Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. research snapshot
YMM AI stock analysis currently reads Full Truck Alliance as a scaled digital freight marketplace connecting shippers and truckers in China. The platform facilitated 236.3 million fulfilled orders in 2025, while transaction-service revenue grew 38.2% to RMB5.32 billion. The latest verified regular-session close was $8.57 on July 10, 2026, with a calculated market capitalization of about $8.89 billion, a trailing P/E near 14.90x, a price-to-book ratio near 1.54x, and a dividend yield near 3.97%. The YMM AI stock forecast depends on order growth, transaction-service penetration, credit quality, regulation, and whether AI improves logistics efficiency without adding material execution risk. This page is informational research only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$8.57 close on July 10, 2026
Market cap
$8.89 billion calculated from 20.751 billion ordinary shares and a 20:1 ADS ratio
AI score
65 / 100
Rating
Profitable digital freight platform with network effects and cash returns, offset by China freight-cycle, credit, regulatory, and VIE risk
Trend status
Short-term recovery attempt above the 50-day average, but still below the 200-day average
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Full Truck Alliance connects millions of shippers and truckers, monetizing freight listing, brokerage, transaction services, and value-added products. The 2025 platform handled 236.3 million fulfilled orders and 3.14 million average monthly active shippers. | High |
| Moat | The moat is a data-rich two-sided network, route and price information, user trust, matching technology, and operating history. The network is meaningful, but truckers and shippers can multi-home, so switching costs are not absolute. | Medium-high |
| Management | Founder, chairman, and CEO Peter Hui Zhang has built the platform since the Yunmanman and Huochebang merger, while the company has increased transaction monetization and approved a long-term shareholder-return plan. His 77.2% voting power is both alignment and key-person risk. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 11.1% to RMB12.49 billion and GAAP net income rose 42.8% to RMB4.46 billion. Q1 2026 revenue rose 5.5%, but GAAP net income and adjusted net income declined year over year while fulfilled orders rose 14.3%. | High |
| Valuation | At $8.57, the verified market-data inputs imply about 14.90x TTM earnings, 1.54x book value, 10.58x free cash flow, 9.45% FCF yield, and 3.97% dividend yield. The discount can reflect China, governance, credit, and growth-quality risk. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 10 close was just above the cited 50-day moving average of $8.51 but below the 200-day average of $10.07. RSI near 54.82 is neutral, and volume was below the cited 20-day average, so confirmation remains incomplete. | Medium |
| Risk level | The main risks are China road-freight demand, competition and pricing, credit losses, local-government grant dependence in brokerage, cybersecurity and data regulation, VIE enforceability, founder control, and RMB to USD translation. | High |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because the main operating and financial facts reconcile across company filings and StockAnalysis, with price and market-cap checks from independent market sources. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The business quality case is stronger than a simple commodity freight broker, but the investment case needs proof that rising transaction-service penetration can offset credit, regulation, and low switching-cost risks. | Medium |
YMM AI stock forecast
The YMM AI stock forecast uses scenario math rather than a guaranteed price target. Using the $8.57 July 10, 2026 close, a TTM EPS input of $0.575, three years, and the Pineify financial_rigor.py assumptions of 15% / 10% / 3% annual EPS growth with 18x / 15x / 11x terminal P/E, the mechanical outputs are about $15.7, $11.5, and $6.9. The forecast is most sensitive to transaction-service growth, fulfilled orders, credit losses, regulation, and the multiple investors assign to China platform businesses.
$14 to $17
More likely if fulfilled orders keep growing at a double-digit rate, transaction-service penetration expands, credit quality stabilizes, AI lowers matching costs, the shareholder-return plan is delivered, and the market accepts an 18x earnings multiple.
$10 to $13
More likely if order growth remains healthy, transaction services continue to replace weaker brokerage revenue, adjusted earnings grow near 10%, credit losses stay manageable, and the market values YMM near 15x earnings.
$6 to $8
More likely if freight demand slows, brokerage revenue and local grants weaken, credit losses rise, user incentives pressure margins, regulation restricts monetization, or the market applies an 11x multiple to low-growth earnings.
YMM AI technical analysis
YMM AI technical analysis uses dated market data through the July 12, 2026 cutoff. The July 10 close of $8.57 was above the 50-day moving average of $8.51 but below the 200-day average of $10.07. RSI was about 54.82, volume was about 5.09 million shares versus a 20-day average of 6.45 million, and the 52-week price change was about negative 30.66%. These are reference levels, not predictions, and traders should confirm live data before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $8.57 | Latest verified regular-session close on July 10, 2026. StockAnalysis and MarketBeat differed by $0.01. |
| Immediate support | $8.27 to $8.52 | Recent July lows and the July 10 low form the first support area. A close below this zone would weaken the short-term recovery attempt. |
| Secondary support | $7.46 to $8.08 | This zone covers the late-June lows and the June 29 to June 30 recovery area. A break below it would challenge the recent base. |
| Near resistance | $8.74 to $9.11 | The July 10 high and the June 4 high mark nearby supply. A breakout needs volume confirmation because recent volume was below average. |
| 50-day moving average | $8.51 | StockAnalysis reference as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. Price was marginally above this level. |
| 200-day moving average | $10.07 | StockAnalysis reference as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. Price remained below this longer-term trend line. |
| Momentum | RSI about 54.82 | The RSI reading is near neutral. It does not by itself confirm a trend reversal or an oversold setup. |
| Volume | 5.09 million shares versus 6.45 million average | July 10 participation was below the cited 20-day average, so a stronger move needs broader participation. |
| Volatility | 5-day beta about 0.31; July 10 range $8.52 to $8.74 | The low beta reading does not remove ADR, China policy, liquidity, or earnings-gap risk. The recent daily range was about 2.6% of the close. |
| Invalidation | Close below $8.27, then $7.46 | A close below the first support zone weakens the short-term setup. A break below the late-June low would challenge the medium-term base. |
YMM AI trading strategy
The YMM AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines platform evidence, valuation, technical confirmation, position sizing, and explicit invalidation conditions.
