First Citizens BancShares, Inc. research snapshot
FCNCA AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads First Citizens BancShares as a profitable U.S. banking franchise whose Q2 2026 report, released July 23, 2026, delivered strong sequential growth: net income available to common stockholders rose to $640 million, or $55.52 per common share, from $508 million, or $42.63, in the linked quarter, and adjusted net income available to common stockholders reached $659 million, or $57.09 per share, driving an adjusted ROE of 12.94% and adjusted ROA of 1.18%. The stock closed at $2,186.65 on July 31, 2026, with a market capitalization near $24.91 billion, re-verified during this full refresh as $2,186.65 times 11.39 million shares with a 0.02% deviation across StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics pages. Credit stayed resilient with a benefit for credit losses of $10 million against a $72 million provision in the linked quarter, net charge-offs of $108 million or 0.29% of average loans, nonaccrual loans steady at 0.96% of loans, and a CET1 ratio of 10.77%. The company returned $600 million through share repurchases in the quarter, prepaid another $2.5 billion of the FDIC Purchase Money Note, and expects its 138-branch BMO Bank acquisition, adding roughly $5.3 billion in deposits and $700 million in loans, to close in the third quarter of 2026. Offsetting these strengths are a core net interest margin that stayed flat at 3.01% excluding purchase accounting accretion, a cost of average total deposits that rose to 2.07%, an adjusted efficiency ratio guided to the low 60% range for 2026, intense competition for deposits with Direct Bank spot rates above 4%, and a consensus analyst rating of Hold with an average 12-month target of $2,333. The FCNCA AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a promised price, and this page is for informational use only, not investment advice.
Current price
$2,186.65
Market cap
$24.91 billion
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
Profitable, well-capitalized regional-bank franchise with improving returns, resilient credit, and steady buybacks, offset by a flat core margin, fierce deposit competition, and credit-cycle exposure
Trend status
Constructive, with price above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages and RSI near 57.76
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | First Citizens earns net interest income and fees from commercial banking, deposits, treasury services, lending, wealth, payments, tech and healthcare banking, Global Fund Banking, and specialty finance relationships, with Q2 2026 net interest income of $1.66 billion and noninterest income of $776 million. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Deposit relationships, treasury-service integration, regulatory licenses, underwriting data, the Silicon Valley Bank commercial franchise, local and specialty expertise, and acquisition execution create switching friction, though banking remains price competitive. | Medium |
| Management | Frank B. Holding, Jr. leads a family-influenced institution with a long acquisition history. The core test is capital allocation that preserves credit and funding discipline after deals, with the BMO branch acquisition scheduled for the third quarter of 2026. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 net income available to common stockholders was $640 million, or $55.52 per share, up from $508 million, or $42.63, in Q1 2026, with adjusted net income available to common of $659 million, or $57.09 per share, adjusted ROE of 12.94%, and adjusted ROA of 1.18%. | High |
| Valuation | At $2,186.65, financial_rigor.py calculates about 11.73x TTM EPS, 1.24x book value, 18.14x free cash flow, and a 0.38% dividend yield, in line with the StockAnalysis.com statistics page. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 31, 2026 snapshot was constructive: price was above the 20-day average near $2,119.80, the 50-day near $2,080.76, the 100-day near $2,003.00, and the 200-day near $1,991.06, with 14-day RSI near 57.76 and 14-day ADX near 18.66. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are commercial and CRE credit losses, deposit and wholesale-funding costs, rate-driven NIM pressure, purchase-accounting runoff, the $28.42 billion FDIC Purchase Money Note, regulatory capital and Basel rules, and acquisition integration. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Reported facts are well supported and cross-checked. Return confidence is lower because a bank equity can reprice sharply when credit, rates, liquidity, or regulatory expectations change. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The franchise has credible strengths and improving near-term returns, but the price needs ongoing core-earnings resilience and sound credit outcomes rather than reliance on the past deal narrative. | Medium |
FCNCA AI stock forecast
The FCNCA AI stock forecast is scenario-based because bank earnings depend on credit, funding, rates, and capital allocation. Using the $2,186.65 price reference and $186.44 TTM EPS, the audited three-year model produces about $1,560 in a bear case, $2,597 in a base case, and $3,139 in a bullish case before dividends, using EPS growth of about 1.5%, 6.6%, and 9% with exit multiples of about 8x, 11.5x, and 13x. These mechanical outputs are not price predictions. They show how materially the result changes with earnings growth and the multiple investors assign to a regional bank, and they sit against a consensus analyst 12-month target of about $2,333.
