The TJX Companies, Inc. research snapshot
TJX AI stock analysis currently reads The TJX Companies as a high-quality off-price retail compounder with strong customer traffic, broad vendor access, global scale, and a valuation that still prices continued execution. At the July 31, 2026 data cutoff, TJX last closed at $157.34, market capitalization was about $173.81 billion using 1.1047 billion shares outstanding, and TTM net sales rose about 8% to $61.58 billion while Q1 Fiscal 2027 net sales rose 9% to $14.32 billion with comparable sales up 6%. This page uses scenario analysis, not a certain stock price prediction, and it is an informational tool rather than investment advice.
Current price
$157.34
Market cap
$173.81 billion
AI score
76 / 100
Rating
High-quality off-price retailer with strong execution, improving technicals, and premium valuation risk
Trend status
Long-term uptrend intact, price back above the 20-day, 60-day, and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | TJX operates the leading off-price apparel and home fashions model across TJ Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods, Winners, TK Maxx, Homesense, Sierra, and related banners. Customers pay for branded merchandise at value prices and a recurring treasure-hunt shopping trip. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from scale buying, about 21,000 vendors, flexible sourcing, fast inventory turns, distribution capability, store density, and trained merchants. Switching costs are low, so the moat depends on execution. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Ernie Herrman has led TJX since 2016 and has decades of TJX merchandising and operating experience. Capital allocation remains shareholder friendly through dividends and buybacks, and Q1 FY2027 continued the pattern of returning cash to shareholders. | High |
| Financial trend | FY2026 revenue was $60.37 billion and net income was $5.49 billion. Q1 FY2027 net sales increased 9% to $14.32 billion, net income rose to $1.33 billion, and diluted EPS rose 29% to $1.19. TTM EPS reached $5.14. | High |
| Valuation | At $157.34 and $5.14 TTM EPS, the verified P/E is 30.61x. Verified P/FCF is 31.72x and P/S is 2.82x, so the stock needs continued comp growth, margin stability, and buybacks to justify the multiple. | High for math, medium for forward value |
| Technical trend | TJX closed at $157.34 on July 31, 2026, back above the 20-day, 60-day, and 200-day moving averages. Intellectia rated the technical consensus strong buy with 8 buy signals and 2 sell signals. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is medium. Tariffs, freight, fuel, wages, fashion misses, inventory mistakes, weak discretionary spending, international execution, and valuation compression can all reduce returns. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High confidence for reported financials, cash, share count, market cap, and valuation math. Lower confidence for future traffic, merchandise availability, tariff offsets, and the market multiple. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. TJX has an unusually strong retail model, but the current price offers less margin of safety if comp growth cools or the market stops paying a premium for off-price quality. | Medium |
TJX AI stock forecast
The TJX AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $157.34 close. The bullish case requires continued comp gains, strong merchandise availability, margin resilience, and support for a premium retail multiple. The base case assumes TJX keeps compounding but the multiple stays near current expectations. The bearish case assumes investors lower the multiple because tariff, fuel, wage, or consumer pressure weakens the earnings path.
$195.00 to $210.00
More likely if FY2027 EPS tracks near the top of guidance, comparable sales stay around the raised outlook, operating margin stays near 12%, TJX holds above the 200-day moving average, and the stock challenges the $170.00 52-week high with rising volume.
$165.00 to $178.00
More likely if EPS compounds near a high-single-digit rate, the market values TJX near a high-20s earnings multiple, share repurchases continue, and traffic remains positive without major margin pressure.
$110.00 to $130.00
More likely if tariff or fuel costs absorb merchandise margin gains, discretionary demand slows, the Q1 FY2027 upside proves temporary, or TJX loses the 200-day moving-average zone with weaker earnings revisions.
TJX AI technical analysis
TJX AI technical analysis starts from the $157.34 July 31, 2026 close and Intellectia technical snapshots near the August 2, 2026 cutoff. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, live price, moving averages, volume, RSI, and support levels should be confirmed before trading.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $157.34 | StockAnalysis reported the July 31, 2026 close at $157.34, which is the quote used for this page. |
| Near support | $151.69 | Intellectia listed the first pivot support at $151.69 as of July 31, 2026, the first area to monitor on a pullback. |
| Deeper support | $146.44, then $140.77 | Intellectia listed $146.44 and then $140.77 as lower Fibonacci and pivot supports. A move into this area would signal a deeper correction. |
| Near resistance | $162.61 | Intellectia listed the first pivot resistance at $162.61, so reclaiming it would improve the short-term read. |
| Breakout resistance | $168.28 to $173.53, with the $170.00 52-week high in between | Intellectia listed resistance at $168.28 and $173.53. StockAnalysis reported $170.00 as the 52-week high. |
| 20-day moving average | About $154.54 | Intellectia listed the 20-day simple moving average near $154.54 on July 31, 2026, below the latest close. |
| 50-day moving average | About $157.57 | StockAnalysis placed the 50-day moving average near $157.57, right at the latest close, which keeps the short-term signal balanced. |
| 200-day moving average | About $154.45 | Intellectia and StockAnalysis both placed the 200-day moving average near $154.45, below the latest close, leaving the long-term trend intact. |
| Momentum | Positive | The stock sits about 7.4% below its 52-week high but above its major moving averages, with MACD giving a buy signal. |
| Volume | 3.77 million versus about 4.86 million 20-day average | StockAnalysis reported July 31 volume below the 20-day average, so a fresh breakout would need stronger participation. |
| Volatility | Moderate retail-equity volatility | The 52-week range of $123.78 to $170.00 and a 0.61 beta show lower-than-market volatility but meaningful drawdown risk. |
| Invalidation | Close below $151.69, then $146.44 | A decisive close below the $151.69 pivot support would weaken a trend-following setup. A break of $146.44 would require a broader thesis review. |
TJX AI trading strategy
The TJX AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a high-quality off-price retailer trading at a premium multiple. It is not personalized advice. Any setup should pair live chart confirmation with position sizing, stop rules, and updated earnings data.
