Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated research snapshot
VRTX AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads Vertex Pharmaceuticals as a high-quality, diversified biotechnology company whose cystic fibrosis franchise still drives most revenue while CASGEVY, JOURNAVX, a budding renal franchise, and a newly added endocrinology pillar provide growth optionality. The stock closed at $477.10 on July 31, 2026 with a market capitalization near $121.09 billion, re-verified as $477.10 times 253.81 million shares with a 0.00% deviation. Q1 2026 revenue rose 8% year over year to $2.99 billion, GAAP net income was $1.03 billion, non-GAAP EPS was $4.47, and cash plus investments totaled about $13.0 billion at March 31, 2026. On July 6, 2026 Vertex agreed to acquire Crinetics for $85 per share in cash, about $10 billion in equity value, adding the endocrine assets PALSONIFY and atumelnant with combined peak sales potential of more than $5 billion. The stock trades near 28.3x trailing EPS and 25.1x forward EPS, and Q2 2026 results are scheduled for August 3, 2026, after this cutoff. This VRTX AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction, and the page is for information only, not investment advice.
Current price
$477.10 at the July 31, 2026 close
Market cap
$121.09 billion
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
High-quality diversified biotech at a premium multiple, in a short-term pullback after the Crinetics deal
Trend status
Medium-term uptrend above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages with a short-term pullback below the 5-day and 20-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Vertex monetizes rare disease biology through high-margin approved medicines, with CF still the cash engine and newer franchises in gene therapy, acute pain, renal disease, and now endocrine disease intended to diversify growth. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from CFTR modulator leadership, patents, biology-specific discovery capability, regulatory experience, payer and physician trust, and a pipeline built around causal human biology. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Reshma Kewalramani has pushed Vertex beyond CF into CASGEVY, JOURNAVX, povetacicept, and now the Crinetics acquisition, but capital allocation must prove that large internal and M&A spending can earn attractive returns. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 revenue rose 8% to $2.99 billion, GAAP net income was $1.03 billion, non-GAAP operating income reached $1.31 billion, and cash plus investments stood at about $13.0 billion at March 31, 2026. | High |
| Valuation | At $477.10, VRTX traded near 28.3x trailing EPS, 6.26x book value, 32.6x free cash flow per share, 9.91x sales per share, and a 3.06% free cash flow yield in the audited model, a premium for durability and optionality. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock closed above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages but below the 5-day and 20-day moving averages after a pullback, making the setup constructive on the medium term but weak on the short term ahead of August 3 earnings. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are CF concentration, payer and drug pricing pressure, clinical and FDA setbacks, slow CASGEVY or JOURNAVX adoption, manufacturing issues, Crinetics integration and financing, and valuation compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high because official filings and earnings releases are current and cross-checked with SEC EDGAR XBRL and third-party market data. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | VRTX looks like a high-quality biotech compounder, but not a low-risk bargain because the current price still depends on durable CF cash flow and multiple non-CF programs converting into durable revenue. | Medium |
VRTX AI stock forecast
The VRTX AI stock forecast uses the July 31, 2026 close of $477.10, the FY2026 consensus non-GAAP EPS estimate of $18.98, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The financial_rigor.py model produced a bearish area near $403, a base area near $632, and a bullish area near $787 before dividends, future repurchases, Crinetics closing effects, pipeline outcomes, or multiple changes. These are scenario ranges, not promises.
$760 to $810
More likely if CF revenue remains durable, ALYFTREK label expansion adds patients, CASGEVY and JOURNAVX adoption strengthens, povetacicept advances in renal disease, Crinetics closes on schedule and scales PALSONIFY and atumelnant, and investors hold a 25x to 30x forward multiple.
$610 to $650
More likely if EPS compounds near 10% annually, 2026 revenue lands near the $12.95 billion to $13.1 billion guidance range, non-CF products exceed $500 million, the Crinetics deal closes in Q3 2026, and VRTX trades near 25x forward earnings.
$400 to $420
More likely if CF growth slows faster than expected, non-CF launches disappoint, drug pricing pressure rises, trial data miss, Crinetics integration or financing strains the balance sheet, or the market compresses VRTX toward about 20x earnings.
VRTX AI technical analysis
VRTX AI technical analysis is mixed as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $477.10 on July 31, 2026, below the 5-day moving average near $482.30 and the 20-day moving average near $486.73 after a pullback, but above the 50-day moving average near $468.30, the 100-day near $456.01, and the 200-day near $452.93. Barchart showed 14-day RSI near 48.18 and 14-day ADX near 17.18, with 20-day historic volatility near 23.39%.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $477.10 | July 31, 2026 close, the reference used for market cap and valuation math. |
| Immediate support | $468 to $470 | The 50-day moving average near $468.30 is the first support zone from the StockAnalysis and Barchart snapshots. |
| Next support | $452 to $456 | The 200-day moving average near $452.93 and the 100-day near $456.01 form a support cluster under the pullback. |
| Near resistance | $482 to $487 | The 5-day moving average near $482.30 and the 20-day near $486.73 are the first upside tests after the pullback. |
| Upper resistance | $500 to $533 | The round $500 level and the 52-week high near $533.67 mark the next visible upside references. |
| Moving averages | 5-day near $482, 20-day near $487, 50-day near $468, 100-day near $456, 200-day near $453 | Price above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day supports the medium-term trend, while price below the 5-day and 20-day shows a short-term pause. |
| Momentum | RSI near 48 with ADX near 17 | Barchart listed 14-day RSI near 48.18, neutral, and 14-day ADX near 17.18, which signals a weak trend and a need for confirmation. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 1.42 million shares | StockAnalysis listed 20-day average volume near 1.42 million shares and Barchart near 1.45 million, so breakouts should be judged against above-average volume and earnings news flow. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.29, event risk high | StockAnalysis listed low market beta, but biotech-specific FDA, clinical, reimbursement, M&A, and August 3 earnings events can still move VRTX sharply. |
| Invalidation | Close below $468, then below $453 | A close below the 50-day area weakens the rebound. A break below the 200-day zone near $453 would force a broader trend review. |
VRTX AI trading strategy
The VRTX AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects chart levels with CF revenue durability, ALYFTREK and CASGEVY and JOURNAVX adoption, povetacicept progress, Crinetics closing and integration, cash generation, and valuation discipline.
