Is CHD a buy according to AI stock analysis?

CHD AI stock analysis does not label Church & Dwight as an automatic buy because business quality is strong but valuation is demanding. The setup is more attractive if organic growth, gross margin, and Miss Mouth and Touchland execution stay on track while the stock offers a better free cash flow yield.

What is the CHD AI stock forecast?

The CHD AI stock forecast uses scenarios, not a fixed prediction: bullish $125 to $135, base $95 to $105, and bearish $60 to $72 over a three-year framework before dividends. The bullish case needs steady organic growth and margin expansion, while the bearish case reflects slower growth and valuation compression.

What technical levels matter for CHD?

The key CHD technical levels are immediate support near $95.58 to $98.03, deeper support near $90.72 to $93.74, near resistance around $99.58 to $99.78, and higher resistance around $101.64 to $102.66. A close below $95.58 weakens the setup, while a reclaim of $99.58 would improve short-term tone.

Can AI predict CHD stock price?

No, AI cannot reliably predict stock prices. AI can organize CHD financial data, valuation math, technical levels, and risk factors, but future price depends on earnings, guidance, consumer demand, rates, market multiples, and investor behavior.

How should I use this CHD AI trading strategy?

Use this CHD AI trading strategy as a research checklist, not personal investment advice. Pair the technical levels with Q3 2026 earnings, organic sales, gross margin, free cash flow, Miss Mouth and Touchland updates, share repurchases, and your own risk limits.

What makes Church & Dwight different from other consumer staples stocks?

Church & Dwight is smaller than the largest global CPG companies but has a focused portfolio of power brands, a long ARM & HAMMER heritage, strong cash conversion, and a history of bolt-on acquisitions. That focus supports quality, but it also means valuation matters when growth is only mid-single-digit.

Church & Dwight Co., Inc. research snapshot

CHD AI Stock Analysis

CHD AI stock analysis currently reads Church & Dwight Co., Inc. as a high-quality consumer staples compounder whose momentum improved after a strong Q2 2026 report on July 31, 2026. The August 2, 2026 data cutoff uses a $98.81 share price, about $23.44 billion verified market cap, TTM EPS near $3.11, TTM free cash flow near $1.12 billion, and Q2 organic sales growth of 5.8%. Church & Dwight raised its full-year outlook: organic sales up about 4% to 5%, adjusted EPS up 6% to 8%, and cash from operations near $1.175 billion, helped by the closed Miss Mouth acquisition. The main caution is valuation. CHD still trades around 31.7x TTM earnings and 21x TTM free cash flow, so the CHD AI stock forecast depends on continued organic growth, margin expansion, and clean integration of Miss Mouth and Touchland. This page is informational research and not investment advice.

Current price

$98.81

Market cap

$23.44 billion verified market cap

AI score

72 / 100

Rating

Improving consumer staples compounder with premium valuation

Trend status

Technically neutral, with price above rising 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages

Data cutoff (updated monthly)

August 4, 2026

Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.

Research quality check

information Richness: A-level information richness. CHD has long public-company history, SEC filings, company releases, investor materials, StockAnalysis financials, S&P Global analyst consensus, and broad consumer staples coverage.
bias Check: The main AI bias risk is over-crediting the strong Q2 momentum while under-weighting the premium multiple, retailer promotion pressure, private-label competition, tariff and Middle East cost headwinds, and execution risk from Miss Mouth and Touchland integration.
ai Confidence: High for FY2025 revenue, Q2 2026 sales and EPS, share count, market-cap math, balance sheet data, valuation ratios, and analyst consensus. Medium for technical levels, category growth durability, and three-year price scenarios.
investment Certainty: Medium. The business has strong brands, improving organic growth, and rising cash generation, but investment certainty is lower than data confidence because the stock price already discounts steady growth and margin improvement.

