Yum China Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
YUMC AI stock analysis currently reads Yum China Holdings as the largest restaurant company in China, running a brand-led quick-service restaurant network with KFC and Pizza Hut as the core engines and a growing franchise mix. The July 12, 2026 setup is not a simple cheap-stock signal: the latest verified close used here was $43.02 on July 10, 2026, with a market capitalization of about $15.02 billion, 16.55x TTM earnings, 2.78x book value, and a 2.70% dividend yield. The YUMC AI stock forecast depends on whether store expansion, same-store transaction growth, value-for-money positioning, franchise economics, and disciplined capital returns can offset China consumption uncertainty, currency moves, and competitive pressure. This page is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$43.02
Market cap
$15.02 billion verified market cap
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
China QSR leader with strong unit growth, disciplined capital returns, and macro/China demand risk
Trend status
Short-term downtrend below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Yum China turns a large KFC and Pizza Hut footprint into system sales, franchise fees, advertising income, delivery services, and supply-chain economics, with 18,101 restaurants across more than 2,500 cities at the end of 2025. | High |
| Moat | The moat is brand trust, scale, operating playbooks, digital membership, supply-chain reach, and franchisee relationships. Consumer switching costs are low, so value and convenience must keep winning. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Joey Wat and the leadership team have delivered consistent same-store transaction growth, margin expansion, and large capital returns. The 2026-2030 store and capital-return targets are the next test. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 4% to $11.80 billion, operating profit rose 11% to $1.29 billion, and operating profit margin reached 10.9%. Q1 2026 revenue rose 10% to $3.27 billion and operating profit rose 12% to $447 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $43.02, YUMC trades near 16.55x TTM earnings, 2.78x book value, 17.92x TTM free cash flow per share, and a 2.70% dividend yield, which is less demanding than many U.S. QSR peers. | High |
| Technical trend | YUMC is below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with RSI near the 38 level and negative MACD, so the technical picture is cautious as of the July 10, 2026 close. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are China consumer sentiment, foreign exchange, competitive value pressure, store-opening execution, franchisee economics, food and labor costs, geopolitical sentiment, and the pace of buybacks. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because official Yum China filings, official releases, SEC data, and market sources align on the main operating and market facts. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The company quality case is stronger than the current price implies, but the margin of safety depends on whether China demand and store expansion can sustain the double-digit EPS growth that the 2026 outlook expects. | Medium |
YUMC AI stock forecast
The YUMC AI stock forecast uses scenario math rather than a guaranteed price target. Using the $43.02 July 10, 2026 quote reference, TTM EPS of $2.60, and a one-year earnings multiple model, Pineify financial_rigor.py produced a bearish area near $38, a base area near $51, and a bullish area near $65. The forecast is most sensitive to same-store sales, store openings, margin direction, capital returns, and the multiple investors apply to China QSR growth.
$58 to $68
More likely if Yum China sustains double-digit EPS growth, opens more than 1,900 net new stores in 2026, expands Pizza Hut margins, keeps KFC traffic resilient, and the market pays a premium China QSR multiple near 22x earnings.
$48 to $56
More likely if EPS compounds near 10%, system sales grow in the mid-to-high single digits, store expansion reaches the 20,000 target, and the market values YUMC near an 18x earnings multiple.
$35 to $42
More likely if China consumption weakens, same-store sales stall, store expansion pressures margins, franchise economics disappoint, or the market re-rates YUMC toward a low-teens earnings multiple.
YUMC AI technical analysis
YUMC AI technical analysis is cautious as of the July 12, 2026 cutoff. The July 10, 2026 close of $43.02 sits below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, Bollinger Bands show the price near the lower band, and momentum indicators are leaning bearish. This page does not fetch request-time market data, so traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $43.02 | Latest verified close used for this page as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Immediate support | $42.00 to $42.40 | Area around the Bollinger lower band and the prior support level that was broken in late June 2026. |
| Secondary support | $40.20 to $41.75 | Area near the June 2026 lows and the S3 pivot reference. A sustained break would weaken the medium-term setup. |
| Near resistance | $44.30 to $44.96 | Area near the Bollinger upper band and the R1 pivot reference. A move above this zone needs volume confirmation. |
| 50-day moving average | About $48.07 | Barchart showed YUMC below the 50-day moving average as of the July 2026 cutoff. |
| 200-day moving average | About $47.72 | Barchart showed YUMC below the 200-day moving average, which supports the cautious trend read. |
| Momentum | RSI about 38, MACD negative | RSI is near the lower end of neutral and MACD is negative, suggesting weak short-term momentum. |
| Volume | About 1.33 million shares | The July 10 volume was below the 20-day average, so a reversal should be confirmed by rising participation. |
| Volatility | ATR 14-day about $1.00 | Position sizing should allow for normal daily movement around the $43 price. |
| Invalidation | Close below $42, then $40 | A close below the immediate support area would weaken the near-term setup. A break below $40 would challenge the medium-term trend. |
YUMC AI trading strategy
The YUMC AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines filing-backed business evidence, technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels.
