CF Industries Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
CF AI stock analysis currently reads CF Industries Holdings, Inc. as a cost-advantaged North American nitrogen producer with strong cash generation, disciplined buybacks, and exposure to tight global fertilizer supply. The July 8, 2026 data cutoff uses a $114.94 share price, about $17.66 billion verified market cap, TTM EPS near $11.08, and TTM free cash flow near $1.62 billion. The main caution is that CF is not a steady software-style compounder. Nitrogen prices, natural gas spreads, farmer demand, geopolitical disruptions, and the Blue Point low-carbon ammonia investment can change the CF AI stock forecast quickly. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$114.94
Market cap
$17.66 billion verified market cap
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
High-quality nitrogen franchise with commodity-cycle risk
Trend status
Constructive medium-term trend, trading near the 50-day average and above the 200-day average
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | CF produces ammonia, urea, UAN, ammonium nitrate, DEF, and related nitrogen products used in agriculture, emissions control, and industrial markets. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from low-cost North American gas access, large integrated plants, logistics, safety execution, customer relationships, and hard-to-replicate ammonia capacity. | Medium-high |
| Management | Chris Bohn became CEO in January 2026 after leading operations, while the company continues buybacks, dividends, and low-carbon ammonia investment. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 net sales rose 19% to $7.08 billion, net earnings to common rose to $1.46 billion, and Q1 2026 net sales rose to $1.99 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $114.94, CF screens near 10.37x TTM EPS, 10.89x free cash flow per share, 3.30x book value, and 2.38x sales. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock is near its 50-day average around $115.60 and above the 200-day average around $100.15, with RSI near 59. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are nitrogen price reversal, natural gas cost pressure, farmer demand, geopolitical normalization, Blue Point execution, outages, and buyback timing. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because filings, company releases, and third-party datasets agree. Forecast confidence is lower because commodity prices change quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | CF is a strong cyclical franchise, but the current setup depends on continued tight nitrogen markets and disciplined capital allocation. | Medium |
CF AI stock forecast
The CF AI stock forecast uses the $114.94 cutoff price, TTM EPS near $11.08, and a three-year scenario model. The audited model produced a bearish area near $42.80, a base area near $104.30, and a bullish area near $181.40 before dividends. That wide range is appropriate because CF earnings can change fast when nitrogen prices, natural gas costs, and global supply conditions move.
$170 to $190
More likely if global nitrogen supply stays tight, North American gas spreads remain favorable, Q1 2026 pricing strength carries into the next crop cycles, Blue Point spending stays controlled, and investors value CF near a low-teens earnings multiple.
$95 to $115
More likely if EPS drifts lower from the strong 2026 run-rate but CF keeps high utilization, solid free cash flow, buybacks, and a roughly 10x earnings multiple.
$40 to $55
More likely if fertilizer prices normalize, Chinese or Middle Eastern supply returns, farmer demand weakens, gas costs rise, outages persist, and the market values CF at a trough-cycle multiple.
CF AI technical analysis
CF AI technical analysis is constructive but not risk-free as of the July 8, 2026 cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a July 7 close of $114.94, a 50-day moving average near $115.60, a 200-day moving average near $100.15, RSI near 59.16, and 20-day average volume near 2.90 million shares. The useful read is whether CF can hold the $110 to $116 area while fertilizer pricing news remains supportive.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $114.94 | Latest verified market quote used for valuation and market-cap checks at the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Immediate support | $110 to $116 | This band brackets the current price and the 50-day moving-average reference near $115.60. |
| Deeper support | $98 to $102 | This area brackets the 200-day moving-average reference near $100.15 and would test the larger trend. |
| Near resistance | $125 to $130 | This band overlaps recent analyst target clustering and the upper range bulls need to clear for renewed momentum. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $115.60, 200-day near $100.15 | Price is close to the 50-day average and still above the 200-day average, which keeps the medium-term setup positive. |
| Momentum | RSI near 59.16 | Momentum is positive but not extreme, so news about nitrogen prices can still drive the next move. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 2.90 million shares | Breakouts above resistance or breaks below support should be judged against this liquidity baseline. |
| Volatility | Watch Q2 earnings, fertilizer prices, gas costs, and geopolitics | CF can move sharply when nitrogen supply-demand expectations change. |
| Invalidation | Close below $110, then below $100 | A break below $110 weakens the short-term setup. A break below the 200-day area would challenge the medium-term trend framework. |
CF AI trading strategy
The CF AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price action with nitrogen price spreads, North American gas costs, ammonia utilization, Blue Point capital spending, buybacks, and Q2 2026 earnings.
