Bullish case
$175 to $220
More likely if Commvault shows accelerating subscription revenue, expanding operating margins, favorable lawsuit resolution, and price reclaims the $175 resistance with sustained volume.
Commvault Systems, Inc. research snapshot
CVLT AI Stock Analysis
CVLT AI stock analysis currently reads Commvault Systems as a cyber resilience and data protection software company transitioning to cloud and SaaS models. The page uses a scenario framework, not a certain price prediction. At the July 12, 2026 cutoff, the quoted price was $150.57, market capitalization was about $6.24 billion, and the key question is whether revenue acceleration and margin expansion can justify the premium multiple after a 31% drawdown from the 52-week high of $200.68. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$150.57
Market cap
$6.24 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Quality business with high valuation risk
Trend status
Downtrend from 52-week high, recovering from correction
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- B-level information richness. Commvault has moderate public company coverage with filings, analyst reports, and industry data available, but less depth than mega-cap tech names.
- bias Check
- The AI bias risk is moderate. The class action lawsuit introduces negative sentiment bias that could distort the fundamental picture. The analysis separates quote-verified facts from forward-looking judgments.
- ai Confidence
- Medium-high data confidence
- investment Certainty
- Low to medium. The stock can be useful for research screens, but position decisions require first-party filings, live chart data, and personal risk constraints.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Commvault sells cyber resilience and data protection software for backup, recovery, threat detection, and cloud data management to enterprise customers. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from enterprise switching costs, long-term contracts, deep integration with customer IT environments, and a #1 Gartner ranking in 5 of 6 use cases for backup and data protection platforms. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Sanjay Mirchandani has led the cloud transition. Management allocates capital toward R&D and sales. The class action lawsuit raises a governance monitoring flag. | Medium-low |
| Financial trend | Revenue is growing in the low to mid teens, FCF generation is strong at $289M TTM, and margins are improving. The net income margin is modest at 6% TTM but trending up. | Medium |
| Valuation | At 95x trailing earnings and 28x forward earnings, the market prices in significant growth acceleration. The 5.7x price/sales and 59x EV/EBITDA suggest limited safety margin. | Medium-low |
| Technical trend | The stock is in a corrective phase after dropping 31% from the 52-week high. Support around $149 and resistance near $175. Live moving averages and momentum should be checked before acting. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks: securities lawsuit overhang, high multiple contraction risk, competitive pressure from Rubrik and Veeam, and slowdown in enterprise IT spending. | Medium |
| AI confidence | Medium-high data confidence for qualitative mapping and quote math. Lower confidence for forward returns given the lawsuit overhang. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low to medium certainty because the page gives a framework, not a personalized buy or sell instruction. | Low to medium |
CVLT AI stock forecast
CVLT AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The CVLT AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $150.57 quote rather than a point target. The bullish case requires evidence of revenue acceleration and successful SaaS transition; the base case assumes mixed execution; the bearish case assumes the lawsuit or competitive pressure materializes as a headwind.
Base case
$120 to $170
More likely if revenue growth stays in the low teens, margins improve gradually, and the stock trades around current expectations while the market awaits clarity on the lawsuit.
Bearish case
$80 to $115
More likely if these risk paths appear: adverse lawsuit outcome, growth deceleration, competitive share loss to Rubrik or Veeam, or technical support at $149 breaks decisively.
