CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
CRWD AI stock analysis currently reads CrowdStrike as a premier cloud-native cybersecurity platform riding the AI security demand cycle, with Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue of $1.386 billion, up 25.6%, a first GAAP profitable quarter, and trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $1.505 billion. The caution is valuation discipline: after the July 2, 2026 four-for-one split, CRWD closed at $190.86 on July 31, 2026, well below the July 15 all-time high of $217.50, and the split-adjusted equity value near $194.34 billion still prices in premium multiples. The CRWD AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction, and depends on whether ARR growth, Falcon Flex adoption, AI security demand, free cash flow conversion, and post-outage customer trust keep supporting the premium.
Current price
$190.86 split-adjusted close
Market cap
$194.34 billion split-adjusted equity value
AI score
75 / 100
Rating
High-quality AI cybersecurity leader with a demanding valuation after a strong 2026 rally
Trend status
Uptrend intact above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, but pulled back about 12% from the July 15 all-time high of $217.50
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | CrowdStrike sells Falcon cloud security modules for endpoint, cloud, identity, exposure management, next-generation SIEM, managed detection, and AI-driven threat defense on a subscription platform. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from telemetry scale, Falcon module breadth, threat intelligence, incident response credibility, switching costs, partner integrations, and a platform model that expands wallet share through Falcon Flex. | Medium-high |
| Management | Founder and CEO George Kurtz remains the defining operator and public face, and the July 2026 appointment of AJ Shipley as Chief Product Officer adds product leadership depth. Key-person risk and the handling of the 2024 outage remain central governance tests. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue was $1.386 billion, up 25.6%, with a first GAAP profitable quarter of about $27.8 million. Trailing twelve-month revenue was $5.094 billion and free cash flow was $1.505 billion at a 29.6% margin. | High |
| Valuation | At $190.86, CRWD traded near 38x trailing revenue, about 129x trailing free cash flow, and roughly 146x to 155x forward non-GAAP earnings, leaving little room for execution error. | Medium |
| Technical trend | CRWD traded above the split-adjusted 50-day moving average near $181 and the 200-day near $133, but sat about 12% below the July 15 intraday high of $217.50 with a neutral RSI near 54. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are valuation compression, slower net new ARR, platform competition from Microsoft, Palo Alto Networks, SentinelOne, Zscaler, and Fortinet, litigation or trust damage, and cybersecurity budget rotation. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high for company financials and the July 31 quote, and medium for market-derived ratios until all data vendors fully normalize the stock split. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | CRWD looks like an elite cybersecurity compounder, but the stock is not a high-certainty bargain unless growth and free cash flow keep absorbing an aggressive valuation. | Medium |
CRWD AI stock forecast
The CRWD AI stock forecast uses the $190.86 split-adjusted price reference, consensus FY2027 non-GAAP EPS near $1.23, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The audited model produced a bearish area near $117, a base area near $206, and a bullish area near $335 before buybacks, dilution, or multiple changes beyond the stated assumptions. These are scenario ranges, not promises.
$320 to $350
More likely if ARR growth accelerates, net new ARR continues to improve, Falcon Flex deepens module adoption, AI security demand expands budgets, free cash flow stays above 30% of revenue, and investors hold a premium earnings multiple near 150x.
$195 to $220
More likely if split-adjusted EPS compounds around the low to mid teens, revenue guidance stays on the high-teens to low-20s growth path, free cash flow conversion stays strong, and the market accepts a still-rich but lower 110x earnings multiple.
$110 to $125
More likely if net new ARR slows, platform consolidation favors Microsoft or Palo Alto Networks, outage-related trust costs persist, free cash flow growth fades, or CRWD re-rates toward an 80x earnings multiple.
CRWD AI technical analysis
CRWD AI technical analysis is constructive but extended as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. S&P Global data via StockAnalysis showed a July 31, 2026 split-adjusted close of $190.86, up 3.05%, about 12% below the $217.50 all-time high reached intraday on July 15. The 50-day moving average sat near $181.40 and the 200-day near $132.65, with RSI near 54.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $190.86 | Split-adjusted July 31, 2026 close used for market cap and valuation math. |
| 52-week high | $217.50 | Intraday high reached July 15, 2026, before the late July pullback. |
| 52-week low | $85.68 | Split-adjusted low over the prior year, well below the current price. |
| Near resistance | $200 to $203 | Early to mid July closes clustered in this zone and acted as a ceiling before the July 21 decline. |
| Major resistance | $209 to $218 | The July 6 and July 15 highs plus the $217.50 all-time high define the upper supply zone. |
| Immediate support | $181 to $185 | The 50-day moving average near $181.40 and the July 30 to July 31 low zone overlap here. |
| Deeper support | $174 to $179 | The late July consolidation lows and the 20-day EMA reference sit in this area. |
| Major support | $132 to $135 | The 200-day moving average near $132.65 is the major trend reset area. |
| Moving averages | 20-day near $192, 50-day near $181, 200-day near $133 | Price is above the 50-day and 200-day averages, which supports the trend read, but the 20-day reference sits near the current price. |
| Momentum | Neutral, RSI near 54 | The July rally stalled after the all-time high and momentum indicators reset before the late July bounce. |
| Volume | 7.63 million shares on July 31 vs 8.43 million 20-day average | The July 31 bounce came on slightly below-average volume, so breakouts above resistance should be confirmed by volume. |
| Volatility | High-growth software volatility | CRWD can move sharply around earnings, litigation headlines, cybersecurity incidents, AI security news, and security software sector rotation. |
| Invalidation | Close below $174, then below $168 | A close below the late July lows would weaken near-term momentum, while a break of the 200-day near $133 would challenge the trend-following setup. |
CRWD AI trading strategy
The CRWD AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects ARR growth, Falcon Flex adoption, AI security demand, free cash flow, outage trust repair, valuation discipline, and technical invalidation levels.
