Brown & Brown, Inc. research snapshot
BRO AI stock analysis currently reads Brown & Brown as a durable insurance brokerage compounder with scale, carrier relationships, recurring commission revenue, and a long acquisition record. The caution is that 2025 and Q1 2026 growth were heavily affected by acquisitions, especially Accession, while Q1 2026 Organic Revenue was flat. The forecast is scenario-based rather than a fixed price prediction, and the current setup needs evidence that Accession integration, debt reduction, organic growth, and margin discipline can offset softer insurance-market and valuation pressure.
Current price
$69.27
Market cap
$23.48 billion verified market cap
AI score
63 / 100
Rating
Durable insurance broker, integration and organic growth watch
Trend status
Short-term rebound above the 5-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages, but still below the 200-day moving average
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Brown & Brown earns commissions, fees, contingents, and service revenue by distributing insurance and risk-management solutions across Retail, Programs, Wholesale, and Services. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from local client relationships, producer talent, carrier access, specialty expertise, acquisition sourcing, scale, and embedded insurance workflows rather than patent-like protection. | Medium-high |
| Management | J. Powell Brown leads a long-tenured acquisition and operating culture, but Accession integration and higher leverage make capital allocation discipline more important than in earlier years. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose to $5.902 billion and net income was $1.054 billion, while Q1 2026 revenue rose 35.4% to $1.901 billion and net income rose 28.7% to $426 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $69.27, FY2025 EPS of $3.16, and Q1 2026 equity per share near $37.21, BRO trades near 21.92x earnings, 1.86x book value, and a 6.38% FY2025 free cash flow yield. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The stock has bounced above short and medium moving averages, but the 200-day moving average near $73.14 remains overhead resistance. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are flat organic growth, insurance pricing softness, producer retention, acquisition integration, leverage, goodwill impairment, regulatory claims, cyber risk, and multiple compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high because filings and third-party data are available. Return confidence is lower because acquisition integration, organic growth, rates, and sentiment are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | BRO looks like a durable insurance distribution business, but the stock is not a simple buy without a view on post-Accession execution and the price paid for that execution. | Medium |
BRO AI stock forecast
The BRO AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $69.27 price reference, FY2025 EPS of $3.16, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The audited model produced a bearish area near $47.60, a base area near $72.50, and a bullish area near $94.10 before dividends.
$88 to $98
More likely if Accession integration goes smoothly, Organic Revenue turns positive, contingents stay healthy, cash conversion funds debt reduction, margins hold above peer expectations, and investors pay a mid-20s earnings multiple.
$68 to $78
More likely if EPS grows near low-single to mid-single digits, debt gradually declines, acquisition contribution normalizes, and BRO trades near a low-20s earnings multiple.
$45 to $50
More likely if Organic Revenue stays weak, commercial insurance pricing softens, producer turnover rises, Accession synergies disappoint, leverage limits flexibility, or BRO is re-rated toward a mid-teens earnings multiple.
BRO AI technical analysis
BRO AI technical analysis is mixed as of the July 8, 2026 cutoff. Yahoo Finance chart data showed BRO at $69.27 on July 7, 2026, above the 5-day moving average near $67.84, 20-day moving average near $62.15, and 50-day moving average near $59.68. The stock remains below the 200-day moving average near $73.14, so the rebound still needs confirmation.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $69.27 | Yahoo Finance chart snapshot for July 7, 2026 used as the current price reference for this page. |
| Immediate support | $67 to $68 | This zone is anchored around the 5-day moving average and the early-July rebound range. |
| Secondary support | $62 to $63 | The 20-day moving average near $62.15 is the first pullback zone if short-term momentum cools. |
| Deeper support | $59 to $60 | The 50-day moving average near $59.68 is the medium-term level that should hold for the recovery thesis to remain intact. |
| Near resistance | $70.50 to $73.50 | The July 7 intraday high near $70.50 is immediate resistance, followed by the 200-day moving average near $73.14. |
| Moving averages | 5-day $67.84, 20-day $62.15, 50-day $59.68, 200-day $73.14 | Calculated from Yahoo Finance daily close data through July 7, 2026. |
| Momentum | Recovering but not fully repaired | Price above the 5-day, 20-day, and 50-day averages supports a rebound, but price below the 200-day average keeps the long trend under review. |
| Volume and volatility | Watch earnings and integration updates | Volume around Q2 earnings, Accession integration commentary, and debt updates should matter more than a one-day price move. |
| Invalidation | Close below $59 | A close below the 50-day moving average would weaken the rebound and shift the setup toward capital preservation. |
BRO AI trading strategy
The BRO AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It combines insurance-broker fundamentals, Accession integration checks, leverage monitoring, technical confirmation, and predefined invalidation levels.
