Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. research snapshot
AJG AI stock analysis currently reads Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. as a durable insurance brokerage, risk management, benefits, reinsurance, and claims administration platform with recurring client demand, acquisition-led scale, and strong cash generation. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, AJG last closed near $249.42 on July 31, 2026, with a verified market capitalization near $63.94 billion. Q2 2026 results released on July 30, 2026 showed total revenue growth of about 24% with 6% organic growth, but reported diluted earnings per share fell year over year because of AssuredPartners integration costs, higher amortization, and lower interest income, and the stock pulled back after the report. The business benefits from client relationships, producer talent, carrier access, data, and global placement scale, but the stock already reflects a quality narrative while integration execution, leverage, goodwill, organic growth, and the multiple assigned to reported earnings remain important. This page uses scenarios, not a certain stock price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$249.42
Market cap
$63.94 billion
AI score
69 / 100
Rating
High-quality brokerage compounder with strong revenue growth and organic momentum, but reported earnings are under integration and amortization pressure and the multiple remains demanding
Trend status
Mixed. Price holds above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages but sits about 20% below the 52-week high with neutral momentum after a post-earnings pullback
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Gallagher sells insurance brokerage, reinsurance, risk management, benefits, consulting, and claims administration services, with FY2025 revenue of $13.942 billion and TTM revenue of about $15.755 billion through June 30, 2026. | High |
| Moat | The moat is built on long client relationships, producer talent, switching costs, carrier access, regulatory knowledge, data, analytics, and acquisition-driven scale. | High |
| Management | CEO J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr. has a long operating and acquisition record, but 2026 execution should be judged by AssuredPartners integration, organic growth, margins, debt, reported earnings trends, and cash conversion. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 20.66% to $13.942 billion and net income to common was $1.494 billion. In Q2 2026, total revenues rose about 24% to $4.003 billion with 6% organic growth, but reported diluted EPS fell to $1.25 from $1.40 while adjusted diluted EPS rose to $2.84 from $2.30. | High |
| Valuation | At $249.42, audited math shows about 41.4x TTM EPS, 34.3x TTM free cash flow per share, 2.70x book value, and a 1.12% dividend yield, with a forward PE near 17.7x on adjusted earnings. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | StockAnalysis listed price above the 50-day moving average of $230.51 and the 200-day moving average of $235.03, with a 14-day RSI near 52.37, about 20% below the $313.55 52-week high. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include integration missteps, acquisition goodwill and amortization, leverage, producer turnover, insurance pricing cycles, cyber or compliance failures, fiduciary income sensitivity, and multiple compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for reported and cross-checked data, medium for forecast ranges and trading timing. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. AJG is a strong business, but this page frames valuation and monitoring rules rather than a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
AJG AI stock forecast
The AJG AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $249.42 quote and TTM reported EPS of $6.03. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $154, a base area near $234, and a bullish area near $321 before dividends. Because reported EPS includes acquisition and amortization effects, investors should compare these ranges with adjusted EPS, free cash flow, and debt trends before treating them as valuation anchors.
$305 to $330
More likely if organic growth stays near or above 6%, AssuredPartners integration delivers synergies without margin leakage, cash flow improves, leverage trends lower, and the market continues to value AJG as a premium brokerage compounder.
$225 to $245
More likely if reported EPS compounds only modestly while amortization and integration costs stay elevated, margins hold, acquisitions contribute but do not reaccelerate the multiple, and investors value AJG near a 30x reported earnings framework.
$145 to $165
More likely if organic growth slows, integration costs rise, producer turnover increases, debt limits capital returns, fiduciary income weakens, reported earnings disappoint, or investors compress the multiple assigned to insurance brokerage earnings.
AJG AI technical analysis
AJG AI technical analysis is mixed as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The last closing quote used for this page is $249.42 on July 31, 2026. StockAnalysis listed the 14-day RSI at 52.37, the 50-day moving average at $230.51, the 200-day moving average at $235.03, and a 52-week range of $190.75 to $313.55. The stock is about 20% below its 52-week high and down about 12.7% over the past 52 weeks, so the medium-term trend is constructive only while price holds above the moving averages.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $249.42 | Closing quote used for valuation and market-cap verification, last printed on July 31, 2026. |
| 50-day moving average | $230.51 | StockAnalysis listed this level on August 2, 2026. Price holding above it supports the medium-term trend framework. |
| 200-day moving average | $235.03 | A decisive break below the 200-day average would weaken the longer-term trend framework. |
| Momentum | RSI 52.37 | StockAnalysis listed a neutral 14-day RSI near 52, so the rebound from the lows is not overbought but also lacks strong upside momentum. |
| Volume | 1.74 million versus 1.42 million average | StockAnalysis reported July 31 volume above its 20-day average, so the post-earnings move included active participation. |
| Near-term support zone | $240.98 to $242.28 | StockAnalysis and ChartMill data place the recent one-month low near $240.98 with the July 31 day low at $242.28, making this the immediate area to monitor. |
| Moving-average support zone | $230.51 to $235.03 | The 50-day and 200-day moving averages cluster here, giving a stronger medium-term support zone if the near-term level fails. |
| Resistance | $255.73 to $269.99 | StockAnalysis listed a $255.73 July 31 day high and ChartMill data place the one-month high near $269.99, both above the current quote. |
| 52-week high | $313.55 | StockAnalysis listed this as the 52-week high reference at the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Invalidation | Close below $235.03 | A decisive close below the 200-day moving average would reduce confidence in the current medium-term trend framework. |
AJG AI trading strategy
The AJG AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for monitoring a high-quality insurance brokerage and risk management compounder after a post-earnings pullback. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh prices, moving averages, earnings updates, debt metrics, acquisition integration news, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch whether AJG can hold above the $235.03 200-day moving average and the $230.51 50-day moving average while keeping the near-term $240.98 to $242.28 support zone intact. Confirmation should include volume near recent averages, stable Q3 commentary, no negative AssuredPartners integration update, and continued organic revenue growth.
