Bullish case
$150 to $185
More likely if subscription revenue reaccelerates, the Microsoft Azure partnership produces visible pipeline, free cash flow keeps growing, and price reclaims $133 then the $145 to $150 breakdown zone on volume.
Commvault Systems, Inc. research snapshot
CVLT AI Stock Analysis
CVLT AI stock analysis currently reads Commvault Systems as a cyber resilience and data protection software company in the middle of a subscription and SaaS transition. The page uses a scenario framework, not a certain price prediction. At the August 3, 2026 cutoff, the stock traded near $120.92, down from a July 30 close of $116.42, with a market capitalization of about $5.01 billion. Commvault beat Q1 FY27 estimates on July 28, 2026 and raised its subscription and margin outlook, but the stock fell sharply because management guided Q2 subscription revenue to dip and the rally had priced in more. A securities class action tied to the January 2026 crash is still pending. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$120.92
Market cap
$5.01 billion
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
Quality business with strong cash flow, elevated legal and valuation risk
Trend status
Short-term downtrend after the post-earnings breakdown, stabilizing near $116 to $121
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- B-level information richness. Commvault has moderate public coverage with filings, earnings calls, analyst actions, and industry data available, but less depth than mega-cap software names.
- bias Check
- Negative news bias is the main risk. The January 2026 crash, the securities class action, and the July 2026 post-earnings drop frame the story as bearish. The analysis separates quote-verified facts from forward-looking judgment and explicitly weighs the bull case of free cash flow growth and the Microsoft partnership.
- ai Confidence
- Medium-high data confidence for quoted prices and reported results
- investment Certainty
- Low to medium. The stock is event-driven and the legal overhang is unresolved, so position decisions require first-party filings, live chart data, and personal risk constraints.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Commvault sells cyber resilience and data protection software with a gross margin near 80%, shifting from perpetual licenses to subscription and SaaS. Q1 FY27 subscription revenue rose 16% year over year. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from enterprise switching costs, long-term contracts, and deep integration with customer IT environments. Competition from Rubrik, Veeam, and Cohesity limits pricing power. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Sanjay Mirchandani has led the cloud transition and the Microsoft Azure partnership. Insider sales clustered in May 2026 and a class action that names senior executives are monitoring flags. | Medium-low |
| Financial trend | Q1 FY27 revenue rose 11% to $314M, subscription grew 16% to $267M, and free cash flow rose 71% to $51M. GAAP net margin stays thin near 6% and Q2 subscription guidance is soft. | Medium |
| Valuation | At roughly 77x trailing GAAP earnings and 23x forward adjusted earnings, the market still prices in durable mid-teens growth. The multiple is far from the January peak but not cheap. | Medium-low |
| Technical trend | After a 92% run from end of March to late July, CVLT broke down on Q1 earnings and now trades below the breakdown zone near $116 to $121. Short-term momentum is negative. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks: the pending securities class action, multiple compression if growth moderates, soft Q2 subscription guidance, and competitive pressure from Rubrik, Veeam, and Cohesity. | Medium |
| AI confidence | Medium-high data confidence for quoted prices, reported results, and analyst targets. Lower confidence for forward returns given the event-driven moves and unresolved litigation. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low to medium certainty because the page gives a research framework, not a personalized buy or sell instruction. | Low to medium |
CVLT AI stock forecast
CVLT AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The CVLT AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $120.92 quote of August 3, 2026 rather than a point target. The bullish case requires subscription revenue to reaccelerate and the Microsoft partnership to show pipeline; the base case assumes steady execution with a legal overhang; the bearish case assumes guidance keeps moderating and the multiple compresses.
Base case
$120 to $150
More likely if subscription growth holds mid-teens, free cash flow stays strong, guidance holds, and the securities class action resolves without material financial damage.
Bearish case
$80 to $115
More likely if subscription guidance falls again, the class action escalates, competition takes cloud-native share, or a close below $115 extends the downtrend toward the $100 area.