CVLT AI technical analysis
CVLT AI Technical Analysis
CVLT AI technical analysis starts from the $150.57 quote. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, moving averages and live momentum should be confirmed in a charting tool before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $150.57 | Current quote used for this page as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $149.00 to $140.00 | Estimated from recent price action. The $149 level is the most recent swing low. Treat as a planning zone, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Near resistance | $165.00 to $175.00 | Estimated from the correction high and analyst target zone. A close above this zone would improve short-term momentum. |
| 52-week high | $200.68 | The high was set before the lawsuit news triggered the 31% correction. |
| 50-day moving average | Requires live chart confirmation | Use current chart data before acting. The page does not fetch request-time market data. |
| 200-day moving average | Requires live chart confirmation | Long-term trend confirmation should be checked against a live chart or broker data. |
| Momentum | Corrective phase with potential basing | The stock is in a downtrend from highs. A period of base-building near support would improve the risk-reward setup. |
| Volume | Below average at 484K (avg 844K) | Below-average volume suggests indecision. A volume spike in either direction would provide confirmation. |
| Volatility | Elevated after lawsuit news | Use position sizing that can tolerate wide daily movement for this ticker. |
| Invalidation | Close below $140.00 | A decisive close below $140 would weaken the short-term setup significantly. |
CVLT AI trading strategy
CVLT AI Trading Strategy Framework
The CVLT AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with position sizing, stop levels, and fresh filings or news checks.
Trend-following setup
Wait for CVLT to hold above $149 support and push through the $165-$175 resistance zone with volume that confirms buyer demand.
A close below $140 or a failed breakout should invalidate the setup.
Mean-reversion setup
If CVLT falls into the $140-$149 support band without a thesis break, compare price action with the next earnings, lawsuit developments, and industry datapoints.
Do not average down without a predefined maximum loss and a fresh review of the business risk.
Fundamental monitor
Track the evidence that matters most for cyber resilience software: subscription revenue growth, margin trajectory, lawsuit resolution, competitive positioning against Rubrik and Veeam, and cash flow generation.
Reduce confidence when price moves are driven by lawsuit headlines without matching financial evidence.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Commvault sells cyber resilience and data protection software that helps enterprises back up, recover, and secure their data across on-premise and cloud environments.
Moat
The moat comes from enterprise switching costs, long-term contracts, deep integration with customer IT environments, and a #1 Gartner ranking in 5 of 6 use cases for backup and data protection platforms.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis can fail if the securities lawsuit damages customer trust or results in material liability, growth decelerates as the legacy backup market shrinks, or competitors like Rubrik capture more cloud-native workloads.
Management
CEO Sanjay Mirchandani has led a cloud transition. Capital allocation focuses on R&D and go-to-market. The class action lawsuit introduces a governance monitoring question.
Industry trend
Cyber resilience spending is a secular growth driver as ransomware and data breaches increase. The shift from legacy backup to cloud-native protection creates both opportunity and competitive risk.
Valuation and margin of safety
At 95x trailing earnings and 28x forward, the market prices in strong growth. Safety margin is thin if growth disappoints or the lawsuit creates an overhang.
Source-backed data
CVLT Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CVLT price | $150.57 | Current quote snapshot from Yahoo Finance and Google Finance cross-check | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $6.24B, verified as $150.57 x 41.42M shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification, Google Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Exchange | NasdaqGS | Yahoo Finance quote page | July 12, 2026 |
| Revenue (TTM) | $1.18B | Cross-validated between Yahoo Finance and Google Finance (deviation 0.17%) | July 12, 2026 |
| Net income (TTM) | $70.66M | Yahoo Finance statistics page | July 12, 2026 |
| Free cash flow (TTM) | $289.54M | Yahoo Finance statistics page | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 41.42M | Google Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash (mrq) | $899.99M | Yahoo Finance statistics page | July 12, 2026 |
| Forward P/E | 28.41 | Yahoo Finance statistics page | July 12, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | 10 Buy, 6 Hold, 0 Sell; avg target $131.64 | Google Finance analyst ratings | July 12, 2026 |
| Financial statement depth | Public filings available, two-source statement checks still required before investment use | Research quality check | July 12, 2026 |
| Scenario valuation input status | EPS, cash, debt, and net income were partially cross-validated. Full two-source check not performed for this batch page. | Source gap disclosure | July 12, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
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This CVLT AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of July 12, 2026, may be incomplete, and can be wrong if new filings, market prices, company events, lawsuit outcomes, or macro conditions change.
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