The TJX Companies, Inc. research snapshot
TJX AI stock analysis currently reads The TJX Companies as a high-quality off-price retail compounder with strong customer traffic, broad vendor access, global scale, and a valuation that already prices continued execution. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, TJX last closed at $154.11, market capitalization was about $170.25 billion using 1.1047 billion shares outstanding, and first-quarter Fiscal 2027 net sales rose 9% to $14.3 billion with comparable sales up 6%. This page uses scenario analysis, not a certain stock price prediction, and it is an informational tool rather than investment advice.
Current price
$154.11
Market cap
$170.25 billion
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
High-quality off-price retailer with strong execution and premium valuation risk
Trend status
Long-term uptrend, short-term pullback below several near-term averages
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | TJX operates the leading off-price apparel and home fashions model across TJ Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods, Winners, TK Maxx, Homesense, Sierra, and related banners. Customers pay for branded merchandise at value prices and a recurring treasure-hunt shopping trip. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from scale buying, approximately 21,000 vendors, flexible sourcing, fast inventory turns, distribution capability, store density, and trained merchants. Switching costs are low, so the moat depends on execution. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Ernie Herrman has led TJX since 2016 and has decades of TJX merchandising and operating experience. Capital allocation remains shareholder friendly through dividends and buybacks, including $1.1 billion returned in Q1 FY2027. | High |
| Financial trend | FY2026 revenue was $60.37 billion and net income was $5.49 billion. Q1 FY2027 net sales increased 9% to $14.32 billion, net income rose to $1.33 billion, and diluted EPS rose 29% to $1.19. | High |
| Valuation | At $154.11 and $5.14 TTM EPS, the verified P/E is 29.98x. Verified P/FCF is 31.07x and P/S is 2.77x, so the stock needs continued comp growth, margin stability, and buybacks to justify the multiple. | High for math, medium for forward value |
| Technical trend | TJX is still above its 200-day moving average in several public technical snapshots, but the latest close sits below the 20-day and 50-day areas after retreating from the $170.00 52-week high. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium. Tariffs, freight, fuel, wages, fashion misses, inventory mistakes, weak discretionary spending, international execution, and valuation compression can all reduce returns. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High confidence for reported financials, cash, share count, market cap, and valuation math. Lower confidence for future traffic, merchandise availability, tariff offsets, and the market multiple. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. TJX has an unusually strong retail model, but the current price offers less margin of safety if comp growth cools or the market stops paying a premium for off-price quality. | Medium |
TJX AI stock forecast
The TJX AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $154.11 close. The bullish case requires continued comp gains, strong merchandise availability, margin resilience, and support for a premium retail multiple. The base case assumes TJX keeps compounding but the multiple stays near current expectations. The bearish case assumes investors lower the multiple because tariff, fuel, wage, or consumer pressure weakens the earnings path.
$195.00 to $219.00
More likely if FY2027 EPS tracks above the $5.08 to $5.15 guidance range, comparable sales remain near or above the raised 3% to 4% outlook, operating margin stays close to 12%, and TJX retakes the $170.00 high with strong volume.
$165.00 to $176.30
More likely if EPS compounds near a high-single-digit rate, the market values TJX near a high-20s earnings multiple, share repurchases continue, and traffic remains positive without major margin pressure.
$120.00 to $135.00
More likely if the Q1 FY2027 upside proves temporary, tariffs or fuel costs absorb merchandise margin gains, discretionary demand slows, or TJX loses the 200-day moving-average zone with weaker earnings revisions.
TJX AI technical analysis
TJX AI technical analysis starts from the $154.11 July 7, 2026 close and public technical snapshots available near the July 8, 2026 cutoff. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, live price, moving averages, volume, RSI, and support levels should be confirmed before trading.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $154.11 | MarketWatch reported the July 7, 2026 close at $154.11, which is the quote used for this page. |
| Near support | $151.21 to $156.71 | ChartMill showed a support zone formed by trend lines and moving averages. The latest close sits inside this zone, making it the first area to monitor. |
| Deeper support | $144.54, then $138.55 to $140.13 | ChartMill listed $144.54 as horizontal support and $138.55 to $140.13 as a lower support zone. A move into this area would signal a deeper correction. |
| Near resistance | $157.00 to $160.44 | Public technical snapshots showed 50-day and 20-day moving-average resistance in this range, so reclaiming it would improve the short-term read. |
| Breakout resistance | $170.00 | MarketWatch reported $170.00 as the 52-week high reached on June 11, 2026. |
| 20-day moving average | About $160.44 | Intellectia listed the 20-day simple moving average near $160.44 on July 7, 2026, above the latest close. |
| 50-day moving average | About $157.05 to $157.41 | TipRanks and Intellectia showed nearby 50-day and 60-day averages above the latest close, which keeps the short-term signal cautious. |
| 200-day moving average | About $152.41 to $153.25 | TipRanks and Intellectia both placed the 200-day moving average just below the latest close, leaving the long-term trend intact but close to a test. |
| Momentum | Mixed | The stock is about 9.35% below its 52-week high but still well above deeper support, suggesting a pullback inside a longer-term advance. |
| Volume | 5.2 million versus about 6.1 million 50-day average | MarketWatch reported July 7 volume below the 50-day average, so a fresh breakout would need stronger participation. |
| Volatility | Moderate retail-equity volatility | The 52-week high at $170.00 and public 52-week low references near $118 show meaningful drawdown risk despite strong fundamentals. |
| Invalidation | Close below $152.00 to $153.00, then $144.54 | A decisive close below the 200-day zone would weaken a trend-following setup. A break of $144.54 would require a broader thesis review. |
TJX AI trading strategy
The TJX AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a high-quality off-price retailer trading at a premium multiple. It is not personalized advice. Any setup should pair live chart confirmation with position sizing, stop rules, and updated earnings data.
