Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. research snapshot
YMM AI stock analysis currently reads Full Truck Alliance as a scaled digital freight marketplace connecting shippers and truckers in China. The platform facilitated 236.3 million fulfilled orders in 2025, while transaction-service revenue grew 38.2% to RMB5.32 billion and then 33.1% in the first quarter of 2026. The latest verified regular-session close was $9.49 on July 31, 2026, with a market capitalization near $9.9 billion, a trailing P/E near 16.50x, a forward P/E near 13.29x, a price-to-book ratio near 1.70x, and a dividend yield near 3.5%. The YMM AI stock forecast depends on order growth, transaction-service penetration, credit quality, regulation, and whether AI lowers matching costs without adding execution risk. This page is informational research only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$9.49 close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$9.85 billion reported by StockAnalysis and $9.90 billion by MarketBeat, with $9.86 billion calculated from 1.039 billion ADS-equivalent shares
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
Profitable digital freight platform with network effects and cash returns, offset by China freight-cycle, credit, regulatory, and VIE risk
Trend status
Recovery above the 50-day average, still testing the 200-day average after a sharp June rebound
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Full Truck Alliance connects millions of shippers and truckers, monetizing freight listing, brokerage, transaction services, and value-added products. The 2025 platform handled 236.3 million fulfilled orders and 3.14 million average monthly active shippers. | High |
| Moat | The moat is a data-rich two-sided network, route and price information, user trust, matching technology, and operating history. The network is meaningful, but truckers and shippers can multi-home, so switching costs are not absolute. | Medium-high |
| Management | Founder, chairman, and CEO Peter Hui Zhang has built the platform since the Yunmanman and Huochebang merger, while the company has increased transaction monetization, raised the quarterly dividend, and targets about US$400 million of total shareholder return for 2026. His high voting power is both alignment and key-person risk. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 11.1% to RMB12.49 billion and GAAP net income rose 42.8% to RMB4.46 billion. Q1 2026 revenue rose 5.5%, but GAAP and adjusted net income declined year over year while fulfilled orders rose 14.3% and transaction-service revenue rose 33.1%. | High |
| Valuation | At $9.49, the verified market-data inputs imply about 16.50x TTM earnings, 13.29x forward earnings, 1.70x book value, 11.67x free cash flow, 8.57% FCF yield, and a dividend yield near 3.5%. The discount can reflect China, governance, credit, and growth-quality risk. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 31 close of $9.49 was above the 50-day moving average of $8.64 and near the 200-day average of $9.78. RSI near 63.92 is approaching overbought, and the stock has rebounded from the late-June low of $7.46. | Medium |
| Risk level | The main risks are China road-freight demand, competition and pricing, a rising NPL ratio of 3.2%, local-government grant dependence in brokerage, cybersecurity and data regulation, VIE enforceability, founder control, and RMB to USD translation. | High |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because the main operating and financial facts reconcile across company filings, StockAnalysis, and MarketBeat, with price and market-cap checks from independent market sources. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The business quality case is stronger than a simple commodity freight broker, but the investment case needs proof that rising transaction-service penetration can offset credit, regulation, and low switching-cost risks. | Medium |
YMM AI stock forecast
The YMM AI stock forecast uses scenario math rather than a guaranteed price target. Using the $9.49 July 31, 2026 close, a TTM EPS input of $0.575, three years, and the Pineify financial_rigor.py assumptions of 15% / 10% / 3% annual EPS growth with 18x / 15x / 11x terminal P/E, the mechanical outputs are about $15.7, $11.5, and $6.9. The forecast is most sensitive to transaction-service growth, fulfilled orders, credit losses, regulation, and the multiple investors assign to China platform businesses.
$14 to $17
More likely if fulfilled orders keep growing at a double-digit rate, transaction-service penetration expands, the NPL ratio stabilizes, AI lowers matching costs, the shareholder-return plan is delivered, and the market accepts an 18x earnings multiple. JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley targets support this path.
