Wise Group plc research snapshot
WSE AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Wise Group as a scaled cross-border money platform with strong operating momentum and a new US regulatory overhang. The stock closed at $12.00 on July 31, 2026, down 0.50% on the day, with a market capitalization near $12.21 billion verified during this full refresh as $12.00 times about 1.018 billion shares with 0.05% deviation against the StockAnalysis.com statistics page. Q1 FY27 results, released July 16, 2026, delivered net revenue of $714.0 million up 25% year over year, active customers of 11.9 million up 21%, cross-border volume of $69.3 billion up 26%, customer holdings of $41.2 billion up 31%, and a cross-border take rate of 0.50%, the lowest on record, with FY27 guidance reiterated for net revenue growth around the middle of the 15% to 20% constant currency range and an income before tax margin around the top of the 20% to 25% range. On July 24, 2026, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency denied Wise application to become a national trust bank, citing anti-money laundering control deficiencies and management expertise gaps, and the stock fell as much as 11% in early trading before recovering; Wise plans to reapply under the Genius Act stablecoin framework and its US business continues to operate under existing money transmitter licenses across 48 states and four territories. The stock trades at about 24.48x trailing GAAP EPS and 20.69x forward earnings, below the 200-day moving average near $12.36 and just above the 50-day near $11.95, with a Strong Buy consensus from 11 analysts at an average target of $17.02. The WSE AI stock forecast uses scenarios, not a price promise, and this page is for information only, not investment advice.
Current price
$12.00 close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$12.21 billion using the July 31 market-data reference
AI score
69 / 100
Rating
High-quality cross-border payments platform facing a US regulatory setback
Trend status
Sideways below the 200-day moving average after the July 24 regulatory selloff
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Wise moves and manages money for personal and business customers across borders through accounts, transfers, cards, and related multi-currency services, with Q1 FY27 net revenue of $714.0 million up 25% year over year and a FY2026 net revenue of about $2.50 billion. | High |
| Moat | Direct payment connections, licenses, transparent pricing brand, product breadth, and growing customer holdings support the moat, but the OCC denial shows licenses are not automatic, and banks and other fintechs still compete hard on price and features. | Medium-high |
| Management | Co-founder and CEO Kristo Kaarmann has kept the company focused on low-cost money movement, product expansion, and buybacks rather than a regular dividend, but the failed US trust bank application and prior AML penalties raise questions about regulatory execution in the US. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q1 FY27 active customers rose 21% to 11.9 million, cross-border volume rose 26% to $69.3 billion, customer holdings rose 31% to $41.2 billion, and net revenue rose 25% to $714.0 million, with FY27 guidance reiterated for revenue growth around the middle of the 15% to 20% range. | High |
| Valuation | At the $12.00 July 31 price reference, the stock trades at about 24.48x trailing GAAP EPS, 20.69x forward earnings, 4.88x sales, 6.34x book value, and 8.84x EV/EBITDA. Reported free-cash-flow metrics are distorted by customer-balance mechanics and should not be treated as owner earnings. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The $12.00 July 31 close sat just above the 50-day moving average near $11.95 but below the 200-day moving average near $12.36, with RSI near 47.28, a 52-week range of $10.36 to $17.47, and price down about 12.73% over the trailing 52 weeks. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risks include the OCC denial of the national trust bank application, AML and compliance scrutiny including a Belgian investigation and prior US state penalties, take-rate compression, interest-rate sensitivity on customer balances, competition, dual-class control, and multiple compression if growth slows. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Reported KPI and earnings confidence is high and the market-data arithmetic cross-validated, but the US regulatory path, short Nasdaq history, and the correct long-term earnings multiple remain uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty: Wise is a strong business with durable growth drivers, but the failed US trust charter, AML scrutiny, valuation, and interest income still decide whether the stock is attractive at current prices. | Medium |
WSE AI stock forecast
The WSE AI stock forecast uses the $12.00 July 31 close, $0.48 TTM EPS, and a three-year scenario model calculated with Pineify financial_rigor.py. The model is a sensitivity exercise, not a target or investment recommendation.
$19 to $22 over 3 years
More likely if net revenue compounds near the top of the 15% to 20% medium-term range, Wise Business and card and account products keep diversifying income, the Genius Act reapplication opens a clearer US path, take-rate pressure stabilizes, margins stay strong, and investors accept an earnings multiple near 27x.
$13 to $16 over 3 years
More likely if EPS compounds near 10% to 12%, FY27 revenue grows around the middle of management guidance, customer holdings and card spend keep rising, and the market values WSE near 20x to 22x earnings, consistent with the FY2027 consensus EPS of about $0.59.
