Royal Bank of Canada research snapshot
RY AI stock analysis reads Royal Bank of Canada as a high-scale Canadian banking, wealth management, capital markets, insurance, and investor services franchise with a strong fiscal Q2 2026 result. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, the latest independently sourced close was $209.51 on July 31, 2026, with a verified market capitalization near $290.66 billion. The RY AI stock forecast is constructive but scenario based because credit losses, interest rates, capital markets activity, wealth assets, the Canadian economy, and valuation can change the earnings path. The 14-analyst consensus is Buy, but the average 12-month target of $193.65 sits below the current price, and the next quarterly report is scheduled for August 26, 2026. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$209.51
Market cap
$290.66 billion verified market cap
AI score
71 / 100
Rating
High-quality diversified Canadian bank with strong earnings and a price above the 14-analyst consensus target
Trend status
Above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages near the upper end of its 52-week range, with momentum cooled from earlier highs
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | RBC earns from Canadian personal and commercial banking, wealth management, insurance, capital markets, investor services, deposits, lending, advice, and payments across Canada, the United States, and other markets. | High |
| Moat | The moat rests on a trusted national brand, deposit and client relationships, banking licenses, regulatory scale, wealth and capital-markets distribution, data, risk infrastructure, and the cost of moving complex financial relationships. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Dave McKay leads an institutional management team. The key test is whether management protects underwriting and capital discipline while funding growth investments and returning capital after the HSBC Canada integration. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Fiscal 2025 total revenue was C$66.605 billion and net income was C$20.369 billion. In fiscal Q2 2026, total revenue was C$17.453 billion, net income was C$5.509 billion, diluted EPS was C$3.85, ROE was 17.2%, and CET1 was 13.5%. | High |
| Valuation | Using the July 31 close of $209.51 with StockAnalysis TTM inputs, financial_rigor.py calculates about 18.54x EPS, 3.06x book value, and a 2.26% dividend yield. The 14-analyst average target of $193.65 implies the market has moved ahead of consensus. | High |
| Technical trend | The StockAnalysis snapshot showed price above the 50-day average near $202.59 and the 200-day average near $174.26, with a 14-day RSI of 53.09 that has cooled from the earlier strong reading. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are credit losses, Canadian housing and commercial real estate stress, funding and deposit costs, lower wealth or capital-markets fees, capital requirements, integration execution, and a valuation reset after a large 52-week gain. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for historical facts and reproducible calculations. Medium for the forecast because neither AI nor historical data can reliably anticipate a credit shock, rate shift, regulatory action, or market multiple change. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. RY is a durable franchise, but the current price leaves less room for disappointment if earnings, credit quality, capital returns, or the bank multiple deteriorate. | Medium |
RY AI stock forecast
The RY AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario model around the $209.51 July 31 close and $11.30 TTM EPS. financial_rigor.py produced a bullish value near $349, a base value near $256, and a bearish value near $136 before dividends. These are scenario outputs, not price promises, and they depend on EPS growth, credit costs, rates, wealth assets, capital markets activity, and the valuation multiple investors apply.
$330 to $360
More likely if Canadian and U.S. credit remains healthy, wealth assets and capital-markets fees rise, HSBC Canada integration supports returns, CET1 stays strong, EPS grows near 12%, and investors keep a premium multiple near 22x.
$245 to $265
More likely if EPS grows near 8%, deposits and margins stay orderly, provisions remain manageable, wealth and markets revenue grow at a normal pace, and RY trades near 18x earnings.
$130 to $145
More likely if unemployment and credit losses rise, housing or commercial real estate weakens, funding costs pressure margins, capital-markets fees contract, EPS stalls, or investors re-rate RY near 12x earnings.
RY AI technical analysis
RY AI technical analysis was constructive at the August 2, 2026 cutoff, using the StockAnalysis snapshot of the July 31, 2026 close. Price was above both the 50-day simple moving average near $202.59 and the 200-day simple moving average near $174.26, with a 14-day RSI of 53.09 that has cooled from overbought levels after a 61.92% gain over the past 52 weeks. Technical inputs are time-sensitive and should be refreshed before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $209.51 | StockAnalysis July 31, 2026 close used for static market-cap and valuation math. |
| Near support | $202.59 | The July 31 50-day simple moving average is the first intermediate support reference. |
| Secondary support | $174.26 | The July 31 200-day moving average is the larger trend support area. |
| Near resistance | $218.57 | The 52-week high near $218.57 is the nearest material resistance reference. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $202.59, 200-day $174.26 | Price was above both averages in the July 31 snapshot, supporting a positive trend read. |
| Momentum | 14-day RSI 53.09 | Momentum is positive but no longer overbought after the recent strong run. |
| Volume | 20-day average about 1.38 million shares | Use volume confirmation around bank earnings, rate decisions, credit news, and breakouts. |
| Volatility | 5-year beta 0.93 | Headline beta is moderate, but bank-specific credit and regulatory developments can still cause sharp gaps. |
| Invalidation | Close below $202.59, then $174.26 | A close below the 50-day average weakens the near-term setup. A break below the 200-day average is a more material trend warning. |
RY AI trading strategy
The RY AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a large Canadian bank with credit, rate, wealth, and capital-markets exposure. It is not personal financial advice and should be used only with live data, position sizing, earnings dates, and defined risk limits.