Quick verdict table

Dimension	Conclusion	Confidence
Business quality	CHD sells household, personal care, and specialty products through brands such as ARM & HAMMER, OxiClean, TheraBreath, Hero, Batiste, Trojan, Touchland, and Miss Mouth.	High
Moat	The moat comes from brand trust, shelf space, retailer relationships, advertising scale, category breadth, and repeat purchase behavior rather than deep technology lock-in.	Medium-high
Management	Rick Dierker delivered Q2 organic growth of 5.8%, raised the 2026 outlook, and closed the Miss Mouth acquisition while keeping dividends and buybacks on track.	High
Financial trend	TTM revenue reached about $6.23 billion, TTM net income about $744.8 million, and Q2 2026 organic sales grew 5.8% with 4.3% volume growth.	High
Valuation	At $98.81, CHD screens near 31.7x TTM EPS, 21x free cash flow per share, 5.4x book value, and 3.8x sales, with a forward PE near 25.3x.	High
Technical trend	ChartMill rated technicals 4/10 and setup 6/10, with neutral long and short term trends, RSI near 53.6, and price above rising 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day averages.	Medium
Risk level	Key risks are valuation compression, retailer price pressure, private-label substitution, tariff and Middle East cost pressure, marketing spend, and acquisition integration.	Medium-high
AI confidence	Descriptive confidence is high because filings, company releases, and StockAnalysis agree on core data. Forecast confidence is lower because consumer demand and multiples can shift.	High data confidence
Investment certainty	CHD is a durable defensive franchise with improving momentum, but current returns depend on execution and whether investors keep paying a premium for mid-single-digit earnings growth.	Medium

CHD AI stock forecast

CHD AI Stock Forecast Scenarios

The CHD AI stock forecast uses the $98.81 cutoff price, TTM EPS near $3.11, and a three-year scenario model run through the financial_rigor.py tool. The model produced a bearish area near $66, a base area near $100, and a bullish area near $132 before dividends. The wide range reflects a defensive business with high valuation sensitivity.

Bullish case

$125 to $135

More likely if organic sales stay near 4% to 5%, gross margin expands, Miss Mouth and Touchland keep scaling, retailer demand holds, and the market values CHD near 30x to 32x forward earnings.

Base case

$95 to $105

More likely if EPS compounds near the mid-single-digit to high-single-digit range, free cash flow remains strong, and the valuation multiple moves closer to a 25x to 27x earnings framework.

Bearish case

$60 to $72

More likely if organic growth slows, retailers resist pricing, tariffs or Middle East costs pressure margins, Miss Mouth or Touchland underdeliver, and CHD is valued closer to a market multiple.

CHD AI technical analysis

CHD AI Technical Analysis

CHD AI technical analysis is neutral as of the July 31, 2026 close. ChartMill showed price at $98.81 with neutral long term and short term trends, price above rising 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day simple moving averages, RSI near 53.6, MACD near 0.15, and ATR near 2.5%. The key test is whether CHD can hold the $95.58 to $98.03 support zone and then clear the $99.58 to $101.64 resistance area.

Level	Value	Why it matters
Current price	$98.81	Latest verified market quote used for valuation and market-cap checks at the July 31, 2026 close.
Immediate support	$95.58 to $98.03	ChartMill flags this support zone from multiple trend lines and important moving averages in several time frames.
Deeper support	$90.72 to $93.74	A second support zone that brackets the 200-day moving average near $93, where buyers have defended price before.
Near resistance	$99.58 to $99.78	ChartMill identified this resistance zone just above the current price, so a reclaim would improve short-term tone.
Higher resistance	$101.64 to $102.66	This reflects a weekly trend line resistance and the upper end of the recent 20-day range near $101.68.
Moving averages	20-day $97.55, 50-day $97.09, 200-day $93.04	Price is above rising 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, which supports a neutral-to-constructive trend read.
Momentum	RSI near 53.6, MACD near 0.15	Momentum is neutral with RSI in the middle band and MACD slightly above zero, leaving room to either side.
Volume	Average volume near 1.94 million shares a day	Liquidity is healthy; earnings-date volume and breakouts above resistance should be read with normal CHD volume context.
Volatility	ATR near 2.5%	ChartMill labeled volatility as medium, so earnings or guidance surprises can move price more than day-to-day range.
Invalidation	Close below $95.58, then below $93	A break below $95.58 weakens the setup. A break below $93 would open a retest of the $90.72 to $93.74 zone.

CHD AI trading strategy

CHD AI Trading Strategy Framework

The CHD AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price action with organic sales, gross margin, advertising spend, retailer demand, Miss Mouth and Touchland integration, buybacks, and the Q3 2026 earnings report expected in late October 2026.

