling and waste price increases offset lower volume, environmental solutions stabilizes, and investors value RSG near a high-20s earnings multiple, in line with the $245 average analyst price target.
$150 to $165
More likely if volume weakens further, recycled commodity prices fall, fuel and labor costs pressure margins, acquisitions disappoint, environmental liabilities rise, leverage limits capital returns, or the market rerates RSG toward a low-20s multiple.
RSG AI technical analysis
RSG AI technical analysis is neutral as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed RSG near $210.55, a 52-week range of $196.41 to $238.62, and average volume near 1.33 million shares. The 50-day moving average is near $212.52 and the 200-day moving average is near $214.48, both now above price, with RSI near 42.28 signaling weak-to-neutral momentum.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $210.55 | July 31, 2026 close reference used for this static page and the market cap verification. |
| Immediate support | $208 to $210 | The recent trading zone near the last day low makes this the first support area to monitor if selling persists. |
| Deeper support | $196 to $200 | The 52-week low near $196.41 is the deeper trend support area and a cleaner test of the correction. |
| Near resistance | $212 to $215 | The 50-day moving average near $212.52 and the 200-day moving average near $214.48 now sit above price and form the first overhead band. |
| Further resistance | $230 to $239 | A reclaim of the moving averages needs confirmation toward the 52-week high near $238.62. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $212.52, 200-day $214.48 | Price below both averages keeps the intermediate trend neutral until price reclaims them. |
| Momentum | RSI near 42.28 | Momentum is weak-to-neutral and below the 50 midpoint, so bounces may fade until RSI turns up. |
| Volume | Average volume near 1.33 million shares | Reclaims of resistance should be judged against average volume and follow-through after the August 6, 2026 earnings update. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.40 | RSG has low market beta, but volume, fuel, commodity price, acquisition, and guidance headlines can still move the stock. |
| Invalidation | Close above $215, then below $196 | A close back above the 200-day moving average would strengthen the setup. A break below the 52-week low would put the bear scenario back in focus. |
RSG AI trading strategy
The RSG AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal financial advice. It links price action with Q2 2026 earnings on August 6, 2026, price versus the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, adjusted free cash flow guidance, margins, acquisition spend, leverage, and moving-average discipline.
Watch for RSG to reclaim and hold above the $212 to $215 moving-average band with volume near or above the normal baseline, while the August 6 earnings update confirms pricing, margin, and cash-flow guidance.
Treat a failed reclaim followed by a close back below $208 as a warning because the setup would keep price under both moving averages.
If RSG pulls back toward $196 to $210 without a cut to revenue, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted free cash flow, or pricing commentary, compare the reset price with the base scenario and the 1.27% dividend yield.
Do not average down only because waste services are defensive. Require evidence that volume, labor, fuel, commodity prices, and acquisition returns remain manageable.
Track Q2 2026 results, revenue growth, average yield, volume, adjusted EBITDA margin, adjusted free cash flow, recycling commodity prices, environmental solutions trends, net debt, buybacks, dividends, and acquisition spending.
Lower the rating if adjusted free cash flow falls short while valuation remains above 30x trailing earnings or if acquisitions consume cash without visible margin or route-density benefits.
Investment research summary
Customers pay RSG because waste collection, recycling, landfill disposal, hazardous waste handling, field services, and emergency response are recurring needs that businesses, cities, and households cannot defer for long.
RSG benefits from route density, landfill ownership, disposal permits, municipal relationships, environmental compliance capability, scale purchasing, and customer switching friction in local service markets.
The thesis fails if price cannot offset cost inflation, volumes weaken, recycled commodity prices fall, landfill or environmental liabilities rise, acquisitions overpay, or the valuation multiple falls faster than EPS grows.
Jon Vander Ark and team are judged on pricing discipline, margin expansion, acquisition returns, safety, automation, environmental solutions execution, free cash flow conversion, dividends, buybacks, and leverage management.
RSG operates in a necessary North American environmental services market supported by urban activity, regulation, landfill scarcity, recycling needs, sustainability work, and industrial waste requirements.
At 30.21x TTM EPS and 24.98x free cash flow per share, RSG is cheaper than a year ago but still not cheap on trailing numbers. Margin of safety improves if the stock stabilizes while pricing power and adjusted free cash flow remain intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSG quote reference | $210.55 current quote reference, 52-week range $196.41 to $238.62 | StockAnalysis RSG stock overview | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $64.78 billion reported market cap, with $64.78 billion calculated from $210.55 x 307.66 million shares | StockAnalysis statistics, StockAnalysis overview, and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 307.66 million shares outstanding, down 0.97% year over year | StockAnalysis RSG statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $16.59 billion revenue and $2.14 billion net income, cross-checked with StockAnalysis | Republic Services FY2025 results release | February 17, 2026 |
| FY2025 cash flow | $4.30 billion cash flow from operations and $2.43 billion adjusted free cash flow | Republic Services FY2025 results release | February 17, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating update | $4.11 billion revenue, $525 million net income, $1.70 diluted EPS, $1.23 billion operating cash flow, and $984 million adjusted free cash flow | Republic Services Q1 2026 results release | May 7, 2026 |
| 2026 financial guidance | $17.05 billion to $17.15 billion revenue, $5.48 billion to $5.52 billion adjusted EBITDA, $7.20 to $7.28 adjusted diluted EPS, and $2.52 billion to $2.56 billion adjusted free cash flow | Republic Services FY2025 results and 2026 guidance release | February 17, 2026 |
| Balance sheet and valuation inputs | $118 million cash, $14.09 billion debt, $2.59 billion TTM free cash flow, $8.43 FCF per share, and $38.90 book value per share | StockAnalysis RSG statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical levels | RSI 42.28, 50-day moving average $212.52, and 200-day moving average $214.48 | StockAnalysis RSG statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus and price targets | Buy consensus from 27 analysts with an average price target of $245.38, a low of $208, and a high of $270 | StockAnalysis RSG stock forecast | July 28, 2026 |
| Industry addressable market | 2024 Form 10-K estimated the North American environmental services market at about $165 billion of annual revenue | Republic Services 2024 Form 10-K | August 2, 2026 |
This RSG AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong if volumes, pricing, costs, acquisitions, environmental liabilities, market sentiment, or company fundamentals change.
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