Is TD a buy according to AI stock analysis?

TD AI stock analysis does not label the stock a universal buy because suitability depends on price, risk tolerance, time horizon, and portfolio context. The page views TD positively for franchise scale, disclosure depth, execution ahead of Investor Day targets, and capital, but the share price now trades above the average analyst target of about $112.39 and bank-cycle and remediation risks remain.

What is the TD AI stock forecast?

The TD AI stock forecast uses scenarios instead of a single prediction. The audited three-year framework produced a bullish zone near $175 to $190, a base zone near $135 to $150, and a bearish zone near $80 to $95 before dividends, with outcomes driven by earnings growth, credit losses, rates, remediation, capital rules, and valuation multiples.

What technical levels matter for TD?

The key TD technical levels are support near $117 to $118 from the 50-day moving average, broader support near $109 to $112 from the 100-day average, resistance near $120 to $121 from the 20-day average, and the 52-week high of $124.87 above. Refresh the moving averages on a live chart because this static page does not present dated averages as current trading signals.

Can AI predict TD stock price?

No, AI cannot reliably predict stock prices. AI can organize filings, valuation math, technical levels, and risk scenarios, but TD stock can move because of credit losses, interest rates, regulation, AML remediation, earnings surprises, capital returns, or market sentiment that no model can know in advance.

How should I use this TD AI trading strategy?

Use this TD AI trading strategy as a research checklist, not as personal financial advice. Confirm live prices, volume, the next earnings date of August 27, 2026, credit data, rate decisions, capital disclosures, and US remediation updates before acting, and define invalidation levels before entering any trade.

Why does TD trade above the average analyst price target?

The TD share price rose roughly 63% over the past 52 weeks and now sits above the consensus target of about $112.39. That can mean the market has already priced in improved earnings and remediation progress, so the key question is whether EPS and ROE momentum can keep up with the price rather than relying on further multiple expansion.

What makes The Toronto-Dominion Bank different from other bank stocks?

The Toronto-Dominion Bank combines a major Canadian retail and commercial bank with a large US retail operation, wealth, insurance, wholesale banking, and payments-related capabilities. That diversification can support earnings resilience, but it does not remove credit, deposit, regulatory, remediation, or valuation risk.

The Toronto-Dominion Bank research snapshot

TD AI Stock Analysis

TD AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads The Toronto-Dominion Bank as a large Canadian and US banking franchise whose fiscal 2026 execution is running ahead of its Investor Day targets. At the July 31, 2026 close, TD traded at $119.92 with market capitalization near $197.89 billion, cross-verified as $119.92 times 1.65 billion shares with a 0.01% deviation. Q2 2026, reported May 28, 2026, delivered EPS up 21% year over year, ROE of 14.4% up more than 200 basis points, a dividend increase to C$1.12 per share, a CET1 ratio of 14.3%, and stable total provisions of 43 basis points, while AML remediation costs began to shift toward validation and sustainability. The stock has risen roughly 63% over the past 52 weeks and now trades above the average analyst target of about $112.39, so the market has already priced in a large share of the improvement. The AI score is positive for franchise scale, disclosure depth, capital, and execution, but the TD AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a single price target because credit losses, rates, US AML remediation, regulation, and valuation can change bank returns quickly. This page is informational research and not investment advice.

Current price

$119.92

Market cap

$197.89 billion

AI score

72 / 100

Rating

Execution ahead of Investor Day targets, with the stock trading above the consensus price target

Trend status

Above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and just below the 20-day average after touching a 52-week high

Data cutoff (updated monthly)

August 4, 2026

Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.

Research quality check

information Richness: A-level information richness. TD has decades of public filings, detailed annual and quarterly reports, regulatory-capital disclosures, investor materials, 13 to 15 active analyst ratings, daily market data, and broad third-party coverage.
bias Check: The main AI bias risk is treating a roughly 63% share-price rally and a large reported profit as proof that all US regulatory and operating risks have passed. The reverse check is whether the current price, which sits above the average analyst target, can be justified by continued remediation progress, credit quality, deposit costs, capital deployment, and normalized earnings rather than by momentum alone.
ai Confidence: High for the July 31, 2026 price, market-cap math, FY2025 revenue and net income, Q2 2026 results, CET1 capital, and share count. Medium for technical moving averages and forward returns because vendor chart data and bank-cycle conditions change quickly, and because the stock is trading above the analyst consensus target.
investment Certainty: Medium. TD is highly disclosed and easy to follow relative to smaller banks, but investment certainty is lower than data confidence because bank balance sheets are levered, regulated, cyclical, and exposed to US remediation execution, and because the share price now trades above the average analyst target.

