Waste Management, Inc. research snapshot
WM AI stock analysis currently reads Waste Management, Inc. as a high-quality essential services business with durable collection routes, landfill scarcity, pricing discipline, recycling, renewable natural gas, and healthcare waste expansion after the Stericycle acquisition. The positive signal is Q2 2026 revenue of $6.684 billion, adjusted EPS of $2.02 versus consensus of $1.98, operating EBITDA growth of 5.5% (9.1% excluding wildfire cleanup), and a 40 basis point operating EBITDA margin expansion. Management raised full year margin guidance to 31% to 31.2% and kept operating EBITDA and free cash flow guidance intact while narrowing revenue guidance by about 1.5% on softer volumes. The caution is valuation and leverage: at the July 31, 2026 close of $226.55, WM trades near 32.0x trailing EPS, 25.3x free cash flow per share, and about 9.1x book value. This WM AI stock analysis is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$226.55 close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$90.56 billion reported and verified
AI score
76 / 100
Rating
High-quality essential services compounder with pricing power, margin expansion, integration upside, and a full valuation
Trend status
Constructive but consolidating after a post-earnings pullback, with price near the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and momentum neutral
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | WM provides recurring collection, transfer, landfill, recycling, renewable energy, and healthcare waste services that customers need regardless of the economic cycle. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from dense routes, landfill permits, local scale, customer contracts, regulatory complexity, and capital requirements that make replication slow and expensive. | High |
| Management | CEO Jim Fish and the team delivered margin expansion, higher free cash flow, and leverage back inside target in Q2 2026, but the next proof point is converting recycling, renewable natural gas, and healthcare assets into returns above the cost of capital. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue rose to $25.67 billion, Q2 2026 operating EBITDA grew 5.5% with a 40 basis point margin gain, and first half free cash flow of $2.02 billion grew more than 56% year over year. | High |
| Valuation | At $226.55, WM screens expensive for an industrial services compounder at about 32.0x trailing EPS, 25.3x free cash flow per share, and a 3.9% free cash flow yield. | High |
| Technical trend | Daily technicals are constructive but consolidating because price sits just above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a post-earnings pullback, with RSI near neutral. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include volume softness behind the narrowed revenue outlook, valuation compression, debt, interest cost, landfill and environmental liabilities, recycling commodity swings, RNG connection timing, integration costs, and inflation. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because reported data is well sourced. Forecast confidence is medium because the share price outcome depends heavily on the terminal multiple. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | WM is a strong business, but the stock needs steady price-cost spread, margin expansion, and successful healthcare and sustainability returns to justify the current premium. | Medium |
WM AI stock forecast
The WM AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $226.55 July 31 close, trailing EPS of $7.07, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The audited model produced a bearish point near $180, a base point near $242, and a bullish point near $319 before dividends. For comparison, the 28-analyst consensus on StockAnalysis carries a Buy rating with an average price target of $260.64.
$305 to $330
More likely if core collection and disposal keeps a favorable price-cost spread, Healthcare Solutions margin expansion continues, the two delayed RNG plants connect to pipelines by year end, recycling volumes keep growing, and investors keep valuing WM in a low-to-mid 30s earnings multiple range.
$235 to $250
More likely if EPS compounds near 7% to 8%, pricing offsets labor and fleet costs, the full year collection and disposal volume decline stays near 1%, free cash flow remains near the recent run rate, and the market values WM around a low-30s earnings multiple.
$175 to $190
More likely if volumes weaken further, recycling commodities and renewable fuel credits fall, Stericycle synergies arrive slowly, environmental or debt costs rise, or investors re-rate WM closer to a mid-20s earnings multiple.
WM AI technical analysis
WM AI technical analysis is constructive but consolidating as of the August 2026 cutoff. The $226.55 close sits just above the 50-day moving average near $225.33 and the 200-day moving average near $223.19, while RSI near 43 indicates neutral momentum after the post-earnings pullback.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $226.55 | July 31, 2026 closing price used for market-cap and valuation verification. |
| Immediate support | $223 to $225 | Area where the 50-day and 200-day moving averages converge at $223.19 to $225.33. |
| Deeper support | $212 to $215 | June 2026 swing-low zone and a key test of whether the longer-term uptrend remains intact. |
| Near resistance | $236 to $240 | Late July consolidation zone that buyers need to reclaim after the earnings-driven drop. |
| Higher resistance | $242 to $248 | July 17 rebound high near $247.15 and the 52-week high reference of $248.13. |
| Moving averages | 50-day about $225.33, 200-day about $223.19 | StockAnalysis statistics show price just above both major moving averages as of the cutoff. |
| Momentum | RSI about 43.4 | Neutral momentum after the pullback, with no overbought condition as a constraint. |
| Volume | 20-day average about 1.79 million shares | The July 30 drop printed on above-average volume near 2.92 million shares, so stabilization needs follow-through. |
| Volatility | Beta about 0.45 | StockAnalysis lists low beta, and the 52-week range of $194.11 to $248.13 frames the longer-term band. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $212 | A durable break below the June lows would weaken the constructive trend and shift attention to valuation reset risk. |
WM AI trading strategy
The WM AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It connects trend signals to price-cost spread, collection volumes, landfill pricing, Stericycle integration, free cash flow, debt, and capital allocation.