$2,950 to $3,300 before dividends
More likely if core earnings compound near high single digits, the Fed hike path lifts asset yields faster than deposit costs, credit stays resilient, the BMO branch acquisition adds deposits and loans without integration strain, the Purchase Money Note keeps declining, and investors pay about 13x earnings.
$2,450 to $2,750 before dividends
More likely if earnings grow near the consensus forecast of about 6.6%, net interest income normalizes gradually, loan and deposit trends remain steady, buybacks continue within capital limits, and the market applies about 11.5x earnings, near the current 11.73x trailing multiple.
$1,450 to $1,700 before dividends
More likely if credit costs rise, commercial real estate weakens, deposits become more expensive and erode the margin, rates compress asset yields, capital requirements tighten under Basel rules, or investors apply about 8x earnings.
FCNCA AI technical analysis
FCNCA AI technical analysis was constructive at the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $2,186.65 on July 31, 2026, above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 57.76 and 14-day ADX near 18.66. The 52-week high of $2,237.82 sits overhead as the next resistance. FCNCA is a relatively low-volume, high-priced share, so levels are zones rather than precise trade triggers.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $2,186.65 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 11.39 million shares outstanding. |
| Near support | $2,100 to $2,120 | Barchart placed the 20-day moving average near $2,119.80 as of July 31, 2026, a natural first pullback support zone. |
| Next support | $2,000 to $2,080 | The 50-day moving average was near $2,080.76 and the 100-day near $2,003.00 on July 31, 2026, forming a support cluster. |
| Deeper support | $1,985 to $1,995 | The 200-day moving average was near $1,991.06, marking the more meaningful medium-term trend test. |
| Near resistance | $2,200 to $2,240 | The immediate upside is capped by the July 31 day high near $2,198.94 and the 52-week high of $2,237.82. |
| Moving averages | 20-day $2,119.80; 50-day $2,080.76; 100-day $2,003.00; 200-day $1,991.06 | Price above all four averages was constructive, with the 20-day and 50-day levels rising below the stock. |
| Momentum | RSI near 57.76, ADX near 18.66 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported 14-day RSI near 57.76, neither deeply oversold nor overbought; 14-day ADX near 18.66 signaled a moderate rather than strongly trending move. |
| Volume | About 85,000 average shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 85,060 shares and StockAnalysis.com near 85,117, so low average volume can make breakouts and stops less reliable. |
| Volatility | Moderate to elevated | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 39.3% and 20-day near 35.3%, with 14-day ATR near $57.34, so position sizing should account for larger swings around reports and macro moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $2,080, then $2,000 | A decisive close below the 50-day moving average near $2,080.76 would weaken the short-term setup. A close below the 100-day and 200-day cluster near $2,000 would challenge the medium-term trend. |
FCNCA AI trading strategy
The FCNCA AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It joins chart zones with bank fundamentals such as net interest income, margin, deposits, credit quality, capital ratios, liquidity, the Purchase Money Note, and share repurchases.
Watch for FCNCA to hold the $2,100 to $2,120 area and reclaim the $2,200 to $2,240 zone toward the 52-week high of $2,237.82 with evidence of stable deposits, controlled credit costs, resilient NIM, and no capital stress in earnings.
A failed breakout followed by a sustained close below $2,100 should reduce trend confidence, especially if credit costs or deposit pricing worsen.
If FCNCA moves toward the $2,000 to $2,080 zone while fundamentals remain intact, compare the lower price with book value, normalized EPS, capital ratios, and the funding outlook rather than treating the decline as automatically attractive.
