Yum China Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
YUMC AI stock analysis currently reads Yum China Holdings as the largest restaurant company in China, operating more than 19,000 stores under KFC, Pizza Hut, and six brands in total across over 2,700 cities. The August 3, 2026 setup is stronger than three weeks ago: Q2 2026 revenue rose 13% to $3.14 billion, operating profit rose 14% to $348 million, and diluted EPS rose 21% to $0.70, reported July 30, 2026. The latest verified close used here was $48.18 on July 31, 2026, with a market capitalization of about $16.65 billion, about 17.7x TTM earnings, 3.08x book value, and a 2.41% dividend yield. The YUMC AI stock forecast now depends on whether the Q2 momentum in same-store transactions, franchise-led store openings, Pizza Hut brand ownership in Mainland China, and the 100% free cash flow return plan from 2027 can offset China consumption uncertainty, currency moves, and delivery cost pressure. This page is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$48.18
Market cap
$16.65 billion verified market cap
AI score
76 / 100
Rating
China QSR leader with record Q2 store growth, improving same-store sales, and heavy capital returns, tempered by China demand and FX risk
Trend status
Short-term recovery above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a strong Q2 earnings beat
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Yum China turns a 19,297-store KFC and Pizza Hut footprint into system sales, franchise fees, advertising income, delivery services, and supply-chain economics, with 560 net new stores opened in Q2 2026 alone. | High |
| Moat | The moat is brand trust, scale, operating playbooks, digital membership of over 270 million active members, supply-chain reach, and franchisee relationships. Consumer switching costs are low, so value, speed, and convenience must keep winning. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Joey Wat and the leadership team have delivered same-store transaction growth for 14 consecutive quarters, 9 consecutive quarters of operating profit margin expansion, record store openings, and on-track $1.5 billion annual capital returns. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 4% to $11.80 billion and operating profit rose 11% to $1.29 billion. Q2 2026 revenue rose 13% to $3.14 billion, operating profit rose 14% to $348 million, and OP margin reached 11.1%, up 20 basis points year over year. | High |
| Valuation | At $48.18, YUMC trades near 17.7x TTM earnings, 3.08x book value, about 17.7x TTM free cash flow per share, and a 2.41% dividend yield, with a forward PE near 14.9x, which is less demanding than many U.S. QSR peers. | High |
| Technical trend | After the earnings-driven move, YUMC is above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with RSI near 74 and positive MACD, so the short-term bias turned from cautious to constructive as of the July 31, 2026 close. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are China consumer sentiment, foreign exchange, delivery and labor cost pressure, competitive value wars, store-opening execution, franchisee economics, food costs, geopolitical sentiment, and integration and bridge-loan financing for the Pizza Hut brand purchase. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because official Yum China filings, the July 30, 2026 earnings release, SEC data, and market sources align on the main operating and market facts. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The Q2 beat and the 100% free cash flow return plan from 2027 strengthen the quality case, but the margin of safety still depends on whether China demand and the Pizza Hut brand integration can sustain the double-digit EPS growth that the 2026 outlook and consensus forecasts expect. | Medium |
YUMC AI stock forecast
The YUMC AI stock forecast uses scenario math rather than a guaranteed price target. Using the $48.18 July 31, 2026 close, TTM EPS of $2.72, and a one-year earnings multiple model, Pineify financial_rigor.py produced a bearish area near $39, a base area near $52, and a bullish area near $64. The forecast is most sensitive to same-store sales, store openings, Pizza Hut brand deal closing and margins, delivery cost trends, capital returns, and the multiple investors apply to China QSR growth.
$58 to $68
More likely if Yum China sustains double-digit EPS growth, keeps same-store transactions growing at 5% or more, opens more than 1,900 net new stores in 2026, closes the Pizza Hut brand deal accretively with license fee savings, and the market pays a premium China QSR multiple near 20x earnings.
$48 to $56
More likely if EPS compounds near 12%, system sales grow in the high single digits, store expansion reaches the 20,000 target, delivery cost pressure stays manageable, and the market values YUMC near a 17x earnings multiple.
$36 to $42
More likely if China consumption weakens, same-store sales stall, delivery and value-war costs squeeze margins, Pizza Hut brand integration or the bridge loan adds friction, or the market re-rates YUMC toward a low-teens earnings multiple.
YUMC AI technical analysis
YUMC AI technical analysis turned more constructive as of the August 3, 2026 cutoff. The July 31, 2026 close of $48.18 sits above the 50-day moving average near $43.25 and the 200-day moving average near $47.53 after an 11% five-day surge around the Q2 earnings beat. RSI near 74 and elevated stochastic readings warn that the short-term move is extended, so this page does not fetch request-time market data and traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $48.18 | Latest verified close used for this page as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Immediate support | $46.00 to $46.60 | Area near the 100-day moving average and the post-earnings gap zone. A close back below this area would weaken the breakout. |
| Secondary support | $43.20 to $44.00 | Area near the 50-day and 20-day moving averages, which acted as resistance before the earnings move and should now act as support. |
| Near resistance | $48.60 to $50.00 | Area just above the July 31 close toward the round $50 level. A sustained move above $50 would need volume confirmation. |
| 52-week high resistance | $58.39 | The 52-week high from the October 2025 range. A move toward this zone would represent a full recovery of the last year of trading. |
| 50-day moving average | About $43.25 | Barchart showed YUMC above the 50-day moving average after the earnings surge as of the July 31, 2026 close. |
| 200-day moving average | About $47.53 | Barchart showed the 200-day moving average near $47.53, and YUMC is back above it, which supports a more constructive trend read. |
| Momentum | RSI about 74, stochastic elevated | RSI near 74 and 14-day stochastic near 82 suggest the post-earnings move is extended and short-term pullbacks are possible. |
| Volume | 5-day average about 2.2 million shares | Volume expanded on the earnings move and the July 31 close, but a continuation should be confirmed by rising participation above $48.60. |
| Volatility | ATR 14-day about $1.22 | Position sizing should allow for normal daily movement of roughly 2.5% around the $48 price. |
| Invalidation | Close below $46, then $43.25 | A close back below the immediate support area would fade the breakout. A break below the 50-day moving average would challenge the medium-term trend. |
YUMC AI trading strategy
The YUMC AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines filing-backed business evidence, technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels.
