Tenable Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
TENB AI stock analysis reads Tenable as a now GAAP-profitable exposure management platform that beat Q2 2026 estimates and raised full-year guidance on July 29, 2026, with TTM revenue of $1.02 billion and a forward P/E near 15.5x after the pullback. The caution is growth: Q2 revenue rose 8.6% year-over-year, the raised 2026 revenue outlook still implies a slower second half, and the stock gave back about 28% from its July peak of $43.67, closing at $31.48 on July 29, 2026 with a pre-market reading near $27.79 on August 3, 2026. The TENB AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a price prediction, and depends on whether Tenable One and AI security traction, GAAP margin expansion, free cash flow conversion, and re-accelerating growth can support current valuation assumptions.
Current price
$31.48 close on July 29, 2026, with a pre-market reading near $27.79 on August 3, 2026
Market cap
$3.47 billion
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
GAAP profitability achieved with a raised 2026 outlook, but single-digit revenue growth and a sharp post-earnings de-rating shift the question from profitability to growth
Trend status
Uptrend under correction: YTD gain of 33.79% as of July 29, 2026, but TENB pulled back to $31.48 from its 52-week high of $43.67, with a pre-market indication near $27.79 on August 3, 2026
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Tenable sells vulnerability management, exposure management, cloud security, identity security, OT security, and AI security solutions through the Tenable One platform and the flagship Nessus scanner, serving more than 40,000 customers. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from the Nessus installed base, vulnerability assessment credibility, threat content library, regulatory compliance footprint, and platform breadth spanning on-premises, cloud, identity, OT, and AI security. Switching costs are moderate. | Medium-high |
| Management | Co-CEOs Steve Vintz and Mark Thurmond delivered a Q2 2026 beat, raised full-year guidance, and repurchased 5.2 million shares for $100 million in the quarter. The leadership transition that followed the January 2025 passing of CEO Amit Yoran is now showing operating results, though the team still needs to prove it can re-accelerate growth. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue of $268.5 million grew 8.6% year-over-year, GAAP net income turned positive at $3.8 million, non-GAAP operating margin reached 24.7%, and unlevered free cash flow was $45.3 million. Full-year 2026 guidance was raised to revenue of $1.075 to $1.081 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $1.95 to $2.00. | High |
| Valuation | At $31.48, TENB trades at 15.55x forward EPS estimates, 3.67x TTM revenue, 13.93x book value, and about 13.6x TTM levered free cash flow. EV/EBITDA stands near 49x. The forward multiple is reasonable for a profitable cybersecurity platform but embeds continued margin expansion rather than rapid revenue acceleration. | Medium |
| Technical trend | TENB is in an uptrend under correction. The stock set a 52-week high of $43.67 in July 2026 and closed at $31.48 on July 29, 2026, about 28% below that peak. YTD return is still +33.79% and the 6-month return is +45.88%, but short-term momentum is negative with a pre-market reading near $27.79. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are revenue growth deceleration, platform competition from Qualys, Rapid7, CrowdStrike, Microsoft, and Palo Alto Networks, M&A integration complexity after the Vulcan Cyber and Apex Security acquisitions, CEO succession execution, and cyber budget cycle sensitivity. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high for company-reported financials and moderate for the current price, pre-market reading, and market-derived valuations because of delayed Yahoo Finance market data on this mid-cap name. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | TENB looks like a durable cybersecurity platform that just reached a profitability inflection and trades at a more reasonable multiple after the pullback, but it is not a high-conviction entry unless the investor believes growth can re-accelerate from the high single digits while margins keep expanding. | Medium-low |
TENB AI stock forecast
The TENB AI stock forecast uses the $31.48 close of July 29, 2026, the raised full-year 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance of $1.95 to $2.00, and a three-year scenario framework. The audited model produced a bearish area near $31, a base area near $53, and a bullish area near $76 before buybacks, dilution, or multiple changes beyond the stated assumptions. These are scenario ranges, not promises, and the bearish case sits close to the current price, which reflects how much the market has already de-rated growth expectations.
