Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. research snapshot
ALNY AI stock analysis currently reads Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. as a commercial stage RNAi therapeutics leader with fast AMVUTTRA driven revenue growth, first full year GAAP profitability in 2025, and a deep late stage pipeline, reset against a $200 million cut to 2026 TTR guidance and a sharp post earnings selloff. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, ALNY traded near $205.52 with an implied market capitalization of about $27.50 billion and an AI score near 58 out of 100. This page uses scenarios, technical levels, and source backed facts. It is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$205.52
Market cap
$27.50 billion
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
High-growth TTR leader, cheaper after reset
Trend status
Fundamentals strong, technical trend broken after the Q2 2026 selloff
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Alnylam sells RNAi medicines led by AMVUTTRA and ONPATTRO in TTR amyloidosis, plus GIVLAARI and OXLUMO in rare diseases, with collaboration and royalty revenue adding another stream. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from RNAi science, delivery know how, patents, clinical evidence, specialist relationships, manufacturing scale, and a growing commercial base in TTR disease. | Medium-high |
| Management | Yvonne Greenstreet and the team executed a strong AMVUTTRA ATTR-CM launch and the profitability turn, but the 2026 guidance reset is a launch modeling lesson and the next test is disciplined reinvestment. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose to $3.714 billion with first full year GAAP net income of $313.7 million, Q2 2026 total net product revenue reached $1.172 billion up 74%, and 2026 guidance was reset to $4.7 billion to $5.1 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $205.52, ALNY traded near 36.6x TTM GAAP EPS, 24.4x forward earnings, 33.5x TTM free cash flow, and about 5.7x TTM revenue, cheaper than before the reset but still above a mature biotech. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | ChartMill scored ALNY 0 out of 10 technically at the July 31, 2026 close, with price below every declining moving average, support near the $197.81 to $200 area, and resistance near $279 to $281. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are AMVUTTRA concentration, second line demand normalization, ATTR-CM competition, clinical readout volatility, pricing and discount scrutiny, and the rich valuation that remains after the drop. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive research and calculations. Lower for exact price outcomes because biotech stocks move around trial, payer, regulatory, and competition news. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. ALNY has a valuable RNAi platform, but the stock needs second line demand to stabilize, sustained product growth, and pipeline execution to justify the multiple after the reset. | Medium-low |
ALNY AI stock forecast
The ALNY AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $205.52 quote and a forward earnings reference near $8.43 implied by the 24.4x forward P/E. The audited three-year framework produced a bullish area near $437, a base area near $302, and a bearish area near $202 before any future dilution, acquisitions, or major clinical events.
$420 to $460
More likely if first line AMVUTTRA growth re-accelerates, second line demand stabilizes, total 2026 product revenue lands near or above the $4.7 billion to $5.1 billion guidance range, nucresiran and zilebesiran data de-risk the pipeline, and tafamidis loss of exclusivity stays on track for 2031.
$290 to $320
More likely if revenue growth stays strong but moderates as second line demand stays normalized, the market values ALNY closer to a mature profitable biotech, and investors wait for TRITON-CM and other pipeline readouts.
$190 to $215
More likely if AMVUTTRA growth slows further, payer pressure cuts net price, guidance is cut again, TRITON-CM results disappoint, or the stock rerates toward a lower growth earnings multiple.
ALNY AI technical analysis
ALNY AI technical analysis is bearish after the Q2 2026 earnings reset. ChartMill scored ALNY 0 out of 10 as of the July 31, 2026 close, with price at $205.52 below the declining SMA20 at $279.24, SMA50 at $288.13, and SMA200 at $349.29. RSI near 23.54 is oversold, and no support zone is detected above the 52 week low near $197.81.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $205.52 | StockAnalysis real time snapshot used for the July 31, 2026 close and market cap math. |
| 52-week range | $197.81 to $495.55 | ChartMill and StockAnalysis both show ALNY trading near the lower end of this range. |
| Near support | $197.81 to $200 | ChartMill detected no support zone, so the 52 week low area near $197.81 is the closest downside reference. |
| Moving averages | Below all key averages | SMA5 near $252.89, SMA10 near $261.60, SMA20 near $279.24, SMA50 near $288.13, SMA100 near $299.86, and SMA200 near $349.29, all declining. |
| Resistance | $279 to $281 | ChartMill listed a resistance zone from $279.24 to $280.89 formed by multiple trend lines and moving averages across time frames. |
| Higher resistance | $293 to $306, then $331 | ChartMill listed a weekly trend line near $293.40, a daily trend line near $306.18, and horizontal resistance near $330.87. |
| Momentum | Oversold, not reversed | Daily RSI near 23.54 and weekly RSI near 24.86 are oversold, but MACD at negative 6.93 is falling and still below zero. |
| Volume | Heavy selling volume | Average volume is about 1.58 million shares per day, with volume spiking sharply on the July 30 earnings driven drop. |
| Volatility | High | ATR around 8.93% of price, driven by AMVUTTRA demand, nucresiran, zilebesiran, and drug pricing news. |
| Invalidation | Close below $197.81 | A close below the 52 week low near $197.81 would open further downside. A reclaim above $279 to $281 would be needed to start repairing the trend. |
ALNY AI trading strategy
The ALNY AI trading strategy is a rules based framework for a high growth biotechnology stock with product concentration, pipeline optionality, and event risk. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live quotes, filings, position sizing, and clinical or regulatory event checks.
