Williams-Sonoma, Inc. research snapshot
WSM AI stock analysis currently reads Williams-Sonoma as a profitable, data-rich specialty retailer with premium home brands, strong e-commerce mix, high returns on capital, and cyclical exposure to furniture, housing activity, consumer confidence, tariffs, and valuation compression. At the July 9, 2026 research cutoff, the July 8 price reference was about $218.32, verified market capitalization was about $25.71 billion using 117.75 million shares outstanding, and first-quarter fiscal 2026 comparable brand revenue increased 4.8%. This WSM AI stock analysis uses scenario ranges rather than a certain price prediction, and it is for informational use only, not investment advice.
Current price
$218.32 July 8, 2026 Robinhood snapshot; StockAnalysis showed $217.54
Market cap
$25.71 billion verified market cap
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
High-quality specialty retailer with strong margins, brand depth, and housing-cycle valuation risk
Trend status
Short-term pressure below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with a still-elevated one-year gain
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 9, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Williams-Sonoma sells premium home goods, furniture, kitchenware, decor, and design-led products through Williams Sonoma, Pottery Barn, West Elm, Pottery Barn Kids and Teen, Rejuvenation, Mark and Graham, GreenRow, stores, e-commerce, and B2B channels. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from brand trust, design control, owned product development, catalog and digital demand generation, vendor relationships, store and online integration, B2B relationships, and scale in home retail. Switching costs are low, so the moat depends on taste, execution, and brand relevance. | Medium-high |
| Management | Laura Alber has been CEO since 2010 and has decades inside the company. Capital allocation has emphasized dividends and repurchases, including $287.8 million of Q1 FY2026 buybacks and $85.6 million of dividends. | High |
| Financial trend | FY2025 net revenue was $7.807 billion, net earnings were $1.088 billion, gross margin was 46.2%, and operating margin was 18.1%. Q1 FY2026 revenue was $1.805 billion, comparable brand revenue rose 4.8%, operating margin was 16.2%, and diluted EPS was $1.93. | High |
| Valuation | At $218.32 and $8.93 TTM EPS, the verified P/E is 24.45x. Verified P/FCF is 24.34x and dividend yield is 1.39%, so the stock needs continued comp growth, margin durability, and buyback discipline to justify the multiple. | High for math, medium for forward value |
| Technical trend | The daily technical read is cautious. Investing.com showed RSI near 39.7, a 50-day moving average near $227.89, and a 200-day moving average near $220.20, with price below both levels near the cutoff. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium. Housing turnover, furniture demand, tariffs, freight, product misses, digital advertising costs, inventory planning, vendor concentration, international complexity, and valuation compression can all reduce returns. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High confidence for descriptive data because company releases, StockAnalysis, Google Finance, Robinhood, Macrotrends, and StockTitan align on key numbers. Lower confidence for forward returns because consumer and multiple outcomes can change quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. WSM is a better business than many home retailers, but a high-return company can still be a mediocre stock if bought before a housing slowdown or multiple reset. | Medium |
WSM AI stock forecast
The WSM AI stock forecast is scenario-based because earnings depend on comparable brand revenue, gross margin, tariff cost flow-through, e-commerce conversion, B2B growth, inventory discipline, buybacks, and the valuation multiple. Using a $218.32 price reference, $8.93 TTM EPS, and the financial rigor tool, the mechanical three-year outcomes are about $329.70 in a bullish case, $244.60 in a base case, and $138.60 in a bearish case before dividends.
$315 to $335 before dividends
More likely if FY2026 net revenue grows near the high end of the 2.7% to 6.7% company outlook, comparable brand revenue stays positive across major brands, operating margin holds near 18%, tariffs are offset, and investors continue to pay a high-20s earnings multiple.
$235 to $250 before dividends
More likely if revenue compounds at a mid-single-digit rate, EPS grows near 6% annually, buybacks continue, and the stock holds a low-to-mid 20s earnings multiple without a major housing recovery or downturn.
$135 to $145 before dividends
More likely if furniture and home demand weaken, tariffs compress merchandise margin, digital advertising costs rise, West Elm or Pottery Barn loses traction, or investors reprice WSM closer to a high-teens earnings multiple.