$65 to $85
More likely if revenue growth re-accelerates above 12%, Tenable One, Hexa AI, and AI security products gain meaningful share, GAAP profitability scales with non-GAAP operating margin above 25%, free cash flow exceeds $300 million, and the market re-rates TENB toward a 22 to 25x forward earnings multiple.
$48 to $60
More likely if revenue grows at a high single-digit to low double-digit rate in line with the raised guidance, non-GAAP operating margin holds near 24%, GAAP profitability continues, free cash flow conversion stays strong, and a forward earnings multiple near 20x persists.
$24 to $34
More likely if revenue growth slips below 6% because the second-half outlook slows further, M&A integration weighs on margins, platform competition from Qualys or Microsoft intensifies, or the stock re-rates toward a 12 to 14x forward earnings multiple as the pre-market reaction already suggests.
TENB AI technical analysis
TENB AI technical analysis shows a strong rally that has corrected sharply. As of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, Yahoo Finance reported the July 29, 2026 close at $31.48 with a 52-week range of $15.73 to $43.67 and a pre-market indication near $27.79. YTD return of 33.79% and a 6-month return of 45.88% reflect the broader uptrend, while the drop from the July peak of $43.67 and the negative post-earnings momentum put the near-term trend under pressure.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $31.48 | July 29, 2026 close from Yahoo Finance. A pre-market reading near $27.79 was indicated on August 3, 2026. |
| 52-week high | $43.67 | Set in July 2026. A close back above $38 to $40 would be needed before the high becomes the next target. |
| Near resistance | $34 to $36 | The breakdown zone where the stock failed after the July peak. Reclaiming this area would stabilize the correction. |
| Immediate support | $30 to $31 | The July 29 close and a round-number zone. The first area buyers have defended since the pullback began. |
| Next support | $27 to $28 | The pre-market low area near $27.79 on August 3, 2026. A close below this level would extend the correction. |
| Major support | $24 to $26 | The early 2026 consolidation and breakout area. This zone would be the main trend reference if the pullback deepens. |
| Moving averages | 50-day est. near $35 to $37, 200-day est. near $28 to $31 | The current price sits near or below the estimated 50-day average after the correction. The 200-day average is estimated in the support zone below. |
| Momentum | Short-term negative, medium-term positive | The 28% drop from the July peak and the negative pre-market reading broke short-term momentum. The YTD gain of 33.79% keeps the medium-term trend positive. |
| Volume | 3.69 million shares average volume | Yahoo Finance reports average volume near 3.69 million shares. Volume spikes on earnings and guidance events as seen around the July 29 release. |
| Volatility | Moderate but spiking around earnings | Beta of 0.93 suggests near-market volatility, but the stock can move 10% or more on earnings, guidance, or M&A announcements as the pre-market move shows. |
| Invalidation | Close below $28, then below $24 | A close below the pre-market low near $27.79 would confirm a deeper correction. A break below the $24 to $26 zone would challenge the structural uptrend. |
TENB AI trading strategy
The TENB AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects revenue growth, GAAP profitability, Tenable One and AI security adoption, free cash flow, the raised 2026 guidance, cybersecurity budget cycles, and technical invalidation levels.
Watch for TENB to reclaim the $34 to $36 breakdown zone on above-average volume with the next earnings update confirming that revenue growth holds in the high single digits, non-GAAP operating margin stays near 24%, and full-year guidance is delivered or raised again.
A failed attempt at $34 to $36 followed by a close below the $30 to $31 support should reduce confidence, especially if the company reports slower billings, lower remaining performance obligation growth, or weaker new customer adds.
If TENB holds the $27 to $31 support band without a fundamental deterioration in revenue growth, GAAP profitability, or free cash flow, evaluate whether the lower price offers a better risk-reward against the raised non-GAAP EPS guidance of $1.95 to $2.00.
Do not treat the pullback as a buying opportunity if the company reports slowing customer additions, guidance that points to sub-8% growth, margin compression, higher dilution, or increased competitive losses to Qualys, Microsoft, or integrated platform vendors.
Track revenue growth rate, remaining performance obligations growth, Tenable One and Hexa AI adoption, GAAP net income trajectory, non-GAAP operating margin, free cash flow, share repurchases, and the delivery of the raised 2026 revenue and EPS guidance.
