CF Industries Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
CF AI stock analysis reads CF Industries Holdings, Inc. as a low-cost North American nitrogen producer riding a supply-driven price spike while returning heavy cash through buybacks and a raised dividend. The August 2, 2026 data cutoff uses a $125.19 share price on the July 31, 2026 close, about $19.23 billion verified market cap, TTM EPS near $11.08, and TTM free cash flow near $1.62 billion. Q1 2026 delivered $1.99 billion in net sales, $615 million in net earnings to common, and $983 million in adjusted EBITDA, with Q2 results scheduled for August 5, 2026. The main caution is that the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz supply disruption lifted nitrogen prices, so the CF AI stock forecast depends on how long that disruption lasts, whether China restarts fertilizer exports, and where natural gas costs settle. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$125.19
Market cap
$19.23 billion verified market cap
AI score
71 / 100
Rating
Cost-advantaged nitrogen franchise at the high point of a supply-driven cycle
Trend status
Uptrend above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, near the top of the 52-week range
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | CF produces ammonia, granular urea, UAN, ammonium nitrate, DEF, and related nitrogen products for agriculture, emissions control, and industrial markets. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from low-cost North American gas access, large integrated plants, logistics, customer relationships, and ammonia capacity that is difficult to replicate. | Medium-high |
| Management | Christopher Bohn, CEO since January 2026, runs the business with a new CFO, continued buybacks, a 20% dividend increase, and disciplined low-carbon ammonia investment. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 net sales rose 19% to $7.08 billion, and Q1 2026 net sales rose to $1.99 billion with adjusted EBITDA of $983 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $125.19, CF trades near 11.30x TTM EPS, 7.39x forward EPS, 11.86x free cash flow per share, 3.60x book value, and 2.60x sales. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock closed above the 50-day average near $114.86 and the 200-day average near $103.11, with RSI near 59 and the price near the upper end of its 52-week range. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are nitrogen price reversal as the Hormuz disruption fades, Chinese export recovery, gas cost pressure, farmer demand, Q2 results, Blue Point execution, and buyback timing. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because filings, company releases, and third-party datasets agree. Forecast confidence is lower because commodity prices and geopolitics move quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | CF is a strong cyclical franchise, but the current setup depends on how long tight global nitrogen supply lasts and on disciplined capital allocation through the cycle. | Medium |
CF AI stock forecast
The CF AI stock forecast uses the $125.19 cutoff price, TTM EPS near $11.08, and an audited three-year scenario model. The model produced a bearish area near $48, a base area near $111, and a bullish area near $209 before dividends, using EPS growth of -15%, 0%, and 8% and exit multiples of 7x, 10x, and 15x. That wide range is appropriate because CF earnings can change fast when nitrogen prices, gas costs, and global supply conditions move.
$175 to $215
More likely if the Hormuz disruption keeps global nitrogen supply tight, North American gas spreads stay favorable, Q2 2026 confirms strong pricing, China keeps exports constrained, and investors value CF near a 15x earnings multiple.
$100 to $125
More likely if EPS drifts toward a normalized level after the supply-driven spike, CF keeps high utilization, solid free cash flow, buybacks, a growing dividend, and a multiple near 10x TTM earnings.
$40 to $60
More likely if fertilizer prices normalize fast, China or Middle Eastern supply returns, farmer demand weakens, gas costs rise, or the market assigns a trough-cycle multiple near 7x to lower EPS.
CF AI technical analysis
CF AI technical analysis is constructive as of the August 2, 2026 cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a July 31 close of $125.19, a 50-day moving average near $114.86, a 200-day moving average near $103.11, RSI near 59.44, and 20-day average volume near 2.28 million shares. Barchart confirmed the 50-day and 200-day levels and added a 14-day ADX near 23.89. The useful read is whether CF can hold above the $115 to $121 area and test the upper part of the $130 to $142 resistance zone while nitrogen pricing news stays supportive.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $125.19 | Verified market quote for valuation and market-cap checks at the July 31, 2026 close and the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $115 to $121 | This band brackets the 20-day moving average near $121.04 and the 50-day moving average near $114.86. |
| Deeper support | $103 to $110 | The 200-day moving average near $103.11 marks the major trend reference, with the $100 to $110 zone as the deeper floor. |
| Near resistance | $130 to $142 | Analyst targets cluster around $129 to $135, and the 52-week high of $141.96 caps the upper part of this zone. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $114.86, 200-day near $103.11 | Price is above both averages, which keeps the medium-term setup positive while the stock trades near the high end of its range. |
| Momentum | RSI near 59.44, ADX near 23.89 | Momentum is positive but not extreme, so news about nitrogen prices, Q2 earnings, or geopolitics can still drive the next move. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 2.28 to 2.34 million shares | Breakouts above resistance or breaks below support should be judged against this liquidity baseline. |
| Volatility | Watch Q2 earnings on August 5, 2026, nitrogen prices, gas costs, and Hormuz news | 14-day historical volatility was near 34%, so CF can move sharply when supply-demand expectations change. |
| Invalidation | Close below $114.86, then below $103 | A break below the 50-day average weakens the short-term setup. A break below the 200-day area would challenge the medium-term trend framework. |
CF AI trading strategy
The CF AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price action with nitrogen price spreads, North American gas costs, ammonia utilization, Blue Point capital spending, buybacks, and Q2 2026 earnings on August 5, 2026.