Wait for TJX to reclaim the $157 to $160 moving-average area and then challenge the $170 high with improving volume. Fundamental confirmation is stronger if comparable sales, traffic, gross margin, and FY2027 EPS guidance remain firm.
A failed reclaim or a close below the 200-day zone near $152 to $153 should invalidate the first trend setup.
If TJX pulls back toward $144 to $153 without a new operating thesis break, compare the entry with guidance, merchandise availability, tariff commentary, buyback pace, and peer read-throughs from ROST, TGT, COST, DG, and DLTR.
Define maximum loss and thesis failure before entry. Do not average down if earnings revisions turn negative or management lowers full-year margin expectations.
Track comparable sales by division, customer transactions, gross margin, inventory per store, fuel and freight costs, tariff offsets, store openings, capital expenditures, dividends, and repurchases.
Reduce confidence when price strength comes mainly from multiple expansion while comps slow, margins flatten, or the 200-day moving average fails.
Investment research summary
Customers pay TJX for branded apparel and home merchandise at value prices, fresh assortments, and a treasure-hunt shopping trip that encourages repeat visits.
TJX has scale, vendor access, buying expertise, distribution infrastructure, flexible inventory systems, and dense store networks. The moat is not based on patents or hard switching costs, so buying discipline and store execution remain central.
The thesis can fail if TJX loses access to quality merchandise, overpays for inventory, misreads fashion demand, cannot offset tariffs and freight costs, overexpands internationally, or sees its premium multiple compress after strong results.
Ernie Herrman has served as CEO since 2016 and spent decades inside TJX merchandising and operations. The capital allocation record is shareholder friendly, with dividends and repurchases, but buybacks create less value if valuation is stretched.
Off-price retail benefits from value-seeking consumers, brand overstock, and store-based discovery. It is still exposed to discretionary spending cycles, labor costs, global sourcing, tariffs, fuel, freight, and e-commerce alternatives.
A verified 29.98x TTM P/E, 31.07x P/FCF, 2.77x sales, and 1.10% dividend yield leave a moderate margin of safety. The base three-year scenario points near $176.30, while the bearish scenario points near $120.00 if growth and the multiple both cool.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latest close | $154.11 on July 7, 2026 | MarketWatch | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $170.25 billion, verified from $154.11 price and 1.1047 billion shares | TJX Q1 FY2027 10-Q, Morningstar rounded share count, StockTitan rounded share count, Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 net sales | $14.323 billion, up 9% year over year | TJX Q1 FY2027 earnings release and Form 10-Q | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 diluted EPS | $1.19, up 29% year over year | TJX Q1 FY2027 earnings release and Form 10-Q | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2026 revenue and net income | $60.372 billion revenue and $5.494 billion net income | TJX Fiscal 2026 Form 10-K, StockAnalysis, Macrotrends | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $5.580 billion cash, $0.999 billion current long-term debt, and $1.871 billion long-term debt at May 2, 2026 | TJX Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q | July 8, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 29.98x P/E, 31.07x P/FCF, 2.77x P/S, 1.10% dividend yield | StockAnalysis TTM EPS and cash-flow data, TJX 10-Q share count, Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical levels | 20-day SMA near $160.44, 50-day or 60-day area near $157, 200-day SMA near $152 to $153 | Intellectia, TipRanks, ChartMill, MarketWatch | July 8, 2026 |
| Management | Ernie Herrman has been CEO since 2016 and President since 2011 | TJX Board of Directors and SEC proxy materials | July 8, 2026 |
This TJX AI stock analysis page is for informational and educational use only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and may be wrong. Always verify live market data, filings, and personal risk constraints before making investment decisions.
