Silgan Holdings Inc. research snapshot
SLGN AI stock analysis reads Silgan Holdings as the largest metal food container supplier in North America, serving essential consumer goods with metal containers, closures, and plastic packaging. At the July 31, 2026 data cutoff, SLGN closed at $39.98 with a market capitalization of $4.23 billion. Q2 2026 results released July 29 beat estimates with $1.64 billion revenue and adjusted EPS of $0.98, on 7% sales growth led by fragrance and pet food demand, and the company reaffirmed FY26 adjusted EPS guidance of $3.73 to $3.93. The stock still fell after the report because of margin pressure and softness in Brazil and human food. The TTM P/E of about 15.7x and forward P/E near 10.3x are reasonable for packaging, while debt of about $4.8 billion and input cost trends remain the key uncertainties. This page is for informational use only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$39.98
Market cap
$4.23 billion
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Durable rigid packaging leader with essential consumer demand, but margin pressure and elevated debt now weigh on the near-term outlook
Trend status
In a short-term downtrend after Q2 2026 results: SLGN fell from a July 17 high near $48.30 to $39.98 at the July 31, 2026 close, below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Silgan is the largest metal food container supplier in North America and also produces metal vacuum closures and plastic containers. About 70% of revenue comes from food and pet food packaging, which benefits from relatively stable consumer demand. Q2 2026 sales grew 7% with strong fragrance and pet food demand offsetting softer Brazil and human food volumes. | High |
| Moat | The moat derives from long-term supply contracts with major food and beverage brands, manufacturing scale across 50+ plants in North and South America, Europe and Asia, filling-line compatible container specifications that create switching costs, and an 850+ patent portfolio in closure technology. The moat is durable but provides limited pricing power when input costs rise. | Medium-high |
| Management | Management reaffirmed FY26 adjusted EPS guidance of $3.73 to $3.93 and free cash flow of about $450 million in Q2 2026. The key tests are margin recovery from input cost pressure, execution in Brazil, reducing debt of about $4.8 billion, and capital allocation across a dividend with 21 years of growth, buybacks, and organic investment. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue was about $6.68 billion with TTM GAAP net income of about $270 million and EPS of $2.55. Q2 2026 net income of $75.8 million improved on the weak Q4 2025 quarter. Free cash flow of about $343 million covers the dividend, but total debt of $4.83 billion keeps leverage high. | High for reported data |
| Valuation | At $39.98, the TTM GAAP P/E is about 15.7x with a forward P/E near 10.3x based on FY26 guidance. EV/EBITDA is about 9.6x on an enterprise value of $8.71 billion and TTM EBITDA of about $910 million. The 2.10% dividend yield provides an income floor and the multiples are reasonable for a packaging company. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The July 31 close of $39.98 sits below the 50-day moving average near $42.33, the 100-day near $41.12, and the 200-day near $41.80 after the post-earnings decline. RSI near 34 is approaching oversold, and Barchart technical opinion is Weak Sell with a weakening short-term outlook. | Medium |
| Risk level | Material risks include elevated debt (total debt of $4.83 billion and debt/EBITDA near 5.3x per stockanalysis), aluminum, steel and resin cost inflation, Brazil and human food softness, customer concentration with large food companies, and potential substitution by flexible packaging. | High |
| AI confidence | Reported financial facts are well documented from Q2 2026 filings, guidance, and market data. Forecasts and technical levels remain dependent on macroeconomic variables that no model can predict with certainty. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. Silgan offers essential demand, a 2.10% dividend yield, and a supportive analyst consensus, but elevated debt and near-term margin pressure reduce the margin of safety. This is a research framework rather than a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
SLGN AI stock forecast
The SLGN AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario calculation from the July 31, 2026 closing price of $39.98, TTM GAAP EPS of $2.55, and FY26 adjusted EPS guidance of $3.73 to $3.93. The calculated bearish, base, and bullish values are about $28, $46, and $64 respectively. These are conditional valuation outputs, not price targets or promises.
$56 to $72
More likely if input costs stay range-bound, dispensing and specialty closures keep growing volumes at high single digits, fragrance and pet food demand stays strong, Brazil recovers, margins expand, and the stock re-rates toward 14-15x forward earnings on improved confidence.
$40 to $52
More likely if packaging demand grows modestly with GDP, margin pressure gradually eases, debt is slowly reduced, and earnings reach about $4.0 to $4.3 per share with a 11-12x multiple consistent with packaging industry averages.
$24 to $34
More likely if a recession reduces consumer goods demand, input costs spike without full pass-through, Brazil and human food volumes keep declining, debt covenants become restrictive, or earnings decline near 3% with an 8-9x multiple.