Watch for CF to hold the $110 to $116 support band and push through $125 to $130 while Q2 results confirm tight nitrogen markets, strong utilization, and disciplined capital spending.
A close below $110 should reduce trend confidence, especially if fertilizer prices soften or management signals weaker volumes, higher gas costs, or extended outage costs.
If CF pulls back toward the $98 to $102 200-day area without a collapse in nitrogen pricing or free cash flow, compare the lower price with normalized earnings power and shareholder returns.
Do not treat every pullback as value. Recheck urea, ammonia, UAN, gas spreads, Chinese export risk, and Blue Point cash needs before adding exposure.
Track net sales, adjusted EBITDA, operating cash flow, free cash flow, gross ammonia utilization, realized natural gas costs, buybacks, dividends, Blue Point capex, and fertilizer export policy.
Position sizing should reflect that CF is a commodity-linked industrial with strong assets, not a predictable recurring-revenue compounder.
Investment research summary
Customers pay CF because crops and industrial users need reliable nitrogen supply, and CF converts advantaged gas access, large ammonia assets, logistics, and safety execution into fertilizer and industrial nitrogen products.
The moat is strongest in scale, low-cost North American feedstock, large integrated production complexes, logistics, customer reliability, and the difficulty of building new ammonia capacity. It narrows when global supply is abundant or gas spreads compress.
The thesis fails if nitrogen prices fall faster than costs, geopolitical supply shocks fade, farmer demand weakens, China exports more fertilizer, Blue Point consumes more capital than expected, or buybacks occur near cycle peaks.
Chris Bohn brings deep operating experience after serving as COO. The management test is whether CF keeps high asset utilization, allocates capital well between buybacks and Blue Point, and preserves returns through the cycle.
CF benefits from global food demand, tight nitrogen supply, North American gas advantages, emissions control demand, and low-carbon ammonia optionality. The offset is that fertilizer remains tied to crop economics, energy spreads, weather, and policy.
At $114.94, CF is not expensive on TTM earnings or free cash flow, but those numbers are cycle-sensitive. Margin of safety depends on normalized earnings, not just peak or shock-aided profitability.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CF quote reference | $114.94 close on July 7, 2026 | StockAnalysis market quote | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $17.66 billion, verified by financial_rigor.py using $114.94 x 153.63 million shares | StockAnalysis share count and financial_rigor.py | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net sales | $7.084 billion, cross-validated from CF release, SEC 10-K, and StockAnalysis | CF Industries FY2025 release | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net earnings to common | $1.455 billion, or $8.97 diluted EPS, cross-validated from CF release, SEC 10-K, and StockAnalysis | CF Industries 2025 Form 10-K | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | $1.99 billion net sales, $615 million net earnings to common, $983 million adjusted EBITDA | CF Industries Q1 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | $2.04 billion as of March 31, 2026, cross-validated from CF Q1 release and StockAnalysis | CF Industries Q1 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and earnings | $7.41 billion revenue and $1.76 billion net income | StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 10.37x PE, 2.38x sales, 3.31x book value, 10.89x price to free cash flow | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical references | 50-day moving average $115.60, 200-day moving average $100.15, RSI 59.16, 20-day average volume 2.90 million shares | StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Management transition | Chris Bohn assumed the president and CEO role on January 5, 2026 after serving as chief operating officer | CF Industries governance profile | July 8, 2026 |
This CF AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of July 8, 2026 and may be wrong if market prices, earnings, fertilizer supply, gas costs, or company fundamentals change.
