Rubrik, Inc. research snapshot
RBRK AI stock analysis currently reads Rubrik as a fast-growing cyber resilience platform whose subscription ARR reached $1.57 billion in Q1 fiscal 2027, up 32% year over year, while total revenue rose 39% to $387.1 million. Management beat guidance and raised the full fiscal 2027 outlook, and the stock still carries a Strong Buy analyst consensus with a $95.23 average price target. Yet the market cut the price from roughly $87 in early July to $72.36 on July 31, 2026, RBRK remains GAAP loss-making, and the stock trades at a low free-cash-flow yield. This RBRK AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction or investment advice.
Current price
$72.36 close reference on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$14.89 billion estimated equity value
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
Fast-growing cyber resilience platform with raised FY2027 guidance and improving cash flow, though the price still prices in high growth expectations
Trend status
Corrective above the 200-day moving average but below the 50-day moving average, with momentum cooling after the 2026 decline
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Rubrik sells subscription data security, cyber recovery, identity resilience, and AI operations products to enterprises that need to protect and restore workloads across cloud and on-premises environments. | High |
| Moat | Switching costs, recovery workflows, customer data integrations, security expertise, and partner ecosystems support retention, but larger vendors can bundle adjacent security and backup products. | Medium |
| Management | Management beat Q1 fiscal 2027 guidance, raised the full-year outlook, and improved subscription ARR contribution margin, while capital allocation must still prove it can turn adjusted operating leverage into durable GAAP profitability without excessive dilution. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue was $387.1 million, up 39%, subscription ARR was $1.57 billion, up 32%, and free cash flow margin was 19%. | High |
| Valuation | At the July 31 price reference, equity value was about $14.89 billion, roughly 10.5x trailing revenue, about 9.1x the midpoint of FY2027 revenue guidance, and about 50.7x trailing free cash flow, while GAAP earnings remain negative. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The July 31 close sits below the 50-day moving average near $75.50 and above the 200-day moving average near $66.54, with RSI near 43, after the price fell from roughly $87 in early July. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are slower ARR growth, competition from Commvault, Cohesity, Dell, Veeam, Microsoft and security platforms, retention pressure, dilution, and valuation compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Company-reported operating data is well documented, while market-derived valuation and technical readings are inherently time-sensitive. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | RBRK has credible growth and cash-flow progress, but it is not a high-certainty bargain at a premium revenue multiple after a sharp 2026 price correction. | Medium-low |
RBRK AI stock forecast
The RBRK AI stock forecast starts with a $72.36 July 31 price reference and raised management FY2027 non-GAAP EPS guidance of $0.25 to $0.35. A three-year scenario model using a $0.30 starting EPS produces approximately $16 bearish, $32 base, and $59 bullish outputs under the stated growth and multiple assumptions. All three modeled outcomes sit below the current quote, which shows how much of the value still depends on earnings expanding beyond the near-term guidance path.
$55 to $70
More likely if subscription ARR compounds above 30%, the raised FY2027 guidance is exceeded, free cash flow keeps growing, net retention stays strong, and the market re-rates future earnings closer to the consensus price target near $95.
$30 to $45
More likely if ARR growth moderates gradually, revenue reaches the raised guidance, adjusted profitability improves, and investors accept a lower but still elevated valuation multiple as the company matures.
$15 to $25
More likely if new ARR slows, enterprise spending weakens, competitors bundle comparable products, dilution rises, or the valuation resets toward a less aggressive earnings multiple.
