Amgen Inc. research snapshot
AMGN AI stock analysis currently reads Amgen Inc. as a large-cap biotechnology company with durable biologics franchises, a broad rare disease and oncology portfolio, rising revenue, heavy post-Horizon debt, and meaningful patent, reimbursement, and regulatory risk. At the July 31, 2026 close, AMGN traded at $385.16 with an implied market capitalization of about $207.87 billion. Q1 2026 revenue rose 6% to $8.6 billion, but Prolia, Xgeva, and Enbrel all fell sharply while the FDA proposed withdrawing TAVNEOS approval. This page uses scenarios, technical levels, and source-backed facts. It is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$385.16
Market cap
$207.87 billion
AI score
50 / 100
Rating
High-quality biotech, price above consensus targets
Trend status
Price above all major moving averages with a neutral technical score
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Amgen sells biologic and specialty medicines across general medicine, rare disease, inflammation, oncology, and established products. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from biologics know-how, patents, clinical evidence, physician trust, manufacturing scale, reimbursement access, and a global commercial base. | Medium-high |
| Management | Robert A. Bradway and the team should be judged by Horizon integration, debt reduction, MariTide execution, capital allocation, and replacement of aging franchises. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 10% to $36.751 billion, TTM revenue reached $37.220 billion, and Q1 2026 revenue rose 6% to $8.6 billion with free cash flow of $1.5 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $385.16, AMGN traded near 17.2x consensus 2026 non-GAAP EPS and about 24.2x trailing free cash flow per share, roughly 7% above the average analyst price target. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Price was above the 8-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, but Financhill still rated AMGN Sell at a score of 50, so momentum is bullish but the composite signal is neutral. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are Prolia and Xgeva biosimilar erosion, Enbrel price pressure under the Inflation Reduction Act, the TAVNEOS withdrawal proposal, heavy debt, and clinical or regulatory setbacks. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive research and calculations. Lower for exact price outcomes because biotech stocks move around trial, patent, reimbursement, and regulatory events. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. AMGN is high quality, but a buy decision depends on price discipline and comfort with patent-cycle, debt, and pipeline risk. | Medium |
AMGN AI stock forecast
The AMGN AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $385.16 quote and consensus 2026 non-GAAP EPS of about $22.35. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $274, a base area near $415, and a bullish area near $563 before dividends.
$550 to $575
More likely if Repatha, EVENITY, Tepezza, UPLIZNA, BLINCYTO, and IMDELLTRA keep growing, MariTide Phase 3 evidence strengthens, biosimilar erosion stays contained, debt falls, and investors pay about 20x forward non-GAAP earnings.
$405 to $425
More likely if non-GAAP EPS compounds around low single digits to mid single digits, the portfolio offsets aging products, and the market values Amgen near a mid-teens earnings multiple.
$265 to $285
More likely if Prolia, Xgeva, or Enbrel erosion is worse than expected, MariTide disappoints, the TAVNEOS withdrawal proposal hurts rare disease revenue, payer pressure reduces price, debt limits flexibility, or the market compresses AMGN toward a low-teens multiple.
AMGN AI technical analysis
AMGN AI technical analysis is constructive but mixed as of the August 2, 2026 cutoff. Financhill listed AMGN near $385.16, above its 8-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, while assigning a score of 50 and a Sell rating.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $385.16 | Close as of July 31, 2026, used for quote and market cap math in this research. |
| Near support | $380 to $382 | The 8-day EMA near $381.27 and 8-day SMA near $380.42 are the closest short-term moving-average supports. |
| Secondary support | $371 to $373 | The 20-day EMA near $372.42 is the next support area if the first level fails. |
| Intermediate support | $360 to $362 | The 50-day EMA near $361.12 helps define whether the medium-term trend remains intact. |
| Long-term support | $342 to $344 | The 200-day EMA near $342.19 and 200-day SMA near $343.83 are the major trend references. |
| Resistance | $398 | Financhill listed a 52-week high near $398.00, which is the visible upside level to monitor. |
| Momentum | RSI 64.6, MACD +8.55 | RSI near 64.6 is approaching overbought and MACD is positive, but the composite Financhill score of 50 keeps the signal mixed. |
| Volume | Liquid large-cap biotech trading | Volume should be compared with earnings, FDA, clinical data, and reimbursement news because biotech volume can spike around event risk. |
| Volatility | Event-sensitive large-cap biotech volatility | Expect larger moves around the August 4, 2026 Q2 earnings report, MariTide data, TAVNEOS proceedings, biosimilar updates, and drug pricing headlines. |
| Invalidation | Close below $361, then $343 | A break below the 50-day EMA would weaken the swing setup. A decisive break below the 200-day average would challenge the long-term trend. |
AMGN AI trading strategy
The AMGN AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a mature biotech with cash flow, debt, patent-cycle risk, and pipeline optionality. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live quotes, filings, position sizing, and clinical or regulatory event checks.
