Amentum Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
AMTM AI stock analysis reads Amentum Holdings as a U.S. government services contractor with meaningful nuclear, space, and defense exposure, a very large revenue base, and structurally thin margins. The analysis is not a certain price prediction. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified close was $22.20 on July 31, 2026, market capitalization was about $5.42 billion, and the stock had bounced about 12% off its 52-week low of $19.80. The key question is whether the DOE Savannah River AI data center project, NASA COSMOS award, margin expansion, and debt reduction can turn a low forward earnings multiple into a re-rating. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$22.20
Market cap
$5.42 billion
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
Low multiple contractor with AI data center optionality
Trend status
Bounced off 52-week low, trading above 50-day MA but below 200-day
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Amentum provides mission-critical engineering, technology, nuclear, and mission support services to U.S. government agencies and allied nations under long-term contracts, with high revenue visibility but structurally low margins of roughly 1% net and 7.9% adjusted EBITDA. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat comes from security clearances, incumbency on large programs, scale in nuclear and environmental work, and decades-long government relationships, but competitive bidding and budget dependency limit pricing power. | Medium-low |
| Management | Led by CEO John E. Heller with Steve Demetriou as Executive Chair, management has driven margin expansion, a record backlog of about $48 billion, and accelerated deleveraging toward a sub-3x net leverage target for fiscal year 2026. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue is large and stable at about $14.2 billion with net income near $148 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin improved 20 basis points year over year in Q2 FY26 to 7.9%, and free cash flow rebounded to $220 million in the quarter, with full year guidance of $525 to $575 million. | Medium |
| Valuation | The stock trades at roughly 8x forward earnings and 0.38x sales, which is cheap versus the defense services peer group on a forward basis, but the trailing PE of about 37x and the 46% year-over-year share dilution reflect thin GAAP earnings per share of $0.60. | Medium |
| Technical trend | AMTM bounced from the 52-week low of $19.80 to $22.20, reclaimed its 50-day moving average near $21.87, and now trades below the 200-day moving average near $26.49. RSI recovered to about 54 from oversold territory. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include government budget uncertainty, contract recompetes, thin margins, net debt of about $3.5 billion, short interest near 5.5% of shares outstanding, and the early-stage status of the DOE AI data center project. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Medium-high confidence for price, valuation, SEC filing, and contract award data. Lower confidence for forward margin trajectory and for the timing and revenue impact of the Savannah River AI data center project, which remains subject to negotiation. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low-to-medium certainty. The low forward multiple offers a potential margin of safety, but thin margins, recent dilution, and a short trading history mean the thesis still needs proof through earnings execution. | Low-to-medium |
AMTM AI stock forecast
The AMTM AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $22.20 cutoff price. It does not claim that AI can predict a specific future price. The bullish case requires margin expansion toward 8% or better adjusted EBITDA, continued defense and nuclear budget growth, and progress on the DOE AI data center project. The base case assumes steady low-margin operations. The bearish case assumes contract losses, margin compression, or slower government procurement.
$30 to $40
More likely if Amentum expands adjusted EBITDA margins toward 8% or more, wins major recompetes, secures and starts the Savannah River AI data center project, and benefits from rising U.S. defense and nuclear spending, allowing a re-rate toward 11 to 14x forward earnings.
$22 to $28
More likely if Amentum maintains current margins, wins its fair share of recompetes, and the stock trades at roughly 8 to 10x forward earnings, consistent with the current valuation range and the consensus analyst target near $31.75.
$14 to $19
More likely if key contracts are lost in recompetes, margins compress further, the government slows procurement, the DOE project does not advance, or the balance sheet becomes strained, pushing the stock toward 6 to 7x forward earnings.
AMTM AI technical analysis
AMTM AI technical analysis starts from the $22.20 close as of the July 31, 2026 data cutoff used for this August 3 static page. Public technical sources showed the stock above its 50-day moving average near $21.87 but below its 200-day moving average near $26.49, with RSI recovered to roughly 54 after a bounce from the $19.80 52-week low. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $22.20 | Latest verified close as of July 31, 2026. |
| Near support | $19.80 to $21.00 | The 52-week low zone and the recent bounce base. A break below $19.80 would set a new low. |
| Secondary support | $16.00 to $17.00 | The April 2025 all-time low area. A move to this zone would suggest significant fundamental deterioration. |
| Near resistance | $24.00 to $24.10 | The recent 50-day range high. A close above this level would strengthen the short-term recovery. |
| Key resistance | $26.40 to $26.50 | The 200-day moving average area. A close above it would be the first meaningful sign of a trend change. |
| 50-day moving average | Approximately $21.87 | AMTM reclaimed this level during the bounce off the 52-week low, a short-term positive signal. |
| 200-day moving average | Approximately $26.49 | The stock is still below its 200-day MA, so the longer-term downtrend from early 2026 is not yet reversed. |
| Momentum | RSI near 54, neutral | RSI recovered from oversold levels below 35 in July, which supports the short-term bounce but does not confirm a reversal. |
| Volume | Average volume about 1.7 to 2.1 million shares | Volume was moderate on the bounce, so the recovery lacks a strong volume confirmation yet. |
| Volatility | Beta around 0.35 (MarketBeat) | MarketBeat reports a low 5-year beta, while Yahoo lists no beta data, so volatility estimates differ across sources. |
| Invalidation | Close below $19.80 or above $26.50 | A close below the 52-week low invalidates the bounce. A close above the 200-day MA near $26.50 would signal a potential trend change. |
AMTM AI trading strategy
The AMTM AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines contract and project-award evidence, technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels.