Watch for CRWD to hold above $185 and reclaim the $200 to $203 zone on above-average volume while the next earnings update confirms ARR growth, net new ARR acceleration, free cash flow strength, and durable guidance.
A failed breakout followed by a close below the 50-day area near $181 should reduce setup confidence, especially if management commentary points to slower Falcon Flex adoption or weaker enterprise security budgets.
If CRWD pulls back toward the $174 to $185 moving-average band without a negative ARR or free cash flow reset, compare the new price with split-adjusted EPS guidance, annualized free cash flow, and peer cybersecurity multiples.
Do not treat a pullback as benign if outage-related liabilities rise, customer trust indicators weaken, net new ARR slows, or Microsoft and Palo Alto Networks gain share through bundled platform pricing.
Track ARR, net new ARR, subscription revenue, gross retention, net retention, module adoption, Falcon Flex ARR, free cash flow margin, litigation updates, security incident quality, share count after the split, and buyback activity.
Position sizing should reflect that CRWD is a strong cybersecurity business priced for excellence, not a guaranteed AI security winner.
Investment research summary
Customers pay CrowdStrike to prevent, detect, investigate, and respond to cyber threats across endpoints, identities, cloud workloads, logs, and managed security operations through one cloud-native Falcon platform.
CrowdStrike benefits from telemetry scale, rapid threat intelligence, module breadth, switching costs, incident response reputation, and the ability to sell more modules into existing customers. The moat can narrow if bundled platforms reduce the perceived need for a best-of-breed endpoint and XDR vendor.
The thesis fails if the 2024 outage has a longer trust tail than bulls expect, if ARR decelerates despite AI security demand, if litigation costs or remediation weigh on margins, or if valuation compresses faster than earnings and free cash flow grow.
George Kurtz is a founder-operator with deep cybersecurity experience and a clear platform vision, and the July 2026 Chief Product Officer appointment adds product bench strength. The management test is whether CrowdStrike keeps compounding trust, execution, and customer expansion after a highly visible operational failure.
CrowdStrike sits in endpoint protection, XDR, cloud security, identity protection, next-generation SIEM, managed detection, and AI security. AI increases attacker scale and defender demand, but also raises buyer expectations and competitive intensity.
At $190.86, the market expects rapid ARR growth, premium free cash flow, and durable AI security relevance. Margin of safety improves if EPS and free cash flow compound while the multiple normalizes, or if the stock resets toward moving-average support without damage to ARR or customer trust.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CRWD split-adjusted quote reference | $190.86 close on July 31, 2026, up 3.05% | StockAnalysis (S&P Global Market Intelligence) | August 2, 2026 |
| Market cap verification | $194.34 billion reported, matching $190.86 price times 1.0183 billion shares | StockAnalysis plus financial_rigor.py verify-market-cap | August 2, 2026 |
| Stock split | Four-for-one forward split effective July 2, 2026 | StockAnalysis stock split history | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue and net income | $1.386 billion revenue, up 25.6%, with first GAAP profitable quarter of about $27.8 million | CrowdStrike Q1 fiscal 2027 results via CNBC and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 fiscal 2027 cash flow | $590.94 million operating cash flow, $493.31 million free cash flow | StockAnalysis quarterly cash flow (Fiscal.ai) | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 revenue and GAAP net loss | $4.812 billion revenue, up 21.7%, and a $162.5 million GAAP net loss | StockAnalysis financials (Fiscal.ai) | August 2, 2026 |
| Trailing twelve-month revenue and free cash flow | $5.094 billion revenue, $1.505 billion free cash flow at a 29.6% margin | StockAnalysis statistics and financials | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $4.55 billion cash and investments, $821 million total debt, $3.73 billion net cash | StockAnalysis balance sheet (Fiscal.ai) | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2027 consensus forecast | $5.95 billion revenue forecast, up 23.6%, and non-GAAP EPS near $1.23 | StockAnalysis forecast (S&P Global and TipRanks) | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus and price targets | Buy consensus with average price target $193.13, low $103.25, high $250 | StockAnalysis analyst summary | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical moving averages and RSI | 50-day SMA near $181.40, 200-day SMA near $132.65, RSI near 54 | StockAnalysis statistics (S&P Global Market Intelligence) | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 38x trailing revenue, 129x trailing free cash flow, and 146x to 155x forward non-GAAP earnings | financial_rigor.py verification | August 2, 2026 |
This CRWD AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong if growth, margins, litigation, security trust, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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