Watch for ALNY to stabilize above the $197.81 to $200 area and reclaim the declining moving averages, with price moving back above the $279 to $281 resistance zone on confirming volume and no negative product or trial news.
A close below $197.81 should invalidate any long side setup. Until the trend repairs, downside risk stays elevated and position size should stay small.
If ALNY stays oversold near the $200 area without a new clinical, payer, or competitive problem, compare the price move with Q2 2026 net product revenue growth of 74%, cash generation, and the reset 2026 guidance.
Do not treat every oversold print as a reversal. Biotech support levels can fail fast when clinical readouts, reimbursement, or product concentration risks change.
Track AMVUTTRA and ONPATTRO TTR revenue, GIVLAARI, OXLUMO, Leqvio royalties, the reset 2026 product revenue guidance of $4.7 billion to $5.1 billion, nucresiran, zilebesiran, ALN-6400, cash and investments, debt, and share dilution.
Reduce confidence if second line demand keeps falling, guidance is cut again, or valuation depends mainly on a premium multiple rather than durable TTR growth and successful pipeline readouts.
Investment research summary
Alnylam turns RNA interference science, delivery chemistry, clinical proof, regulatory approvals, and rare disease commercial execution into medicine revenue, led by AMVUTTRA in TTR amyloidosis where gene silencing changes outcomes.
The moat is strongest where RNAi intellectual property, GalNAc delivery, long dosing intervals, specialist trust, manufacturing know how, and clinical evidence reinforce each other. It narrows if rivals match efficacy, convenience, access, or price.
The thesis fails if AMVUTTRA growth slows more than expected, second line demand keeps normalizing, ATTR-CM competition or tafamidis generic timing shifts, payer pressure reduces net revenue, clinical programs disappoint, or valuation compresses before earnings scale.
Management built a profitable commercial company and executed a strong AMVUTTRA launch, but the 2026 guidance reset is a modeling lesson. The next test is capital allocation across internal R&D, manufacturing capacity, partnerships, and shareholder dilution.
RNAi sits inside a long term shift toward genetic medicines and precision therapies. The CARDIO-TTRansform failure and a tafamidis loss of exclusivity expected in 2031 support AMVUTTRA, but adoption depends on durable outcomes, safety, access, and competition from other silencers, stabilizers, and gene based approaches.
At $205.52, ALNY trades near 36.6x TTM GAAP EPS, 24.4x forward earnings, and 5.7x TTM revenue, cheaper than before the reset but still above a mature biotech. Margin of safety improves if the guidance floor holds and late stage data expands the addressable market.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ALNY price | $205.52 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis real time snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $27.50 billion, verified as $205.52 x 133.81 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 total revenues | $1.290948 billion, up 67% year over year | Alnylam Q2 2026 earnings release | July 30, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 total net product revenue | $1.172109 billion, up 74% year over year | Alnylam Q2 2026 earnings release | July 30, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 total TTR net product revenue | $1.030223 billion, up 89% year over year, with AMVUTTRA at $1.011762 billion up 106% | Alnylam Q2 2026 earnings release | July 30, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 GAAP and non-GAAP diluted EPS | GAAP $1.21 and non-GAAP $1.84 | Alnylam Q2 2026 earnings release | July 30, 2026 |
| Cash and marketable securities | $3.3 billion as of June 30, 2026, up from $2.9 billion at year end 2025 | Alnylam Q2 2026 earnings release | July 30, 2026 |
| Updated 2026 product revenue guidance | Total TTR $4.2 billion to $4.5 billion; total net product revenue $4.7 billion to $5.1 billion | Alnylam Q2 2026 earnings release | July 30, 2026 |
| PE and forward PE | 36.57x trailing and 24.38x forward | StockAnalysis valuation ratios | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical rating and key levels | ChartMill 0/10 rating, RSI near 23.54, support near $197.81 to $200, resistance near $279 to $281 | ChartMill technical analysis | July 31, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating with an average 12 month price target near $386 | StockAnalysis analyst summary | August 2, 2026 |
This ALNY AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong if financial results, clinical data, regulation, competition, interest rates, or market sentiment change.
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