$10 to $13
More likely if order growth remains healthy, transaction services continue to replace weaker brokerage revenue, adjusted earnings grow near 10%, credit losses stay manageable, and the market values YMM near the 13x to 16x earnings range. The S&P Global consensus average target is $12.59.
$6 to $8
More likely if freight demand slows, brokerage revenue and local grants weaken, the NPL ratio rises further, user incentives pressure margins, regulation restricts monetization, or the market applies an 11x multiple to low-growth earnings.
YMM AI technical analysis
YMM AI technical analysis uses dated market data through the August 3, 2026 cutoff. The July 31 close of $9.49 was above the 50-day moving average of $8.64 and just below the 200-day average of $9.78. RSI was about 63.92, volume was about 6.34 million shares versus a 20-day average of 6.34 million, and the 52-week price change was about negative 17.41%. These are reference levels, not predictions, and traders should confirm live data before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $9.49 | Latest verified regular-session close on July 31, 2026. StockAnalysis and MarketBeat both reported $9.49. |
| Immediate support | $9.00 to $9.12 | The July 21 to July 23 lows form the first support area. A close below this zone would weaken the recovery attempt. |
| Secondary support | $8.53 to $8.75 | This zone covers the July 13 to July 15 consolidation and the 50-day average area. A break below it would challenge the rebound. |
| Near resistance | $9.61 to $9.78 | The July 29 to July 31 highs and the 200-day moving average mark nearby supply. A breakout needs volume confirmation. |
| Higher resistance | $10.07 to $10.70 | The early-June high area and the start-of-year price near $10.70 sit above the current zone. This is the next test after the 200-day average. |
| 50-day moving average | $8.64 | StockAnalysis reference as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. Price was above this level. |
| 200-day moving average | $9.78 | StockAnalysis reference as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. Price was testing this longer-term trend line from below. |
| Momentum | RSI about 63.92 | The RSI reading is strong but approaching overbought. It does not by itself confirm a durable trend reversal. |
| Volume | 6.34 million shares versus 6.34 million average | July 31 participation was in line with the cited 20-day average, so a stronger move needs a volume expansion. |
| Volatility | 5-day beta about 0.31; July 31 range $9.47 to $9.61 | The low beta reading does not remove ADR, China policy, liquidity, or earnings-gap risk. The recent daily range was about 1.5% of the close. |
| Invalidation | Close below $9.00, then $8.53 | A close below the first support zone weakens the recovery setup. A break below the mid-July base would challenge the medium-term trend. |
YMM AI trading strategy
The YMM AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines platform evidence, valuation, technical confirmation, position sizing, and explicit invalidation conditions.
Treat a close above the $9.61 to $9.78 resistance zone as a stronger signal only if volume expands and YMM later holds above the 200-day average while orders and transaction-service revenue remain healthy. The next target zone would be $10.07 to $10.70.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $9.00 reduces confidence. Define a maximum portfolio loss before entry and do not treat a moving-average crossover as a guarantee.
If price revisits the $9.00 to $9.12 support area without a thesis break, compare price stabilization with Q2 revenue, fulfilled orders, shipper MAUs, the NPL ratio, and transaction-service penetration.
A close below $8.53 invalidates the mid-July base. Do not average down only because the P/E looks lower; review earnings quality, credit exposure, and the VIE risk first.
Track the August 20, 2026 earnings report, Q2 2026 total revenue guidance of RMB3.07 billion to RMB3.17 billion, ex-brokerage revenue guidance of RMB2.21 billion to RMB2.30 billion, fulfilled orders, shipper MAUs, transaction take rate, NPL ratio, the US$400 million shareholder-return target, and data-security developments.
Lower confidence if transaction-service growth slows while credit losses, user incentives, or brokerage dependence rise. Recheck the latest filing before using any historical level.
Investment research summary
Customers use Full Truck Alliance to find freight capacity, compare routes and prices, match with truckers, and complete shipments. The company monetizes the activity of a digital freight network through listing, brokerage, transaction, credit, insurance, and other value-added services.
