C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. research snapshot
CHRW AI stock analysis currently reads C.H. Robinson as a scaled, asset-light logistics broker with improving operating discipline, strong returns on capital, and a credible Lean AI productivity story. The caution is valuation: after a sharp re-rating, the stock already discounts a cleaner freight-cycle recovery, continued NAST share gains, and sustained cost leverage. The CHRW AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction, and the setup needs evidence that earnings can grow without depending only on multiple expansion.
Current price
$190.95
Market cap
$22.51 billion verified market cap
AI score
61 / 100
Rating
High-quality logistics operator, valuation and freight-cycle risk
Trend status
Positive technical trend above major moving averages, with resistance near the recent high area
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | C.H. Robinson earns revenue by arranging freight, logistics, sourcing, and supply-chain services for shippers through an asset-light network model. | High |
| Moat | Scale, carrier relationships, customer data, shipment density, route expertise, and technology workflows create advantages, but freight brokerage remains competitive and cyclical. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Dave Bozeman has pushed Lean operating discipline and AI-enabled productivity since joining in 2023, with early evidence in margins and market-share commentary. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue fell to $16.233 billion, but net income rose to $587.1 million. Q1 2026 revenue slipped 0.8% while net income rose 8.8% to $147.2 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $190.95 and TTM EPS near $4.94, CHRW trades near 38.65x earnings and about 26.67x free cash flow per share, leaving limited room for execution disappointment. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The stock trades above its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, while RSI readings are neutral rather than deeply overbought. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are freight recession, weaker truckload spot pricing, Global Forwarding pressure, ocean capacity, customer churn, AI execution gaps, and multiple compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high because public filings and market sources agree. Return confidence is lower because future freight demand and valuation are less knowable. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | CHRW looks like a better-run logistics compounder than two years ago, but the stock is not a high-certainty bargain after the recent re-rating. | Medium |
CHRW AI stock forecast
The CHRW AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $190.95 price reference, TTM EPS of $4.94, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The audited model produced a bearish area near $98.80, a base area near $169.40, and a bullish area near $236.00 before dividends.
$225 to $245
More likely if NAST volumes keep outperforming the freight market, Lean AI lowers cost to serve, Global Forwarding stabilizes, adjusted EPS compounds near low double digits, and investors keep paying a premium earnings multiple.
$160 to $180
More likely if EPS grows near high single digits, the freight cycle improves gradually, buybacks continue, and the market values CHRW closer to a high-20s earnings multiple.
$95 to $110
More likely if freight demand weakens, price competition compresses gross profit per transaction, Global Forwarding stays soft, AI productivity disappoints, or the stock re-rates toward a 20x earnings multiple.
CHRW AI technical analysis
CHRW AI technical analysis is constructive as of the July 8, 2026 cutoff. Investing.com and TipRanks showed the stock above key moving averages, while ChartMill placed support near $181.17 and resistance near $190.06. The trend is positive, but the price is close enough to resistance that confirmation matters.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $190.95 | Recent quote reference used for valuation and market-cap verification on July 8, 2026. |
| Immediate support | $181 to $186 | This zone overlaps ChartMill support near $181.17 and the 20-day to 50-day moving average area reported by Barchart and TipRanks. |
| Deeper support | $165 to $166 | This area is close to the 200-day moving average references from Barchart, TipRanks, and Intellectia. |
| Near resistance | $190 to $194 | ChartMill listed resistance near $190.06, while Intellectia cited immediate resistance near $193.75. |
| Moving averages | 5-day $188.56, 20-day $186.46, 50-day about $179 to $185, 200-day about $165 to $184 | Different technical providers update at different times, but the common signal is price above major moving averages. |
| Momentum | RSI roughly 51 to 56 | Investing.com and TipRanks both showed neutral RSI rather than an extreme momentum reading. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 1.43M shares | Barchart reported 20-day average volume around 1.43 million shares in its moving-average table. |
| Volatility | Watch earnings gap risk | Next earnings and freight-cycle commentary can matter more than a normal daily move because valuation is elevated. |
| Invalidation | Close below $165 | A close below the 200-day area would weaken the trend-following setup and shift focus toward capital preservation. |
CHRW AI trading strategy
The CHRW AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It combines freight-cycle data, Lean AI execution checks, valuation discipline, and technical invalidation levels.