Position sizing should reflect that Tenable is a now-profitable cybersecurity business at a moderate forward multiple after a sharp pullback, not a bargain. Monitor for any divergence between the stock price and the delivered growth and margin results.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Tenable to find, prioritize, and remediate security exposures across their attack surface, including vulnerabilities, cloud misconfigurations, identity risks, OT/IoT weaknesses, and AI security gaps, using the Nessus scanner and Tenable One platform.
Tenable benefits from the Nessus brand recognition, a massive installed base of more than 40,000 customers, deep vulnerability and threat content libraries, regulatory compliance integrations, and platform breadth. The moat is maintained by acquisition-driven platform expansion but faces pressure from integrated platform competitors.
The thesis fails if Tenable One adoption stalls and the company remains a slow-growing single-product vulnerability scanner, if growth keeps decelerating below the high single digits, if platform competitors bundle vulnerability management at low margin, or if the market keeps de-rating the stock because the raised outlook still implies a slower second half.
Co-CEOs Steve Vintz and Mark Thurmond delivered a Q2 2026 beat, raised full-year guidance, and bought back $100 million of stock in the quarter. The test is whether they can re-accelerate revenue growth while continuing to expand margins and integrate the Vulcan Cyber and Apex Security acquisitions.
Tenable operates at the intersection of vulnerability management, exposure management, cloud security, identity security, OT security, and the emerging AI security category. Cybersecurity spending grows with attack surface expansion, AI-driven threat velocity, and regulatory mandates, but the category also draws aggressive platform consolidation.
At $31.48, the market is pricing a modest growth trajectory with a forward P/E near 15.5x. Margin of safety improves if the stock holds the $27 to $31 support zone without a growth reset, or if revenue re-accelerates and GAAP profitability scales faster than the current multiple implies.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TENB current price | $31.48 close on July 29, 2026; pre-market near $27.79 on August 3, 2026 | Yahoo Finance quote data | August 3, 2026 |
| Market cap | $3.47 billion | Yahoo Finance market cap data | August 3, 2026 |
| Market cap verification | $3.48B calculated from $31.48 price and 110.44 million shares, 0.16% deviation | financial_rigor.py verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue | $268.5 million, up 8.6% year-over-year | Tenable Q2 2026 earnings press release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 GAAP net income | $3.8 million, GAAP diluted EPS of $0.03 | Tenable Q2 2026 earnings press release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 non-GAAP net income | $57.9 million, non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.51 | Tenable Q2 2026 earnings press release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 non-GAAP operating margin | 24.7%, up 540 basis points year-over-year | Tenable Q2 2026 earnings press release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 unlevered free cash flow | $45.3 million | Tenable Q2 2026 earnings press release | August 3, 2026 |
| Full-year 2026 revenue guidance | $1.075 billion to $1.081 billion | Tenable Q2 2026 earnings press release | August 3, 2026 |
| Full-year 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance | $1.95 to $2.00 | Tenable Q2 2026 earnings press release | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $1.02 billion | Yahoo Finance key statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM GAAP net income | -$11.77 million, diluted EPS of -$0.10 | Yahoo Finance key statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM levered free cash flow | $255.8 million | Yahoo Finance key statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash, equivalents, and short-term investments | $298.2 million at June 30, 2026 | Tenable Q2 2026 earnings press release balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Forward P/E | 15.55x | Yahoo Finance valuation measures | August 3, 2026 |
| Price to sales (TTM) | 3.67x | Yahoo Finance valuation measures | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $15.73 to $43.67 | Yahoo Finance quote data | August 3, 2026 |
| YTD total return | +33.79% | Yahoo Finance performance overview | August 3, 2026 |
| Customer count | More than 40,000 customers | Tenable Q2 2026 earnings press release | August 3, 2026 |
| Employees | 1,995 | Yahoo Finance profile | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst 1-year target | $35.40 average, range $23.00 to $50.00 | Yahoo Finance analyst insights | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation scenarios | Bullish ~$76, Base ~$53, Bearish ~$31 over 3 years | financial_rigor.py three-scenario model | August 3, 2026 |
This TENB AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong if growth, margins, guidance delivery, M&A integration, competitive dynamics, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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