Bullish case
$110 to $120
More likely if organic sales stay near 3% to 4%, gross margin expands, Touchland keeps scaling, exited businesses stop masking underlying growth, and the market values CHD near 30x forward earnings.
Church & Dwight Co., Inc. research snapshot
CHD AI Stock Analysis
CHD AI stock analysis currently reads Church & Dwight Co., Inc. as a high-quality consumer staples compounder with durable power brands, strong free cash flow, and a refreshed portfolio after the 2025 Touchland acquisition and vitamin business exit. The July 8, 2026 data cutoff uses a $98.95 share price, about $23.45 billion verified market cap, TTM EPS near $3.04, TTM free cash flow near $1.07 billion, and Q1 2026 organic sales growth of 5.0%. The main caution is valuation. CHD trades around 32.6x TTM earnings and 22.4x TTM free cash flow, so the CHD AI stock forecast depends on continued organic growth, margin expansion, and clean execution in the reshaped portfolio. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$98.95
Market cap
$23.45 billion verified market cap
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Defensive brand portfolio with premium valuation risk
Trend status
Technically weak to neutral, with price below declining 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. CHD has long public-company history, SEC filings, company releases, investor materials, StockAnalysis financials, Macrotrends history, and broad consumer staples coverage.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias risk is over-crediting brand quality while under-weighting the current valuation multiple, retailer pressure, private-label competition, tariff costs, marketing spending, and execution risk from Touchland integration and exited businesses.
- ai Confidence
- High for FY2025 revenue, FY2025 net income, Q1 2026 sales, share count, market-cap math, balance sheet data, and valuation ratios. Medium for technical levels, category growth durability, and three-year price scenarios.
- investment Certainty
- Medium. The business has strong brands and cash generation, but investment certainty is lower than data confidence because the stock price already discounts steady growth and margin improvement.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | CHD sells household, personal care, and specialty products through brands such as ARM & HAMMER, OxiClean, TheraBreath, Hero, Batiste, Trojan, and Touchland. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from brand trust, shelf space, retailer relationships, advertising scale, category breadth, and repeat purchase behavior rather than deep technology lock-in. | Medium-high |
| Management | Rick Dierker continues to focus on portfolio pruning, acquisitions, innovation, productivity, dividends, and buybacks, including $900 million of repurchases in 2025. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 net sales rose 1.6% to $6.20 billion, net income rose to $736.8 million, and Q1 2026 organic sales grew 5.0% despite reported sales being nearly flat. | High |
| Valuation | At $98.95, CHD screens near 32.6x TTM EPS, 22.4x free cash flow per share, 5.7x book value, and 3.8x sales. | High |
| Technical trend | ChartMill flags both short-term and long-term trend indicators as down, with RSI near 40.39 and price below declining 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day averages. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are valuation compression, slower category demand, retailer price pressure, private-label substitution, tariff and input-cost pressure, marketing spend, and acquisition execution. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because filings, company releases, and StockAnalysis agree on core data. Forecast confidence is lower because consumer demand and multiples can shift. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | CHD is a durable defensive franchise, but current returns depend on execution and whether investors keep paying a premium for mid-single-digit earnings growth. | Medium |
CHD AI stock forecast
CHD AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The CHD AI stock forecast uses the $98.95 cutoff price, TTM EPS near $3.04, and a three-year scenario model. The audited model produced a bearish area near $51.50, a base area near $85.50, and a bullish area near $114.90 before dividends. The wide range reflects a defensive business with high valuation sensitivity.
Base case
$80 to $90
More likely if EPS compounds near the mid-single-digit range, free cash flow remains strong, but the valuation multiple moves closer to a 25x earnings framework.
Bearish case
$50 to $60
More likely if organic growth slows, retailers resist pricing, tariffs or input costs pressure margins, Touchland underdelivers, and CHD is valued closer to a market multiple.
