AvePoint Inc research snapshot
AVPT AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads AvePoint as a profitable cloud-native data management and governance software company whose price trend has recovered while the valuation remains rich. The stock closed at $13.36 on August 3, 2026, up 0.33 or 2.53% from the $13.03 prior close, after opening at $13.40 and trading in a session range of $13.27 to $13.65, with an after-hours quote of $13.55, carrying a market capitalization near $2.83 billion that matches the $13.36 price times 212.02 million shares outstanding. TTM revenue is $443.68 million up 27.12%, TTM net income is $46.61 million, TTM free cash flow is $105.58 million, and the balance sheet holds about $444.21 million in cash against about $22.01 million of debt, a net cash position near $422.20 million or $1.99 per share. The stock now trades above all of its major moving averages, a reversal from the July technical setup, but the trailing P/E near 66.8x, forward P/E near 32x, and EV/EBITDA near 49.4x require sustained double-digit growth, margin expansion, and multiple stability to be justified. Q2 2026 results are scheduled for August 6, 2026, which is a key near-term catalyst and risk. This page uses scenario ranges and source checks, not a certain stock price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$13.36 at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, up 0.33 or 2.53% from the $13.03 prior close, after opening at $13.40 and trading in a session range of $13.27 to $13.65 on the StockAnalysis.com real-time quote, with an after-hours quote of $13.55, up 0.19 or 1.44%
Market cap
$2.83 billion reported by StockAnalysis.com at the August 3, 2026 market close, matching the $13.36 price times 212.02 million shares outstanding with a 0.09% deviation in the financial_rigor.py verification
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Profitable SaaS data management company with improving margins, a large net cash position, and a recovered price trend, but with an elevated earnings multiple
Trend status
Bullish trend above the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages near $13.03, $12.78, $11.57, $10.79, and $11.75, with 14-day RSI near 64.98 approaching overbought after a recovery from the $8.84 52-week low area
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | AvePoint sells cloud-native data management, data governance, backup, and modernization software for Microsoft 365, Salesforce, Google Workspace, AWS, and other platforms, with TTM revenue of $443.68 million up 27.12%, a gross margin near 73.68%, and positive GAAP operating income. | High |
| Moat | The moat is based on deep Microsoft ecosystem integration, certified platform connectors, enterprise compliance workflows, and switching costs from embedded data governance processes. It is real but not wide because Microsoft itself competes in parts of the stack and larger data management vendors target the same customers. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Dr. Tianyi Jiang co-founded the company and has led its evolution from Microsoft-centric tools to a multi-cloud data and AI governance platform. Management should be judged on Q1 2026 SaaS revenue growth of 35% to $93.4 million, total ARR growth of 26% to $435.2 million, margin trajectory, free cash flow conversion, and disciplined capital allocation. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $419.53 million up 26.93% with GAAP net income of $34.8 million. TTM revenue is $443.68 million with TTM net income of $46.61 million and TTM free cash flow of $105.58 million. The balance sheet holds about $444.21 million in cash against about $22.01 million of total debt, a net cash position near $422.20 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $13.36, AVPT trades near 66.8x trailing EPS, 32x forward EPS, 6.39x trailing revenue, 26.72x trailing free cash flow, and 6.45x book value, with EV/EBITDA near 49.4x. The earnings multiple is elevated but partly reflects the early-stage profitability of a growing SaaS business. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock closed at $13.36 on August 3, 2026, above the 5-day moving average near $13.03, the 20-day near $12.78, the 50-day near $11.57, the 100-day near $10.79, and the 200-day near $11.75, a recovered setup after trading below those averages in July. The 14-day RSI near 64.98 is approaching overbought. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risks include the elevated earnings multiple, Microsoft platform dependency, competition from Microsoft-native tools and larger vendors, a 22.28% year-over-year share count increase, small-cap volatility, and a Q2 2026 report due August 6, 2026 that could swing the stock. | High |
| AI confidence | High for reported financials, balance sheet math, and market data; medium for growth projections and competitive dynamics that drive forward valuation. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. The page frames valuation ranges, technical levels, and monitoring rules, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium-low |
AVPT AI stock forecast
The AVPT AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $13.36 quote and the FY2026 non-GAAP EPS consensus of $0.40. The three-year framework produced a bearish area near $7 to $11, a base area near $16 to $22, and a bullish area near $26 to $34, reflecting different EPS growth rates and exit valuation multiple assumptions, with the base area broadly consistent with the $16.20 average analyst price target.
$26 to $34
More likely if AvePoint sustains SaaS revenue growth above 30%, expands operating margins toward the 12% to 15% range, converts free cash flow at a high rate, wins larger multi-cloud and AI governance deals, and the market keeps a premium forward multiple near 35x on a three-year EPS growth path of about 30% per year.
$16 to $22
More likely if revenue grows in the 20% range, margins improve gradually, free cash flow stays positive, and the forward multiple holds near 28x on EPS growth of about 20% per year, which keeps the stock consistent with the $16.20 average analyst target and the $15 median target.