Quick verdict table

Dimension	Conclusion	Confidence
Business quality	TD earns from Canadian retail and commercial banking, US retail banking, wealth and insurance, wholesale banking, deposits, lending, payments, and capital-markets services, with FY2025 revenue before loan losses near C$67.78 billion and net income to common shareholders near C$19.97 billion.	High
Moat	The moat combines deposit relationships, regulated licenses, trusted brands, Canadian distribution, US retail presence, payments and treasury relationships, data, risk systems, and scale across Canada and the US. Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking posted record Q2 2026 revenue, pre-tax pre-provision profit, and earnings.	Medium-high
Management	Management is judged mainly on capital allocation, risk controls, and the pace and quality of US AML remediation. Q2 2026 delivered EPS up 21%, ROE of 14.4%, a dividend increase to C$1.12, and a CET1 ratio of 14.3% after buying back about 19 million shares.	Medium-high
Financial trend	FY2025 revenue before loan losses was C$67.78 billion and net income to common shareholders was C$19.97 billion. Q2 2026 revenue was about C$14.80 billion with EPS of C$2.38, EPS up 21% year over year, ROE of 14.4%, and total provisions stable at 43 basis points.	High
Valuation	At $119.92, the audited snapshot calculates about 19.3x trailing EPS, 2.23x book value per share, an implied ROE near 11.5% on book value per share, and a 2.59% indicated dividend yield, with the share price above the average analyst target of about $112.39.	Medium-high
Technical trend	TD closed at $119.92 on July 31, 2026, above its 50-day ($117.88) and 200-day ($99.63) moving averages but below its 20-day average ($120.74), after touching a 52-week high of $124.87. RSI near 51 was neutral and 14-day ADX near 22.65 showed a modest trend.	Medium
Risk level	Main risks are US AML remediation, regulatory restrictions, credit losses, Canadian housing and consumer stress, deposit pricing, rate changes, trade and geopolitical uncertainty, cyber events, and valuation compression because the stock trades above consensus targets.	Medium-high
AI confidence	High for sourced historical facts and calculation checks. Medium for the forecast because earnings and bank multiples can shift with rates, credit, regulation, and sentiment, and because the price already reflects a large share of the recovery.	High data confidence
Investment certainty	Medium certainty. The franchise and capital are material strengths, but a share price above the average analyst target leaves less room for a setback in remediation or credit quality.	Medium

TD AI stock forecast

TD AI Stock Forecast Scenarios

The TD AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $119.92 and trailing EPS of $6.22. The three-year framework audited with financial_rigor.py produced a bullish value near $182, a base value near $141, and a bearish value near $87 before dividends, using EPS growth of 10%, 6%, and 0% and exit multiples of 22x, 19x, and 14x. This is a scenario range, not a price promise.

Bullish case

$175 to $190

More likely if adjusted EPS grows near 10% annually, credit losses remain contained, US AML remediation progresses without new restrictions, deposits and net interest margin hold, capital returns continue, and investors apply about 22x earnings.

Base case

$135 to $150

More likely if EPS grows near 6% annually, deposits and credit costs normalize without stress, Canadian and US banking remain resilient, and the market applies about 19x earnings.

Bearish case

$80 to $95

More likely if credit losses rise, remediation costs or restrictions worsen, deposit costs pressure margins, rates or the economy hurt earnings, or investors reprice TD closer to 14x earnings.

TD AI technical analysis

TD AI Technical Analysis

TD AI technical analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. TD closed at $119.92 on July 31, 2026, above its 50-day ($117.88) and 200-day ($99.63) moving averages but just below its 20-day average ($120.74), after touching a 52-week high of $124.87. RSI near 51 was neutral and 14-day ADX near 22.65 indicated a modest, not powerful, trend. Moving averages, momentum, and volume should be refreshed on a live chart before acting because this is a static research page.

