Charter Communications, Inc. research snapshot
CHTR AI stock analysis currently reads Charter Communications as a scaled U.S. broadband and cable operator with large cash flow, valuable Spectrum distribution, and a growing mobile bundle, but also heavy debt, weak video trends, pressure from fixed wireless and fiber competition, and a pending Cox transaction that adds integration and leverage questions. The CHTR AI stock forecast is scenario-based rather than a precise price prediction. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, the stock screens statistically cheap on earnings and free cash flow, but the market is discounting flat revenue, capital intensity, customer losses, and balance-sheet risk.
Current price
$138.02
Market cap
$19.12 billion verified market cap
AI score
54 / 100
Rating
Cash-generative broadband operator, high leverage and subscriber risk
Trend status
Bearish long-term technical trend with a short-term rebound attempt near the 20-day average
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Charter earns revenue by selling residential and commercial internet, video, voice, mobile, advertising, and related connectivity services under the Spectrum brand. | High |
| Moat | Local network scale, dense passings, Spectrum brand reach, bundled broadband and mobile offers, and high replacement cost support the moat, but competition from fiber and fixed wireless has narrowed it. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Chris Winfrey is focused on network upgrades, rural expansion, mobile convergence, pricing and packaging, customer satisfaction, and the Cox transaction. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue fell 0.6% to $54.774 billion while net income attributable to Charter shareholders was $4.987 billion. Q1 2026 revenue fell 1.0% to $13.6 billion and net income attributable to Charter shareholders was $1.163 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $138.02 and TTM EPS near $36.90, CHTR trades near 3.74x earnings and about 3.82x free cash flow per share, but enterprise value is dominated by roughly $94 billion to $96 billion of debt. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The stock is near the 20-day average but below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages. RSI is neutral, while longer-term trend signals remain weak. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are broadband subscriber losses, fixed wireless and fiber competition, video revenue decline, high leverage, interest expense, capital expenditure needs, Cox integration, and multiple compression. | High |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because reported numbers are well sourced. Return confidence is lower because future churn, pricing, capex, rates, and merger execution are less knowable. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | CHTR can work if cash flow stabilizes and debt risk is contained, but the current setup is not high certainty because the market is questioning the durability of the broadband cash-flow engine. | Medium-low |
CHTR AI stock forecast
The CHTR AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $138.02 price reference, TTM EPS near $36.90, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The audited model produced a bearish area near $86.20, a base area near $147.60, and a bullish area near $256.30 before any capital-structure changes from the Cox transaction.
$240 to $265
More likely if broadband customer losses moderate, mobile growth supports bundle economics, network evolution improves product quality, free cash flow remains near or above 2025 levels, Cox integration looks manageable, and investors value CHTR near a mid-single-digit earnings multiple.
$135 to $155
More likely if revenue stays roughly flat, buybacks slow because leverage remains the priority, capital spending follows management guidance, and the market keeps valuing CHTR near a low-single-digit to mid-single-digit earnings multiple.
$80 to $95
More likely if broadband losses accelerate, ARPU stays weak, video decline offsets mobile growth, capex or interest costs rise, Cox integration increases leverage concerns, or investors assign a distressed earnings multiple.
CHTR AI technical analysis
CHTR AI technical analysis is fragile as of the July 8, 2026 cutoff. Barchart showed the stock near the 5-day and 20-day moving averages but below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day averages, while Investing.com reported a neutral 14-day RSI around 47.5 and a daily technical stance closer to sell than buy.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $138.02 | Recent quote reference used for valuation and market-cap verification on July 8, 2026. |
| Immediate support | $125 to $136 | AltIndex cited a support area near $125.54, while Barchart listed the 20-day moving average near $136.25. |
| Deeper support | $80 to $95 | This is not a chart support claim. It is the bearish valuation scenario zone if earnings decline and the multiple compresses. |
| Near resistance | $145 to $153 | Barchart listed the 50-day average near $144.97, and TipRanks references placed 50-day exponential resistance near the low $150s. |
| Major resistance | $185 to $205 | Barchart showed the 100-day average near $185.59 and 200-day average near $204.63, both well above the current price. |
| Moving averages | 5-day $138.54, 20-day $136.25, 50-day $144.97, 100-day $185.59, 200-day $204.63 | The short-term average is near spot price, but the longer trend stack remains bearish. |
| Momentum | 14-day RSI about 47.5 to 47.7 | Investing.com and Barchart both pointed to neutral momentum rather than a deeply oversold or overbought reading. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 4.0 million shares | Barchart moving-average data showed elevated recent average volume, consistent with heavy post-earnings repositioning. |
| Volatility | High event risk around earnings and Cox approvals | Subscriber data, ARPU, capex, leverage, and merger timing can move the stock more than ordinary chart levels. |
| Invalidation | Close below $125 | A decisive break below the cited support area would weaken the rebound setup and shift focus toward balance-sheet risk. |
CHTR AI trading strategy
The CHTR AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It combines broadband operating metrics, leverage discipline, valuation math, and technical invalidation levels.