$7 to $11
More likely if revenue growth decelerates below 15%, competition from Microsoft-native tools and larger data governance platforms intensifies, the share count keeps rising, margins compress, or the forward multiple contracts toward 18x on slow EPS growth of about 8% per year as SaaS growth stocks fall out of favor.
AVPT AI technical analysis
AVPT AI technical analysis shows a recovered and now bullish intermediate-term picture as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $13.36 on August 3, 2026, above the 5-day moving average near $13.03, the 20-day near $12.78, the 50-day near $11.57, the 100-day near $10.79, and the 200-day near $11.75, after recovering from the 52-week low near $8.84. The 14-day RSI near 64.98 and the 9-day stochastic near 85% suggest momentum is strong but approaching overbought, so pullbacks to the moving-average cluster are the cleaner entry references than chasing strength.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $13.36 | StockAnalysis.com reported AVPT at $13.36 at the August 3, 2026 market close, up 2.53%, with an after-hours quote of $13.55. |
| Near support | $12.78 to $13.03 | The 20-day moving average near $12.78 and the 5-day moving average near $13.03 form the nearest support zone below the August 3 close. |
| Key support cluster | $11.57 to $11.75 | The 50-day moving average near $11.57 and the 200-day moving average near $11.75 form a support cluster that defined the prior downtrend and now serves as the main technical floor. |
| 20-day moving average | $12.78 | Barchart listed the 20-day moving average near $12.78, about 10.9% above where price traded 20 sessions ago, confirming the short-term recovery. |
| 50-day moving average | $11.57 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both listed the 50-day moving average near $11.57, now below price and confirming the medium-term uptrend. |
| 200-day moving average | $11.75 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both listed the 200-day moving average near $11.75, now below price, marking the long-term trend as improving after a prolonged decline. |
| Resistance | $13.65 to $14.50 | The August 3 session high near $13.65 is the immediate overhead, with the $14.50 to $15.00 zone as the next reference before the 52-week high near $18.55. |
| Momentum | RSI near 64.98, 9-day stochastic near 85% | The 14-day RSI was near 64.98 on StockAnalysis.com statistics and Barchart on August 3, 2026, strong but not overbought, while the 9-day stochastic near 85% flags that a short-term pullback would be normal. |
| Volume | About 2.2 million average 20-day shares | StockAnalysis.com listed 20-day average volume near 2,172,309 shares and Barchart listed about 2,253,620 shares, with the August 3 session showing about 1.59 million shares traded. |
| Volatility | ATR near $0.53, beta 1.18 | The 14-day average true range near $0.53 or about 3.97% of price and the 1.18 beta on StockAnalysis.com statistics imply above-average swings, so position sizing should account for moves near earnings on August 6, 2026. |
| Invalidation | Close below $12.78 | A decisive close below the 20-day moving average near $12.78 would weaken the short-term setup, and a close below the 50-day near $11.57 would turn the medium-term trend bearish again. |
AVPT AI trading strategy
The AVPT AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a small-cap SaaS stock with improving fundamentals, a recovered price trend, a high earnings multiple, and an earnings catalyst on August 6, 2026. It is not personal advice and should be paired with current chart data, the Q2 2026 report, position sizing, and explicit invalidation levels.
Watch for AVPT to hold above the 20-day moving average near $12.78 and to build volume on a move through the August 3 high near $13.65 toward the $14.50 zone. Confirmation should include Q2 2026 revenue and SaaS growth near or above the 26% and 35% year-over-year levels from Q1 2026, sustained ARR growth near 26%, and no reduction to the $509.4M to $515.4M FY2026 revenue guidance.
A close back below the 20-day moving average near $12.78 should reduce confidence in the trend setup, and a close below the 50-day near $11.57 should trigger a stop and review.
If AVPT pulls back toward the $11.57 to $12.78 support cluster without a negative fundamental catalyst, compare the price reaction with Q2 2026 results, guidance, and net cash per share near $1.99 before assuming the pullback is a buying opportunity.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because small-cap SaaS stocks can decline sharply if growth deceleration, customer concentration, dilution, or guidance cuts emerge after earnings.
Track AvePoint quarterly revenue growth, SaaS revenue growth, ARR growth, GAAP net income trajectory, free cash flow, cash and debt, share count changes given the 22.28% year-over-year increase, Microsoft ecosystem partnership developments, multi-cloud and AI governance deal wins, and the August 6, 2026 Q2 report.
Reduce confidence if the thesis depends on sustained high forward multiples near 32x while interest rates stay elevated, if revenue growth decelerates below 15%, or if the share count keeps growing faster than revenue.
Investment research summary
AvePoint helps organizations manage, protect, and govern data inside Microsoft 365, Salesforce, Google Workspace, AWS, Box, and Dropbox. Customers pay because data governance, backup, and compliance are mandatory for regulated enterprises, and switching costs are embedded in configured workflows.
The moat comes from deep Microsoft ISV integration, certified platform connectors, enterprise compliance workflows, and a partner ecosystem. It is real but not wide because Microsoft itself competes in parts of the governance and security stack, and larger data management vendors target the same customers.
