BOK Financial Corporation research snapshot
BOKF AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads BOK Financial as a well-managed, diversified regional financial services franchise with commercial banking, specialized energy and healthcare lending, wealth management, transaction processing, mortgage, and an electronic funds network. The stock closed at $141.29 on July 31, 2026, with market capitalization near $8.59 billion, re-verified during this full refresh as $141.29 times 60.77 million shares outstanding, matching the StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics pages and the 60,766,867 shares outstanding reported in the Q2 2026 earnings release as of June 30, 2026. The Q2 2026 report, released July 20, 2026 and discussed on the July 21 call, beat expectations with GAAP net income of $176.5 million, or $2.92 per diluted share, and adjusted earnings of $156.5 million, or $2.59 per share, versus the $2.47 consensus, driven by record quarterly loan production of $896 million, total loan growth of 11.5% year over year, record fiduciary and asset management revenue, stable credit, and a CET1 ratio of 12.89%. Management raised full-year 2026 guidance to loan growth above 10% with revenue at the upper portion of the mid-single-digit range. Offsetting the momentum is a premium valuation near 13.32x trailing earnings and 1.41x book value that led Raymond James to downgrade the stock to Market Perform in early July 2026, plus lower Q2 trading and mortgage fee income and the risk that deposit costs, energy or commercial real estate credit, and rate policy change. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$141.29
Market cap
$8.59 billion
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
High-quality regional financial services franchise with record Q2 2026 loan production and raised full-year guidance, but premium valuation and fee-income volatility limit near-term upside
Trend status
Bullish, with price above the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages and near a 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | BOK Financial combines commercial banking, consumer banking, wealth management, investment banking, trading, mortgage, transaction cards, treasury services, and an electronic funds network, with TTM revenue near $2.28 billion and $129.3 billion in assets under management or administration as of June 30, 2026. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from long-standing regional relationships, specialized energy and healthcare underwriting, regulated banking licenses, low-cost deposit funding, payment and transaction processing, wealth relationships, and a multi-state footprint in fast-growing Texas, Arizona, Colorado, and Oklahoma markets. | Medium-high |
| Management | Stacy Kymes has led BOKF since January 2022 after long internal tenure across credit, treasury, controller, audit, and COO roles. Q2 2026 delivered record quarterly loan production of $896 million, total loan growth of 11.5% year over year, record fiduciary and asset management revenue, and the hiring of more than 25 revenue producers including over 20 in Texas. | High |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 net income rose to $176.5 million, or $2.92 diluted EPS, from $155.8 million, or $2.58, a quarter earlier; adjusted EPS was $2.59 versus the $2.47 consensus. Loans grew 3.4% sequentially to $27.08 billion, deposits rose $1.2 billion to $39.86 billion, net interest margin held at 2.91%, net charge-offs were 0.01% annualized, and full-year 2026 loan growth guidance was raised to above 10%. | High |
| Valuation | At $141.29, financial_rigor.py calculates about 13.33x TTM EPS, 1.41x book value, 10.59% implied ROE on book value per share, 26.91x free cash flow, and a 1.78% dividend yield, a premium to regional-bank peers that Raymond James flagged when it downgraded the stock in July 2026. | High |
| Technical trend | BOKF closed at $141.29 on July 31, 2026, above its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages near $141.41, $140.26, $135.52, $132.89, and $126.40, with 14-day RSI near 56.57 and 14-day ADX near 23.21, just below the 52-week high near $143.65. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Main risks are deposit repricing and deposit cost pressure, net interest margin compression, energy and healthcare concentration, commercial real estate losses, lower trading and mortgage fee income, rate shocks, fee normalization, controlled-company governance with George Kaiser owning about 63.62% of stock, regulatory capital changes, and valuation after a strong rally. | High |
| AI confidence | High for reported facts and cross-checked math that matched across the Q2 2026 earnings release, the Q2 2026 8-K, the earnings call transcript, StockAnalysis.com, and Barchart. Medium for the forecast because BOKF can rerate when credit quality, deposit flows, loan growth, rates, or capital expectations change. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. BOKF has a durable franchise, record growth, and strong recent credit metrics, but the current price requires continued earnings growth, stable deposits, resilient fees, and no material specialist-sector credit shock. | Medium |
BOKF AI stock forecast
The BOKF AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $141.29 and $10.60 TTM EPS. A three-year financial_rigor.py framework using 10%, 6%, and negative 8% annual EPS growth with 16x, 14x, and 10x terminal multiples produced mechanical values near $225.70, $176.70, and $82.50. These are sensitivity ranges, not price promises, and they exclude dividends, credit losses outside the assumptions, and changes in market multiples. The $10.60 TTM EPS includes a one-time $30.9 million pre-tax Visa B share exchange gain, so run-rate earnings power is lower than the headline number.