Watch for CHRW to break and hold above the $190 to $194 resistance area while Q2 results confirm NAST share gains, stable adjusted gross profit, and continued operating leverage.
A failed breakout back below $181 or a close below the 50-day area should reduce setup confidence.
If CHRW pulls back toward $181 to $186 without a deterioration in freight demand or margin commentary, compare the valuation reset with EPS growth, buybacks, and peer logistics stocks.
Do not treat the pullback as benign if Global Forwarding declines accelerate, truckload pricing turns against brokers, or cash conversion weakens.
Track NAST adjusted gross profit, truckload volumes, gross margin, Global Forwarding ocean and air volumes, operating expenses, AI productivity disclosures, free cash flow, repurchases, and dividend coverage.
Position sizing should reflect that CHRW is a cyclical logistics stock trading at a premium valuation, not a bond-like dividend substitute.
Investment research summary
Customers pay C.H. Robinson because shippers need capacity, routing, pricing, visibility, and execution across fragmented freight markets. The company converts network density, data, and logistics expertise into lower friction for customers and carriers.
The moat is strongest in scale, carrier access, shipment data, customer workflows, brand trust, and accumulated logistics know-how. It is weaker than a regulated monopoly because price-sensitive shippers can shift volume when service or price disappoints.
The thesis fails if Lean AI savings prove temporary, if freight demand stays weak, if price competition erodes adjusted gross profit per transaction, or if a premium earnings multiple compresses before EPS catches up.
Dave Bozeman brought outside operating experience from supply chain, manufacturing, transportation, and customer service roles. The management test is whether Lean AI and the Robinson Operating Model create durable productivity instead of one-time cost cuts.
Logistics demand benefits from complex supply chains, outsourcing, e-commerce fulfillment, and the need for real-time visibility. The offset is that freight brokerage remains exposed to truckload cycles, ocean capacity, fuel, tariffs, and customer procurement pressure.
At about 38.65x TTM EPS, CHRW has less margin of safety than the business-quality story alone suggests. A better risk-reward setup needs either faster earnings growth or a lower entry price after the recent re-rating.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHRW quote reference | $190.95 recent price reference on July 8, 2026 | GuruFocus CHRW summary | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $22.51 billion calculated from $190.95 x 117.87 million shares | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis share data | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 117.87 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis CHRW statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $16.233 billion revenue and $587.1 million net income | C.H. Robinson 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and net income | $4.01 billion revenue, $147.2 million net income, and $1.22 diluted EPS | C.H. Robinson Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 adjusted EPS | $1.35 adjusted diluted EPS, up 15.4% year over year | C.H. Robinson Q1 2026 earnings summary | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $160.9 million cash and $1.089 billion total debt at December 31, 2025 | C.H. Robinson 2025 Form 10-K | July 8, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 38.65x PE, 1.39x sales, 13.24x book, and 26.24x FCF | StockAnalysis CHRW statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Lean AI operating context | Company reported 30+ AI agents and Lean AI productivity initiatives across logistics workflows | C.H. Robinson Lean AI strategy materials | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical trend data | Price above major moving averages, neutral RSI, support near $181.17, resistance near $190.06 | Investing.com, TipRanks, Barchart, and ChartMill technical pages | July 8, 2026 |
This CHRW AI stock analysis is for informational and educational use only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenario estimates based on available public data as of July 8, 2026, and they can be wrong if fundamentals, market prices, freight conditions, or investor sentiment change.