Watch for CF to hold above the $115 to $121 support band and push through $130 toward $142 while Q2 results confirm tight nitrogen markets, strong utilization, and disciplined capital spending.
A close below $114.86 should reduce trend confidence, especially if fertilizer prices soften or management signals weaker volumes, higher gas costs, or a faster normalization of supply.
If CF pulls back toward the $103 to $110 200-day area without a collapse in nitrogen pricing or free cash flow, compare the lower price with normalized earnings power and shareholder returns.
Do not treat every pullback as value. Recheck urea, ammonia, UAN, gas spreads, Chinese export risk, Hormuz news, and Blue Point cash needs before adding exposure.
Track net sales, adjusted EBITDA, operating cash flow, free cash flow, gross ammonia utilization, realized natural gas costs, buybacks, dividends, Blue Point capex, and fertilizer export policy.
Position sizing should reflect that CF is a commodity-linked industrial with strong assets, not a predictable recurring-revenue compounder.
Investment research summary
Customers pay CF because crops and industrial users need reliable nitrogen supply, and CF converts advantaged gas access, large ammonia assets, logistics, and safety execution into fertilizer and industrial nitrogen products.
The moat is strongest in scale, low-cost North American feedstock, large integrated production complexes, logistics, customer reliability, and the difficulty of building new ammonia capacity. It narrows when global supply is abundant or gas spreads compress.
The thesis fails if nitrogen prices fall faster than costs, the Hormuz disruption fades, China exports more fertilizer, farmer demand weakens, Blue Point consumes more capital than expected, or buybacks occur near cycle peaks.
Christopher Bohn brings deep operating experience after serving as COO, and Andrew Scribner became CFO in May 2026. The management test is whether CF keeps high asset utilization, allocates capital well between buybacks and Blue Point, and preserves returns through the cycle.
CF benefits from global food demand, tight nitrogen supply, North American gas advantages, emissions control demand, and low-carbon ammonia optionality. The offset is that fertilizer remains tied to crop economics, energy spreads, weather, geopolitics, and policy.
At $125.19, CF is not expensive on TTM earnings or free cash flow, but those numbers are amplified by a supply shock. Margin of safety depends on normalized earnings, not just disruption-aided profitability.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CF quote reference | $125.19 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis market quote | August 1, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $19.23 billion, verified by financial_rigor.py using $125.19 x 153.63 million shares | StockAnalysis share count and financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| 52-week range and price change | $75.42 to $141.96 range, +35.14% over 52 weeks, +61.87% year to date | StockAnalysis overview and Barchart technical tables | August 1, 2026 |
| FY2025 net sales | $7.084 billion, cross-validated from StockAnalysis and the CF 10-K reference | CF Industries FY2025 results and StockAnalysis | August 1, 2026 |
| FY2025 net earnings to common | $1.455 billion, or $8.97 diluted EPS, cross-validated from StockAnalysis and SEC filings | CF Industries 2025 Form 10-K | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | $1.99 billion net sales, $615 million net earnings to common, $983 million adjusted EBITDA; EPS $3.98 versus about $2.23 consensus | CF Industries Q1 2026 earnings release and TheFly consensus | August 1, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | $2.04 billion as of March 31, 2026, with total debt of $3.62 billion | StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 1, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and earnings | $7.41 billion revenue and $1.76 billion net income to common, with TTM EPS of $11.08 | StockAnalysis statistics and income statement | August 1, 2026 |
| TTM cash flow | Operating cash flow of $2.66 billion, capex of $1.04 billion, free cash flow of $1.62 billion | StockAnalysis cash flow statement | August 1, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 11.30x PE, 7.39x forward PE, 2.60x sales, 3.60x book value, 11.86x price to free cash flow | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Dividend | $0.60 per quarter after a 20% increase announced July 8, 2026, with an ex-dividend date of August 14, 2026 | CF Industries dividend announcement and StockAnalysis dividend history | August 1, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold with an average price target of $125.25 across 21 analysts, low $100, median $121, high $195.72 | StockAnalysis forecast, S&P Global Market Intelligence | July 27, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 3 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, 13 Hold, 1 Sell, 2 Strong Sell out of 21 analysts | StockAnalysis forecast recommendation trends | July 27, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Barclays Buy $145 to $135, CIBC Hold $128 to $129, BofA Sell $106, RBC Hold $125 to $115, Morgan Stanley Hold $135 to $115, Scotiabank Outperform $125 | StockAnalysis forecast latest forecasts and TheFly | July 27, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate $8.63 billion with adjusted EPS $17.06, FY2027 revenue $7.33 billion with adjusted EPS $11.27 | StockAnalysis forecast financial forecast | July 27, 2026 |
| Short interest | 9.26 million shares short, 6.03% of shares outstanding, 3.3 days to cover | StockAnalysis statistics short selling | August 1, 2026 |
| Technical references | 50-day moving average $114.86, 200-day moving average $103.11, RSI 59.44, ADX 23.89, 20-day average volume near 2.3 million shares | StockAnalysis statistics and Barchart technical analysis | August 1, 2026 |
| Management transition | Christopher Bohn is president and CEO after assuming the role in January 2026, and Andrew Scribner was elected EVP and CFO in May 2026 | StockAnalysis company profile and CF news release | August 1, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 earnings date | Scheduled for Wednesday, August 5, 2026 after market close | StockAnalysis important dates | August 1, 2026 |
This CF AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and may be wrong if market prices, earnings, fertilizer supply, gas costs, geopolitics, or company fundamentals change.
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