Watch for RY to hold the $202.59 area and clear the $218.57 52-week high with volume confirmation. Tie the chart setup to stable provisions, capital ratios, and revenue momentum rather than price alone.
A close below the 50-day average or a failed breakout after earnings, credit, or rate news should invalidate the short-term setup.
If RY retreats toward the $174.26 long-term trend zone without a worsening in provisions, deposits, CET1, or wealth assets, compare the pullback with the updated earnings and credit thesis before assuming the dip is attractive.
Do not treat a bank brand as protection from downside. Predefine loss limits because credit and funding concerns can change valuation quickly.
Track provisions for credit losses, impaired-loan trends, net interest margin, Canadian Banking deposits and loans, Wealth Management assets under administration, Capital Markets revenue, CET1, book value, buybacks, and the HSBC Canada integration.
Reduce confidence if earnings depend mainly on a higher multiple while provisions, funding costs, capital needs, or client assets deteriorate.
Investment research summary
Royal Bank of Canada turns trusted deposit, lending, wealth, insurance, payments, advisory, custody, and capital-markets relationships into net interest income, fees, trading revenue, and long-duration client relationships.
RBC benefits from a national brand, regulated banking licenses, deposit scale, client switching friction, wealth and capital-markets distribution, risk systems, and the cost of replicating a broad financial-services platform. The moat narrows if funding costs or credit losses overwhelm these advantages.
The thesis fails if a Canadian or U.S. credit downturn raises provisions, housing or commercial real estate weakens, funding costs rise, wealth assets fall, capital-markets activity cools, integration costs persist, or a premium valuation contracts.
Dave McKay and the management team have to balance growth, technology investment, integration, dividends and buybacks with conservative underwriting and capital buffers. The key-person risk is lower than at a founder-led company, but risk culture and allocation still matter.
Large Canadian banks benefit from digital adoption, wealth accumulation, payments, advice, and scale-based compliance economics. Shorter-term outcomes remain tied to credit, rates, regulation, housing, market levels, and the health of the Canadian economy.
At the July 31 close, RY was priced as a high-quality bank, not a stressed lender, and the price had moved above the 14-analyst average target. Margin of safety improves if the stock falls while provisions, capital, deposits, and wealth flows remain sound. It weakens if the current multiple persists while EPS expectations fall.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| RY price and market capitalization | $209.51 close and $290.66 billion market cap on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis market-cap data, sourced from Nasdaq Data Link | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding and market-cap check | 1.39 billion common shares; $209.51 x 1.39 billion = $291.22 billion, 0.19% above reported market cap | StockAnalysis share data and financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2025 revenue and net income | C$66.605 billion total revenue and C$20.369 billion net income | RBC Q2 2026 Supplementary Financial Information | August 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal Q2 2026 results | C$17.453 billion total revenue, C$5.509 billion net income, C$3.85 diluted EPS, 17.2% ROE, and 13.5% CET1 | RBC Q2 2026 results release and supplementary information | August 2, 2026 |
| Wealth scale | C$5.87 trillion assets under administration and C$1.63 trillion assets under management in Q2 2026 | RBC Q2 2026 Supplementary Financial Information | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM valuation inputs | $11.30 EPS, $68.53 book value per share, and $4.74 annual dividend per share | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py valuation check | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | RSI 53.09, 50-day SMA $202.59, 200-day SMA $174.26, and 5-year beta 0.93 | StockAnalysis RY statistics, July 31 snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy, 14 analysts, average 12-month price target $193.65, and next earnings date August 26, 2026 | StockAnalysis RY overview and forecast pages | August 2, 2026 |
| Three-scenario model | Bear $135.6, base $256.2, bull $349.3 over three years before dividends | financial_rigor.py three-scenario model | August 2, 2026 |
This RY AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on public data available as of August 2, 2026 and may be wrong if Royal Bank of Canada fundamentals, credit losses, rates, deposits, capital requirements, regulation, competition, market conditions, or valuation change.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
