Bullish case
$125 to $135
More likely if EPS grows near 11% annually, credit losses stay contained, net interest income and fee income rise, CET1 remains sound, and investors apply about 18x earnings.
The Bank of Nova Scotia research snapshot
BNS AI Stock Analysis
BNS AI stock analysis currently views The Bank of Nova Scotia as a well-capitalized Canadian bank with Canadian Banking, International Banking, wealth management, and capital-markets operations. At the July 10, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified July 8 quote was $84.91 and reported market capitalization was $104.01 billion. Q2 2026 reported net income was C$2.632 billion and the CET1 ratio was 13.3%. The BNS AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a single target because credit losses, rates, deposit costs, capital requirements, currency, and valuation can change bank returns quickly. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$84.91
Market cap
$104.01 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Large Canadian and Americas-focused bank with improving reported earnings and sound capital, balanced against credit-cycle, funding, and valuation risk
Trend status
Constructive above the dated 50-day and 200-day averages, but close to the 52-week high and subject to live-chart confirmation
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 10, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. Scotiabank has a long public reporting history, audited annual reports, quarterly reports, regulatory-capital disclosures, investor materials, and liquid NYSE and TSX market data.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias risk is treating improved quarterly earnings and a rising share price as proof that the bank cycle will remain favorable. The countercheck is whether credit quality, deposit costs, capital, Canadian housing exposure, and execution in the Pacific Alliance markets remain sound if rates or growth change.
- ai Confidence
- High for disclosed FY2025 and Q2 2026 facts, shares, market-cap arithmetic, and valuation calculations. Medium for technical levels and forward returns because market data, rates, credit conditions, and bank multiples can move quickly.
- investment Certainty
- Medium. BNS has a durable deposit and lending franchise with strong disclosure, but investment certainty is lower than data confidence because banks are levered, regulated, cyclical, and sensitive to credit, funding, and macroeconomic conditions.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | BNS earns from Canadian personal and commercial banking, Pacific Alliance banking, wealth management, deposits, lending, payments, advice, trading, and corporate and investment banking. | High |
| Moat | The moat combines trusted brands, deposit relationships, regulated licenses, client switching friction, Canadian distribution, regional scale, payments and treasury links, risk systems, and data. | Medium-high |
| Management | Management is judged on underwriting, capital allocation, expense discipline, technology investment, and execution in Canada and the Pacific Alliance through the cycle. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was C$33.027 billion and reported net income was C$7.758 billion. Q2 2026 reported revenue was C$9.837 billion and reported net income was C$2.632 billion. | High |
| Valuation | Using the July 8 quote and StockAnalysis TTM inputs, financial_rigor.py calculates about 15.93x EPS, 1.63x book value, and a 3.75% dividend yield. The price requires continued earnings and credit discipline. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | BNS was above its dated $81.24 50-day and $73.26 200-day averages, with RSI at 53.12. The $87.98 52-week high is nearby resistance, so live confirmation matters. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are credit losses, Canadian housing and consumer stress, deposit pricing, rate changes, capital requirements, Pacific Alliance economic or political risk, cyber events, currency movements, and valuation compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for sourced historical facts and reproducible calculations. Medium for the forecast because no model can reliably anticipate a credit shock, rate move, regulatory action, or market re-rating. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. BNS has scale, diversified earnings, and a solid CET1 ratio, but the current valuation leaves less room for a disappointment in credit quality, margins, or capital returns. | Medium |
BNS AI stock forecast
BNS AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The BNS AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario model around the $84.91 July 8 quote and $5.33 TTM EPS. financial_rigor.py produced a bullish value near $131.20, a base value near $97.90, and a bearish value near $56.60 before dividends. These are scenario outputs, not price promises.
Base case
$93 to $103
More likely if EPS grows near 7% annually, deposits and funding costs remain orderly, provisions stay manageable, Canada and Pacific Alliance operations remain resilient, and the market applies about 15x earnings.
Bearish case
$53 to $61
More likely if credit losses rise, funding costs pressure margins, Canadian housing or consumer conditions weaken, capital needs increase, or investors re-rate BNS closer to 10x lower EPS.