Avoid averaging down if loan losses, nonperforming assets, deposit outflows, funding costs, or regulatory capital move adversely at the same time.
Track net interest income and margin, deposits by type and cost, loan growth by segment, net charge-offs, nonaccrual loans, allowance coverage, CET1 and other capital ratios, total liquidity, the Purchase Money Note balance, the BMO branch close, and repurchase pace.
Position sizing should reflect FCNCA's high share price, limited daily liquidity, bank leverage, and sensitivity to macro, rate, and credit surprises.
Investment research summary
Customers pay First Citizens for deposits, payments, lending, treasury management, wealth, tech and healthcare banking, Global Fund Banking, rail leasing, and commercial banking services. The bank earns spread income on interest-earning assets funded by deposits and borrowings, plus relationship and transaction fees.
The moat rests on deposit and commercial relationships, treasury-service integration, regulatory licenses, underwriting experience, the Silicon Valley Bank commercial franchise, customer switching friction, specialty capabilities, and a demonstrated ability to acquire and operate complex banking assets. It is useful, not absolute, because deposits and loans remain price competitive.
The thesis fails if purchase accounting accretion fades faster than core earnings grow, commercial credit deteriorates, deposits become more expensive, the $28.42 billion Purchase Money Note strains funding, the BMO branch integration diverts management, Basel capital rules tighten, or a recession exposes underwriting mistakes.
Frank B. Holding, Jr. leads a long-running management team and family-controlled institution. Its acquisition record is a strength only if every transaction preserves underwriting, funding, customer service, and capital discipline after the deal closes, with the BMO branch acquisition set for the third quarter of 2026.
Relationship banking, payments, wealth, and specialty finance remain important parts of the U.S. economy. The offset is a structurally demanding environment of digital competition, deposit mobility, interest-rate uncertainty, regulatory scrutiny, and commercial real estate risk.
At the cited $2,186.65 price, FCNCA traded near 11.73x TTM EPS and 1.24x book value, with a consensus analyst target of about $2,333. Margin of safety improves only if core earnings absorb purchase-accounting runoff and credit remains sound, or if the price falls while deposits, capital, and normalized earnings retain their quality.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| FCNCA price | $2,186.65 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $24.91 billion, computed as $2,186.65 x 11.39 million shares outstanding, 0.02% deviation from the reported market cap | StockAnalysis.com quote and share statistics, and local financial_rigor check | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net income | Net income of $672 million, net income available to common stockholders of $640 million, or $55.52 per common share, up from $508 million, or $42.63, in Q1 2026 | First Citizens Q2 2026 earnings release | July 23, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted results | Adjusted net income of $691 million, adjusted net income available to common stockholders of $659 million, or $57.09 per share, adjusted ROE of 12.94%, and adjusted ROA of 1.18% | First Citizens Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | July 23, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net interest income and margin | Net interest income of $1.66 billion, NIM of 3.10%, and NIM excluding purchase accounting accretion of 3.01%, flat with the linked quarter | First Citizens Q2 2026 earnings release | July 23, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 credit quality | Benefit for credit losses of $10 million, provision for loan and lease losses of $34 million, net charge-offs of $108 million or 0.29% of average loans, nonaccrual loans of $1.45 billion or 0.96% of loans, and allowance for loan and lease losses of $1.48 billion or 0.98% of loans | First Citizens Q2 2026 earnings release | July 23, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 capital and liquidity | CET1 ratio of 10.77%, total risk-based capital ratio of 13.37%, Tier 1 risk-based ratio of 11.73%, Tier 1 leverage ratio of 9.22%, and liquid assets of $59.14 billion at June 30, 2026 | First Citizens Q2 2026 earnings release | July 23, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 balance sheet | Loans and leases of $151.03 billion up 1.6%, deposits of $173.43 billion up 1.5%, borrowings of $32.19 billion down $1.77 billion, and Purchase Money Note down from $35.85 billion at September 30, 2025 to $28.42 billion at June 30, 2026 | First Citizens Q2 2026 earnings release | July 23, 2026 |