CVLT AI technical analysis
CVLT AI Technical Analysis
CVLT AI technical analysis starts from the $120.92 quote of August 3, 2026 and the $116.42 close of July 30, 2026. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, moving averages and live momentum should be confirmed in a charting tool before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $120.92 (Aug 3 intraday), $116.42 (Jul 30 close) | Quotes used for this page as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $115.00 to $116.00 | The July 30 post-earnings low was $115.31. A close below this band opens the path to the $100 area. |
| Near resistance | $130.00 to $133.00 | Concentrated analyst low-end targets (Scotiabank $130, Argus $126, Piper Sandler $133). Reclaiming this zone is the first bullish signal. |
| Secondary resistance | $145.00 to $150.00 | The pre-earnings breakdown level and the RBC Capital target of $150. A close above here would suggest the rally can restart. |
| 52-week high | $198.18 | Set in January 2026 before the Q3 FY26 earnings crash of 31% on January 27, 2026. |
| 52-week low | $71.75 | Set in the March to April 2026 selloff that followed the January breakdown. |
| 50-day moving average | Requires live chart confirmation | Use current chart data before acting. The page does not fetch request-time market data. |
| 200-day moving average | Requires live chart confirmation | Long-term trend confirmation should be checked against a live chart or broker data. |
| Momentum | Short-term negative, positive bounce on Aug 3 | The July 28 breakdown broke the uptrend. The stock is stabilizing near $116 to $121 and needs volume to confirm a base. |
| Volume | July 30 volume 693K vs 782K average | Below-average volume after the spike on the earnings day, which was the heaviest in over six months. |
| Volatility | Elevated after event-driven swings | A 31% drop in January and a 20% drop in July show how fast this stock moves on headlines. |
| Invalidation | Close below $115.00 | A decisive close below $115 would signal the correction is not over and open the $100 area. |
CVLT AI trading strategy
CVLT AI Trading Strategy Framework
The CVLT AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with position sizing, stop levels, and fresh filings or news checks.
Trend-following setup
Wait for CVLT to reclaim $133 and push through the $145 to $150 breakdown zone on volume that confirms buyer demand.
A close below $115 should invalidate the setup.
Mean-reversion setup
If CVLT falls into the $115 to $120 band without a thesis break, compare price action with the next earnings (estimated late October 2026), class action updates, and subscription datapoints.
Do not average down without a predefined maximum loss and a fresh review of the legal and guidance risk.
Fundamental monitor
Track the evidence that matters most for cyber resilience software: subscription revenue growth, free cash flow, FY27 guidance, Microsoft partnership pipeline, and class action developments.
Reduce confidence when price moves are driven by legal or guidance headlines without matching financial evidence.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Commvault sells cyber resilience and data protection software that helps enterprises back up, recover, and secure data across on-premise and cloud environments, with a gross margin near 80% and a growing subscription base.
Moat
The moat comes from enterprise switching costs, long-term contracts, and deep integration with customer IT environments. Competition from Rubrik, Veeam, and Cohesity limits pricing power.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis can fail if subscription growth keeps moderating, the securities class action escalates or damages customer trust, or cloud-native competitors capture the AI-era data workloads.
Management
CEO Sanjay Mirchandani has executed the cloud transition and signed a long-term Microsoft partnership. Insider sales clustered in May 2026 and a class action that names executives are governance monitoring flags.
Industry trend
Cyber resilience and ransomware defense spending is a secular growth driver, and AI is boosting demand for data protection. The shift from legacy backup to cloud-native protection is both the opportunity and the competitive risk.
Valuation and margin of safety
At roughly 77x trailing GAAP earnings and 23x forward adjusted earnings, the market still prices in durable growth. Safety margin is thin if guidance moderates or the legal overhang worsens.
Source-backed data
CVLT Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CVLT price | $116.42 close Jul 30, 2026; $120.92 intraday Aug 3, 2026 | Current quote snapshot from Yahoo Finance and Google Finance cross-check | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $5.01B, verified as $120.92 x 41.44M shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification, Google Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Exchange | NasdaqGS | Yahoo Finance quote page | August 3, 2026 |
| Revenue (TTM) | $1.22B | Cross-validated between Yahoo Finance and Google Finance sum of four quarters (deviation 0.17%) | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 FY27 revenue | $314.13M, +11% YoY, beat $310.44M estimate | Commvault IR press release and Motley Fool report | July 28, 2026 |
| Q1 FY27 subscription revenue | $267M, +16% YoY | Commvault IR press release via Motley Fool report | July 28, 2026 |
| Net income (TTM) | $68.3M | Yahoo Finance statistics, matched to Google Finance quarterly sum | August 3, 2026 |
| Free cash flow (TTM) | $303.74M levered; Q1 FY27 FCF $51M, +71% YoY | Yahoo Finance statistics and Motley Fool report | July 28, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 41.44M | Google Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash (mrq) | $929.84M | Yahoo Finance statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Forward P/E | 22.73 | Yahoo Finance statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Trailing P/E and price/sales | 77.12 trailing P/E; 4.33 P/S (ttm) | Yahoo Finance statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | 9 Buy, 4 Hold, 0 Sell; average target $161.67 (low $130, high $182) | Google Finance analyst ratings and price targets | August 3, 2026 |
| Securities class action | Filed in 2026, class period April 29, 2025 to January 26, 2026, after the 31% stock drop on January 27, 2026 | PRNewswire class action notice and Kessler Topaz case page | June 16, 2026 |
| Scenario valuation input status | Price, shares, revenue, and net income cross-validated across sources. Earnings and cash data are from single-source statistics pages and should be checked against 10-K before investment use. | Source gap disclosure | August 3, 2026 |
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This CVLT AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of August 3, 2026, may be incomplete, and can be wrong if new filings, market prices, company events, class action outcomes, or macro conditions change.
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