Charter Communications, Inc. research snapshot
CHTR AI stock analysis reads Charter Communications as a scaled U.S. broadband, mobile, and video operator under the Spectrum brand that is now trading near a 12-year low. The stock screens very cheap on earnings and free cash flow, but the market is discounting a fourth consecutive quarterly revenue decline, steeper-than-expected broadband customer losses, heavy debt near $94 billion of principal, and integration risk from the pending Cox transaction. The CHTR AI stock forecast is scenario-based rather than a precise prediction. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, the analysis separates the low headline multiple from the large enterprise value and the durability question around broadband cash flow.
Current price
$144.98
Market cap
$19.54 billion verified market cap
AI score
48 / 100
Rating
Deep value with high leverage and subscriber risk
Trend status
Short-term rebound above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, still below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages after a 12-year low
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Charter earns revenue by selling residential and commercial internet, mobile, video, voice, advertising, and related connectivity services under the Spectrum brand. | High |
| Moat | Local network scale, dense passings, high replacement cost, Spectrum brand reach, and bundled broadband and mobile offers support the moat, but fiber and fixed wireless competition has narrowed it. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Chris Winfrey is focused on network evolution, rural expansion, mobile convergence, the Cox transaction, and debt management, but the operating trends are still negative. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue fell 1.7% to $13.526 billion and adjusted EBITDA fell 3.2% excluding transition expenses. H1 2026 free cash flow was $2.341 billion versus $2.610 billion a year earlier. | High |
| Valuation | At $144.98 and TTM EPS near $38.43, CHTR trades near 3.77x earnings and about 4.48x free cash flow per share, but enterprise value is about $115.74 billion and dominated by roughly $94 billion of debt principal. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The stock rebounded above the 5-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages but remains well below the 100-day and 200-day averages after touching a 12-year low following the Q2 report. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are broadband subscriber losses, fiber and fixed wireless competition, video decline, high leverage, interest expense, capex needs, Cox integration, refinancing risk, and a low Altman Z-Score of 0.67. | High |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because reported numbers are well sourced. Return confidence is lower because future churn, pricing, capex, rates, and merger execution are less knowable. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | CHTR can work if cash flow stabilizes and debt risk is contained, but the current setup is not high certainty because the market is questioning the durability of the broadband cash-flow engine. | Low |
CHTR AI stock forecast
The CHTR AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $144.98 price reference and TTM EPS near $38.43. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $75, a base area near $163, and a bullish area near $290 before any capital-structure changes from the Cox transaction.
$260 to $300
More likely if broadband customer losses moderate, mobile growth improves bundle economics, network evolution lifts product quality, free cash flow stabilizes near current levels, Cox integration looks manageable, and investors value CHTR at a higher earnings multiple.
$145 to $175
More likely if revenue stays roughly flat, buybacks continue but leverage remains the priority, capital spending follows the roughly $11.4 billion 2026 guidance, and the market keeps valuing CHTR near a low-single-digit earnings multiple.
$65 to $90
More likely if broadband losses accelerate, ARPU stays weak, video decline offsets mobile growth, capex or interest costs rise, debt refinancing becomes harder, Cox integration adds leverage, or investors assign a distressed earnings multiple.
CHTR AI technical analysis
CHTR AI technical analysis is mixed as of the August 2, 2026 cutoff. Barchart showed the stock above the 5-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages but below the 100-day and 200-day averages, with a 14-day RSI near 59.55 and a low ADX near 14.7 suggesting the rebound is not yet a confirmed trend.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $144.98 | Close on July 31, 2026 used for valuation and market-cap verification, after the stock hit a 12-year low following the July 24 Q2 report. |
| Immediate support | $133 to $137 | Barchart listed the 20-day moving average near $133.35 and StockAnalysis listed the 50-day moving average near $136.25. |
| Deeper support | $111 to $125 | The 52-week low is $111.55. A break below the $125 area would open the way to the yearly low. |
| Near resistance | $167 to $177 | Barchart listed the 100-day moving average near $167.70, a heavy overhead zone above the current price. |
| Major resistance | $192 to $196 | Barchart and StockAnalysis both placed the 200-day moving average near $192.31, well above the current price. |
| Moving averages | 5-day $140.75, 20-day $133.35, 50-day $136.25, 100-day $167.70, 200-day $192.31 | The short-term average stack turned up, but the longer trend stack remains firmly bearish. |
| Momentum | 14-day RSI near 59.55, 14-day ADX near 14.7 | Barchart reported neutral-to-positive momentum with a low ADX, meaning the rebound lacks a confirmed directional trend. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 3.09 million shares | Barchart moving-average data showed elevated recent volume consistent with heavy post-earnings repositioning. |
| Volatility | High, near 48% annualized on a 14-day basis | Barchart reported high historical volatility around earnings, the Cox transaction, and possible strategic headlines. |
| Invalidation | Close below $133 | A decisive break below the 20-day moving average would weaken the rebound setup and shift focus back to the $125 and $111 support levels. |
CHTR AI trading strategy
The CHTR AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It combines broadband operating metrics, leverage discipline, valuation math, and technical invalidation levels.
