Aon plc research snapshot
AON AI stock analysis reads Aon plc as a high-quality professional services firm with recurring client demand in risk, reinsurance, health, wealth, and human-capital services. At the August 2, 2026 research cutoff, AON closed at $360.55 on July 31, 2026 with a verified market capitalization near $76.48 billion. Second-quarter 2026 results, reported July 29, 2026, showed 5% organic revenue growth, adjusted operating margin expansion to 28.9%, and a 9% rise in adjusted EPS to $3.81, while GAAP diluted EPS fell 3% to $2.58 because of divestitures, a higher effective tax rate, and integration items. The stock trades near 20x trailing earnings and about 24x free cash flow per share, so the current price already assumes steady execution, buybacks, and 2026 guidance delivery. This page uses scenarios, not a certain price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$360.55
Market cap
$76.48 billion
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
High-quality global risk and human-capital advisory firm, fairly valued with execution and leverage risk
Trend status
Bullish above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, but momentum cooled below the $382.34 52-week high zone
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Aon is a global professional services firm serving clients through Risk Capital and Human Capital, with Q2 2026 revenue of $4.246 billion, 5% organic revenue growth, and a 28.9% adjusted operating margin. | High |
| Moat | The moat is built on client relationships, switching costs, regulatory knowledge, data and analytics, global placement scale, carrier access, and consultant expertise. | High |
| Management | CEO Greg Case has led Aon since 2005 and continues to drive Aon United and the 3x3 Plan, organic growth, margin expansion, dividends, and share repurchases, with about $7.7 billion of buyback authorization remaining. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | H1 2026 revenue rose 4% to $9.280 billion, diluted EPS rose 16% to $8.22, adjusted EPS rose 12% to $10.29, and free cash flow rose 4% to $846 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $360.55, verified math shows about 19.9x TTM EPS, 23.6x free cash flow per share, 8.0x book value, 4.4x sales per share, and a 0.91% dividend yield. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Price sits above the 50-day moving average near $340.60 and the 200-day moving average near $336.56, but RSI cooled to about 53 and price is below the $382.34 52-week high. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include insurance pricing cycles, client budget pressure, regulatory scrutiny, cyber risk, producer turnover, the NFP Wealth divestiture, leverage, tax rate swings, and multiple compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for historical and reported data, medium for forward scenarios and trading timing. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. AON is a strong business, but the page frames valuation and monitoring rules rather than a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
AON AI stock forecast
The AON AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $360.55 quote and TTM diluted EPS of $18.14. A three-year framework produced a bearish area near $290, a base area near $420, and a bullish area near $489 before dividends, depending on EPS growth and the multiple investors assign.
$470 to $510
More likely if Aon sustains mid-single-digit or better organic revenue growth, expands adjusted operating margin toward its 2026 guidance of 70 to 80 basis points, keeps producer retention strong, continues buybacks from the $7.7 billion authorization, and holds adjusted EPS compounding in the high single digits.
$405 to $440
More likely if EPS compounds around 5% a year, Risk Capital keeps growing with the 5% organic pace, Human Capital stabilizes after the NFP Wealth divestiture, free cash flow growth stays double-digit as guided, and the market values AON near a 20x earnings multiple.
$275 to $305
More likely if organic growth slows, insurance pricing weakens, Human Capital revenue keeps falling, the effective tax rate stays elevated, integration or leverage costs rise, buybacks slow, or the market assigns a lower multiple to brokerage earnings.
AON AI technical analysis
AON AI technical analysis is cautiously constructive as of the July 31, 2026 close. The current quote used for this page is $360.55, above the 50-day moving average near $340.60 and the 200-day moving average near $336.56. RSI cooled to about 53 from an overbought zone in early July, and the stock sits about 6% below its $382.34 52-week high after a July 30 close of $366.57.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $360.55 | Closing price on July 31, 2026, down 1.64% on the day, used for valuation and market-cap verification at the August 2, 2026 research cutoff. |
| Recent close | $366.57 | July 30, 2026 close was the recent session before the July 31 pullback, keeping the short-term setup choppy below the 52-week high. |
| 50-day moving average | $340.60 | AON trading above this level supports the current bullish technical setup as of July 31, 2026. |
| 200-day moving average | $336.56 | A close below the 200-day average would weaken the medium-term trend framework. |
| Momentum | RSI 52.99 | The 14-day RSI cooled from an overbought reading near 66 in early July to a neutral zone, so momentum no longer supports a fast breakout by itself. |
| Volume | 1.3 million versus 1.3 million average | July 31 volume of about 1.32 million shares was close to the 20-day average near 1.30 million, so breakout quality would improve with stronger participation. |
| Resistance | $382.34 | Cited as the 52-week high reference by Macrotrends and stockanalysis.com in the August 2026 quote snapshot. |
| Invalidation | Close below $340.60 | A decisive break below the 50-day moving average would reduce confidence in the current trend-following setup, with the 200-day near $336.56 as the next reference. |
AON AI trading strategy
The AON AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a global insurance brokerage and advisory firm. It is not personal advice and should be paired with current prices, moving averages, earnings updates, insurance-market conditions, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch whether AON can hold above the $340.60 50-day moving average and challenge the $382.34 52-week high with volume above the 1.3 million average. Confirmation should include stable 2026 guidance commentary, continued mid-single-digit organic growth, and no negative NFP integration or Human Capital update.
