C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. research snapshot
CHRW AI stock analysis reads C.H. Robinson as a logistics operator whose operating execution has genuinely improved, but the stock market is now questioning the price it pays for that improvement. Q2 2026 revenue rose 19.3% to $4.93 billion and adjusted operating income rose 20%, with both segments hitting their mid-cycle margin targets. Yet the shares fell about 15% on July 30, 2026 and ended the month near $147.73, roughly 30% below the late-July high of about $210, as investors weighed a freight market still in its demand trough, a spike in truckload spot rates that inflates revenue but pressures working capital, weaker operating cash flow, and a $604 million advisory jury verdict the company plans to appeal. The CHRW AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise prediction, and the stock now trades below all of its major moving averages with an oversold RSI reading.
Current price
$147.73
Market cap
$17.26 billion verified market cap
AI score
60 / 100
Rating
Strong execution, but freight-cycle, cash-flow, and legal verdict overhang
Trend status
Sharp downtrend below all major moving averages after a 30% July selloff, with deeply oversold RSI
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | C.H. Robinson arranges freight, logistics, sourcing, and supply-chain services through an asset-light network. Q2 2026 revenue rose 19.3% to $4.93 billion, but the growth was price-driven while NAST volume grew only 1.5%. | High |
| Moat | Scale, carrier relationships, shipment data, route expertise, and Lean AI productivity remain advantages, but freight brokerage stays competitive and cyclical, and the sharp selloff shows the market sees less near-term pricing power. | Medium-high |
| Management | Dave Bozeman and the team delivered a 20% rise in adjusted operating income, hit mid-cycle margin targets in both segments, and returned $301 million to shareholders, while actively disputing a $604 million jury verdict. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue is $17.00 billion and TTM net income is $633 million, but Q2 2026 operating cash flow was only $35.9 million because higher freight rates inflated receivables and working capital. | High |
| Valuation | At $147.73, CHRW trades near 28.2x TTM earnings and about 25.8x free cash flow, which is cheaper than before the crash but still not cheap for a cyclical brokerage. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The stock is below its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages after a sharp breakdown, with 14-day RSI near 26 and a strong negative directional trend. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Key risks are continued freight demand weakness, spot-rate-driven working capital swings, contractual margin pressure, the $604 million verdict and its appeals, and valuation multiple compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High confidence for reported financials, market data, technical levels, analyst targets, and valuation math. Lower confidence for the future path of freight demand, cash flow, and legal outcomes. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The business is executing better, but a 30% crash in a week, weak cash flow, and a legal overhang mean this is not a high-certainty buy at any price right now. | Medium |
CHRW AI stock forecast
The CHRW AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $147.73 July 31, 2026 close. It does not claim that AI can predict a specific future price. The three-scenario model starts from consensus 2026 earnings near $6.22 per share. The bullish case requires freight demand to recover, NAST to keep gaining share, margins to hold, and the legal outcome to be contained. The base case assumes earnings grow but freight stays weak and the stock holds a modest multiple. The bearish case assumes demand stays in a trough, contractual margins compress, cash flow stays weak, or the verdict creates a lasting overhang.
$195 to $235
More likely if truckload spot-rate inflation fades, volumes outgrow the market index more broadly, NAST and Global Forwarding hold their mid-cycle margins, the $604 million verdict is overturned or contained on appeal, and analysts with targets of $220 to $237 are proven right.
$140 to $175
More likely if earnings grow at a double-digit pace as management guides, freight demand stays weak but stable, cash flow recovers from the working-capital drag, and the market keeps CHRW near a high-teens to low-20s earnings multiple.
$90 to $120
More likely if the freight demand trough extends, contractual margin compression accelerates, the working-capital drag persists, the $604 million verdict survives appeals, or the market resets CHRW toward a mid-teens earnings multiple. The low analyst target is $91.
CHRW AI technical analysis
CHRW AI technical analysis starts from the $147.73 July 31 close used for this August 2 static page. The stock broke down below every major moving average in the last week of July, with 14-day RSI near 26, deeply oversold stochastic readings, and a directional index showing strong negative pressure. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $147.73 | Latest verified close as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, down about 15% on July 30 and roughly 30% below the July 22 peak near $210.33. |
| Immediate support | $143 to $146 | The July 30-31 lows near $143.16 to $143.46. A close below this area would open the next leg down with little recent trading history beneath it. |
| Secondary support | $135 to $140 | Round-number area below the recent lows. There is limited trading data between here and the 52-week low, so this level carries less confirmation. |
| Distant support | $104.95 | The 52-week low. A move back to this area would require a much larger repricing of the freight cycle and the legal outlook. |
| Near resistance | $164 to $174 | The breakdown zone formed by the July 27-30 trading range and the 200-day moving average near $171.83. Reclaiming it would start to repair the trend. |
| Major resistance | $186 to $190 | The July 24 close near $186.51 and the 20-day and 50-day moving averages near $185.93 to $189.52. |
| Moving averages | 5-day $162.44, 20-day $189.52, 50-day $185.93, 100-day $178.97, 200-day $171.83 | Barchart and StockAnalysis both show the price below every major moving average as of the July 31 close. |
| Momentum | RSI near 26, ADX near 36, -DI near 45 | 14-day RSI is deeply oversold and the directional index shows strong negative pressure, so an oversold bounce is possible but the primary trend is down. |
| Volume | About 7.4 million shares on July 30 | Selling volume on the earnings reaction was more than triple the 20-day average of about 2.37 million shares. |
| Volatility | 14-day ATR near $8.59 | Historic volatility is very high near 85%, so position sizing should allow for large daily swings. |
| Invalidation | Close above $172, then $186 | A close back above the 200-day area near $172 would be the first repair signal. A break below $143 would confirm the downtrend extends. |
CHRW AI trading strategy
The CHRW AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It combines freight-cycle and cash-flow evidence with technical confirmation after a sharp post-earnings breakdown.