$7 to $9 over 3 years
More likely if take rates fall faster, interest income normalizes lower, US regulatory friction limits growth after the OCC denial, AML or legal pressure intensifies, or the multiple falls toward 14x earnings.
WSE AI technical analysis
WSE AI technical analysis is neutral to cautious at the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $12.00 on July 31, 2026, just above the 50-day moving average near $11.95 but below the 200-day moving average near $12.36, with RSI near 47.28. Because US trading only started on May 11, 2026, longer moving averages and volume patterns should be treated as provisional, and the July 24 OCC denial is a fresh catalyst that reset the near-term range.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $12.00 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses about 1.018 billion shares. |
| Near support | $11.90 to $12.00 | The 50-day moving average near $11.95 forms the first trend checkpoint after the post-denial selloff. |
| Deeper support | $10.36 to $11.50 | The 52-week low near $10.36 is the deeper risk zone, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Near resistance | $12.36 to $13.00 | The 200-day moving average near $12.36 caps the immediate upside; reclaiming it would improve the trend reading. |
| Major resistance | $14.50 to $17.47 | The 52-week high near $17.47 remains the upper range reference from the May 2026 listing period. |
| 50-day moving average | $11.95 | A sustained move back below it would weaken the short-term support story. |
| 200-day moving average | $12.36 | Price is below this level; a sustained reclaim would signal a recovery in the medium-term framework, with the caveat that Nasdaq history is short. |
| Momentum | RSI 47.28 | This is a neutral reading, neither oversold nor overbought, and not by itself a reliable signal after a news-driven drop. |
| Volume | 20-day average volume about 1.13 million shares | Watch volume around earnings, the Genius Act reapplication, AML and legal updates, and interest-rate commentary. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.52, 52-week range $10.36 to $17.47 | Beta is low versus the market, but the 52-week range shows the stock can move sharply on news such as the July 24 OCC denial. |
| Short interest | 3.42 million shares, 0.33% of shares out, 2.64 days to cover | Short positioning is light, so a squeeze is not the main driver of any upside move. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $11.50 | A break through the post-listing mid-range followed by a loss of $11.50 should reduce confidence in a trend-following setup, with the $10.36 low as the deeper line. |
WSE AI trading strategy
The WSE AI trading strategy is a non-personalized research framework. It pairs chart confirmation with customer growth, volume, take rate, interest income, margin, buyback, and US regulatory data rather than relying on one price level.
Look for WSE to reclaim the 200-day moving average near $12.36 with improving volume and evidence that customer growth, cross-border volume, and non-transfer revenue remain healthy after the OCC denial.
Invalidate if price loses $11.50 on sustained weakness or if quarterly data show sharper take-rate pressure, weaker volume growth, a material margin miss, or new US regulatory or AML developments.
If WSE pulls back toward the $10.36 to $11.50 area while FY27 guidance and account KPIs remain intact, compare the rebound with peer payments stocks, rate expectations, and the Genius Act reapplication timeline, not price alone.
Do not assume a lower price is value if customer growth slows, interest income falls sharply, regulatory friction rises, or the OCC denial slows US expansion more than expected.
Track active customers, cross-border volume, take rate, card spend, customer holdings, net revenue mix, income-before-tax margin, interest-income policy, buyback execution, the US trust charter reapplication, and AML or legal developments.
Reduce conviction if growth falls below the medium-term range while competition, regulation, or interest-rate normalization compresses earnings quality.
Investment research summary
Wise helps people and businesses send, hold, spend, and receive money across currencies at transparent prices. Customers pay because the product is often cheaper and clearer than bank FX, and because multi-currency accounts, cards, and business tools reduce friction in daily cross-border money use.
The moat comes from direct payment system connections, licenses, brand trust around transparent pricing, product breadth beyond one-off transfers, and growing customer holdings that make the account stickier. The OCC denial is a reminder that licenses must be earned and can be denied, and large banks plus rival fintechs remain competitive.
The thesis can fail if take rates keep falling, interest income normalizes lower, the failed US trust bank application becomes a pattern of regulatory friction, a major license or AML issue hits, banks or other fintechs match the product experience, growth slows enough to force multiple compression, or governance and legal headlines raise the equity risk premium.
Kristo Kaarmann remains the public face of a founder-led product culture. Capital allocation currently emphasizes growth investment, employee share-trust purchases, and a new share purchase program expected to exceed $500 million rather than a cash dividend. Dual-class control means shareholders need comfort with founder influence, and the OCC decision raises questions about US regulatory execution.
Cross-border money movement, multi-currency living, and digital business payments are long-cycle digitization trends. Wise is still small relative to the total amount of money that moves globally, but competition, interest rates, and regulation mean the trend alone does not guarantee superior returns.