CHD AI technical analysis
CHD AI Technical Analysis
CHD AI technical analysis is weak to neutral as of the July 8, 2026 cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a July 7 close of $98.95, while ChartMill flagged a down long-term trend, a down short-term trend, price below declining 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day simple moving averages, RSI near 40.39, MACD near -0.12, and ATR near 1.78%. The key test is whether CHD can reclaim the $100 to $103 area and then clear the resistance zones above $104.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $98.95 | Latest verified market quote used for valuation and market-cap checks at the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Immediate support | $96 to $98 | This band brackets recent closes and is the first area bulls need to defend after the July 7 rebound. |
| Deeper support | $91.50 to $92.70 | ChartMill identified a resistance zone near this area, which can become a support reference if price holds above it. |
| Near resistance | $100 to $103 | A reclaim of this area would improve short-term tone after the stock traded below declining moving averages. |
| Higher resistance | $104 to $110 | This area reflects where a premium consumer staples stock may face renewed valuation debate if momentum improves. |
| Moving averages | 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day trends flagged down | ChartMill reported price below declining 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, which keeps trend confidence muted. |
| Momentum | RSI near 40.39, MACD near -0.12 | Momentum is not deeply oversold on RSI, but MACD remained negative at the data cutoff. |
| Volume | Recent quote volume near 1.58 million shares on July 6 | Breaks above resistance or below support should be compared with normal CHD liquidity and earnings-date volume. |
| Volatility | ATR near 1.78% | ChartMill labeled ATR as low volatility, so earnings or guidance surprises can matter more than day-to-day range. |
| Invalidation | Close below $96, then below $92 | A break below $96 weakens the rebound setup. A break below $92 would keep the stock in a lower technical range. |
CHD AI trading strategy
CHD AI Trading Strategy Framework
The CHD AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price action with organic sales, gross margin, advertising spend, retailer demand, Touchland integration, buybacks, and the July 31, 2026 earnings date.
Trend-following setup
Watch for CHD to reclaim $100 to $103 and then hold that range while Q2 results confirm organic growth, gross margin expansion, and steady cash generation.
A close back below $96 should reduce trend confidence, especially if management lowers organic sales, adjusted EPS, cash flow, or margin guidance.
Mean-reversion setup
If CHD pulls toward $92 without a deterioration in brand share or margin outlook, compare the lower price with normalized earnings power, free cash flow yield, dividend growth, and buybacks.
Do not treat every pullback as value. Recheck valuation against expected EPS growth, retailer pressure, private-label risk, and acquisition execution before adding exposure.
Fundamental monitor
Track organic sales, volume versus price mix, gross margin, marketing expense, adjusted EPS, cash from operations, free cash flow, Touchland growth, exited-business drag, and share repurchases.
Position sizing should reflect that CHD is defensive but not cheap. Multiple compression can offset good operating results.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Customers pay CHD for trusted, repeat-purchase household and personal care products that solve everyday needs in laundry, oral care, cat litter, acne care, dry shampoo, condoms, baking soda, and specialty products.
Moat
The moat is strongest in ARM & HAMMER heritage, retailer shelf space, advertising scale, innovation cadence, category breadth, and habitual consumer use. It is weaker where private-label alternatives or larger CPG rivals can match price and promotion.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis fails if CHD pays too much for acquisitions, loses shelf space, overestimates Touchland growth, faces margin pressure from tariffs and input costs, or its premium multiple compresses faster than EPS grows.
Management
Rick Dierker has emphasized portfolio reshaping, productivity, acquisitions, and shareholder returns. The management test is whether buybacks and M&A create value without weakening the balance sheet or brand investment.
Industry trend
Consumer staples demand is steady but not immune to trade-down behavior. CHD benefits from defensive categories, premium niches, and international expansion, while slower category growth and retailer bargaining power limit upside.
Valuation and margin of safety
At $98.95, CHD prices in a strong deal of predictability. Margin of safety depends less on balance sheet survival and more on whether mid-single-digit EPS growth can justify a high-twenties or low-thirties earnings multiple.
Source-backed data
CHD Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHD quote reference | $98.95 close on July 7, 2026 | StockAnalysis market quote | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $23.45 billion, verified by financial_rigor.py using $98.95 x 236.94 million shares | StockAnalysis share count and financial_rigor.py | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net sales | $6.203 billion, cross-validated from Church & Dwight FY2025 release and StockAnalysis | Church & Dwight FY2025 release | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $736.8 million, cross-validated from Church & Dwight FY2025 release and StockAnalysis | StockAnalysis income statement | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net sales and organic growth | $1.469 billion reported net sales, up 0.2%, with organic sales up 5.0% | Church & Dwight Q1 2026 release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 EPS | $0.91 reported EPS and $0.95 adjusted EPS | Church & Dwight Q1 2026 release | July 8, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $1.067 billion and $4.41 per share | StockAnalysis cash flow statement | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and total debt | $503.4 million cash and $2.206 billion total debt at March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis balance sheet | July 8, 2026 |
| 2026 outlook | Net sales down 1.5% to 0.5%, organic sales up 3% to 4%, adjusted EPS up 5% to 8%, cash from operations about $1.15 billion | Church & Dwight Q1 2026 release | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical indicator snapshot | Long-term trend down, short-term trend down, RSI 40.39, MACD -0.12, ATR 1.78% | ChartMill technical analysis | July 8, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
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This CHD AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a personalized recommendation. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 8, 2026, and can be wrong if earnings, valuation multiples, consumer demand, tariffs, input costs, acquisition execution, or market conditions change.