Aon plc research snapshot
AON AI stock analysis currently reads Aon plc as a high-quality professional services compounder with global insurance brokerage, reinsurance, health, wealth, data, and analytics exposure. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, AON traded near $359.82 with a verified market capitalization near $77.51 billion. The business has recurring client demand, scale, high margins, and strong free cash flow, but the stock already prices in steady execution, NFP integration benefits, buybacks, and durable organic growth. This page uses scenarios, not a certain stock price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$359.82
Market cap
$77.51 billion
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
High-quality global insurance and human-capital advisor, valuation and execution risk need discipline
Trend status
Bullish technical setup above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, but close to the 52-week high zone
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Aon is a global professional services firm serving clients through Risk Capital and Human Capital, with 2025 revenue of $17.181 billion and Q1 2026 revenue growth of 6%. | High |
| Moat | The moat is built on client relationships, switching costs, regulatory knowledge, data, analytics, global placement scale, carrier access, and consultant expertise. | High |
| Management | CEO Greg Case has led Aon for many years and continues to drive Aon United, the 3x3 Plan, margin expansion, dividends, and share repurchases. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 9% to $17.181 billion, net income attributable to Aon shareholders rose to $3.695 billion, and Q1 2026 adjusted EPS increased 14% to $6.48. | High |
| Valuation | At $359.82, verified math shows about 19.8x TTM EPS, 24.1x free cash flow per share, 7.8x book value, 4.5x sales per share, and a 0.91% dividend yield. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Investing.com listed daily technicals as Strong Buy, with RSI near 66.5 and price above cited 50-day and 200-day moving averages. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include insurance pricing cycles, client budget pressure, regulatory scrutiny, cyber risk, producer turnover, NFP integration, leverage, and multiple compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for historical and reported data, medium for forward scenarios and trading timing. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. AON is a strong business, but the page frames valuation and monitoring rules rather than a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
AON AI stock forecast
The AON AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $359.82 quote and TTM EPS of $18.22. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $309, a base area near $434, and a bullish area near $543 before dividends.
$510 to $560
More likely if Aon sustains mid-single-digit or better organic revenue growth, expands adjusted margins, captures NFP and Aon United benefits, keeps producer retention strong, and continues buybacks without stretching leverage.
$410 to $455
More likely if EPS compounds around the mid-single digits, Risk Capital remains resilient, Human Capital stabilizes, free cash flow conversion stays strong, and the market values AON near a 20x earnings multiple.
$295 to $320
More likely if organic growth slows, insurance pricing weakens, consulting demand softens, NFP integration costs rise, debt limits repurchases, or the market assigns a lower multiple to brokerage earnings.
AON AI technical analysis
AON AI technical analysis is constructive as of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. The current quote used for this page is $359.82. Investing.com listed daily technicals as Strong Buy, RSI at 66.532, the 50-day moving average at $341.38, and the 200-day moving average at $328.83. MarketWatch reported a recent $357.46 close that was 6.18% below the $381.00 52-week high.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $359.82 | Current quote used for valuation and market-cap verification at the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Recent close | $357.46 | MarketWatch reported AON closed at $357.46 on July 2, 2026 after a 4.05% rally. |
| Short moving average | $360.64 | Investing.com listed the 5-day moving average near the current quote, so short-term momentum is constructive but close to resistance. |
| 50-day moving average | $341.38 | AON trading above this level supports the current bullish technical setup. |
| 200-day moving average | $328.83 | A close below the 200-day average would weaken the medium-term trend framework. |
| Momentum | RSI 66.532 | Investing.com classified the 14-day RSI as Buy, which supports momentum but is no guarantee of follow-through. |
| Volume | 1.2 million versus 1.7 million average | MarketWatch reported July 2 volume below the 50-day average, so breakout quality would improve with stronger participation. |
| Resistance | $381.00 | MarketWatch cited this as AONs 52-week high reference in its July 2026 quote snapshot. |
| Invalidation | Close below $341.38 | A decisive break below the 50-day moving average would reduce confidence in the current trend-following setup. |
AON AI trading strategy
The AON AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a global insurance brokerage and advisory compounder. It is not personal advice and should be paired with current prices, moving averages, earnings updates, insurance-market conditions, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch whether AON can hold above the $341.38 50-day moving average and challenge the $381.00 52-week high with volume above recent average. Confirmation should include stable Q2 guidance commentary, no negative NFP integration update, and continued organic revenue growth.