Level	Value	Why it matters
Current price	$119.92	StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 1.65 billion shares outstanding.
Near support	$117 to $118	Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both placed the 50-day moving average near $117.88 on July 31, 2026, making it the first nearby price zone to monitor.
Secondary support	$109 to $112	The 100-day moving average was near $109.42, a broader pullback zone below the 50-day. Confirm with current price action and volume.
Near resistance	$120 to $121	The 20-day moving average was near $120.74, capping the immediate rebound.
Primary resistance	$124.87	StockAnalysis.com and Google Finance both listed a 52-week high of $124.87.
50-day moving average	$117.88	Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 50-day average near $117.88 on July 31, 2026.
200-day moving average	$99.63	Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 200-day trend line near $99.63, well below price and confirming the longer-term uptrend.
Momentum	RSI near 51, ADX near 23	14-day RSI near 51.05 was neutral and 14-day ADX near 22.65 indicated a modest trend rather than a powerful one.
Volume	About 2.4M to 3.2M average shares	Daily volume was about 2.4 million shares on July 31, 2026. Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 3.17 million and StockAnalysis.com near 2.68 million. A breakout is more credible when live volume exceeds its recent average.
Volatility	Bank and policy sensitive	Barchart reported 14-day historic volatility near 23.5% and 20-day near 22.3%. Volatility can expand around the August 27, 2026 earnings date, rate decisions, credit headlines, and US remediation updates.
Invalidation	Sustained close below $117.88, then $109.42	A failed hold of the 50-day moving average weakens the short-term setup. A close below the 100-day average near $109.42 would damage the medium-term trend. Recheck live moving averages before using a wider stop.

TD AI trading strategy

TD AI Trading Strategy Framework

The TD AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a large cross-border bank. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live chart data, earnings releases, credit trends, capital disclosures, rate decisions, and US remediation updates.

Trend-following setup

Watch for TD to reclaim the 20-day moving average near $120.74 and then clear the $124.87 52-week high on above-average live volume, with confirmation from bank-sector strength and no adverse remediation or credit news.

A breakout that fails back below the 50-day moving average near $117.88 should invalidate the short-term setup.

Mean-reversion setup

If TD pulls back toward the $117 to $118 50-day zone or the $109 to $112 100-day zone without deterioration in credit, CET1 capital, deposits, earnings, or remediation progress, compare the price move with the long-term bank thesis.

Do not treat a large bank franchise as a substitute for risk control. Credit and regulatory surprises can change bank prices quickly, and the stock already trades above the average analyst target.

Fundamental monitor

Track net interest income, provisions for credit losses, deposits, the CET1 ratio, the C$7 billion buyback and dividend policy, Canadian housing and consumer indicators, US retail results against the about US$2.9 billion fiscal 2026 income target, AML remediation milestones, and management guidance.

Reduce confidence if provisions rise faster than revenue, capital restrictions tighten, remediation costs increase, deposit funding becomes materially more expensive, or valuation stays high while EPS momentum slows.

Investment research summary

Four-master Research Compression

Business essence

TD helps households, businesses, governments, and institutions save, borrow, pay, invest, manage cash, trade, raise capital, and manage financial risk across Canada and the United States. In FY2025, Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking generated about C$20.7 billion of revenue, Wealth Management and Insurance about C$14.6 billion, US Retail about C$12.3 billion, and Wholesale Banking about C$8.4 billion.

Moat

The moat rests on deposit relationships, brands, regulated banking licenses, Canadian distribution, US retail presence, payments and treasury relationships, data, scale, and risk-management infrastructure. Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking delivered record Q2 2026 revenue, pre-tax pre-provision profit, and earnings.

Munger risk inversion

The thesis fails if AML remediation takes longer or becomes more costly, regulators restrict growth or capital returns, credit losses rise, deposit costs stay elevated, a cyber event damages trust, or a recession exposes balance-sheet risk.

Management

Management must show that capital allocation, operational controls, and remediation execution can protect the franchise while preserving returns. Q2 2026 delivered EPS up 21%, ROE of 14.4%, a dividend increase, and a CET1 ratio of 14.3%, but the stock now trades above the average analyst target, so execution must keep catching up with the price.

Industry trend

TD benefits from durable demand for deposits, lending, payments, wealth services, transaction banking, and digital banking. Those trends do not remove cyclicality, interest-rate sensitivity, or intense regulatory oversight.

Valuation and margin of safety

At about 19.3x trailing EPS and 2.23x book value per share, TD no longer trades as a distressed bank. Margin of safety improves if the share price falls while capital, credit quality, deposits, and remediation progress remain intact, because the current price already sits above the analyst consensus target.

Source-backed data

TD Data Table

Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.