RBRK AI technical analysis
RBRK AI technical analysis uses market data available through July 31, 2026. The $72.36 close reference sat below the 50-day moving average near $75.50 and above the 200-day moving average near $66.54. RSI was 43.03, showing cooling momentum after the price fell from roughly $87 in early July, and the next earnings report is scheduled for September 8, 2026.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $72.36 | July 31, 2026 close reference used for market-cap and valuation math. |
| Immediate resistance | $75 to $76 | The 50-day moving average was $75.50 in the July 31 market-data snapshot. |
| Major trend support | $66 to $67 | The 200-day moving average was $66.54 and is the key longer-term trend reference. |
| Next resistance | $87 to $90 | The early-July 2026 level near $87 is a supply zone that could cap a rebound. |
| Major resistance | $99 to $100 | The 52-week high reference was $99.75. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $75.50, 200-day $66.54 | Price is below the 50-day and above the 200-day, a corrective rather than fully bullish structure as of the data cutoff. |
| Momentum | RSI 43.03 | Cooling momentum after the July decline; a break back above the 50-day would strengthen the read. |
| Volume | 20-day average 2.50 million shares | Breakouts or breakdowns are more credible when volume expands versus this reference. |
| Volatility | 52-week range $42.25 to $99.75 | The wide range shows that position sizing and event risk matter. |
| Invalidation | Close below $66, then the $60 area | A sustained break below the 200-day area challenges the trend setup; a close below $66 weakens the longer-term support structure. |
RBRK AI trading strategy
This RBRK AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It combines technical confirmation with subscription ARR, revenue, free cash flow, guidance, competition, and valuation checkpoints.
Consider a trend framework only after price reclaims the $75 to $76 50-day zone and quarterly subscription ARR and revenue continue to meet or exceed the raised management guidance.
Define a position size and exit rule before entry. A close back below the $66 to $67 200-day area is an early warning; a sustained break below $66 invalidates the longer-term trend premise.
A pullback toward the $66 to $67 area is only a research trigger if volume contracts on the decline and the underlying ARR, cash-flow, and customer metrics remain intact.
Do not treat a lower price alone as value. Reassess earnings guidance, competitive losses, dilution, and valuation before assuming support will hold.
Track subscription ARR growth, customers above $100,000 of subscription ARR, revenue guidance, free cash flow, gross margin, share count, net retention, and major competitor announcements, with the next earnings date on September 8, 2026.
Reduce confidence if ARR growth decelerates materially, guidance is cut, free cash flow reverses, share count rises faster than expected, or the security software multiple compresses.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Rubrik to secure, monitor, and recover business data, identities, and workloads after cyber incidents across cloud and enterprise environments. The recurring subscription model shifts value toward ongoing resilience rather than one-time backup hardware.
Recovery workflows, security integrations, customer data environments, partner relationships, and cyber-resilience know-how create switching costs. The moat is real but contested because large security and infrastructure vendors can bundle adjacent services.
The thesis fails if growth decelerates before profitability is durable, competitors compress pricing, a major recovery failure harms trust, stock-based compensation dilutes owners, or the market stops paying a premium multiple for software growth, as the early-July to late-July decline already showed.
Recent execution shows growth plus improving contribution margin, free cash flow, and a raised full-year outlook. The remaining test is converting non-GAAP momentum into durable GAAP economics while maintaining product innovation and capital discipline.
Ransomware, hybrid cloud complexity, identity attacks, and enterprise AI governance make resilience a durable spending category. The opportunity is long-term, but it also attracts well-funded platform competitors.
The current price still embeds a strong continuation of ARR growth and expanding margins even after the correction. A margin of safety would require either a lower entry valuation or evidence that future earnings can exceed the near-term guidance path.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2027 revenue | $387.1 million, up 39% year over year | Rubrik Q1 FY2027 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Subscription ARR | $1.57 billion as of April 30, 2026, up 32% year over year | Rubrik Q1 FY2027 results | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 revenue and net loss | $1.316 billion revenue and $348.8 million GAAP net loss | Rubrik FY2026 Form 10-K | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and short-term investments | $1.75 billion as of April 30, 2026 | Rubrik Q1 FY2027 results | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2027 outlook | Raised to $1,638 million to $1,648 million revenue and $293 million to $303 million free cash flow | Rubrik Q1 FY2027 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Price, market cap, shares and technical references | $72.36 close, $14.89 billion market cap, 205.83 million shares, 50-day MA $75.50, 200-day MA $66.54, RSI 43.03 | StockAnalysis market data | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy from 27 analysts with an average price target of $95.23, up 31.6% from the July 31 close | StockAnalysis analyst forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 0.03% market-cap verification variance; PS about 10.5x trailing revenue, about 9.1x the FY2027 revenue midpoint, P/FCF about 50.7x; negative TTM EPS means P/E is not meaningful | financial_rigor.py verification | August 2, 2026 |
This RBRK AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios use public data available as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong if growth, margins, competition, dilution, security outcomes, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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