A failed breakout followed by a close below the 50-day moving average should reduce confidence in the near-term trend setup.
If AON pulls back toward the $328.83 to $341.38 moving-average zone without an EPS or free-cash-flow warning, compare the new price to P/E, FCF yield, buyback capacity, debt, and peer broker multiples before assuming support is durable.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because a quality brokerage can still reprice quickly if organic growth or margins disappoint.
Track organic revenue growth, adjusted operating margin expansion, free cash flow, producer retention, NFP integration, repurchase pace, debt maturities, fiduciary investment income, and Risk Capital versus Human Capital mix.
Reduce confidence if EPS growth depends mainly on buybacks or one-time gains while organic revenue, margins, or free cash flow weaken.
Investment research summary
Aon helps companies, institutions, and governments understand, price, transfer, and manage risk, health, retirement, and workforce decisions. Clients pay because these problems are high-stakes, recurring, regulated, and difficult to solve with generic software alone.
Aons moat comes from long client relationships, broker and consultant expertise, global carrier access, data, analytics, placement scale, regulatory process knowledge, and switching costs embedded in annual risk and benefits workflows.
The thesis fails if organic growth fades, top producers leave, cyber or regulatory failures damage trust, insurance pricing softens, NFP integration misses targets, leverage limits capital returns, or the market stops paying a premium multiple for brokerage earnings.
Greg Case and the leadership team should be judged by organic growth, adjusted margin expansion, free cash flow conversion, disciplined buybacks, dividend coverage, NFP integration, and whether Aon United improves client outcomes rather than only reported margin optics. The 2026 proxy listed directors and executive officers as a group at 1.0% beneficial ownership.
Aon benefits from more complex global risk, cyber exposure, climate and catastrophe risk, healthcare cost pressure, retirement complexity, and demand for analytics, but these trends are competitive and can be offset by client cost pressure.
At roughly 19.8x TTM EPS and 24.1x free cash flow per share, AON needs steady execution. Margin of safety improves if the stock pulls back while organic growth, margin expansion, cash flow, and buyback capacity remain intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| AON price and market capitalization | $359.82 price and $77.51 billion market cap, verified as $359.82 x 215.4 million diluted shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $17.181 billion, cross-checked against Macrotrends | Aon 2025 Form 10-K | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income and diluted EPS | $3.695 billion net income attributable to Aon shareholders and $17.02 diluted EPS | Aon FY2025 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 free cash flow | $3.218 billion free cash flow and $3.5 billion operating cash flow | Aon FY2025 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | $5.034 billion revenue, $1.212 billion net income attributable to Aon shareholders, $5.63 diluted EPS, and $6.48 adjusted EPS | Aon Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 segment revenue | $3.502 billion Risk Capital revenue and $1.539 billion Human Capital revenue | Aon Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 cash, short-term investments, debt, and equity | $1.178 billion cash, $238 million short-term investments, $1.121 billion short-term debt/current long-term debt, $13.542 billion long-term debt, and $9.834 billion Aon shareholder equity | Aon Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares | 215.4 million diluted weighted-average shares and 213.6 million issued shares at March 31, 2026 | Aon Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Dividend | $0.820 quarterly dividend declared April 10, 2026, equal to a $3.28 annualized rate if maintained | Aon dividend announcement | July 8, 2026 |
| Management ownership | Gregory C. Case beneficial ownership of 1,621,774 Class A shares and all directors and executive officers as a group at 2,144,049 shares, or 1.0% of class, as of April 10, 2026 | Aon 2026 Proxy Statement | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | RSI 66.532, 5-day moving average $360.64, 50-day moving average $341.38, and 200-day moving average $328.83 | Investing.com technical analysis | July 8, 2026 |
This AON AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell securities, and not a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of July 8, 2026 and may be wrong if fundamentals, organic growth, margins, leverage, integration execution, valuation multiples, market conditions, or source data change.