Metric	Value	Source	Last verified
TD price	$119.92 at the July 31, 2026 close	StockAnalysis.com real-time quote	August 2, 2026
Market capitalization	$197.89 billion, computed as $119.92 x 1.65 billion shares with a 0.01% deviation	StockAnalysis.com quote and share statistics	August 2, 2026
Shares outstanding	1.65 billion per S&P Global via StockAnalysis.com; Google Finance lists about 1.69 billion	StockAnalysis.com statistics and Google Finance TD quote	August 2, 2026
52-week range and daily volume	$72.21 to $124.87; about 2.38 million shares on July 31, 2026	StockAnalysis.com and Google Finance TD quote	August 2, 2026
FY2025 revenue	C$67,777 million revenue before loan losses, or C$63,271 million reported revenue up 19.45%	StockAnalysis.com income statement and TD 2025 Annual Report	August 2, 2026
FY2025 net income	C$19,973 million net income to common shareholders, up 140.18% from C$8,316 million	StockAnalysis.com income statement	August 2, 2026
Q2 2026 results	Revenue about C$14.80 billion, net income about C$4.25 billion, EPS C$2.38, beating the C$2.26 estimate	Google Finance quarterly data and TD Q2 2026 earnings release	May 28, 2026
Q2 2026 earnings call highlights	EPS up 21% year over year, ROE 14.4% up more than 200 basis points, fourth consecutive quarter of positive operating leverage, dividend raised to C$1.12 per share, CET1 14.3%, total PCLs 43 basis points	TD Q2 2026 earnings call transcript	May 28, 2026
CET1 capital ratio	14.3% at April 30, 2026, down 26 basis points sequentially after repurchasing about 19 million shares	TD Q2 2026 earnings call	May 28, 2026
Credit and allowance position	Impaired PCLs of $973 million down $191 million quarter over quarter, gross impaired loans at 54 basis points, allowance coverage at 97 basis points, fiscal 2026 PCL guidance of 40 to 50 basis points	TD Q2 2026 earnings call	May 28, 2026
AML remediation	About US$500 million full-year 2026 spend guidance; costs shifting toward validation and sustainability; third-party vendor completed the first population of look-back reviews	TD Q2 2026 earnings call	May 28, 2026
Capital returns	C$7 billion share buyback underway, with about C$15 billion to be returned to shareholders including prior repurchases	TD Q2 2026 earnings call	May 28, 2026
Balance sheet at April 30, 2026	Total assets C$2.09 trillion, book value C$124.32 billion, book value per share C$73.45, tangible book value per share C$60.40	StockAnalysis.com balance sheet	August 2, 2026
Cash and debt vendor snapshot	$468.08 billion cash and $384.00 billion debt under S&P Global classification; the balance sheet shows C$115,982 million cash and C$26,362 million total debt at April 30, 2026	StockAnalysis.com statistics and balance sheet	August 2, 2026
Valuation check	18.80x trailing PE, 17.71x forward PE, 2.17x book value, 2.58% dividend yield, EPS TTM $6.22, ROE 11.91%	StockAnalysis.com statistics	August 2, 2026
Audited valuation cross-check	$119.92 over $6.22 EPS gives about 19.3x trailing PE; $119.92 over $53.88 book value per share gives about 2.23x; $3.10 dividend gives about 2.59% yield	financial_rigor.py verification	August 2, 2026
Analyst consensus	Buy with an average target of $112.39 across 13 analysts, low $96.32 and high $128.47, last updated June 22, 2026	StockAnalysis.com forecast	July 20, 2026
Analyst rating mix, July 2026	4 Strong Buy, 5 Buy, 2 Hold, 1 Sell, 1 Strong Sell out of 13 analysts	StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends	July 20, 2026
Recent analyst target updates	BofA Securities $119 to $129, Scotiabank $117 to $120, Desjardins $114 to $119, Raymond James $108 to $110; CAD-based targets from TipRanks include Scotiabank C$169, RBC Capital C$156, CIBC C$164, Barclays C$140, Jefferies C$151	StockAnalysis.com forecast and TipRanks	July 16, 2026
2026 and 2027 consensus estimates	FY2026 revenue estimate C$60.23 billion with EPS C$9.69, FY2027 revenue C$63.76 billion with EPS C$10.75	StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast	July 20, 2026
Technical snapshot	20-day SMA near $120.74, 50-day SMA near $117.88, 100-day SMA near $109.42, 200-day SMA near $99.63, 14-day RSI near 51.05, 14-day ADX near 22.65	Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots	August 2, 2026
Short interest	7.84 million shares short, 0.47% of shares outstanding, 3.3 days to cover	StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling	August 2, 2026
Next earnings date	August 27, 2026, before market open, fiscal Q3 2026	StockAnalysis.com quote	August 2, 2026

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This TD AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial planning, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data and simplified assumptions as of the stated cutoff date, and they may be wrong. Vendor data can differ across sources, and market and filing data change quickly.