Bullish case
$170 to $180
More likely if adjusted earnings grow near 10% annually, credit losses remain contained, U.S. remediation progresses without new restrictions, capital returns continue, and investors apply about 22x earnings.
The Toronto-Dominion Bank research snapshot
TD AI Stock Analysis
TD AI stock analysis currently reads The Toronto-Dominion Bank as a large, diversified Canadian and U.S. banking franchise whose 2026 results show stronger reported earnings, solid capital, and broad customer relationships. At the July 10, 2026 data cutoff, TD traded near $120.68 with market capitalization near $204.91 billion. The AI analysis score is positive for disclosure depth, franchise scale, and capital, but the TD AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a single price target because credit losses, rates, U.S. AML remediation, regulation, and valuation can change bank returns quickly. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$120.68
Market cap
$204.91 billion
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
Large Canadian and U.S. bank franchise with improving earnings and capital, balanced against AML remediation and bank-cycle risk
Trend status
Strong price trend near the 52-week high, with live moving-average confirmation required before a trade
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 10, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. TD has decades of public filings, detailed annual and quarterly reports, regulatory-capital disclosures, investor materials, daily market data, and broad third-party coverage.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias risk is treating a sharp share-price recovery and a large reported profit as proof that all U.S. regulatory and operating risks have passed. The countercheck is whether U.S. remediation, credit quality, deposit costs, capital deployment, and normalized earnings continue to improve.
- ai Confidence
- High for the July 10 price, market-cap math, FY2025 reported revenue, FY2025 reported net income, Q2 2026 revenue, CET1 capital, and share count. Medium for technical moving averages and forward returns because vendor chart data and bank-cycle conditions change quickly.
- investment Certainty
- Medium. TD is highly disclosed and easy to follow relative to smaller banks, but investment certainty is lower than data confidence because bank balance sheets are levered, regulated, cyclical, and exposed to U.S. remediation execution.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | TD earns from Canadian retail and commercial banking, U.S. retail banking, wealth and insurance, wholesale banking, deposits, lending, payments, and capital-markets services. | High |
| Moat | The moat combines deposit relationships, regulated licenses, trusted brands, distribution, payments and treasury relationships, data, risk systems, and scale across Canada and the U.S. | Medium-high |
| Management | Management is judged mainly on capital allocation, risk controls, and the pace and quality of U.S. AML remediation rather than on a single earnings quarter. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 reported revenue was C$67.78 billion and reported net income was C$20.11 billion. Q2 2026 total revenue was C$16.04 billion and reported net income available to common shareholders was C$4.05 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $120.68, the audited snapshot calculates about 20.18x EPS, 1.80x book value, an 8.92% implied ROE on book value per share, and a 2.68% indicated dividend yield. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | TD was trading close to its $122.65 52-week high. The direction is constructive, but this static page does not treat a dated moving-average number as a live signal. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are U.S. AML remediation, regulatory restrictions, credit losses, Canadian housing and consumer stress, deposit pricing, rate changes, cyber events, and valuation compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for sourced historical facts and calculation checks. Medium for the forecast because earnings and bank multiples can shift with rates, credit, regulation, and sentiment. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The franchise and capital are material strengths, but a near-high share price leaves less room for a setback in remediation or credit quality. | Medium |
TD AI stock forecast
TD AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The TD AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $120.68 quote and $5.98 trailing EPS. A three-year framework audited with financial_rigor.py produced a bullish value near $175.10, a base value near $135.30, and a bearish value near $83.70 before dividends. This is a scenario range, not a price promise.
Base case
$130 to $140
More likely if EPS grows near 6% annually, deposits and credit costs normalize without stress, Canadian and U.S. banking remain resilient, and the market applies about 19x earnings.
Bearish case
$80 to $90
More likely if credit losses rise, remediation costs or restrictions worsen, deposit costs pressure margins, rates hurt earnings, or investors reprice TD closer to 14x earnings.