A failed breakout followed by a close below the 50-day moving average should reduce confidence in the near-term trend setup.
If AON pulls back toward the $336.56 to $340.60 moving-average zone without an EPS or free-cash-flow warning, compare the new price to P/E, FCF yield, buyback capacity, debt, and peer broker multiples before assuming support is durable.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because a quality brokerage can still reprice quickly if organic growth, margins, or free cash flow disappoint.
Track organic revenue growth, adjusted operating margin expansion, free cash flow, producer retention, the NFP Wealth divestiture wind-down, repurchase pace, the $7.7 billion buyback authorization, debt maturities, the effective tax rate, and Risk Capital versus Human Capital mix.
Reduce confidence if EPS growth depends mainly on buybacks or one-time items while organic revenue, margins, or free cash flow weaken.
Investment research summary
Aon helps companies, institutions, and governments understand, price, transfer, and manage risk, health, retirement, and workforce decisions. Clients pay because these problems are high-stakes, recurring, regulated, and difficult to solve with generic software alone.
Aon's moat comes from long client relationships, broker and consultant expertise, global carrier access, data and analytics, placement scale, regulatory process knowledge, and switching costs embedded in annual risk and benefits workflows.
The thesis fails if organic growth fades, top producers leave, cyber or regulatory failures damage trust, insurance pricing softens, Human Capital revenue keeps falling after the NFP Wealth divestiture, leverage limits capital returns, or the market stops paying a premium multiple for brokerage earnings.
Greg Case and the leadership team should be judged by organic growth, adjusted margin expansion, free cash flow conversion, disciplined buybacks, dividend coverage, the NFP Wealth divestiture, and whether Aon United improves client outcomes rather than only reported margin optics. The 2026 proxy listed CEO Gregory C. Case at 1,621,774 Class A shares and all directors and executive officers as a group at 2,144,049 shares, or 1.0% of the class.
Aon benefits from more complex global risk, cyber exposure, climate and catastrophe risk, healthcare cost pressure, retirement complexity, and demand for AI-powered analytics, but these trends are competitive and can be offset by client cost pressure.
At roughly 19.9x TTM EPS and 23.6x free cash flow per share, AON needs steady execution to justify the price. Margin of safety improves if the stock pulls back while organic growth, margin expansion, cash flow, and buyback capacity remain intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| AON price and market capitalization | $360.55 close on July 31, 2026 and $76.48 billion market cap, verified as $360.55 x 212.13 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 total revenue | $4.246 billion, up 2%, with 5% organic revenue growth and a 4% unfavorable divestiture impact from the NFP Wealth and Stroz Friedberg sales | Aon Q2 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 segment revenue | $3.006 billion Risk Capital revenue (up 5%) and $1.244 billion Human Capital revenue (down 4%) | Aon Q2 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 and first-half 2026 EPS | Q2 2026 diluted EPS of $2.58 (down 3%), adjusted EPS of $3.81 (up 9%); first-half 2026 diluted EPS of $8.22 (up 16%), adjusted EPS of $10.29 (up 12%) | Aon Q2 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| First-half 2026 free cash flow | $846 million free cash flow (up 4%) from $986 million operating cash flow less $140 million capital expenditures | Aon Q2 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | Reaffirmed mid-single-digit or greater organic revenue growth, 70 to 80 basis points of adjusted operating margin expansion, strong adjusted EPS growth, and double-digit free cash flow growth | Aon Q2 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Balance sheet at June 30, 2026 | $1.062 billion cash, $205 million short-term investments, $2.020 billion short-term debt and current long-term debt, $12.947 billion long-term debt, and $9.598 billion total Aon shareholders equity | Aon Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| Capital returns | Repurchased 1.9 million shares for about $600 million in Q2 2026 with about $7.7 billion of authorization remaining, and paid $0.820 per share quarterly dividend, a $3.28 annualized rate | Aon Q2 2026 results release and Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| Management ownership | CEO Gregory C. Case beneficial ownership of 1,621,774 Class A shares and all directors and executive officers as a group at 2,144,049 shares, or 1.0% of class, as of the 2026 proxy | Aon 2026 Proxy Statement | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | RSI 52.99, 50-day moving average $340.60, 200-day moving average $336.56, 20-day average volume about 1.30 million shares, and short interest near 4.55 million shares at 2.15% of shares outstanding | stockanalysis.com technical and statistics | August 2, 2026 |
This AON AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell securities, and not a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 2, 2026 and may be wrong if fundamentals, organic growth, margins, the NFP Wealth divestiture, leverage, tax rates, valuation multiples, market conditions, or source data change.
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