BNS AI technical analysis
BNS AI Technical Analysis
BNS AI technical analysis was constructive at the July 10, 2026 data cutoff, using the latest verified July 8 quote of $84.91. StockAnalysis showed a $54.32 to $87.98 52-week range, a $81.24 50-day average, a $73.26 200-day average, RSI of 53.12, and 20-day average volume of 3.34 million shares. Refresh all technical inputs on a live chart before acting because this is a static research page.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $84.91 | StockAnalysis July 8, 2026 close used for static market-cap and valuation math. |
| Near support | $81 to $82 | This zone is near the dated 50-day average. Confirm support with live price action and volume. |
| Secondary support | $72 to $74 | This zone is near the dated 200-day average. Recheck earnings, credit data, and the current chart before using it. |
| Near resistance | $87 to $88 | StockAnalysis listed a $87.98 52-week high in its July 8 snapshot. |
| 50-day moving average | $81.24 | Dated July 9, 2026 snapshot. Refresh before using it as a trend signal. |
| 200-day moving average | $73.26 | Dated July 9, 2026 snapshot. Refresh before using it as a trend signal. |
| Momentum | RSI 53.12 | The dated reading was neutral rather than an overbought signal. |
| Volume | 3.34 million shares | This is the dated 20-day average volume. A breakout is more credible when live volume exceeds its recent average. |
| Volatility | 5-year beta 1.21 | Volatility can expand around earnings, rate decisions, credit headlines, capital disclosures, and macroeconomic news. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $81, then $73 | A failed hold of the dated moving-average zones weakens the setup. Recheck live averages before using a stop. |
BNS AI trading strategy
BNS AI Trading Strategy Framework
The BNS AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a large cross-border bank. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live chart data, earnings releases, credit trends, capital disclosures, rate decisions, and defined risk limits.
Trend-following setup
Watch for BNS to hold the $81 to $82 area and clear the $87 to $88 resistance band on above-average live volume, with confirmation from bank-sector strength and no adverse credit or capital news.
A breakout that fails back below nearby support should invalidate the short-term setup.
Mean-reversion setup
If BNS pulls back toward $81 or the broader $72 to $74 area without deterioration in provisions, CET1 capital, deposits, earnings, or management guidance, compare the price move with the updated long-term bank thesis.
Do not treat a large bank franchise as a substitute for risk control. Credit and regulatory surprises can change bank prices quickly.
Fundamental monitor
Track net interest income, provisions for credit losses, deposits, CET1 ratio, dividend and buyback policy, Canadian housing and consumer indicators, Pacific Alliance results, wealth assets, capital-markets revenue, and management guidance.
Reduce confidence if provisions rise faster than revenue, capital buffers narrow, deposit funding becomes materially more expensive, or valuation remains high while EPS momentum slows.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
BNS helps households, businesses, governments, and institutions save, borrow, pay, invest, manage cash, trade, raise capital, and manage financial risk across Canada, the Pacific Alliance, the Caribbean, and the United States.
Moat
The moat rests on deposit relationships, brands, regulated banking licenses, Canadian distribution, regional banking capabilities, payments and treasury relationships, data, scale, and risk-management infrastructure.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis fails if credit losses rise, deposit costs remain high, Canadian housing or consumer conditions deteriorate, Pacific Alliance markets weaken, capital needs increase, a cyber event damages trust, or a recession exposes balance-sheet risk.
Management
Management must show that capital allocation, underwriting, operational controls, technology investment, and international execution can protect the franchise while preserving service quality and returns. The key test is sustained discipline rather than a single quarter.
Industry trend
BNS benefits from durable demand for deposits, lending, payments, wealth services, transaction banking, and digital banking. These trends do not remove cyclicality, interest-rate sensitivity, credit risk, or regulatory oversight.
Valuation and margin of safety
At about 15.93x trailing EPS and 1.63x book value per share, BNS is not priced as a distressed bank. Margin of safety improves if the share price falls while capital, credit quality, deposits, and earnings power remain intact.
Source-backed data
BNS Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| BNS price and market capitalization | $84.91 and $104.01 billion as of July 8, 2026 | StockAnalysis BNS statistics and market-cap data | July 10, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding and market-cap check | 1.23 billion shares; $84.91 x 1.23 billion = $104.44 billion, 0.41% above the reported market cap | StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py | July 10, 2026 |
| FY2025 reported revenue and net income | C$33.027 billion and C$7.758 billion | Scotiabank 2025 Annual Report, cross-checked against StockAnalysis | July 10, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | C$9.837 billion reported revenue, C$2.632 billion reported net income, C$2.00 diluted EPS, and 13.3% CET1 | Scotiabank Q2 2026 earnings release and Report to Shareholders | July 10, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 cash and deposits with financial institutions | C$79.301 billion at April 30, 2026 | Scotiabank Q2 2026 Report to Shareholders | July 10, 2026 |
| TTM valuation inputs | $5.33 EPS, $52.19 book value per share, negative $19.58 free cash flow per share, and $3.18 annual dividend per share | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py valuation check | July 10, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | $54.32 to $87.98 52-week range, $81.24 50-day average, $73.26 200-day average, RSI 53.12, and 3.34 million 20-day average volume | StockAnalysis BNS statistics | July 10, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
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This BNS AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial planning, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data and simplified assumptions as of the stated cutoff date, and they may be wrong.
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