SLGN AI technical analysis
This SLGN AI technical analysis uses Google Finance and Barchart price data around the July 31, 2026 close. SLGN broke below its 200-day moving average after Q2 results and is in a short-term downtrend. Technical levels are time-sensitive and should be refreshed before any trade decision.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Near-term support | $39.11 to $39.55 | Barchart turning points put first support near $39.55 and second support near $39.11. A sustained break below this zone would test the third support level near $38.40. |
| Near-term resistance | $40.70 to $41.41 | Barchart first and second resistance points cap early rebounds. Above this range, the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement near $40.98 and the 200-day moving average near $41.80 add overhead supply. |
| 50-day moving average | ~$42.33 | From Barchart. The stock closed below this level at the July 31 cutoff, a negative near-term signal that needs to be reclaimed for stabilization. |
| 200-day moving average | ~$41.80 | From Barchart. SLGN closed below this longer-term average, which weakens the multi-year technical picture until price recaptures it. |
| Momentum | RSI near 34 | Relative strength is approaching oversold after the post-earnings drop. ADX near 31 with negative directional index above positive directional index confirms the current downtrend. |
| Volume | About 1.66M 20-day average shares | July 31 volume of about 2.08M was above average on a down day, consistent with selling pressure into the earnings release. |
| Volatility marker | Options expected range $37.69 to $42.28 | Options-implied expected move for the next 19 days. The 14-day ATR of about $1.80 (4.5% of price) reflects elevated post-earnings volatility. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $38.40 | A close below the third support level near $38.40, particularly on above-average volume with no supportive company news, would open a path toward the 52-week low of $35.68. |
SLGN AI trading strategy
The SLGN AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. Confirm current chart data and use position sizing that reflects the elevated post-earnings volatility. Monitor input costs, segment volumes, Brazil results, debt metrics, and consumer spending trends rather than treating a historical level as permanent support or resistance.
Wait for SLGN to reclaim and hold above the 200-day moving average near $41.80 and the 50-day moving average near $42.33 on volume at or above its 20-day average, then confirm stable margins and volume growth across all three segments.
Treat a failed reclaim followed by a sustained close below $38.40 as an invalidation condition. Size for mid-cap packaging volatility rather than a fixed nominal amount.
RSI near 34 puts SLGN close to oversold. If price holds the $39.11 to $39.55 support zone with declining volume and improving relative strength, compare with Q2 margin commentary, Brazil trends, and Q3 2026 guidance before assuming a bounce.
Do not average down simply because price is near oversold. Reassess if input costs spike, debt metrics deteriorate, or the third support at $38.40 breaks.
Track quarterly revenue, segment margins (Metal Containers, Dispensing and Specialty Closures, Custom Containers), free cash flow, net debt/EBITDA, raw material costs (aluminum, steel, resin), Brazil results, FY26 EPS guidance of $3.73 to $3.93, and share repurchase activity.
Lower confidence if free cash flow does not cover the dividend, debt reduction stalls, Brazil or human food volumes decline for two consecutive quarters, or a major customer is lost.
Investment research summary
Silgan earns revenue by manufacturing and selling rigid packaging to consumer goods companies. Customers are major food, pet food, beverage, household, personal care, and fragrance brands. Recurring demand comes from essential consumer products that need packaging regardless of economic conditions, giving Silgan relatively stable demand compared to discretionary manufacturers, and Q2 2026 sales grew 7% with fragrance and pet food leading.
The moat is built on long-term supply contracts with major brands, manufacturing scale across 50+ plants on four continents, filling-line compatibility that creates customer switching costs, and over 850 patents in closure and dispensing technology. It is durable for an industrial packaging company but provides limited protection against input cost spikes or customer consolidation.
The thesis fails if margin pressure continues because raw material costs rise faster than Silgan can pass through, Brazil and human food volumes keep weakening, debt becomes harder to service in a rising-rate environment, a major customer shifts to self-manufacturing or alternative packaging, or the specialty closures growth story stalls.
Management built Silgan through decades of disciplined acquisitions into a $4.23 billion market cap company. It reaffirmed FY26 adjusted EPS guidance of $3.73 to $3.93 and free cash flow near $450 million in Q2. The key tests are margin recovery, reducing debt from about $4.8 billion, and deploying capital across the dividend, buybacks, and organic growth in higher-margin segments.
Packaging demand is tied to essential consumer spending, which is resilient but low-growth. Growth is concentrated in dispensing systems and specialty closures for fragrance, beauty, and pet food, while Brazil and human food add cyclical pressure. Silgan is investing in those higher-growth niches to offset slower core metal container volume.
At the July 31, 2026 cutoff price, the TTM GAAP P/E was about 15.7x, forward P/E near 10.3x, and EV/EBITDA about 9.6x. The 2.10% dividend yield provides a modest income floor, and analysts average a target near $53.5 to $54.8, but the elevated debt load and near-term margin pressure limit the margin of safety.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SLGN closing price and market capitalization | $39.98 close and $4.23B market cap on July 31, 2026 | Google Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding and valuation snapshot | 105.68M shares, 15.71x TTM P/E, 10.26x forward P/E, 0.67x P/S, 1.82x P/B, beta 0.66 | Google Finance, Barchart | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 earnings | $1.64B revenue (beat $1.62B estimate), adjusted EPS $0.98 (beat $0.96 estimate), GAAP net income $75.8M, 7% sales growth | Google Finance earnings data, Q2 2026 press release | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue, net income and EPS | Approximately $6.68B TTM revenue, $270.3M TTM net income, and $2.55 TTM EPS | stockanalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Enterprise value and EBITDA | $8.71B enterprise value, $910M TTM EBITDA, EV/EBITDA about 9.6x, total debt $4.83B, net cash negative $4.48B | stockanalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance | Adjusted EPS reaffirmed at $3.73 to $3.93, Q3 adjusted EPS guided to $1.21 to $1.31, free cash flow near $450M, capex about $310M | Q2 2026 earnings release via TheFly | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend and yield | $0.84 annual dividend, 2.10% forward yield, $0.21 quarterly, ex-dividend June 1, 2026, 21 years of dividend growth | Google Finance, stockanalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy from 13 to 14 analysts. Average price target $53.50 to $54.77 (range $47 to $59) | Google Finance analyst ratings, stockanalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation. Forecast scenarios use available reported data and assumptions that may be wrong. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Verify current data and consider professional advice before making an investment decision.
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