WSM AI technical analysis
WSM AI technical analysis is cautious as of the July 9, 2026 cutoff. Robinhood showed WSM near $218.32 during the July 8 session, with an intraday high of $219.02, an intraday low of $215.12, volume near 970,000 shares, and a 52-week range of $161.76 to $244.65. Investing.com showed daily RSI near 39.7, the 50-day moving average near $227.89, and the 200-day moving average near $220.20. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, live levels should be checked before any trade.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price reference | $218.32 July 8 snapshot | Robinhood showed WSM at $218.32 during the July 8, 2026 session; StockAnalysis showed $217.54 for the same date. |
| Immediate support | $215 to $218 | The July 8 intraday low near $215.12 and the late-session price around $218 define the first short-term support area. |
| Trend support | $217 to $220 | Investing.com showed the daily Fibonacci pivot near $217.15 and the 200-day moving average near $220.20, so this area is important for trend repair. |
| Deeper support | $200, then $161.76 | A break below the 200-day area would put round-number support near $200 in focus. Robinhood and Google Finance showed a 52-week low of $161.76. |
| Near resistance | $220 to $228 | The 200-day moving average near $220.20 and 50-day moving average near $227.89 sit above the current quote, so reclaiming them would improve the setup. |
| Breakout resistance | $244.65 | Google Finance and Robinhood showed $244.65 as the 52-week high near the cutoff. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $227.89, 200-day near $220.20 | Price below both averages makes the short-term trend cautious even though the stock remains well above its 52-week low. |
| Momentum | RSI near 39.7 | Investing.com showed daily RSI below neutral, indicating fading momentum rather than a confirmed oversold reversal. |
| Volume | About 970,000 shares versus 1.23 million average | Robinhood showed July 8 volume below average, so a recovery above the 50-day average would need stronger participation. |
| Invalidation | Close below $215, then below $200 | A decisive close below the July 8 low would keep pressure on the chart. A break below $200 would require a broader thesis review. |
WSM AI trading strategy
The WSM AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price behavior with comparable brand revenue, operating margin, tariff commentary, inventory quality, e-commerce conversion, B2B momentum, buybacks, and housing-cycle data.
Watch for WSM to reclaim the $220 to $228 moving-average band with improving volume, positive earnings revisions, and no deterioration in FY2026 revenue, comp, or operating-margin guidance.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $215 should reduce trend confidence, especially if the move occurs with weaker home retail peers or negative tariff commentary.
If WSM pulls back toward $200 without a permanent margin or demand reset, compare the lower price with cash generation, buyback authorization, gross margin, inventory growth, and brand-level comps for Pottery Barn, West Elm, and Williams Sonoma.
Do not treat every pullback as attractive if comparable brand revenue turns negative, inventory builds faster than demand, or management reduces the operating-margin outlook.
Track comparable brand revenue, gross margin, SG&A rate, operating margin, merchandise inventory, cash, repurchases, dividend coverage, B2B growth, e-commerce mix, housing turnover, mortgage rates, tariff rates, and peer signals from RH, Wayfair, Home Depot, Lowe, TJX, and Ulta.
Position sizing should reflect that WSM has high returns and strong brands, but demand for home furnishings can turn quickly when housing activity, confidence, or discretionary spending weakens.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Williams-Sonoma for taste, design, brand trust, product quality, kitchen and home expertise, and convenient omnichannel fulfillment across premium home categories.
The moat is built on distinctive brands, owned product development, catalog and digital marketing skill, customer data, supply-chain execution, store experience, and B2B reach. It is not protected by hard switching costs, so taste leadership and execution must keep renewing the advantage.
The thesis can fail if home furnishing demand weakens, tariffs reduce merchandise margin, product assortments miss customer taste, advertising spend becomes less efficient, inventories rise too fast, or a quality-stock multiple hides slowing growth.
Laura Alber has led the company as CEO since 2010 and previously ran key Pottery Barn roles. The capital allocation record is shareholder friendly, but buybacks create the most value only when repurchases occur below intrinsic value.
Long-term support comes from home formation, renovation, design-led consumption, digital commerce, and B2B design demand. The near-term counterweight is housing affordability, low turnover, furniture-cycle weakness, tariffs, and cautious discretionary spending.
A verified 24.45x TTM P/E, 24.34x P/FCF, 1.39% dividend yield, and $25.71 billion market cap leave moderate margin of safety. The base case points near $244.60 before dividends, while the bearish case points near $138.60 if growth and the multiple both reset.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price reference | $218.32 July 8, 2026 snapshot; $217.54 on StockAnalysis | Robinhood and StockAnalysis | July 9, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $25.71 billion verified against 117.75 million shares | Robinhood, Google Finance, and financial_rigor.py | July 9, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 117.75 million | StockAnalysis and Google Finance | July 9, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2026 results | $1.805 billion revenue, +4.8% comparable brand revenue, 16.2% operating margin, $1.93 diluted EPS | Williams-Sonoma investor relations | July 9, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net earnings | $7.807 billion revenue and $1.088 billion net earnings | Williams-Sonoma FY2025 release and SEC Exhibit 99.1 | July 9, 2026 |
| FY2025 brand revenue mix | Pottery Barn $2.999B, West Elm $1.860B, Williams Sonoma $1.362B, Pottery Barn Kids and Teen $1.138B, Other $448M | SEC Exhibit 99.1 | July 9, 2026 |
| Cash and liquidity | $651.6 million cash at Q1 FY2026; no funded long-term debt in third-party FY2026 cash and debt snapshot | Williams-Sonoma Q1 release and StockTitan | July 9, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 24.45x verified P/E, 24.34x verified P/FCF, 1.39% dividend yield | StockAnalysis, Google Finance, and financial_rigor.py | July 9, 2026 |
| Technical levels | RSI 39.7, 50-day moving average $227.89, 200-day moving average $220.20 | Investing.com | July 9, 2026 |
| CEO tenure and ownership context | Laura Alber has been CEO since 2010; May 2026 filings showed a large remaining direct shareholding after 10b5-1 sales | Williams-Sonoma governance page and public Form 4 summaries | July 9, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are based on available public data, simplified assumptions, and scenario analysis as of the stated cutoff date, and they can be wrong.