Watch for CHTR to reclaim and hold the $145 to $153 resistance area while upcoming results show moderating internet customer losses, stable residential ARPU, disciplined capex, and no deterioration in Cox transaction financing.
A failed reclaim below $136 or a close below $125 should reduce setup confidence because the stock would remain trapped below the major moving-average stack.
If CHTR retests $125 to $136 without weaker cash flow guidance, compare the price with TTM EPS, free cash flow per share, debt maturity profile, and management commentary on customer retention.
Do not treat a pullback as benign if broadband losses accelerate, mobile growth requires heavy subsidy, or management guides to higher capital spending or leverage.
Track residential internet customers, mobile line additions, video losses, monthly residential revenue per customer, Adjusted EBITDA, capex, free cash flow, debt, Cox closing conditions, and share repurchase pace.
Position sizing should reflect that CHTR is a leveraged connectivity stock, not a low-risk income substitute.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Charter because home and business connectivity is essential. The company sells broadband access, video, mobile, voice, advertising, and support through a dense cable and fiber-access network under the Spectrum brand.
The moat comes from local network density, large passings, high replacement cost, brand awareness, bundled pricing, and operational scale. The moat is under pressure because fixed wireless, fiber overbuilds, and lower-cost video alternatives give customers more choices.
The thesis fails if broadband becomes a price war, if mobile does not improve retention economics, if the Cox deal adds leverage without enough synergy, or if capital spending stays high while customer relationships decline.
Chris Winfrey is trying to reposition Charter around better service, converged broadband and mobile, network upgrades, rural expansion, and Cox integration. The management test is whether these moves protect cash flow without overloading the balance sheet.
Data demand keeps rising, which supports broadband value, but the industry is no longer a simple cable monopoly story. Fiber, fixed wireless, streaming substitution, and mobile convergence are changing pricing power and customer acquisition costs.
The equity looks cheap on P/E and free cash flow yield, but enterprise value is mostly debt. Margin of safety depends less on the headline multiple and more on stable free cash flow after capex, interest, and merger-related obligations.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHTR quote reference | $138.02 recent price reference on July 8, 2026 | OpenAI finance market data | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $19.12 billion calculated from $138.02 x 138.50 million shares | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis share data | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 138.50 million shares outstanding; 126.63 million Class A shares outstanding at December 31, 2025 in the 10-K | StockAnalysis statistics and Charter 2025 Form 10-K | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $54.774 billion revenue and $4.987 billion net income attributable to Charter shareholders | Charter 2025 Form 10-K and Macrotrends | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and net income | $13.6 billion revenue, $1.163 billion net income attributable to Charter shareholders, and $9.17 diluted EPS | Charter Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $517 million cash and cash equivalents at March 31, 2026; $94.3 billion total principal amount of debt | Charter Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | $5.0 billion FY2025 free cash flow and $1.4 billion Q1 2026 free cash flow | Charter FY2025 and Q1 2026 earnings releases | July 8, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 3.74x TTM P/E, 0.91x book, 3.82x free cash flow per share, and 26.16% free cash flow yield using Pineify financial_rigor.py | Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical trend data | Barchart moving averages: 5-day $138.54, 20-day $136.25, 50-day $144.97, 100-day $185.59, 200-day $204.63; RSI near 47.7 | Barchart CHTR technical analysis | July 8, 2026 |
This CHTR AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell securities, and not a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 8, 2026 and can be wrong if business conditions, financial data, technical trends, interest rates, or market sentiment change.