Look for YUMC to reclaim the 50-day moving average and break the $44.30 to $44.96 resistance zone with improving volume before treating momentum as confirmed.
A failed breakout or daily close below the $42.00 support area should reduce confidence in the setup.
If YUMC pulls back toward $40.20 to $41.75 without a thesis break, compare price stabilization with upcoming earnings, same-store sales, and China consumption signals.
Do not average down solely because Yum China is a high-quality business. Define maximum loss and review valuation first.
Track Q2 2026 results, same-store sales, transaction growth, store openings, KFC and Pizza Hut margins, franchise mix, capital returns, and China consumer data.
Lower the rating if earnings growth slows while the stock still depends on a premium China growth multiple.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Yum China for convenient, trusted, value-priced meals through KFC, Pizza Hut, and a growing set of emerging brands. Shareholders own a restaurant operator that converts brand strength and operating scale into system sales, franchise fees, and supply-chain economics.
The moat is brand recognition, operating scale, digital membership, supply-chain reach, franchisee relationships, and location density. It is not protected by high switching costs, so value, speed, and taste must keep winning.
The thesis fails if China consumption weakens, KFC or Pizza Hut traffic stalls, value-for-money positioning erodes margins, franchise expansion lowers quality, capital returns stop, or the market loses patience with China exposure.
Joey Wat and the leadership team have expanded margins, grown same-store transactions, opened stores at record pace, and returned large amounts of cash to shareholders. The 2026-2030 targets and 100% free-cash-flow return plan from 2027 are the next capital allocation tests.
Yum China sits at the intersection of Chinese urbanization, QSR convenience, digital ordering, delivery, and lower-tier-city consumption. The trend is durable, but the industry is competitive and sensitive to consumer confidence and input costs.
At roughly 16.55x TTM earnings and 2.78x book value, the price leaves more room for error than many global QSR peers. A fair setup still requires either sustained double-digit EPS growth or a better entry price.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| YUMC price | $43.02 close on July 10, 2026 | Yahoo Finance and exa.ai quote snapshots | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $15.02 billion, verified as $43.02 x 349,147,371 shares from the Q1 2026 10-Q | financial_rigor.py market-cap verification and SEC Form 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 349,147,371 shares as of May 4, 2026 | Yum China Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 total revenue | $11.80 billion | Yum China FY2025 earnings release and Form 10-K | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 operating profit | $1.29 billion, 10.9% operating margin | Yum China FY2025 earnings release and Form 10-K | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $929 million | Yum China FY2025 earnings release and Form 10-K | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $12.09 billion | Company filings and StockAnalysis TTM snapshot | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $946 million | Company filings and StockAnalysis TTM snapshot | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 total revenue | $3.27 billion, up 10% year over year | Yum China Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating profit | $447 million, up 12% year over year | Yum China Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and short-term investments | $1.43 billion at March 31, 2026 | Yum China Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| Long-term bank deposits and notes | $707 million at March 31, 2026 | Yum China Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| Short-term borrowings | $20 million at March 31, 2026 | Yum China Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| Free cash flow and dividend | FY2025 free cash flow $840 million, annual dividend $1.16 per share, 2.70% dividend yield | Yum China FY2025 earnings release and StockAnalysis | July 12, 2026 |
| 2026 capital return plan | $1.5 billion targeted return to shareholders in 2026, around $400 million in dividends and $1.1 billion in share repurchases | Yum China share repurchase announcement and Q1 2026 earnings call | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 16.55x TTM PE, 2.78x PB, 16.80% ROE, 17.92x TTM P/FCF, 5.58% FCF yield, 2.70% dividend yield from financial_rigor.py | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Moving averages and momentum | 50-day MA about $48.07, 200-day MA about $47.72, RSI about 38, MACD negative, ATR about $1.00 | Barchart and Meyka technical snapshots | July 12, 2026 |
| Analyst price target | Consensus average price target about $56.80 to $61.17, with estimates ranging from $50.00 to $76.00 | TipRanks and StockAnalysis analyst forecasts | July 12, 2026 |
This YUMC AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of July 12, 2026 and can be wrong.
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