Wait for AMTM to hold above the reclaimed 50-day moving average near $21.87, clear the $24.00 to $24.10 resistance with above-average volume, and show a higher-low structure before considering a long entry.
If AMTM breaks back below $19.80 on volume, the downtrend is accelerating. Do not attempt to catch a falling knife without clear reversal confirmation.
If AMTM pulls back toward the $21.00 to $21.50 zone and shows a bullish reversal candlestick pattern with volume support, a mean-reversion trade toward $24 could be considered.
If AMTM closes below $19.80, the mean-reversion thesis is invalidated. Position size must account for the risk of a gap down through support.
Track the August 11, 2026 Q3 FY26 earnings call for adjusted EBITDA margin, free cash flow, and net leverage, plus progress on the DOE Savannah River AI data center negotiation and major recompete outcomes.
Reduce exposure if adjusted EBITDA margin stalls below 8%, key contracts are lost, the DOE project stalls, or management cuts fiscal year guidance.
Investment research summary
Amentum is a government services contractor that provides engineering, technology, nuclear, environmental, and mission support solutions primarily to U.S. defense, space, and civilian agencies under long-term contracts. Customers pay for reliability and mission-critical execution, not for proprietary products.
The moat is built on security clearances, incumbency on large-scale government programs such as nuclear remediation and space operations, and relationships built over decades as part of AECOM and Jacobs. However, contracts are competitively bid, and adjusted EBITDA margins of about 7.9% leave little pricing power.
The thesis can fail if government budgets tighten, key contracts are lost in recompetes, margins stay structurally low, the $3.5 billion net debt position becomes a drag as interest costs matter, or the Savannah River AI data center project never advances beyond negotiation.
John E. Heller leads a team focused on margin expansion, contract growth, and deleveraging. The company cut its cost of debt by about 50 basis points through refinancing, issued a $1.4 billion Term Loan A, and reaffirmed fiscal year 2026 guidance with net leverage targeted below 3x by year end.
U.S. defense spending remains elevated with focus on space, missile defense, readiness, and counter-UAS, while AI-driven electricity demand is pushing new data center and nuclear development. Amentum is positioned in these areas, including the DOE Savannah River site lease negotiation, but budget cycles create uncertainty.
At roughly 8x forward earnings, 0.38x sales, and about 9x EV/EBITDA, AMTM appears cheap on a forward basis. However, the trailing PE of about 37x and 46% year-over-year share dilution reveal thin current earnings per share of $0.60. The margin of safety depends on whether the company converts its large revenue base into meaningfully higher profits.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMTM price | $22.20 close on July 31, 2026 | Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis quote snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $5.42 billion | Yahoo Finance, cross-checked with StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $8.92 billion | Yahoo Finance statistics and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $14.2 billion | Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis financials | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $148 million | Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis financials | August 3, 2026 |
| EPS (TTM) | $0.60 | Yahoo Finance statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Total cash | $428 million (most recent quarter) | Yahoo Finance balance sheet and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Total debt / net debt | About $3.93 billion total debt / $3.5 billion net debt | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Free cash flow (TTM) | $439 million (StockAnalysis) / $655.5 million levered (Yahoo) | StockAnalysis cash flow; Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Trailing PE / Forward PE | 37.03 / 8.78 (StockAnalysis); 8.05 forward (Yahoo) | StockAnalysis statistics; Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Price / Sales and EV/EBITDA | 0.38 P/S, about 9.0 EV/EBITDA | Yahoo Finance statistics and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 FY26 adjusted EBITDA | $275 million, 7.9% margin (+20 bps YoY) | Amentum Q2 FY26 earnings call, May 12, 2026 | August 3, 2026 |
| Backlog | About $48 billion, record, +7% YoY; funded backlog $6.9 billion, +20% YoY | Amentum Q2 FY26 earnings call, May 12, 2026 | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy, average target $31.75 (range $22 to $40) | StockAnalysis forecast; MarketBeat | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | About 5.5% of shares outstanding, 8.8% of float (StockAnalysis) | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
This AMTM AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong. The DOE Savannah River project and other contract awards remain subject to negotiation, funding, and approvals.
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