Ball Corporation research snapshot
BALL AI stock analysis reads Ball Corporation as an aluminum packaging leader with improving earnings momentum after Q1 2026 comparable EPS growth of 22.1%, a 2026 outlook for 10% plus EPS growth and free cash flow above $900 million, and a wave of analyst upgrades. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, BALL traded near $64.90 with a market capitalization of about $17.28 billion. The forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price call, and the stock still carries meaningful debt that limits the margin of safety.
Current price
$64.90
Market cap
$17.28 billion
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
Improving earnings momentum, leverage still the key constraint
Trend status
Bullish technical trend above all key moving averages, with Q2 earnings due August 4, 2026
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Ball is a global aluminum packaging company serving beverage, personal care, and household product customers with recurring volume demand across North and Central America, EMEA, and South America. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Scale, plant network, customer contracts, process know-how, and sustainability positioning support the moat, but packaging remains price and cost sensitive. | Medium |
| Management | Ron Lewis became CEO in 2025 and management has emphasized EVA discipline, share buybacks, free cash flow, and the January 2026 Benepack European capacity acquisition while keeping a 10% plus EPS growth target. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 sales were $13.16 billion with net earnings attributable to Ball of $912 million, and Q1 2026 comparable EPS rose 22.1% to $0.94 on higher volume and price mix. | High |
| Valuation | At $64.90, the stock trades near 18.9x TTM EPS, 15.9x forward EPS, 3.1x book value, and 29x TTM free cash flow per share. | Medium |
| Technical trend | BALL closed above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day simple moving averages on July 31, 2026, so price momentum is bullish with RSI near 61.5. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Main risks are leverage, weaker beverage can demand, customer pricing pressure, raw material cost timing, tariffs, the seasonal free cash flow swing, and execution in the acquired Benepack European capacity. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because reported data is rich. Return confidence is lower because valuation depends on future volume, costs, leverage reduction, and capital returns. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Ball is a higher-quality packaging name with improving momentum, but the current price requires confidence in free cash flow durability and balance sheet progress. | Medium |
BALL AI stock forecast
The BALL AI stock forecast should be read as scenario math, not a precise price target. Using the FY2026 consensus EPS estimate of about $4.00, the July 31, 2026 price reference near $64.90, and a three-year framework, the tested range spans about $44 in a bear case, $69 in a base case, and $96 in a bullish case before dividends. These levels sit around the analyst average target of $71.14.
$88 to $102
More likely if global beverage can shipments keep growing, the Benepack footprint adds profitable European capacity, free cash flow stays near or above the $900 million target, debt trends lower, and EPS compounds near 10% per year.
$64 to $74
More likely if EPS compounds near 7%, free cash flow remains positive, volume growth stays low single digit, and the market keeps BALL near a 14x to 16x forward multiple.
$40 to $48
More likely if packaging volumes slow, raw material or logistics costs pressure margins, leverage stays elevated, free cash flow falls short of guidance, or investors assign a lower multiple to a capital-intensive packaging business.
BALL AI technical analysis
BALL AI technical analysis is bullish as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a July 31, 2026 close of $64.90, and both StockAnalysis and Barchart placed price above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day simple moving averages with 14-day RSI near 61.5 and 14-day ADX near 35. The setup is constructive, but the next earnings report on August 4, 2026 creates event risk, so a defined invalidation level is required.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $64.90 | StockAnalysis reported the July 31, 2026 close at $64.90, down 0.63% for the session. |
| Near support | $62.50 to $62.89 | Barchart listed the 20-day simple moving average near $62.89. A close below this band would weaken the current short-term trend. |
| Mid support | $59.50 to $59.89 | Barchart placed the 50-day moving average near $59.51 and the 100-day near $59.89, forming a support cluster. |
| Longer support | $57.24 | Both StockAnalysis and Barchart listed the 200-day simple moving average near $57.24, below the current price. |
| Near resistance | $65 to $68.29 | Price is approaching the upper end of its range with the 52-week high at $68.29. A sustained close above this zone would support trend continuation. |
| Moving averages | Above 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMA | This is a bullish stacking pattern, but moving averages are lagging indicators and should not be treated as a forecast. |
| Momentum | RSI near 61.5, ADX near 35 | 14-day RSI was about 61.55 and 14-day ADX about 35.5, which confirms a trending move rather than a flat range. |
| Volume | About 1.9 million average shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 1.87 million shares, useful for checking breakout quality. |
| Volatility | Elevated near earnings | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 26%, so position sizing should account for larger swings around reports and guidance. |
| Volatility marker | Q2 earnings due August 4, 2026 | StockAnalysis listed the next confirmed earnings date as August 4, 2026, before market open, which can raise event risk. |
| Invalidation | Close below $59.50 | A decisive close below the 50-day and 100-day support cluster would invalidate the near-term trend-following setup. |
BALL AI trading strategy
The BALL AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It combines business evidence, technical confirmation, and predefined invalidation levels so the trade plan does not depend on a single AI forecast.