After the reclaim of the 200-day moving average, look for YUMC to hold the $46.00 to $46.60 support zone and then clear the $48.60 to $50.00 resistance with rising volume before treating the uptrend as confirmed.
A daily close back below $46.00 or below the post-earnings gap should reduce confidence in the setup and tighten the stop.
Because RSI near 74 and elevated stochastic readings point to an extended move, a pullback toward $43.20 to $44.00 without a thesis break can be compared against upcoming Q3 results, same-store sales, and China consumption signals.
Do not average down solely because Yum China is a high-quality business. Define maximum loss and review valuation and the Pizza Hut brand integration timeline first.
Track Q3 2026 results, same-store sales, transaction growth, store openings, KFC and Pizza Hut margins, franchise mix, Pizza Hut brand deal closing in August 2026, bridge-loan financing, capital returns, and China consumer data.
Lower the rating if earnings growth slows, delivery costs keep pressuring margins, or the Pizza Hut brand acquisition integration or financing becomes a bigger drag than expected.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Yum China for convenient, trusted, value-priced meals through KFC, Pizza Hut, and a growing set of emerging brands including KCOFFEE, KPRO, Taco Bell, Little Sheep, Huang Ji Huang, and Lavazza. Shareholders own a restaurant operator that converts brand strength and operating scale into system sales, franchise fees, and supply-chain economics.
The moat is brand recognition, operating scale, digital membership, supply-chain reach, franchisee relationships, and location density. It is not protected by high switching costs, so value, speed, taste, and convenience must keep winning.
The thesis fails if China consumption weakens, KFC or Pizza Hut traffic stalls, delivery and value-war costs erode margins, franchise expansion lowers quality, the Pizza Hut brand purchase integration or bridge loan financing becomes a drag, capital returns slow, or the market loses patience with China exposure.
Joey Wat and the leadership team have delivered 14 consecutive quarters of same-store transaction growth, 9 consecutive quarters of operating profit margin expansion, record store openings, and large capital returns. The 2026 targets, the August 2026 Pizza Hut brand deal close, and the 100% free cash flow return plan from 2027 are the next capital allocation tests.
Yum China sits at the intersection of Chinese urbanization, QSR convenience, digital ordering, delivery, coffee and light-meal concepts, and lower-tier-city penetration. The trend is durable, but the industry is competitive and sensitive to consumer confidence, delivery costs, and input prices.
At roughly 17.7x TTM earnings, about 17.7x TTM free cash flow per share, and 3.08x book value, the price is higher than it was in early July but still below many global QSR peers on a forward basis. A fair setup still requires sustained double-digit EPS growth or a better entry price on pullbacks.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| YUMC price | $48.18 close on July 31, 2026 | Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis quote snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $16.65 billion, verified as $48.18 x 345.56 million shares | financial_rigor.py market-cap verification and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 345 million shares issued and outstanding at June 30, 2026 | Yum China Q2 2026 Form 8-K balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 total revenue | $3.14 billion, up 13% year over year | Yum China Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 operating profit | $348 million, up 14%, OP margin 11.1% | Yum China Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 diluted EPS | $0.70, up 21% year over year | Yum China Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 store openings | 560 net new stores, a Q2 record, with total stores reaching 19,297 | Yum China Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Same-store sales and transactions | Same-store sales +1%, same-store transactions +5% in Q2 2026 | Yum China Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 total revenue | $11.80 billion | Yum China FY2025 earnings release and Form 10-K | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 operating profit | $1.29 billion, 10.9% operating margin | Yum China FY2025 earnings release and Form 10-K | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $929 million | Yum China FY2025 earnings release and Form 10-K | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $12.44 billion | Company filings and StockAnalysis TTM snapshot | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $975 million | Company filings and StockAnalysis TTM snapshot | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and short-term investments | $1.39 billion at June 30, 2026 | Yum China Q2 2026 Form 8-K balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Long-term bank deposits and notes | $688 million at June 30, 2026 | Yum China Q2 2026 Form 8-K balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Short-term borrowings | $66 million at June 30, 2026 | Yum China Q2 2026 Form 8-K balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Free cash flow and dividend | FY2025 free cash flow $840 million, annual dividend $1.16 per share, 2.41% dividend yield | Yum China FY2025 earnings release and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| 2026 capital return plan | $1.5 billion targeted return in 2026; H1 2026 returned $718 million with $515 million in buybacks and $203 million in dividends | Yum China Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Pizza Hut brand acquisition | Acquisition of the Pizza Hut brand in Mainland China expected to close in August 2026, funded with an approximately $1.2 billion equivalent offshore bridge loan | Yum China Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 17.7x TTM PE, 3.08x PB, 16.8% ROE, about 17.7x TTM P/FCF, 5.65% FCF yield, 2.41% dividend yield from financial_rigor.py | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Moving averages and momentum | 50-day MA about $43.25, 200-day MA about $47.53, RSI about 74, ATR about $1.22 | Barchart technical analysis snapshot | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst price target | Consensus average price target about $62.05 with a Strong Buy rating, estimates ranging from $52.00 to $77.00 across 23 analysts | StockAnalysis forecast and S&P Global Market Intelligence | August 3, 2026 |
This YUMC AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong.
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