Watch for BRO to reclaim and hold the $70.50 to $73.50 resistance zone while Q2 results show positive Organic Revenue, stable margins, cash generation, and credible Accession integration progress.
A failed move back below $67 or a close below the 50-day moving average should reduce setup confidence.
If BRO pulls back toward $62 to $63 without new integration, debt, or organic-growth damage, compare the price reaction with insurance broker peers and updates on property and casualty pricing.
Do not treat the pullback as benign if management lowers organic-growth commentary, debt metrics worsen, or price closes below $59.
Track Organic Revenue, Organic Revenue with Contingents, EBITDAC margin, free cash flow, debt reduction, acquisition contribution, producer retention, contingents, and insurance pricing by line.
Position sizing should reflect that BRO has acquisition integration risk, balance-sheet leverage, financial-sector sentiment risk, and possible multiple compression.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Brown & Brown because businesses, institutions, programs, and individuals need insurance placement, risk advice, carrier access, specialty distribution, claims support, and outsourced insurance services.
The moat is strongest in producer relationships, local trust, specialty niches, carrier relationships, acquisition execution, and scale. It is weaker than a monopoly because clients and producers can move if service quality falls.
The thesis fails if acquisitions mask weak organic demand, Accession integration disrupts culture, commercial pricing softens, leverage limits future deals, or goodwill and intangible assets prove overvalued.
J. Powell Brown has deep company history and a culture built around decentralized brokerage teams and acquisitions. The next test is whether management can integrate Accession without diluting margins, talent retention, or capital discipline.
Insurance brokerage benefits from risk complexity, specialty coverage, outsourcing, and commercial insurance demand. The offset is that broker growth depends on pricing cycles, client exposure units, producer quality, and acquisition availability.
At about 21.92x FY2025 EPS, BRO is not priced as a distressed broker. Margin of safety depends on renewed organic growth, clean Accession execution, debt reduction, and avoiding a valuation reset below low-20s earnings multiples.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| BRO quote reference | $69.27 regular-market price on July 7, 2026 | Yahoo Finance chart data | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $23.48 billion calculated from $69.27 x 338.95 million shares | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis share data | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 338.95 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis BRO statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $5.902 billion revenue and $1.054 billion net income | Brown & Brown 2025 Form 10-K and Q4 2025 release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and net income | $1.901 billion revenue, $426 million net income, and $1.06 diluted EPS | Brown & Brown Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Organic Revenue signal | Q1 2026 Organic Revenue was flat, while Organic Revenue with Contingents increased 2.2% | Brown & Brown Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $1.003 billion cash and equivalents, $7.822 billion total long-term debt including current portion as of March 31, 2026 | Brown & Brown Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 8, 2026 |
| Accession acquisition | Brown & Brown agreed to acquire Accession Risk Management Group for $9.825 billion in 2025 | Brown & Brown acquisition announcement | July 8, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 21.92x FY2025 EPS, 1.86x book value, 15.67x FY2025 free cash flow, and 0.95% dividend yield | Pineify financial_rigor.py using SEC, Yahoo Finance, and StockAnalysis inputs | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical moving averages | 5-day $67.84, 20-day $62.15, 50-day $59.68, and 200-day $73.14 | Yahoo Finance daily chart data and Pineify calculation | July 8, 2026 |
This BRO AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 8, 2026 and may be wrong if earnings, acquisitions, debt, insurance pricing, regulation, litigation, market sentiment, or valuation multiples change.