| Share repurchases and capital returns | Repurchased 298,907 Class A shares for $600 million in Q2 2026, or 2.80% of Class A shares, with $6.19 billion repurchased since inception of the 2024 Share Repurchase Plan, $1.31 billion remaining under the 2025 plan, and repurchases of about $600 million in Q3 and $300 million in Q4 2026 expected | First Citizens Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | July 23, 2026 |
| Dividend | Quarterly dividend of $2.10 per share on Class A and Class B common stock, annual rate of $8.40 with a 0.38% yield, ex-dividend date August 31, 2026, and 9 years of dividend growth | StockAnalysis.com dividend history and First Citizens dividend declaration | August 2, 2026 |
| BMO Branch Acquisition | Agreement to acquire 138 branches from BMO Bank in the Midwest, Great Plains and West regions, assuming about $5.3 billion in deposits and about $700 million in loans, expected to close during the third quarter of 2026 | First Citizens Q2 2026 earnings release | July 23, 2026 |
| 2026 full-year guidance | Net interest income narrowed to $6.6 billion to $6.75 billion, net charge-offs moved to 30-35 basis points, noninterest income raised to $2.14 billion to $2.22 billion, expenses improved to $5.34 billion to $5.41 billion, loans of $153 billion to $157 billion, deposits of $181 billion to $186 billion, and adjusted efficiency ratio in the low 60% range | First Citizens Q2 2026 earnings call | July 23, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 11.73x trailing EPS, 11.68x forward PE, 1.24x book value, 1.27x tangible book value, 2.67x sales, 18.14x free cash flow, and 0.38% dividend yield | StockAnalysis.com statistics and local financial_rigor check | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM income statement | TTM revenue of $9.33 billion, net income to common stockholders of $2.27 billion, operating income of $3.45 billion, and pretax income of $3.16 billion | StockAnalysis.com statistics and income statement | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | FY2025 revenue of $9.04 billion down 3.14%, net income of $2.15 billion down 20.88%, net income available to common of $2.149 billion, and net interest income of $6.814 billion | StockAnalysis.com financials and First Citizens 2025 Form 10-K | August 2, 2026 |
| Balance sheet totals | Total assets of $236.84 billion, total deposits of $173.43 billion, total liabilities of $214.94 billion, shareholders equity of $21.90 billion, book value per share of $1,767.72, and tangible book value per share of $1,757.28 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | Cash and cash equivalents of $22.65 billion and long-term debt of $32.04 billion as of June 30, 2026; the statistics page reports cash of $23.39 billion and total debt of $33.53 billion under S&P Global classification | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Short interest | 511,825 shares short, 4.49% of shares outstanding, 6.22% of float, and 5.48 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold with an average target of $2,333 across 12 analysts, low $2,100, median $2,317, and high $2,475, about 6.68% above the current price | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 29, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 2 Strong Buy, 0 Buy, 10 Hold, 0 Sell out of 12 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 29, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | J.P. Morgan $2,450, TD Cowen $2,430 Buy, Truist $2,150 to $2,323, Piper Sandler $2,050 to $2,100, Goldman Sachs $2,340, and Barclays $2,376 | StockAnalysis.com forecast, TipRanks and The Fly | July 29, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue of $8.87 billion with adjusted EPS of $189.42, FY2027 revenue of $9.30 billion with adjusted EPS of $197.95, and a 3-year EPS growth forecast of about 6.66% | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | July 29, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day SMA near $2,119.80, 50-day SMA near $2,080.76, 100-day SMA near $2,003.00, 200-day SMA near $1,991.06, 14-day RSI near 57.76, 14-day ADX near 18.66, 14-day historical volatility near 39.3%, and 52-week range of $1,623.76 to $2,237.82 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 2, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell FCNCA. Forecast scenarios use available data and assumptions that may be wrong. Markets, rates, credit conditions, and company results can change quickly, and users should verify current information and consider professional advice before acting.
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