The moat is the density of a two-sided network, historical route and price data, matching infrastructure, user trust, and more than ten years of operating experience. The moat can widen as activity improves matching, but users can multi-home and price remains important.
The thesis fails if the platform cannot retain a critical mass of shippers and truckers, transaction monetization increases friction, freight brokerage loses grants or margin, credit losses grow, data regulation restricts the model, or the VIE structure cannot preserve operating control.
Peter Hui Zhang is founder, chairman, and CEO, with a long operating history and high voting power. The company raised its quarterly dividend and targets about US$400 million of total shareholder return for 2026, which supports alignment but does not remove founder-control or key-person risk.
China road freight digitization, logistics efficiency, electronic matching, and AI-assisted dispatch are long-term industry trends. The opportunity is large, but freight demand is cyclical and the platform remains exposed to regulation, competition, trucker economics, credit, and macro activity.
At $9.49, the verified model shows about 16.50x TTM earnings, 13.29x forward earnings, 1.70x book value, 11.67x P/FCF, and a dividend yield near 3.5%. The apparent margin of safety depends on whether cash generation is durable after credit exposure, shareholder returns, investments, and regulatory costs are considered.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| YMM price | $9.49 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis historical price and MarketBeat chart | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $9.85B reported by StockAnalysis and $9.90B by MarketBeat; $9.86B calculated as $9.49 x 1,039,460,817 ADS-equivalent shares | financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis valuation page | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares and ADS ratio | 20,789,216,349 weighted-average ordinary shares in Q1 2026; one ADS represents 20 Class A ordinary shares | FTA Q1 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 total revenue | RMB12.49 billion, up 11.1% year over year | FTA FY2025 earnings release and StockAnalysis financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 total revenue | RMB2.85 billion, up 5.5% year over year | FTA Q1 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| 2025 transaction-service revenue | RMB5.32 billion, up 38.2% year over year | FTA FY2025 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 transaction-service revenue | RMB1.39 billion, up 33.1% year over year | FTA Q1 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Platform activity | 236.3 million fulfilled orders and 3.14 million average shipper MAUs in 2025 | FTA FY2025 earnings release and Form 20-F | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 platform activity | 55.0 million fulfilled orders and 3.11 million average shipper MAUs | FTA Q1 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | RMB4.46 billion GAAP net income and RMB4.79 billion adjusted net income | FTA FY2025 earnings release and StockAnalysis financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net income | RMB994.1 million GAAP net income and RMB1.20 billion adjusted net income | FTA Q1 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 cash flow | RMB1.56 billion operating cash flow and RMB1.49 billion free cash flow | FTA Q1 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 liquidity pool | RMB32.3 billion including cash, restricted cash, short-term investments, long-term time deposits, and wealth-management products | FTA Q1 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Credit exposure | RMB5.2 billion total outstanding loan balance and 3.2% NPL ratio at March 31, 2026, up from 2.9% | FTA Q1 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Shareholder return | Q2 2026 dividend of US$0.0840 per ADS, about US$87.5 million total, with a board target of about US$400 million total shareholder return for 2026 | FTA Q1 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 16.50x PE, 13.29x forward PE, 1.70x PB, 11.67x P/FCF, 8.57% FCF yield, 5.37x PS, and 3.54% dividend yield from exact tool inputs | financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical references | 50-day MA $8.64, 200-day MA $9.78, RSI 63.92, July 31 volume 6.34 million, 20-day average volume 6.34 million, 52-week range $7.46 to $14.07 | StockAnalysis statistics and historical price data | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst price-target snapshot | S&P Global consensus average $12.59, median $12.33, low $9.14, high $16.77 from 16 analysts; MarketBeat showed $11.04 from 8 analysts | StockAnalysis forecast page and MarketBeat | August 3, 2026 |
This YMM AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong.
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