Wait for TJX to hold the $154 to $157 moving-average zone and then challenge the $162.61 pivot resistance and the $170 high with improving volume. Fundamental confirmation is stronger if comparable sales, traffic, gross margin, and FY2027 EPS guidance remain firm.
A failed hold or a close back below the 20-day zone near $154 should invalidate the first trend setup.
If TJX pulls back toward $146 to $154 without a new operating thesis break, compare the entry with guidance, merchandise availability, tariff commentary, buyback pace, and peer read-throughs from ROST, TGT, COST, DG, and DLTR.
Define maximum loss and thesis failure before entry. Do not average down if earnings revisions turn negative or management lowers full-year margin expectations.
Track comparable sales by division, customer transactions, gross margin, inventory per store, fuel and freight costs, tariff offsets, store openings, capital expenditures, dividends, and repurchases. The Q2 FY2027 earnings release is scheduled for August 19, 2026.
Reduce confidence when price strength comes mainly from multiple expansion while comps slow, margins flatten, or the 200-day moving average fails.
Investment research summary
Customers pay TJX for branded apparel and home merchandise at value prices, fresh assortments, and a treasure-hunt shopping trip that encourages repeat visits.
TJX has scale, vendor access, buying expertise, distribution infrastructure, flexible inventory systems, and dense store networks. The moat is not based on patents or hard switching costs, so buying discipline and store execution remain central.
The thesis can fail if TJX loses access to quality merchandise, overpays for inventory, misreads fashion demand, cannot offset tariffs and freight costs, overexpands internationally, or sees its premium multiple compress after strong results.
Ernie Herrman has served as CEO since 2016 and spent decades inside TJX merchandising and operations. The capital allocation record is shareholder friendly, with dividends and repurchases, but buybacks create less value if valuation is stretched.
Off-price retail benefits from value-seeking consumers, brand overstock, and store-based discovery. It is still exposed to discretionary spending cycles, labor costs, global sourcing, tariffs, fuel, freight, and e-commerce alternatives.
A verified 30.61x TTM P/E, 31.72x P/FCF, 2.82x sales, and 1.22% dividend yield leave a moderate margin of safety. The base three-year scenario points near $165 to $178, while the bearish scenario points near $110 to $130 if growth and the multiple both cool.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latest close | $157.34 on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis (S&P Global Market Intelligence) | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $173.81 billion, verified from $157.34 price and 1.1047 billion shares | StockAnalysis, Macrotrends share count, Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 net sales | $14.32 billion, up 9% year over year | TJX Q1 FY2027 earnings release, Macrotrends | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 diluted EPS | $1.19, up 29% year over year | TJX Q1 FY2027 earnings release, Macrotrends | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 revenue and net income | $60.372 billion revenue and $5.494 billion net income | Macrotrends, StockAnalysis (Fiscal.ai) | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $5.58 billion cash and $14.18 billion total debt, with a net cash position of about -$8.60 billion | StockAnalysis (S&P Global Market Intelligence) | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 30.61x P/E, 31.72x P/FCF, 2.82x P/S, 1.22% dividend yield, 29.73x forward P/E | StockAnalysis TTM EPS and cash-flow data, Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical levels | 20-day SMA near $154.54, 50-day SMA near $157.57, 200-day SMA near $154.45, support near $151.69 and $146.44, resistance near $162.61 and $168.28 | Intellectia, StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong buy consensus with a $177.21 average target across 21 analysts | StockAnalysis (S&P Global Market Intelligence) | August 2, 2026 |
| Management | Ernie Herrman has been CEO since 2016 and President since 2011 | TJX Board of Directors and SEC proxy materials | August 2, 2026 |
This TJX AI stock analysis page is for informational and educational use only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and may be wrong. Always verify live market data, filings, and personal risk constraints before making investment decisions.
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