BOK Financial Corporation research snapshot
BOKF AI stock analysis currently reads BOK Financial as a well-managed regional financial services franchise with commercial banking, energy and healthcare expertise, wealth management, transaction processing, mortgage, and fee income. At the July 10, 2026 data cutoff, BOKF closed near $137.89 with market capitalization near $8.37 billion. The AI analysis score is positive for business quality, capital, loan growth, credit quality, and diversified revenue, but the BOKF AI stock forecast remains scenario-based because lower deposit spreads, energy and commercial real estate exposure, interest rates, and a premium valuation can change the outcome. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$137.89
Market cap
$8.37 billion
AI score
71 / 100
Rating
High-quality diversified regional bank with strong fee businesses and credit metrics, but premium valuation and deposit margin pressure limit near-term upside
Trend status
Bullish but extended, with price above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and RSI near 62.77
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 10, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | BOK Financial combines commercial banking, consumer banking, wealth management, investment banking, trading, mortgage, transaction cards, treasury services, and an electronic funds network. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from long-standing regional relationships, specialized energy and healthcare underwriting, regulated banking licenses, deposit funding, transaction processing, wealth relationships, and a multi-state operating footprint. | Medium-high |
| Management | Stacy Kymes has led BOKF since January 2022 after serving as COO and holding credit, treasury, controller, and audit roles. The long internal tenure supports institutional knowledge, while the test is disciplined growth through the next credit cycle. | High |
| Financial trend | FY2025 net income rose 10.4% to about $578.0 million and revenue before loan losses was about $2.17 billion. Q1 2026 net income was $155.8 million, while loans grew 2.1% from year-end and net charge-offs stayed at 0.03% annualized. | High |
| Valuation | At $137.89, financial_rigor.py calculates about 13.96x TTM EPS, 1.40x book value, 10.05% implied ROE on book value per share, 26.26x FCF, and a 1.83% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | BOKF traded above the 50-day average near $132.05 and the 200-day average near $123.57, with RSI near 62.77. The price was also close to the reported 52-week high near $142.00, so momentum was constructive but not unextended. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Main risks are deposit repricing, net interest margin compression, energy and healthcare concentration, commercial real estate losses, rate shocks, fee normalization, controlled-company governance, regulatory capital changes, and valuation after a strong rally. | High |
| AI confidence | High for reported facts and calculations. Medium for the forecast because BOKF can rerate when credit quality, deposit flows, loan growth, rates, or capital expectations change. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. BOKF has a durable franchise and strong recent credit metrics, but the current price requires continued earnings growth, stable deposits, resilient fees, and no material specialist-sector credit shock. | Medium |
BOKF AI stock forecast
The BOKF AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $137.89 reference price and $9.88 TTM EPS. A three-year financial_rigor.py framework using 10%, 6%, and negative 8% annual EPS growth with 16x, 14x, and 10x terminal multiples produced mechanical values near $210.40, $164.70, and $76.90. These are sensitivity ranges, not price promises, and they exclude dividends, credit losses outside the assumptions, and changes in market multiples.
$195 to $215
More likely if loans keep growing near double digits, deposit costs stabilize, net interest margin recovers, fee businesses remain resilient, credit losses stay low, capital supports opportunistic buybacks, and investors award about 16x earnings.
$155 to $170
More likely if EPS grows at a mid single-digit rate, loan growth moderates, deposits remain adequate, fee revenue normalizes without collapsing, credit costs stay manageable, and the market applies about 14x earnings.
$72 to $82
More likely if deposit competition compresses spreads, energy or commercial real estate losses rise, fee revenue weakens, rates or regulation hurt capital returns, EPS falls for several years, and investors reprice BOKF near 10x earnings.
BOKF AI technical analysis
BOKF AI technical analysis was constructive as of the July 10, 2026 data cutoff, but the stock was close to its 52-week high. StockAnalysis showed a 50-day moving average near $132.05, a 200-day moving average near $123.57, RSI near 62.77, and 20-day average volume near 272,241 shares in its July 6 snapshot. MarketBeat reported a 52-week range of $97.40 to $142.00. Vendor timing differs, so the levels below use zones rather than false precision.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $137.89 | Financial Content closing quote snapshot for July 10, 2026, the latest completed trading session before the July 12 research date. |
| Near support | $130 to $133 | The StockAnalysis 50-day moving average was $132.05 in its July 6 snapshot, making this the first trend support zone to watch. |
| Secondary support | $122 to $125 | The StockAnalysis 200-day moving average was $123.57, making this the broader trend support zone. |
| Near resistance | $140 to $142 | MarketBeat listed a 52-week high near $142.00, making this the first breakout and rejection area. |
| 50-day moving average | $132.05 StockAnalysis snapshot | Price was above the intermediate moving average, supporting a positive intermediate trend. |
| 200-day moving average | $123.57 StockAnalysis snapshot | Price was above the long-term moving average, supporting a constructive primary trend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 62.77 | Momentum was positive, but the stock was close to the 52-week high and therefore vulnerable to breakout failure or profit taking. |
| Volume | About 257,000 to 272,000 average shares | MarketBeat reported average volume near 257,307 shares, while StockAnalysis showed 20-day average volume near 272,241 shares. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.79, with bank-cycle event risk | The quoted beta was below the broad market average, but earnings, credit headlines, rates, deposits, and regulatory news can still create sharp moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $130, then $122 | A sustained close below the 50-day zone would weaken the near-term setup. A break below the 200-day zone would signal broader trend damage. |
BOKF AI trading strategy
The BOKF AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a diversified regional bank. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live chart data, earnings releases, deposit trends, net interest margin, credit metrics, regulatory capital, and clear invalidation levels.