Trend-following setup

Watch for CHD to reclaim and hold $99.58 to $101.64 while Q3 results confirm organic growth near 3%, adjusted EPS near $0.89, and continued gross margin expansion.

A close back below $95.58 should reduce trend confidence, especially if management lowers organic sales, adjusted EPS, cash flow, or margin guidance.

Mean-reversion setup

If CHD pulls toward $90.72 to $93.74 without deterioration in brand share or margin outlook, compare the lower price with normalized earnings power, free cash flow yield, dividend growth, and buybacks.

Do not treat every pullback as value. Recheck valuation against expected EPS growth, retailer pressure, private-label risk, and acquisition execution before adding exposure.

Fundamental monitor

Track organic sales, volume versus price mix, gross margin, marketing expense, adjusted EPS, cash from operations, free cash flow, Miss Mouth and Touchland growth, and share repurchases.

Position sizing should reflect that CHD is defensive but not cheap. Multiple compression can offset good operating results.

Investment research summary

Four-master Research Compression

Business essence

Customers pay CHD for trusted, repeat-purchase household and personal care products that solve everyday needs in laundry, oral care, cat litter, acne care, dry shampoo, stain removal, condoms, baking soda, and specialty products.

Moat

The moat is strongest in ARM & HAMMER heritage, retailer shelf space, advertising scale, innovation cadence, category breadth, and habitual consumer use. It is weaker where private-label alternatives or larger CPG rivals can match price and promotion.

Munger risk inversion

The thesis fails if CHD pays too much for acquisitions, loses shelf space, overestimates Miss Mouth or Touchland growth, faces margin pressure from tariffs and Middle East costs, or its premium multiple compresses faster than EPS grows.

Management

Rick Dierker has emphasized portfolio reshaping, productivity, acquisitions, and shareholder returns. The management test is whether buybacks and M&A create value without weakening the balance sheet or brand investment.

Industry trend

Consumer staples demand is steady but not immune to trade-down behavior. CHD benefits from defensive categories, premium niches, e-commerce growth, and international expansion, while slower category growth and retailer bargaining power limit upside.

Valuation and margin of safety

At $98.81, CHD prices in a strong deal of predictability. Margin of safety depends less on balance sheet survival and more on whether mid-single-digit to high-single-digit EPS growth can justify a high-twenties or low-thirties earnings multiple.

Source-backed data

CHD Data Table

Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.

Metric	Value	Source	Last verified
CHD quote reference	$98.81 close on July 31, 2026	StockAnalysis market quote	August 2, 2026
Market capitalization	$23.44 billion, verified by financial_rigor.py using $98.81 x 237.20 million shares	StockAnalysis share count and financial_rigor.py	August 2, 2026
Q2 2026 net sales and organic growth	Net sales up 1.6% with organic sales up 5.8%, volume up 4.3%, and price mix up 1.5%	Church & Dwight Q2 2026 earnings release	August 2, 2026
Q2 2026 adjusted EPS	$0.89 adjusted EPS, above the $0.88 outlook	Church & Dwight Q2 2026 earnings call	August 2, 2026
FY2025 net sales and net income	$6.203 billion net sales and $736.8 million net income, cross-validated from Church & Dwight and StockAnalysis	StockAnalysis income statement	August 2, 2026
TTM net income and EPS	$744.8 million TTM net income and $3.11 TTM EPS	StockAnalysis income statement	August 2, 2026
TTM free cash flow	$1.115 billion and $4.65 per share	StockAnalysis cash flow statement	August 2, 2026
Cash and total debt	$254.8 million cash and $2.256 billion total debt at June 30, 2026	StockAnalysis balance sheet	August 2, 2026
2026 outlook	Organic sales up about 4% to 5%, adjusted EPS up 6% to 8%, cash from operations near $1.175 billion	Church & Dwight Q2 2026 earnings release	August 2, 2026
Analyst consensus	Buy rating from 21 analysts with an average price target of $104.37	StockAnalysis forecast, S&P Global and TipRanks	August 2, 2026
Technical indicator snapshot	Technical rating 4/10, setup 6/10, neutral trends, RSI 53.62, MACD 0.15, ATR 2.5%	ChartMill technical analysis	August 2, 2026

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This CHD AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a personalized recommendation. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026, and can be wrong if earnings, valuation multiples, consumer demand, tariffs, input costs, acquisition execution, or market conditions change.