Watch for AMGN to hold above the 50-day EMA near $361 and build toward the $398 52-week high with confirming volume and no new negative drug, FDA, or guidance news.
A close below the $360 to $362 area should invalidate the swing setup. A close below the 200-day average near $343 should force a full thesis review.
If AMGN pulls back toward the 20-day or 50-day EMA without a new patent, trial, FDA, or guidance problem, compare the price drop with Q1 product trends and cash flow evidence.
Do not average down through drug-specific bad news. Patent, clinical, reimbursement, and regulatory events can turn a technical support level into a fundamental break.
Track Repatha, EVENITY, Tepezza, UPLIZNA, BLINCYTO, IMDELLTRA, Prolia, Xgeva, Enbrel, TAVNEOS, MariTide Phase 3 progress, debt outstanding, free cash flow, dividend coverage, and 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance.
Reduce confidence if EPS growth depends mainly on multiple expansion, cost cuts, or adjustments rather than product-level growth and debt reduction.
Investment research summary
Amgen converts biologic science, clinical proof, regulatory approvals, manufacturing reliability, and payer access into recurring medicine revenue for serious diseases.
The moat is strongest where biologics expertise, patents, high-quality trial data, manufacturing scale, prescriber familiarity, and payer relationships reinforce each other. It narrows when exclusivity expires or a rival or biosimilar offers better efficacy, safety, convenience, or price.
The thesis fails if mature franchises erode faster than new products grow, if MariTide or other late-stage programs disappoint, if IRA and payer pressure cut net prices, if the TAVNEOS withdrawal proceeds, or if Horizon-related debt absorbs too much owner cash.
Management has built a broad biotech portfolio and integrated Horizon assets, but future judgment rests on debt reduction, disciplined buybacks, dividend coverage, and the return on large R&D and acquisition spending.
Biotech benefits from aging populations, biologics innovation, obesity and cardiometabolic demand, oncology progress, and rare disease treatment, but it faces patent cliffs, biosimilars, price controls, and binary clinical outcomes.
AMGN trades above the average analyst price target, so it is not priced as a broken patent-cliff story. Margin of safety depends on whether 2026 and 2027 earnings can absorb competition, debt service, and pipeline uncertainty without a lower valuation multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMGN price | $385.16 | Market quote snapshot and market cap math | July 31, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $207.87 billion, verified as $385.16 x 539.71 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 31, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $36.751 billion | Amgen FY2025 release, Macrotrends, and StockAnalysis | August 1, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $7.711 billion | Amgen FY2025 release and Macrotrends cross-check | August 1, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and non-GAAP EPS | $8.6 billion revenue, $5.15 non-GAAP diluted EPS | Amgen Q1 2026 earnings release | August 1, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 cash and debt | $12.0 billion cash and cash equivalents, $57.3 billion debt outstanding, about $45.3 billion net debt | Amgen Q1 2026 release and balance sheet snapshot | August 1, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | $37.1 billion to $38.5 billion revenue, $21.70 to $23.10 non-GAAP EPS | Amgen Q1 2026 results release | August 1, 2026 |
| Technical moving averages | 8-day EMA $381.27, 20-day EMA $372.42, 50-day EMA $361.12, 200-day EMA $342.19, 200-day SMA $343.83 | Financhill AMGN technical analysis | July 30, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $269.77 to $398.00 | Financhill AMGN technical analysis | July 30, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus price target | Buy consensus, average target $357.03, range $215 to $427 | S&P Global via StockAnalysis | July 29, 2026 |
| Scenario valuation audit | Bear $273.5, base $415.2, bull $563.1 from financial_rigor.py three-scenario model | financial_rigor.py three-scenario model | August 2, 2026 |
This AMGN AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecasts are scenario-based estimates from available public data and may be wrong. Always verify live prices, filings, tax considerations, and risk limits before making investment decisions.
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