Look for WM to hold the $223 to $225 moving-average area and then reclaim $236 to $240 while Q2 momentum continues, including positive price-cost spread, operating EBITDA margin expansion near 31%, and stable collection and disposal demand.
A failed reclaim above resistance or a close below the 200-day area should lower setup confidence, especially if paired with weaker volume, a further revenue outlook cut, or integration cost pressure.
If WM pulls back toward $212 to $215 while reported cash flow, pricing, and integration milestones remain intact, compare the lower price with updated EPS, debt, and free cash flow expectations.
Do not treat a decline as automatically attractive if it reflects landfill liability revisions, Healthcare Solutions margin disappointment, higher debt costs, or a broad multiple reset for defensive compounders.
Track collection and disposal operating EBITDA margin, core price, yield, volume, recycling commodity prices, renewable fuel credits, RNG connection timing, Healthcare Solutions SG&A, capex, free cash flow, dividends, buybacks, and leverage.
Position sizing should reflect that a necessary service business can still disappoint investors if volume softness and valuation compression overwhelm steady earnings growth.
Investment research summary
Customers pay WM to remove, transfer, dispose, recycle, treat, and recover value from waste streams that homes, businesses, municipalities, and healthcare facilities cannot ignore. The business works when route density, landfill access, service reliability, and pricing discipline compound together.
WM has a wide moat from landfill permits, route density, local scale, customer relationships, fleet and transfer infrastructure, regulatory knowledge, and capital intensity. The moat is strongest where landfill scarcity and municipal contracts limit new entrants.
The thesis fails if volume softness worsens, debt and capex absorb too much cash, environmental liabilities rise, Stericycle synergies disappoint, recycling spreads or renewable fuel credits compress, or the market stops paying a premium multiple for defensive waste earnings.
Management has balanced pricing, automation, dividends, repurchases, tuck-in acquisitions, renewable natural gas, recycling, and healthcare waste. Q2 2026 showed margin and cash flow gains, but the key question is whether these investments keep producing cash returns above the cost of capital.
Solid waste is a slow-growth essential service with local oligopoly features. Long-term tailwinds include recycling automation, landfill gas monetization, renewable fuel credits, medical waste needs, and customer pressure for compliant disposal.
The current price embeds a strong view of WM as a premium compounder. The base-case scenario offers limited upside unless EPS grows steadily and the market maintains a low-30s earnings multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price reference | $226.55 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis market data | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 399.72 million shares | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Market cap verification | $90.56 billion calculated vs $90.56 billion reported | Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $25.67 billion for the period ending June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis financials | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM net income attributable to WM | $2.85 billion with EPS of $7.07 | StockAnalysis financials | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue | $6.684 billion | WM Q2 2026 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted EPS | $2.02 versus consensus of $1.98 | WM Q2 2026 earnings release via TheFly | July 29, 2026 |
| FY2026 revenue guidance | $26.275 billion to $26.475 billion, narrowed about 1.5% | WM Q2 2026 earnings call | July 29, 2026 |
| FY2026 operating EBITDA margin guidance | 31% to 31.2%, raised 20 basis points | WM Q2 2026 earnings call | July 29, 2026 |
| First half 2026 free cash flow | $2.02 billion, up more than 56% year over year | WM Q2 2026 earnings call | July 29, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | $557 million cash, $23.36 billion total debt, net cash of negative $22.80 billion | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Leverage | 2.96x at the end of Q2, inside the 2.5x to 3.0x target | WM Q2 2026 earnings call | July 29, 2026 |
| Dividend | $3.78 annualized, 1.67% yield, 22 years of growth | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average price target of $260.64 from 28 analysts | StockAnalysis forecast | July 31, 2026 |
| Technical moving averages | 50-day about $225.33 and 200-day about $223.19 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
This WM AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong if earnings, valuation multiples, rates, debt costs, regulation, environmental liabilities, or market conditions change.
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