Wait for CHRW to reclaim the $164 to $174 zone on rising volume while Q3 commentary confirms stable volumes, recovering cash flow, and no new negative legal headlines before treating the downtrend as repaired.
A close below $143 or a failed reclaim of the 200-day area near $172 should keep the setup on the defensive.
The deeply oversold RSI near 26 and the July 30-31 low near $143 to $146 could attract a tactical bounce, but treat it as a high-risk trade unless freight and cash-flow data confirm a turning point.
Do not average down into a downtrend solely because the stock is cheaper. Define a hard stop below $143 and review the legal docket and cash conversion first.
Track NAST truckload and LTL volumes, contractual repricing, truckload spot rates, AGP per shipment, operating cash flow and working capital, Q3 2026 guidance, buybacks and dividends, and any post-trial motions or appeals in the Texas verdict case.
Lower the rating if cash flow stays weak, contractual margins compress, or legal costs and verdict exposure grow while the stock holds an elevated multiple.
Investment research summary
Customers pay C.H. Robinson to arrange capacity, routing, pricing, visibility, and execution across fragmented freight markets. The company converts network density, data, and logistics expertise into lower friction, and Q2 showed pricing power, but the growth is price-driven while freight demand is still falling.
The moat is strongest in scale, carrier access, shipment data, customer workflows, brand trust, and Lean AI productivity. It is weaker than a regulated monopoly because price-sensitive shippers and carriers can shift volume, and the July selloff shows the market doubts near-term pricing power.
The thesis fails if the freight demand trough extends, if spot-rate inflation inflates revenue without durable profit, if contractual margins compress, if cash flow stays weak, or if the $604 million verdict survives appeals and creates a broader legal liability overhang.
Dave Bozeman and his team hit mid-cycle margin targets in both segments, grew adjusted operating income 20%, and returned $301 million to shareholders. The tests are whether cash conversion improves, whether pricing discipline holds into Q3, and how the company manages the Texas verdict appeal.
Logistics demand benefits from complex supply chains, outsourcing, and e-commerce fulfillment, but freight brokerage remains exposed to truckload cycles, ocean capacity, fuel, tariffs, and now a legal environment where nuclear verdicts in trucking accidents are a broader industry concern.
At about 28.2x TTM earnings and 25.8x free cash flow, the stock is cheaper than before the crash but still not a margin-of-safety bargain for a cyclical brokerage. A better setup needs either faster volume-driven earnings growth or an even lower entry price.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHRW quote reference | $147.73 close on July 31, 2026, after-hours $148.25 | StockAnalysis CHRW overview | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $17.26 billion calculated as $147.73 x 116.85 million shares | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis share data | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 116.85 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis CHRW statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue | $4.934 billion, up 19.3% year over year, with AGP up 6.5% | C.H. Robinson Q2 2026 earnings summary and StockAnalysis quarterly financials | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net income and EPS | $186.79 million net income and $1.56 diluted EPS, up 23.8% year over year | StockAnalysis quarterly financials and WSJ earnings coverage | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted operating income | Adjusted operating income up 20% year over year, with mid-cycle margin targets hit in both segments | C.H. Robinson Q2 2026 earnings summary | August 2, 2026 |
| Segment operating margins | NAST operating margin ex-restructuring up 280 bps to 40.9%; Global Forwarding up 470 bps to 33.4% | C.H. Robinson Q2 2026 earnings summary | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $16.233 billion revenue and $587.08 million net income | StockAnalysis financials | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | $17.00 billion revenue and $633.33 million net income, with TTM EPS of $5.24 | StockAnalysis CHRW statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $154.59 million cash and investments and $1.973 billion total debt at June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis balance sheet data | August 2, 2026 |
| Operating cash flow | Q2 2026 operating cash flow of $35.9 million, pressured by working capital from higher freight rates | C.H. Robinson Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 28.20x PE, 21.26x forward PE, 25.81x P/FCF, 1.02x sales, 10.63x book | StockAnalysis CHRW statistics and financial_rigor.py valuation check | August 2, 2026 |
| Dividend | $2.52 annual dividend, 1.71% yield, 28 years of dividend growth | StockAnalysis CHRW statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating with an average 12-month price target near $199.92, range $91 to $237 | StockAnalysis CHRW forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Legal verdict | Advisory jury verdict of about $604 million in a Dallas County, Texas trucking accident case; company says it will appeal if entered as final | C.H. Robinson Q2 2026 earnings call transcript and TheFly coverage | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical trend data | Price below 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages; RSI near 26; ADX near 36 | Barchart CHRW technical analysis and StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
This CHRW AI stock analysis is for informational and educational use only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenario estimates based on available public data as of August 2, 2026, and they can be wrong if fundamentals, market prices, freight conditions, cash flow, legal outcomes, or investor sentiment change.
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