$210 to $235
More likely if loans keep growing near double digits, deposit costs stabilize, net interest margin expands in the back half of 2026 as management expects, fee businesses recover, credit losses stay low, capital supports opportunistic buybacks, and investors award about 16x earnings.
$165 to $185
More likely if EPS compounds at a mid single-digit rate, loan growth moderates after the record second quarter, deposits remain adequate, fee revenue normalizes without collapsing, credit costs stay manageable, and the market applies about 14x earnings.
$75 to $90
More likely if deposit competition compresses spreads, energy or senior housing and healthcare losses rise, mortgage finance or trading fee income weakens, rates or regulation hurt capital returns, EPS falls for several years, and investors reprice BOKF near 10x earnings.
BOKF AI technical analysis
BOKF AI technical analysis was bullish but just below its 52-week high as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $141.29 on July 31, 2026, above its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages near $141.41, $140.26, $135.52, $132.89, and $126.40, with 14-day RSI near 56.57 and 14-day ADX near 23.21. StockAnalysis and Barchart both reported the 50-day and 200-day averages at $135.52 and $126.40, and both reported the 52-week range near $97.40 to $143.65, so the levels below use zones rather than false precision.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $141.29 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 60.77 million shares outstanding. |
| 5-day moving average | $141.41 | Barchart reported the 5-day moving average near $141.41, essentially flat to the current price, meaning near-term momentum is balanced. |
| 20-day moving average | $140.26 | Barchart reported the 20-day moving average near $140.26, just below price and acting as the first short-term support zone. |
| 50-day moving average | $135.52 | StockAnalysis and Barchart both reported the 50-day moving average near $135.52 as of July 31, 2026, a natural pullback support zone. |
| 100-day moving average | $132.89 | Barchart reported the 100-day moving average near $132.89, below price and confirming the medium-term uptrend. |
| 200-day moving average | $126.40 | StockAnalysis and Barchart both reported the 200-day moving average near $126.40, the long-term trend support line. |
| Near resistance | $142 to $144 | The 52-week high is near $143.65 per both StockAnalysis and Barchart, making this the first breakout and rejection area. |
| Momentum | RSI near 56.6, ADX near 23.2 | 14-day RSI near 56.57 is positive but not overbought, and 14-day ADX near 23.21 shows a moderate trending move rather than a strong one. |
| Volume | About 275,000 to 279,000 average shares | StockAnalysis reported 20-day average volume near 275,423 shares while Barchart reported near 279,035, useful for checking breakout quality. |
| Volatility | Low, with bank-cycle event risk | Barchart reported 14-day historic volatility near 15.65% and 20-day near 19.97%, and beta is near 0.79, but earnings, credit headlines, rates, deposits, and regulatory news can still create sharp moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $140, then $135 | A sustained close below the 20-day moving average near $140.26 would weaken the short-term setup. A break below the 50-day near $135.52 would signal broader trend damage. |
BOKF AI trading strategy
The BOKF AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a diversified regional bank. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live chart data, earnings releases, deposit trends, net interest margin, credit metrics, regulatory capital, and clear invalidation levels.