Watch for BOKF to hold the $130 to $133 support zone and then clear the $140 to $142 resistance band on above-average volume, with confirmation from stable bank-sector breadth, deposits, and credit headlines.
A failed breakout that closes back below the 50-day moving average zone should invalidate the near-term trend setup.
If BOKF pulls back toward $130 or the $122 to $125 area without deterioration in deposits, net interest margin, CET1 capital, nonperforming assets, or specialist-sector guidance, compare price weakness with the long-term earnings thesis.
Do not treat a low recent charge-off rate as a permanent floor. Bank stocks can fall quickly when credit confidence changes.
Track loan growth, deposit mix, deposit pricing, net interest margin, energy and healthcare delinquencies, commercial real estate exposure, nonperforming assets, net charge-offs, CET1 ratio, fee revenue, efficiency, buybacks, dividends, and CEO execution.
Reduce confidence if deposits leave or reprice quickly, net interest margin keeps falling, provisions rise faster than revenue, specialist-sector losses spread, capital falls, or EPS slows while the stock remains expensive.
Investment research summary
BOK Financial helps businesses, institutions, professionals, and households borrow, hold deposits, move money, manage risk, invest, process transactions, and access specialized financial expertise across the Midwest and Southwest.
The moat is built from long client relationships, regional deposit funding, specialized energy and healthcare teams, payment and transaction processing, wealth management relationships, regulated licenses, and scale across multiple banking and fee businesses.
The thesis fails if deposit competition compresses spreads, energy or healthcare borrowers weaken, commercial real estate losses rise, fee income normalizes sharply, regulatory capital limits returns, or the premium valuation leaves no room for ordinary bank-cycle mistakes.
Stacy Kymes has spent decades inside BOK Financial and became CEO in January 2022 after leading revenue-generating divisions as COO. The proxy also shows a controlled-company structure because George Kaiser beneficially owns about 62.50% of common stock, aligning long-term ownership with a meaningful governance constraint.
BOKF benefits from long-running demand for commercial finance, payments, wealth management, electronic funds transfer, and specialized sector banking. The opportunity is not a civilization-level technology shift, so long-term results still depend on regional growth, credit discipline, deposits, rates, and regulation.
At about 13.96x TTM EPS and 1.40x book value, BOKF is priced as a healthy bank with continued growth rather than a distressed lender. The margin of safety improves if the stock pulls back while deposits, capital, credit quality, and fee income remain sound.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $137.89 | Financial Content BOKF closing quote | July 10, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $8.37 billion | StockAnalysis BOKF market cap and Nasdaq Data Link | July 9, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | About 60.70 to 60.76 million | BOKF 2025 10-K and StockAnalysis statistics | July 10, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue before loan losses | $2.17 billion | BOKF 2025 earnings release and StockAnalysis financials | July 10, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $577.99 million | BOKF 2025 earnings release and StockAnalysis financials | July 10, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net income and diluted EPS | $155.8 million and $2.58 | BOKF Q1 2026 earnings release filed with the SEC | July 10, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net interest margin | 2.90%, down from 2.98% in Q4 2025 | BOKF Q1 2026 earnings release | July 10, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 loans and deposits | $26.19 billion loans and $38.68 billion deposits | BOKF Q1 2026 earnings release | July 10, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 credit quality | 0.23% nonperforming assets and 0.03% annualized net charge-offs | BOKF Q1 2026 earnings release | July 10, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 capital | 12.61% CET1 ratio and 9.29% tangible common equity ratio | BOKF Q1 2026 earnings release | July 10, 2026 |
| TTM EPS and book value per share | $9.88 EPS and $98.31 book value per share | StockAnalysis BOKF statistics | July 6, 2026 |
| 50-day and 200-day moving averages | $132.05 and $123.57 | StockAnalysis BOKF statistics | July 6, 2026 |
| 52-week range and volume | $97.40 to $142.00 and about 257,307 average shares | MarketBeat BOKF quote and key stats | July 6, 2026 |
| CEO background | Stacy Kymes became CEO on January 1, 2022 after serving as COO | BOKF 2026 proxy statement and company biography | July 10, 2026 |
| Controlling shareholder | George Kaiser beneficial ownership about 62.50% | BOKF 2026 proxy statement | July 10, 2026 |
This BOKF AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial planning, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data and simplified assumptions as of the stated cutoff date, and they may be wrong.
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