Brown & Brown, Inc. research snapshot
BRO AI stock analysis reads Brown & Brown as a durable insurance brokerage compounder with scale, carrier relationships, recurring commission revenue, and a long acquisition record. The caution is that Q2 2026 revenue grew 30.4% mostly through acquisitions while Organic Revenue fell 0.7%, the diluted share count rose about 14% because of Accession financing, adjusted EBITDAC margin contracted, and the stock fell after the report. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, BRO traded near $70.40 with a verified market capitalization of about $23.56 billion. The forecast is scenario-based rather than a fixed price prediction, and the setup needs evidence that Accession integration, debt reduction, organic growth, and margin discipline can offset insurance-market softness and valuation pressure.
Current price
$70.40
Market cap
$23.56 billion verified market cap
AI score
61 / 100
Rating
Durable insurance broker, but Q2 organic revenue turned negative and Accession share dilution weighs on per-share growth
Trend status
Mixed. Price holds above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages but sits just below the 200-day moving average after a post-earnings pullback
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Brown & Brown earns commissions, fees, contingents, and service revenue by distributing insurance and risk-management solutions across Retail and Specialty Distribution. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from local client relationships, producer talent, carrier access, specialty expertise, acquisition sourcing, scale, and embedded insurance workflows rather than patent-like protection. | Medium-high |
| Management | J. Powell Brown leads a long-tenured acquisition and operating culture, but Accession integration, negative organic growth, and higher leverage make capital allocation discipline more important than in earlier years. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue rose 30.4% to $1.67 billion and GAAP net income rose 24.7% to $288 million, but Organic Revenue fell 0.7%, adjusted EPS rose only 3.9% to $1.07, and adjusted EBITDAC margin contracted to 35.7%. | High |
| Valuation | At $70.40, audited math shows about 22.2x trailing EPS, 15.3x forward adjusted EPS, 1.85x book value, 16.3x trailing free cash flow, and a 0.94% dividend yield. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The stock trades above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages but below the 200-day moving average near $70.91 after the post-earnings decline. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are negative organic growth, insurance pricing softness, producer retention, Accession integration, share dilution, leverage, goodwill impairment, regulatory claims, cyber risk, and multiple compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high because filings and third-party data are available. Return confidence is lower because organic growth, integration, rates, share count, and sentiment are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | BRO looks like a durable insurance distribution business, but the stock is not a simple buy without a view on organic growth recovery, post-Accession execution, dilution, and the price paid for that execution. | Medium-low |
BRO AI stock forecast
The BRO AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $70.40 price reference, a 2026 adjusted EPS base near $4.47, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The audited model produced a bearish area near $50 to $62, a base area near $72 to $85, and a bullish area near $105 to $120 before dividends.
$105 to $120
More likely if Accession integration goes smoothly, Organic Revenue turns positive, contingents stay healthy, cash conversion funds debt reduction, margins stabilize, diluted share growth slows, and investors pay a high-teens to low-20s earnings multiple.
$72 to $85
More likely if adjusted EPS grows at a low-to-mid single-digit rate, debt gradually declines, dilution moderates, organic growth stabilizes near flat, and BRO trades near a mid-teens earnings multiple.
$50 to $62
More likely if Organic Revenue stays negative, commercial insurance pricing softens, producer turnover rises, Accession synergies disappoint, share dilution and leverage limit flexibility, or BRO is re-rated toward a low-teens earnings multiple.
BRO AI technical analysis
BRO AI technical analysis is mixed as of the August 2, 2026 cutoff. StockAnalysis showed BRO at $70.40 on July 31, 2026, above the 20-day moving average near $68.94 and the 50-day moving average near $63.40, but below the 200-day moving average near $70.91 and the 5-day moving average near $71.90 after the post-earnings pullback.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $70.40 | StockAnalysis regular-market close for July 31, 2026 used as the current price reference for this page. |
| Immediate support | $68.90 to $69.50 | This zone is anchored around the 20-day moving average near $68.94 and the July 31 intraday low near $69.28. |
| Secondary support | $63.40 | The 50-day moving average near $63.40 is the first medium-term level that should hold for the recovery thesis to remain intact. |
| Deeper support | $60 to $63 | A zone between the 50-day moving average and the early-June price area would be the next technical line of defense if selling resumes. |
| Near resistance | $70.90 to $72.50 | The 200-day moving average near $70.91 and the 5-day moving average near $71.90 create the first overhead cluster. |
| Upper resistance | $74 to $76 | The July 28 to July 29 reaction high near $74.87 to $75.63 marks the stronger resistance zone after the earnings rally faded. |
| Moving averages | 5-day $71.90, 20-day $68.94, 50-day $63.40, 200-day $70.91 | 5-day and 20-day averages are computed from Yahoo Finance daily closes through July 31, 2026; 50-day and 200-day averages are from StockAnalysis. |
| Momentum | Recovering but capped by the 200-day average | RSI near 57.08 on StockAnalysis is neutral-to-positive, but price below the 200-day average keeps the long-term trend under review. |
| Volume and volatility | Elevated around the Q2 report | Volume spiked on the July 27 to July 29 earnings reaction and then faded, so the post-report price action deserves a longer confirmation window. |
| Invalidation | Close below $63.40 | A close below the 50-day moving average would weaken the recovery and shift the setup toward capital preservation. |
BRO AI trading strategy
The BRO AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It combines insurance-broker fundamentals, Accession integration checks, organic-growth and dilution monitoring, leverage tracking, technical confirmation, and predefined invalidation levels.