Watch for BALL to hold above the $62.50 to $62.89 support band and to push toward the $68.29 52-week high with confirmation from volume and stable market breadth.
Use a close below the 20-day moving average near $62.89 or a failed attempt at the 52-week high as a rules-based invalidation signal.
If BALL pulls back toward the $59.50 to $59.89 50-day and 100-day support cluster while fundamentals remain intact, compare price action with Q2 results, free cash flow updates, beverage can shipment growth, and debt reduction progress.
Avoid averaging down if the next earnings update shows weaker volume, margin pressure, a higher net debt burden, or guidance below the 10% EPS growth target.
Track global aluminum packaging shipments, North and Central America margins, EMEA volume including Benepack, South America demand, free cash flow, net debt and leverage, share repurchases, dividends, and customer or tariff risk.
Do not treat buybacks or analyst upgrades as a substitute for margin of safety. Position sizing should account for leverage and event risk around the August 4 earnings report.
Investment research summary
Ball sells aluminum packaging that large consumer brands need for beverage, personal care, and household products. Customers pay for scale, reliability, quality control, sustainability benefits, and regional supply near demand.
The moat comes from global manufacturing scale, customer relationships, plant location, process efficiency, and aluminum sustainability positioning. It is not a monopoly moat because customers can pressure price and competitors can add capacity.
The thesis fails if can demand slows, customers squeeze pricing, aluminum cost pass-through timing hurts margins, leverage limits capital returns, tariffs raise cost, or the acquired Benepack European capacity underperforms.
Ron Lewis moved from operational leadership into the CEO role in 2025. The capital allocation test is whether management can balance debt, buybacks, dividends, the Benepack integration, and EVA discipline after selling aerospace.
Ball benefits from beverage can growth, sustainability demand, and customer preference for recyclable aluminum formats. The trend is favorable, but mature packaging demand and raw material cycles keep the business from being a pure growth story.
At about 18.9x TTM EPS, 15.9x forward EPS, and a 3.4% free cash flow yield, BALL is not priced as a deep value stock. Margin of safety depends on durable free cash flow, lower leverage, and execution that supports a mid-teens forward multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| BALL closing price | $64.90 on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis quote | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 266.25 million shares | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Market cap | $17.28 billion, verified as $64.90 x 266.25M shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net sales | $13.16 billion | Ball FY2025 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net earnings attributable to Ball | $912 million | Ball FY2025 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 comparable EPS | $0.94 per diluted share, up 22.1% from $0.77 | Ball Q1 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 comparable operating earnings | $387 million, up 9.9% from $352 million | Ball Q1 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | Comparable diluted EPS growth of 10% plus, free cash flow above $900 million, at least $800 million in shareholder returns | Ball Q1 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | $730 million at March 31, 2026 | Ball Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Total debt | $7.807 billion at March 31, 2026 | Ball Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Net debt and leverage | Net debt of $7.077 billion, leverage of 3.39x comparable EBITDA, interest coverage of 6.48x | Ball Q1 2026 results release non-GAAP measures | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM financials | Revenue of $13.67 billion, net income of $938 million, free cash flow of $596 million | StockAnalysis financial statements | August 2, 2026 |
| Segment revenue mix, TTM | North and Central America $6.60B, EMEA $4.19B, South America $2.20B, Other $0.67B | StockAnalysis segment breakdown | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 18.87x trailing EPS, 15.89x forward EPS, 3.08x book value, 28.99x free cash flow, 1.23% dividend yield | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $71.14 across 15 analysts, low $60, median $72, high $77 | StockAnalysis forecast and analyst ratings | July 29, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 9 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, 3 Hold, 0 Sell out of 15 analysts | StockAnalysis forecast recommendation trends | July 29, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Wells Fargo $60 to $71, RBC $75 to $77, Citi $73 to $72, UBS $64 to $65, BofA buy maintained with target near $73 | StockAnalysis forecast latest forecasts | July 29, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate $14.45B with EPS $4.00, FY2027 revenue $14.95B with EPS $4.52 | StockAnalysis forecast financial forecast | July 29, 2026 |
| Short interest | 7.71 million shares short, 2.89% of shares outstanding, 2.67 days to cover | StockAnalysis statistics short selling | August 1, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day SMA $62.89, 50-day SMA $59.51, 100-day SMA $59.89, 200-day SMA $57.24, RSI near 61.5, ADX near 35 | Barchart and StockAnalysis technical snapshots | July 31, 2026 |
| Company profile | Global aluminum packaging company with 16,000 employees and more than 65 manufacturing plants and facilities worldwide | Ball Q1 2026 results release company description | August 2, 2026 |
This BALL AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold Ball Corporation stock. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong if business conditions, market prices, interest rates, tariffs, or company disclosures change after the stated cutoff date.
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