Watch for VRTX to hold the $468 to $470 support area and reclaim the $482 to $487 zone on stronger volume while the August 3 Q2 2026 report confirms 2026 guidance, CF stability, and non-CF launch progress.
A failed rebound followed by a close below the 50-day area should reduce setup confidence, especially if management commentary points to slower non-CF adoption, higher launch spending, or Crinetics integration concerns.
If VRTX pulls back toward the $452 to $468 zone without a cut to revenue guidance or a material clinical setback, compare the new price with the verified 28.3x trailing EPS, 32.6x free cash flow, and 9.91x sales references.
Do not treat a lower price as enough if drug pricing pressure, FDA delays, trial failures, or Crinetics deal and financing risk changes the underlying cash-flow outlook.
Track total revenue, CF product revenue, ALYFTREK uptake, CASGEVY patients initiated, JOURNAVX prescriptions and formulary access, povetacicept milestones, Crinetics closing and integration, R&D spend, operating cash flow, share count, and cash and investments.
Position sizing should reflect that Vertex is financially strong, but still exposed to clinical binary risk, regulatory timing, drug pricing, and large M&A execution.
Investment research summary
Customers and payers fund Vertex because its medicines target serious diseases with clear biology, high unmet need, and in CF a rare franchise that treats the underlying cause for most eligible patients.
The moat is strongest in CFTR science, patents, clinical and regulatory experience, physician trust, payer access, manufacturing capability, and a pipeline built around causal human biology. It narrows if competitors match efficacy, patents expire, or payers force price concessions.
The thesis fails if CF cash flows fade faster than expected, CASGEVY or JOURNAVX remain niche products, povetacicept or other late-stage programs fail, Crinetics assets miss peak sales expectations, or the market stops paying a premium for biotech durability.
Reshma Kewalramani has moved Vertex from a CF-centered company toward a multi-franchise rare disease platform. The next test is whether internal pipeline spending and the roughly $10 billion Crinetics acquisition convert into returns without diluting the quality of the core franchise.
Biotech benefits from genetics, precision medicine, rare disease pricing, gene editing, non-opioid pain innovation, renal research, and now specialty endocrinology. The countertrend is tougher reimbursement, political scrutiny on drug prices, clinical trial risk, and expensive business development.
VRTX is valued as a durable rare disease leader, not as a distressed biotech. The margin of safety is moderate because the stock already prices in CF durability, non-CF growth, successful pipeline conversion, and Crinetics execution.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $477.10 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis.com VRTX quote | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $121.09B, verified as $477.10 x 253.81M shares with 0.00% deviation | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $2.9869B total revenue, up 8% year over year | SEC EDGAR XBRL and Vertex Q1 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 GAAP net income | $1.0314B GAAP net income and $4.02 diluted EPS | SEC EDGAR XBRL and Vertex Q1 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 non-GAAP EPS | $4.47 non-GAAP diluted EPS | Vertex Q1 2026 earnings call | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and investments | About $13.0B at March 31, 2026, composed of $5.493B cash, $1.754B short-term investments, and $5.750B long-term investments | Vertex Q1 2026 results and StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Total debt | $1.987B as of March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $12.001B, cross-checked with StockAnalysis.com | Vertex FY2025 results | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 GAAP net income | $3.953B GAAP net income and $15.32 diluted EPS | SEC EDGAR XBRL and StockAnalysis.com | August 2, 2026 |
| 2026 revenue guidance | $12.95B to $13.1B total revenue, 8% to 9% growth | Vertex Q1 2026 earnings call | August 2, 2026 |
| Crinetics acquisition | $85.00 per share cash offer, about $10B equity value, expected Q3 2026 close, over $5B combined peak sales potential, accretive to operating income by 2029 | Vertex Crinetics acquisition announcement and call | August 2, 2026 |
| CASGEVY expanded FDA approval | Approved July 1, 2026 for people ages 2 years and older with SCD or TDT | Vertex press release via Business Wire | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $554.91 across 28 analysts, low $350, median $570, high $652 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 18 Strong Buy, 4 Buy, 4 Hold, 1 Sell, 1 Strong Sell out of 28 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical moving averages | 5-day $482.30, 20-day $486.73, 50-day $468.30, 100-day $456.01, 200-day $452.93 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 2, 2026 |
| Momentum and volume | 14-day RSI near 48.18, 14-day ADX near 17.18, 20-day average volume near 1.42 million shares | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 2, 2026 |
| Short interest | 4.99 million shares short, 1.96% of shares outstanding, 2.45 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 28.30x PE, 6.26x PB, 32.63x P/FCF, 9.91x PS, 3.06% FCF yield | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Forward estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate $13.05B with EPS $18.98, FY2027 revenue $14.36B with EPS $21.34 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | August 2, 2026 |
This VRTX AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and may be wrong if revenue, margins, clinical data, FDA decisions, reimbursement policy, Crinetics integration, or market valuation changes. Q2 2026 financial results are scheduled for August 3, 2026 and could change the picture quickly.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