Watch for BOKF to hold above the 20-day moving average near $140 and then clear the $142 to $144 resistance band near the 52-week high of $143.65 on above-average volume, with confirmation from stable bank-sector breadth, deposits, and credit headlines.
A failed breakout that closes back below the 20-day moving average near $140.26 should invalidate the near-term trend setup.
If BOKF pulls back toward the $135 to $140 area without deterioration in deposits, net interest margin, CET1 capital, nonperforming assets, or specialist-sector guidance, compare price weakness with the long-term earnings thesis.
Do not treat a low recent charge-off rate as a permanent floor. Bank stocks can fall quickly when credit confidence changes.
Track loan growth, deposit mix, deposit pricing, net interest margin, energy and healthcare delinquencies, commercial real estate exposure, mortgage finance buildout, nonperforming assets, net charge-offs, CET1 ratio, fee revenue, efficiency, buybacks, dividends, and CEO execution.
Reduce confidence if deposits leave or reprice quickly, net interest margin keeps falling, provisions rise faster than revenue, specialist-sector losses spread, capital falls, or EPS slows while the stock remains expensive.
Investment research summary
BOK Financial helps businesses, institutions, professionals, and households borrow, hold deposits, move money, manage risk, invest, process transactions, and access specialized financial expertise across the Midwest and Southwest, with $129.3 billion in assets under management or administration.
The moat is built from long client relationships, regional deposit funding, specialized energy and healthcare teams, payment and transaction processing, wealth management relationships, regulated licenses, and scale across multiple banking and fee businesses.
The thesis fails if deposit competition compresses spreads, energy or senior housing and healthcare borrowers weaken, commercial real estate losses rise, fee income normalizes sharply, regulatory capital limits returns, the mortgage finance buildout stalls, or the premium valuation leaves no room for ordinary bank-cycle mistakes.
Stacy Kymes has spent decades inside BOK Financial and became CEO in January 2022 after leading revenue-generating divisions as COO. Q2 2026 produced record quarterly loan production of $896 million, loan growth of 11.5% year over year, record fiduciary and asset management revenue, and the hiring of more than 25 revenue producers. The proxy also shows a controlled-company structure because George Kaiser beneficially owns about 63.62% of common stock.
BOKF benefits from long-running demand for commercial finance, payments, wealth management, electronic funds transfer, and specialized sector banking, and from population and business growth in Texas, Arizona, Colorado, and Oklahoma. The opportunity is not a civilization-level technology shift, so long-term results still depend on regional growth, credit discipline, deposits, rates, and regulation.
At about 13.33x TTM EPS and 1.41x book value, BOKF is priced as a healthy, growing bank rather than a distressed lender. The margin of safety improves if the stock pulls back while deposits, capital, credit quality, and fee income remain sound.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $141.29 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $8.59 billion, computed as $141.29 x 60.77 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis.com market cap and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 60,766,867 shares as of June 30, 2026, per the Q2 2026 earnings release; about 60.77 million on StockAnalysis.com | BOKF Q2 2026 earnings release and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 GAAP net income and EPS | $176.5 million, or $2.92 per diluted share, up from $155.8 million, or $2.58, in Q1 2026 | BOKF Q2 2026 earnings release and 8-K | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted EPS | $156.5 million, or $2.59 per diluted share, excluding the net gain on the Visa B share exchange and the loss from repositioning the available-for-sale securities portfolio, versus the $2.47 consensus | BOKF Q2 2026 earnings release and TheFly consensus report | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net interest income and margin | Net interest income of $351.8 million, up $9.3 million, and net interest margin of 2.91%, up 1 basis point from 2.90% | BOKF Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | July 21, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 loans and deposits | Period-end loans of $27.08 billion, up $896 million or 3.4% sequentially and 11.5% year over year; period-end deposits of $39.86 billion, up $1.2 billion; loan to deposit ratio of 68% | BOKF Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 credit quality | Nonperforming assets of $63 million, or 0.23% of loans and