Watch for BRO to reclaim and hold above the $70.90 to $72.50 zone while Q3 results show Organic Revenue improving toward flat or positive, stable margins, cash generation, and credible Accession integration progress.
A failed move back below the 20-day moving average near $68.94 or a close below the 50-day moving average should reduce setup confidence.
If BRO pulls back toward $63.40 to $68.90 without new integration, debt, organic-growth, or dilution damage, compare the price reaction with insurance broker peers and updates on property and casualty pricing.
Do not treat the pullback as benign if management lowers organic-growth commentary, debt metrics worsen, the share count expands sharply, or price closes below the 50-day moving average.
Track Organic Revenue, Organic Revenue with Contingents, adjusted EBITDAC margin, free cash flow, debt reduction, diluted share count, acquisition contribution, producer retention, contingents, and insurance pricing by line.
Position sizing should reflect that BRO has acquisition integration risk, negative organic growth, share dilution from Accession financing, balance-sheet leverage, financial-sector sentiment risk, and possible multiple compression.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Brown & Brown because businesses, institutions, programs, and individuals need insurance placement, risk advice, carrier access, specialty distribution, claims support, and outsourced insurance services.
The moat is strongest in producer relationships, local trust, specialty niches, carrier relationships, acquisition execution, and scale. It is weaker than a monopoly because clients and producers can move if service quality falls.
The thesis fails if acquisitions mask weak organic demand, Accession integration disrupts culture, share dilution erodes per-share value, commercial pricing softens, leverage limits future deals, or goodwill and intangible assets prove overvalued.
J. Powell Brown has deep company history and a culture built around decentralized brokerage teams and acquisitions. The next test is whether management can integrate Accession while restoring organic growth, protecting margins and talent, and managing dilution and debt.
Insurance brokerage benefits from risk complexity, specialty coverage, outsourcing, and commercial insurance demand. The offset is that broker growth depends on pricing cycles, client exposure units, producer quality, and acquisition availability.
At about 22.2x trailing EPS and 15.3x forward adjusted EPS, BRO is cheaper than its five-year average but not distressed. Margin of safety depends on renewed organic growth, clean Accession execution, slower dilution, debt reduction, and avoiding a valuation reset below mid-teens earnings multiples.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| BRO quote reference | $70.40 regular-market price on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis BRO quote | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $23.56 billion calculated from $70.40 x 334.61 million shares | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis share data | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 334.61 million shares outstanding, up 17.07% year over year | StockAnalysis BRO statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue and adjusted EPS | $1.67 billion revenue up 30.4% and $1.07 adjusted EPS up 3.9%, slightly below consensus | Brown & Brown Q2 2026 results release reported July 27, 2026 | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 GAAP net income and diluted EPS | $288 million GAAP net income up 24.7% and $0.84 diluted GAAP EPS up 7.7% | Brown & Brown Q2 2026 results release reported July 27, 2026 | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 Organic Revenue signal | Organic Revenue fell 0.7%, while Organic Revenue with Contingents increased 0.7% | Brown & Brown Q2 2026 results release reported July 27, 2026 | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDAC | $598 million adjusted EBITDAC up 27%, with margin contracting about 100 basis points to 35.7% | Brown & Brown Q2 2026 results release reported July 27, 2026 | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 segment detail | Retail revenue $947 million up 35.9% with organic up 1.5%; Specialty Distribution revenue $721 million up 28.1% with organic down 3.5% | Brown & Brown Q2 2026 results release reported July 27, 2026 | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $918 million cash and equivalents and about $8.0 billion total debt as of June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis balance sheet and Q2 2026 10-Q data | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | $6.66 billion trailing twelve-month revenue and about $1.19 billion net income through June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis BRO financials | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $5.902 billion revenue and $1.054 billion net income | Brown & Brown 2025 Form 10-K | August 2, 2026 |
| Accession acquisition | Brown & Brown agreed to acquire Accession Risk Management Group for $9.825 billion in 2025, partly funded with equity that lifted the share count | Brown & Brown acquisition announcement and Q2 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 22.2x trailing EPS, 15.3x forward adjusted EPS, 1.85x book value, 16.3x trailing free cash flow, and 0.94% dividend yield | Pineify financial_rigor.py using StockAnalysis inputs and reported figures | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Consensus Hold with an average price target of $75.69 and a range of $56 to $90 across 19 analysts | StockAnalysis forecast data | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical moving averages | 5-day $71.90, 20-day $68.94, 50-day $63.40, and 200-day $70.91 | Yahoo Finance daily chart data and StockAnalysis technical data | August 2, 2026 |
This BRO AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and may be wrong if earnings, organic growth, acquisitions, dilution, debt, insurance pricing, regulation, litigation, market sentiment, or valuation multiples change.
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