The three-scenario model produced roughly $20.8, $13.4, and $7.3 in bullish, base, and bearish cases before capital returns. That spread shows why business quality alone is not a margin of safety: growth durability, the US regulatory path, interest-income quality, and the exit multiple matter as much as the current growth rate.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| WSE price and market data | $12.00 close on July 31, 2026, down 0.50% on the day; market cap $12.21 billion; 52-week range $10.36 to $17.47; 52-week change about -12.73%; beta 0.52 | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Market-cap arithmetic | $12.21 billion reported versus $12.22 billion calculated from $12.00 x about 1.018 billion shares, a 0.05% deviation | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Share count and ownership references | About 1.03 billion shares outstanding, float about 722.5 million, insider ownership about 18.69%, institutional ownership about 68.84% | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 FY27 operating KPIs | 11.9 million active customers (+21%), $69.3 billion cross-border volume (+26%, +24% constant currency), $41.2 billion customer holdings (+31%), 77% instant transfers (+7 pps) | Wise Group Q1 FY27 results release | July 16, 2026 |
| Q1 FY27 revenue and take rate | Net revenue $714.0 million (+25%), transaction revenue $540.9 million (+27%), cross-border take rate 0.50% down 2 bps year over year and the lowest on record | Wise Group Q1 FY27 results release | July 16, 2026 |
| FY27 guidance | Reiterated net revenue growth around the middle of the 15% to 20% medium-term range on a constant currency basis and income before tax margin around the top of the 20% to 25% range | Wise Group Q1 FY27 results release and earnings call | July 16, 2026 |
| FY2026 full-year results | FY2026 net revenue about $2.50 billion (+19%), income before tax $660.4 million at about a 26% margin, net income about $498.7 million, cross-border volume $243.5 billion (+31%), active customers 18.9 million (+21%), customer holdings $39.0 billion (+40%) | Wise Group FY2026 results release | June 25, 2026 |
| US trust bank application denial | On July 24, 2026, the OCC denied Wise national trust bank application, citing significant supervisory and compliance concerns including US anti-money laundering control deficiencies and management and board expertise gaps; Wise plans to reapply under the Genius Act stablecoin framework and its US business continues under existing money transmitter licenses across 48 states and four territories | OCC decision letter and Forbes coverage | July 24, 2026 |
| Market reaction to the denial | Shares fell as much as 11% in early July 24 trading in London before recovering some losses; analysts maintained targets after the news, including Peel Hunt Hold at $12 and Jefferies Buy at $17 on July 24 | Reuters, MarketWatch, WSJ, and StockAnalysis forecast | July 24, 2026 |
| AML and legal context | Wise agreed in 2025 to a $4.2 million penalty to settle allegations by regulators in six US states over shortcomings in its anti-money laundering program, and it is responding to queries from the Belgian prosecutor after a report of about 500 million euros of suspicious transactions across Europe | Forbes and prior press coverage | July 24, 2026 |
| Valuation arithmetic | About 24.48x trailing GAAP EPS, 20.69x forward earnings, 4.88x sales, 6.34x book value, 8.84x EV/EBITDA, and no regular dividend yield at the $12.00 July 31 reference | Pineify financial_rigor.py using StockAnalysis inputs | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance-sheet references | About $5.39 billion cash and cash equivalents, $483.7 million total debt, about $4.90 billion net cash ($4.78 per share), equity of about $1.93 billion, book value per share $1.88, ROE 27.23%, ROIC 31.93% | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash flow distortion note | Operating cash flow of about $7.55 billion and free cash flow of about $7.53 billion over the TTM, inflated by customer-balance mechanics; P/FCF of 1.62 and FCF margin of 301% are not owner earnings and should not be used for valuation | StockAnalysis cash flow statement | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy with an average price target of $17.02 across 11 analysts, low $15, median $16.6, high $19.5; July 2026 mix of 7 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, 1 Hold | StockAnalysis forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2027 and FY2028 consensus estimates | FY2027 revenue estimate $2.94 billion with EPS $0.59, FY2028 revenue $3.49 billion with EPS $0.68, forward PE for FY2027 about 20.47 | StockAnalysis forecast financial forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day moving average near $11.95, 200-day moving average near $12.36, 14-day RSI near 47.28, 20-day average volume about 1.13 million shares, short interest 3.42 million shares (0.33% of shares out, 2.64 days to cover) | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Listing context | Nasdaq Class A listing under WSE began May 11, 2026, shifting the primary listing from London to New York, while shares continue to trade on the London Stock Exchange as WISE | Wise newsroom dual-listing announcement and Reuters | May 11, 2026 |
This WSE AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios use available public data as of August 3, 2026, are not guaranteed, and can be wrong if payments demand, US regulatory outcomes, interest rates, regulation, competition, valuation, company execution, or market conditions change.
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