Treat a move above the $8.74 to $9.11 resistance zone as stronger only if volume improves and YMM later reclaims the $10.07 200-day average while orders and transaction-service revenue remain healthy.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $8.27 reduces confidence. Define a maximum portfolio loss before entry and do not treat a moving-average crossover as a guarantee.
If price revisits the $8.27 to $8.52 support area without a thesis break, compare price stabilization with Q2 revenue, fulfilled orders, shipper MAUs, credit quality, and transaction-service penetration.
A close below $7.46 invalidates the recent base. Do not average down only because the P/E looks lower; review earnings quality, credit exposure, and the VIE risk first.
Track Q2 2026 total revenue guidance of RMB3.07 billion to RMB3.17 billion, ex-brokerage revenue guidance of RMB2.21 billion to RMB2.30 billion, fulfilled orders, shipper MAUs, transaction take rate, NPL ratio, cash returns, and data-security developments.
Lower confidence if transaction-service growth slows while credit losses, user incentives, or brokerage dependence rise. Recheck the latest filing before using any historical level.
Investment research summary
Customers use Full Truck Alliance to find freight capacity, compare routes and prices, match with truckers, and complete shipments. The company monetizes the activity of a digital freight network through listing, brokerage, transaction, credit, insurance, and other value-added services.
The moat is the density of a two-sided network, historical route and price data, matching infrastructure, user trust, and more than ten years of operating experience. The moat can widen as activity improves matching, but users can multi-home and price remains important.
The thesis fails if the platform cannot retain a critical mass of shippers and truckers, transaction monetization increases friction, freight brokerage loses grants or margin, credit losses grow, data regulation restricts the model, or the VIE structure cannot preserve operating control.
Peter Hui Zhang is founder, chairman, and CEO, with a long operating history and 77.2% voting power as of March 31, 2026. The company approved a plan to distribute no less than 50% of prior-year non-GAAP adjusted net income through dividends and buybacks, which supports alignment but does not remove founder-control risk.
China road freight digitization, logistics efficiency, electronic matching, and AI-assisted dispatch are long-term industry trends. The opportunity is large, but freight demand is cyclical and the platform remains exposed to regulation, competition, trucker economics, credit, and macro activity.
At $8.57, the verified model shows about 14.90x TTM earnings, 1.54x book value, 10.58x P/FCF, and 3.97% dividend yield. The apparent margin of safety depends on whether cash generation is durable after credit exposure, shareholder returns, investments, and regulatory costs are considered.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| YMM price | $8.57 close on July 10, 2026 | StockAnalysis historical price and MarketBeat chart | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $8.89 billion calculated as $8.57 x 1,037,544,329 ADS-equivalent shares | financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis valuation page | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares and ADS ratio | 20,750,886,585 ordinary shares as of March 31, 2026; one ADS represents 20 Class A ordinary shares | Full Truck Alliance 2025 Form 20-F | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 total revenue | RMB12.49 billion, up 11.1% year over year | FTA FY2025 earnings release and StockAnalysis financials | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 total revenue | RMB2.85 billion, up 5.5% year over year | FTA Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| 2025 transaction-service revenue | RMB5.32 billion, up 38.2% year over year | FTA FY2025 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Platform activity | 236.3 million fulfilled orders and 3.14 million average shipper MAUs in 2025 | FTA FY2025 earnings release and Form 20-F | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 platform activity | 55.0 million fulfilled orders and 3.11 million average shipper MAUs | FTA Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | RMB4.46 billion GAAP net income and RMB4.79 billion adjusted net income | FTA FY2025 earnings release and StockAnalysis financials | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net income | RMB994.1 million GAAP net income and RMB1.20 billion adjusted net income | FTA Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | RMB6.07 billion at December 31, 2025; StockAnalysis showed RMB5.91 billion, a 1.29% source difference | FTA Form 20-F and StockAnalysis balance sheet | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 liquidity pool | RMB32.3 billion including cash, restricted cash, short-term investments, long-term deposits, and wealth-management products | FTA Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 cash flow | RMB4.63 billion operating cash flow and RMB4.50 billion free cash flow | FTA Form 20-F and StockAnalysis cash flow statement | July 12, 2026 |
| Credit exposure | RMB5.2 billion total outstanding loan balance and 3.2% NPL ratio at March 31, 2026 | FTA Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Shareholder return policy | Long-term plan to distribute at least 50% of prior-year non-GAAP adjusted net income through dividends and buybacks | FTA 2025 Form 20-F | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 14.90x PE, 1.54x PB, 10.58x P/FCF, 9.45% FCF yield, 4.85x PS, and 3.97% dividend yield from exact tool inputs | financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical references | 50-day MA $8.51, 200-day MA $10.07, RSI 54.82, July 10 volume 5.09 million, 20-day average volume 6.45 million | StockAnalysis statistics and historical price data | July 12, 2026 |
| Analyst price-target snapshot | S&P Global consensus average $12.54, low $9.09, high $16.69 from 16 analysts | StockAnalysis forecast page | July 12, 2026 |
This YMM AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of July 12, 2026 and can be wrong.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