A failed rebound followed by a close below the 200-day moving average should reduce confidence in the medium-term trend setup.
If AJG pulls back toward the $230 to $235 moving-average support zone without an EPS, cash flow, or integration warning, compare the new price with P/E, forward PE, FCF yield, debt, acquisition costs, dividend coverage, and peer broker multiples.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because quality brokers can still reprice quickly when reported earnings, organic growth, or acquisition execution disappoint.
Track organic revenue growth, adjusted EBITDAC margin, reported versus adjusted EPS, free cash flow, debt reduction, producer retention, acquisition pipeline, AssuredPartners integration, fiduciary income, claims activity, and Brokerage versus Risk Management mix.
Reduce confidence if reported EPS growth stays negative while organic revenue, margins, free cash flow, or leverage trends weaken, or if acquisition accounting drives most of the earnings increase.
Investment research summary
Gallagher helps organizations buy, structure, and manage insurance, risk, benefits, reinsurance, and claims workflows. Clients pay because coverage placement, compliance, renewal negotiation, claims administration, and risk analytics are recurring, high-stakes, relationship-heavy tasks.
AJGs moat comes from client relationships, producer networks, acquisition scale, carrier access, regulatory process knowledge, data, analytics, and embedded renewal workflows. Switching costs are meaningful, but people and trust matter more than hard technology lock-in.
The thesis fails if acquisitions destroy value, AssuredPartners integration creates culture or margin drag, debt and goodwill crowd out flexibility, key producers leave, cyber or compliance failures damage trust, reported earnings keep falling, or a softer insurance pricing cycle compresses growth and multiples.
J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr. and the leadership team should be judged by organic growth, acquisition discipline, cash conversion, debt management, producer retention, and whether integration restores reported earnings growth while creating durable client and carrier value rather than only reported scale.
Gallagher benefits from more complex global risk, cyber exposure, litigation, climate and catastrophe risk, healthcare cost pressure, workforce benefits complexity, and demand for analytics. These trends are durable, but the brokerage industry remains competitive and talent-driven.
At roughly 41.4x TTM reported EPS and 34.3x TTM free cash flow per share, AJG needs strong execution. Margin of safety improves if the stock pulls back while organic growth, cash flow conversion, integration progress, and balance sheet repair remain intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| AJG price and market capitalization | $249.42 price and $63.94 billion market cap, verified as $249.42 x 256.341 million common shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | $4.003 billion total revenues (up about 24%), $324 million net earnings attributable to controlling interests, $1.25 reported diluted EPS, $2.84 adjusted diluted EPS, and 6% combined organic growth | Arthur J. Gallagher Q2 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 EBITDAC | $946 million reported EBITDAC and $1,199 million EBITDAC as adjusted, with an adjusted EBITDAC margin of 33.3% | Arthur J. Gallagher Q2 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Six months ended June 30, 2026 | $8.671 billion revenues before reimbursements, $1,146 million net earnings attributable to controlling interests, $4.41 reported diluted EPS, and $7.31 adjusted diluted EPS | Arthur J. Gallagher Q2 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $13.942 billion, cross-checked between Macrotrends and StockAnalysis | StockAnalysis income statement and Macrotrends cross-check | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income to common | $1.494 billion, cross-checked between Macrotrends and StockAnalysis | StockAnalysis income statement and Macrotrends cross-check | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | About $15.755 billion for the twelve months ended June 30, 2026, cross-checked between StockAnalysis and Macrotrends | StockAnalysis income statement and Macrotrends cross-check | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | About $2.015 billion operating cash flow, $153 million capital expenditures, and about $1.862 billion free cash flow through March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis cash flow statement | August 2, 2026 |
| Balance sheet at June 30, 2026 | $1.386 billion cash and cash equivalents, $37.183 billion fiduciary assets, $1.520 billion current corporate borrowings, $11.955 billion noncurrent corporate borrowings, and $23.026 billion goodwill | Arthur J. Gallagher Q2 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Dividend | $0.70 quarterly dividend declared for second quarter 2026 and a regular third quarter dividend announced July 29, 2026, or $2.80 annualized if maintained | Arthur J. Gallagher Q2 2026 results release and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Share count | 256.341 million common shares outstanding at June 30, 2026 and 258.685 million diluted weighted-average shares for Q2 2026 | Arthur J. Gallagher Q2 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation snapshot | PE ratio 41.39, forward PE 17.67, P/FCF ratio 34.34, PB ratio 2.70, dividend yield 1.12%, and 52-week range $190.75 to $313.55 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | RSI 52.37, 50-day moving average $230.51, 200-day moving average $235.03, and 52-week price change of about -12.7% | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Consensus rating Buy from 22 analysts with an average 12-month price target of $287.22, ranging from $250 to $388 | StockAnalysis forecast | July 31, 2026 |
This AJG AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell securities, and not a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 2, 2026 and may be wrong if fundamentals, organic growth, margins, leverage, integration execution, reported earnings, valuation multiples, market conditions, or source data change.
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