Watch for CHTR to hold above the $133 to $137 moving-average support and to reclaim the $167 to $177 resistance area while upcoming results show moderating internet customer losses, stable residential ARPU, disciplined capex, and no deterioration in Cox transaction financing.
A failed reclaim below $133 or a close below $125 should reduce setup confidence because the stock would remain trapped below the major moving-average stack.
If CHTR retests $111 to $133 without weaker cash flow guidance, compare the price with TTM EPS, free cash flow per share, debt maturity profile, and management commentary on customer retention.
Do not treat a pullback as benign if broadband losses accelerate, mobile growth requires heavy subsidy, capex rises, or management guides to higher leverage or refinancing stress.
Track residential internet customers, mobile line additions, video losses, monthly residential revenue per customer, Adjusted EBITDA, capex, free cash flow, debt, Cox closing conditions, debt exchange activity, and share repurchase pace.
Position sizing should reflect that CHTR is a highly leveraged connectivity stock with an Altman Z-Score of 0.67, not a low-risk income substitute.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Charter because home and business connectivity is essential. The company sells broadband access, mobile, video, voice, advertising, and support through a dense cable and fiber-access network under the Spectrum brand, serving about 31.5 million customer relationships.
The moat comes from local network density, large passings, high replacement cost, brand awareness, bundled pricing, and operational scale. The moat is under pressure because fixed wireless, fiber overbuilds, and lower-cost video alternatives give customers more choices.
The thesis fails if broadband becomes a price war, if mobile does not improve retention economics, if the Cox deal adds leverage without enough synergy, or if capital spending stays high while customer relationships decline and debt markets tighten.
Chris Winfrey is trying to reposition Charter around network evolution, converged broadband and mobile, rural expansion, and Cox integration while buying back stock and debt. The management test is whether these moves protect cash flow without overloading the balance sheet.
Data demand keeps rising, which supports broadband value, but the industry is no longer a simple cable monopoly story. Fiber, fixed wireless, streaming substitution, mobile convergence, and possible consolidation with players such as Comcast are changing pricing power and customer acquisition costs.
The equity looks cheap on P/E and free cash flow yield, but enterprise value is mostly debt. Margin of safety depends less on the headline multiple and more on stable free cash flow after capex, interest, and merger-related obligations.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHTR quote reference | $144.98 close on July 31, 2026, up 2.10% on the day | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote via CBOE | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $19.54 billion calculated from $144.98 x 134.79 million shares | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis share data | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 134.79 million shares outstanding, down 11.01% year over year; current share class 119.28 million | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue and net income | $13.526 billion revenue, down 1.7%; net income attributable to Charter shareholders of $1.292 billion; diluted GAAP EPS of $10.66 | Charter Q2 2026 results release | July 24, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow | Adjusted EBITDA of $5.449 billion, down 4.3% and down 3.2% excluding transition expenses; free cash flow of $969 million, down $77 million | Charter Q2 2026 results release | July 24, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 operating metrics | Internet customers down 172,000 to 29.4 million; mobile lines up 406,000 to 12.5 million; video customers down 21,000 to 12.5 million | Charter Q2 2026 results release | July 24, 2026 |
| H1 2026 financial results | H1 2026 revenue of $27.123 billion, down 1.4%; diluted EPS of $19.81; adjusted EBITDA of $11.086 billion, down 3.2%; free cash flow of $2.341 billion | Charter Q2 2026 results release | July 24, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $509 million cash and cash equivalents at June 30, 2026; about $93.8 billion total principal amount of debt; credit facilities provide roughly $3.7 billion additional liquidity | Charter Q2 2026 results release | July 24, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $54.774 billion revenue, down 0.56%; net income attributable to Charter shareholders of $4.987 billion | Charter 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis.com cross-check | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM financials | TTM revenue of $54.40 billion, TTM net income of $4.92 billion, TTM free cash flow of $4.36 billion per StockAnalysis | StockAnalysis statistics and cash-flow data | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 3.77x TTM P/E, 3.40x forward P/E, 1.02x book, 4.48x free cash flow per share, and 22.30% free cash flow yield using Pineify financial_rigor.py | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Enterprise valuation | Enterprise value of $115.74 billion; EV/EBITDA of 5.40x, EV/FCF of 26.56x, Debt/EBITDA of 4.51x, and interest coverage of 2.50x | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold rating with an average 12-month price target of $184.41 across 21 analysts; low $101, median $150, high $380 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 29, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 5 Strong Buy, 0 Buy, 11 Hold, 2 Sell, 3 Strong Sell out of 21 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 29, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target changes | J.P. Morgan $200 to $150, Citi $190 to $180, UBS $235 to $140, Deutsche Bank $215 to $150, Bank of America reiterates $160 | StockAnalysis.com forecast latest forecasts | July 29, 2026 |
| Short interest | 20.27 million shares short, 15.03% of shares outstanding, 5.35 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical trend data | Barchart moving averages: 5-day $140.75, 20-day $133.35, 50-day $136.25, 100-day $167.70, 200-day $192.31; 14-day RSI near 59.55 | Barchart CHTR technical analysis | July 31, 2026 |
This CHTR AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell securities, and not a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong if business conditions, financial data, technical trends, interest rates, or market sentiment change.
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