The thesis fails if AvePoint revenue growth decelerates below 15%, Microsoft-native tools reduce demand for third-party governance software, larger competitors win consolidation deals, the share count keeps rising, or the stock re-rates to a lower multiple that offsets any earnings growth.
Founder-led management with deep Microsoft ecosystem expertise. Dr. Tianyi Jiang should be judged on SaaS revenue growth of 35% in Q1 2026, ARR growth of 26% to $435.2 million, operating margin expansion, free cash flow generation, competitive win rates, and disciplined capital allocation.
AvePoint is tied to cloud adoption, enterprise data governance regulation, AI governance demand, and the Microsoft 365 ecosystem. These are secular growth tailwinds, but the competitive landscape includes Microsoft-native tools, Dell, Veritas, Commvault, and Veeam.
At about 66.8x trailing EPS, 32x forward EPS, and 49.4x EV/EBITDA, the stock is priced for continued growth. Margin of safety depends on sustained double-digit revenue growth, GAAP profitability expansion, a stable share count, and a valuation multiple that does not contract faster than earnings grow.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| AVPT price | $13.36 at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, up 0.33 or 2.53%, after opening at $13.40 and trading from $13.27 to $13.65, with an after-hours quote of $13.55 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $2.83 billion, verified by financial_rigor.py as $13.36 x 212.02 million shares, matching the reported value with a 0.09% deviation | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics, financial_rigor.py | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 212.02 million shares, up 22.28% year over year and down 2.21% quarter over quarter, with insiders holding 23.80% and institutions 55.60% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Revenue TTM | $443.68 million up 27.12%, matching StockAnalysis.com financials and Yahoo Finance key statistics | StockAnalysis.com financials and Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Net income TTM | $46.61 million with diluted EPS TTM of $0.20, matching StockAnalysis.com statistics and Yahoo Finance key statistics | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | Revenue of $419.53 million up 26.93%, gross profit of $310.72 million, operating income of $33.04 million, and GAAP net income of $34.8 million with EPS of $0.15 | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Total revenue of $117.2 million up 26% year over year, SaaS revenue of $93.4 million up 35% year over year and 29% on a constant currency basis, total ARR of $435.2 million up 26% year over year, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.07, reported May 7, 2026 | AvePoint Q1 2026 press release via GlobeNewswire | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance | Revenue guidance of $509.4 million to $515.4 million with Q2 2026 revenue guidance of $120.3 million to $122.3 million, and Q2 2026 results scheduled for August 6, 2026 | AvePoint Q1 2026 press release and earnings calendar | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash position | About $444.21 million in cash against about $22.01 million of total debt, a net cash position near $422.20 million or $1.99 per share, with a current ratio near 2.16 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $2.41 billion, with EV/EBITDA near 49.37, EV/FCF near 22.83, and EV/Sales near 5.43 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Free cash flow TTM | Operating cash flow of $109.02 million, capital expenditures of $3.45 million, and free cash flow of $105.58 million, a margin near 23.80%, with FCF per share near $0.50 | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 66.80x trailing EPS, 6.39x trailing revenue, 26.72x trailing free cash flow, 6.45x book value, and a 3.74% free cash flow yield, verified by financial_rigor.py | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 4, 2026 |
| Forward valuation | Forward P/E near 32.07 and forward P/S near 5.27 on StockAnalysis.com statistics, with an FY2026 non-GAAP EPS estimate of $0.40 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average price target of $16.20 across 14 analysts, low $12 and high $26, with a median target of $15 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 8 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, and 4 Hold out of 14 analysts, with 0 Sell ratings | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | August 4, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Jefferies maintained Buy with a $16 target on July 28, 2026, D.A. Davidson maintained Buy with an $18 target on July 6, 2026, William Blair holds no target, Goldman Sachs lowered to $14 on May 13, 2026, and Scotiabank lowered to $12 on May 8, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | August 4, 2026 |
| Short interest | 12.45 million shares short, 5.87% of shares outstanding and 8.79% of float, 4.38 days to cover, down from 16.10 million the prior month | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 14-day RSI near 64.98, 50-day moving average near $11.57, 200-day moving average near $11.75, and 20-day average volume near 2.2 million shares | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Barchart technical analysis | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range and performance | 52-week range of $8.84 to $18.55, down 25.57% over the trailing 52 weeks, with a beta of 1.18 | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Financial forecast | FY2026 revenue estimate of $512.82 million up 22.25% with non-GAAP EPS of $0.40, and FY2027 revenue estimate of $616.26 million up 20.17% with non-GAAP EPS of $0.50, with 3-year revenue growth forecast near 21.12% and 3-year EPS growth forecast near 24.40% | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | August 4, 2026 |
This AVPT AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a rating, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of August 4, 2026, and may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after AvePoint results, the August 6, 2026 Q2 report, SaaS sector multiples, interest rates, competitive dynamics, share issuance, or technical conditions change.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