TD AI technical analysis
TD AI Technical Analysis
TD AI technical analysis was constructive as of the July 10, 2026 data cutoff. Google Finance showed TD near $120.68, a $122.65 52-week high, a $72.21 52-week low, and average volume near 2.64 million shares. Moving averages, momentum, and volume should be refreshed on a live chart before acting because this is a static research page.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $120.68 | Google Finance quote snapshot at the July 10, 2026 cutoff. |
| Near support | $118 to $120 | The July 10 intraday low was $118.27, making this the first nearby price zone to monitor. |
| Secondary support | $110 to $115 | A broader pullback zone, not a live moving-average reading. Confirm it with current price action and volume. |
| Near resistance | $122 to $123 | Google Finance listed a 52-week high of $122.65. |
| 50-day moving average | Refresh on a live chart | No static moving-average value is presented as current. Price should hold above a refreshed 50-day average for trend confirmation. |
| 200-day moving average | Refresh on a live chart | Use a live 200-day average to distinguish a pullback from broader trend damage. |
| Momentum | Near 52-week high | Momentum is positive, but entries near resistance have breakout-failure risk. |
| Volume | 2.64M average shares | Google Finance snapshot. A breakout is more credible when live volume exceeds its recent average. |
| Volatility | Bank and policy sensitive | Volatility can expand around earnings, rate decisions, credit headlines, regulatory news, and U.S. remediation updates. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $118, then $110 | A failed hold of nearby support weakens the short-term setup. Recheck live moving averages before using a wider stop. |
TD AI trading strategy
TD AI Trading Strategy Framework
The TD AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a large cross-border bank. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live chart data, earnings releases, credit trends, capital disclosures, rate decisions, and U.S. remediation updates.
Trend-following setup
Watch for TD to hold the $118 to $120 area and then clear the $122 to $123 resistance band on above-average live volume, with confirmation from bank-sector strength and no adverse remediation news.
A breakout that fails back below nearby support should invalidate the short-term setup.
Mean-reversion setup
If TD pulls back toward $118 or the broader $110 to $115 area without deterioration in credit, CET1 capital, deposits, earnings, or remediation progress, compare the price move with the long-term bank thesis.
Do not treat a large bank franchise as a substitute for risk control. Credit and regulatory surprises can change bank prices quickly.
Fundamental monitor
Track net interest income, provisions for credit losses, deposits, CET1 ratio, dividend and buyback policy, Canadian housing and consumer indicators, U.S. retail-bank results, AML remediation milestones, and management guidance.
Reduce confidence if provisions rise faster than revenue, capital restrictions tighten, remediation costs increase, deposit funding becomes materially more expensive, or valuation stays high while EPS momentum slows.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
TD helps households, businesses, governments, and institutions save, borrow, pay, invest, manage cash, trade, raise capital, and manage financial risk across Canada and the United States.
Moat
The moat rests on deposit relationships, brands, regulated banking licenses, Canadian distribution, U.S. retail presence, payments and treasury relationships, data, scale, and risk-management infrastructure.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis fails if AML remediation takes longer or becomes more costly, regulators restrict growth or capital returns, credit losses rise, deposit costs stay elevated, a cyber event damages trust, or a recession exposes balance-sheet risk.
Management
Management must show that capital allocation, operational controls, and remediation execution can protect the franchise while preserving service quality and returns. The key test is sustained execution rather than a single quarter.
Industry trend
TD benefits from durable demand for deposits, lending, payments, wealth services, transaction banking, and digital banking. Those trends do not remove cyclicality, interest-rate sensitivity, or intense regulatory oversight.
Valuation and margin of safety
At about 20.18x trailing EPS and 1.80x estimated book value per share, TD is not priced as a distressed bank. Margin of safety improves if the share price falls while capital, credit quality, deposits, and remediation progress remain intact.
Source-backed data
TD Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $120.68 | Google Finance TD quote | July 10, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $204.91 billion | Google Finance TD quote | July 10, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 1.69 billion | Google Finance TD quote and TD 2025 Annual Report | July 10, 2026 |
| FY2025 reported total revenue | C$67.78 billion | TD 2025 Annual Report and CEO message | July 10, 2026 |
| FY2025 reported net income | C$20.11 billion | TD 2025 Annual Report | July 10, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 total revenue | C$16.04 billion | TD Q2 2026 earnings release | July 10, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net income available to common shareholders | C$4.05 billion reported | TD Q2 2026 earnings release | July 10, 2026 |
| CET1 capital ratio | 14.3% at April 30, 2026 | TD Q2 2026 earnings release | July 10, 2026 |
| Cash and debt vendor snapshot | $468.08 billion cash and $384.00 billion debt | StockAnalysis TD statistics | July 10, 2026 |
| 52-week range and average volume | $72.21 to $122.65; 2.64M average shares | Google Finance TD quote | July 10, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
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This TD AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial planning, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data and simplified assumptions as of the stated cutoff date, and they may be wrong.
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