repossessed assets; net charge-offs of $500 thousand, or 0.01% annualized; no provision required; combined allowance of $323 million, or 1.19% of loans | BOKF Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 capital | CET1 ratio of 12.89%, Tier 1 ratio of 12.90%, total capital ratio of 14.67%, leverage ratio of 9.81%, and tangible common equity ratio of 9.61% | BOKF Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Book value and tangible book value per share | $100.11 book value per share and $82.42 tangible book value per share as of June 30, 2026 | BOKF Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 fee income | Fees and commissions of $202.0 million, down $7.8 million sequentially, with lower trading and mortgage banking revenue partially offset by record fiduciary and asset management revenue of $71.0 million | BOKF Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | July 21, 2026 |
| AUMA | $129.3 billion in assets under management or administration at June 30, 2026, up $5.7 billion in the quarter and $11.4 billion, or nearly 10%, year over year | BOKF Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | July 21, 2026 |
| Visa B share exchange and AFS repositioning | Pre-tax gain of $30.9 million on the exchange of Visa Class B shares and a $4.6 million pre-tax loss from selling about $268 million of lower-yielding available-for-sale securities to reinvest at higher yields | BOKF Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | July 21, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance update | Full-year 2026 loan growth raised to above 10%, total revenue at the upper portion of the mid-single-digit range, net interest income in the upper half of $1.42 billion to $1.45 billion, fee income in the lower half of $820 million to $845 million, expenses at the lower end of low single-digit growth, and provision below $20 million | BOKF Q2 2026 earnings call | July 21, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | FY2025 revenue of $2.17 billion, up about 6.9%, and net income of $577.99 million, up about 10.4%, matching the 2025 earnings release and StockAnalysis.com | StockAnalysis.com financials and BOKF 2025 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM EPS and valuation | TTM EPS of $10.60, with about 13.33x trailing PE, 13.75x forward PE, 1.41x book value, 1.71x tangible book value, and 26.93x trailing free cash flow, per financial_rigor.py cross-check | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | Annual dividend of $2.52 per share, or about 1.78% yield, with 12 years of dividend growth and a payout ratio near 23.76% | StockAnalysis.com statistics and dividends | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold rating from 10 analysts with an average price target of $149.50, low of $138, high of $170, and median of $148 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 24, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 1 Strong Buy, 0 Buy, 9 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell out of 10 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 24, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Keefe Bruyette $143 to $146 on July 24, Citi $141 to $146 on July 23, RBC Capital $147 to $149 on July 22, Barclays $145 to $150 on July 22, D.A. Davidson held at $150 on July 22, and Raymond James downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform in early July citing premium valuation | StockAnalysis.com forecast and TheFly analyst news | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 and FY2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate of $2.28 billion with adjusted EPS of $10.29, and FY2027 revenue of $2.42 billion with adjusted EPS of $10.67, with 3-year EPS growth forecast near 8.03% | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 24, 2026 |
| Short interest | 2.25 million shares short, or 3.70% of shares outstanding and 12.07% of float, with about 8.21 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 3, 2026 |
| Controlling shareholder | Insiders own about 63.62% of shares, consistent with George Kaiser control | StockAnalysis.com statistics and BOKF 2026 proxy statement | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $141.41, 20-day SMA near $140.26, 50-day SMA near $135.52, 100-day SMA near $132.89, 200-day SMA near $126.40, 14-day RSI near 56.57, 14-day ADX near 23.21, 14-day historic volatility near 15.65%, 52-week range near $97.40 to $143.65 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
This BOKF AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial planning, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data and simplified assumptions as of the stated cutoff date, and they may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, credit developments, deposit moves, rate changes, or market moves.
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