The Kroger Co. research snapshot
KR AI stock analysis reads Kroger as a cash-generative defensive food retailer trading near the low end of its 52-week range as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, with the stock closing near $57.74 on July 31, 2026 at a market capitalization near $35.37 billion. Q1 FY2026, reported June 18, showed identical sales without fuel growth of 1.0%, adjusted EPS of $1.58, adjusted eCommerce sales up 19%, and Kroger Precision Marketing profit up over 20%, while management reaffirmed full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $5.10 to $5.30. The board then raised the dividend 11% to $1.56 per year on June 25, the 20th consecutive year of increases. The stock still trades below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages and close to the $54.15 52-week low set after the June report, with a forward PE near 11x, a free cash flow yield near 8%, and a consensus analyst price target of $70.64. The pending $1.65 billion Giant Eagle acquisition, grocery price competition, pharmacy reimbursement pressure, and labor costs remain the main execution and risk items. The analysis supports a scenario framework, not a certain price prediction, and is for information only.
Current price
$57.74
Market cap
$35.37 billion
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
Defensive value, weak chart
Trend status
Weak-to-bearish trend below the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages near the 52-week low
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Kroger sells recurring food, pharmacy, fuel, private-label, retail media, and loyalty-driven grocery trips through a large U.S. store base, with TTM revenue near $148.65 billion. | High |
| Moat | Store density, local banners, customer data, private labels, pharmacy ties, and procurement scale help, but Walmart, Costco, Aldi, Amazon, and regional grocers cap pricing power. | Medium-high |
| Management | Greg Foran is running a cost-and-cash discipline agenda. Q1 FY2026 delivered 1.0% identical sales without fuel, adjusted EPS of $1.58, 19% adjusted eCommerce growth, a reaffirmed 2026 guidance range, and an 11% dividend increase, with Giant Eagle integration the next big test. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q1 FY2026 sales were $46.121 billion, identical sales without fuel rose 1.0%, adjusted EPS was $1.58 versus $1.49 a year ago, and 2026 adjusted EPS guidance was reaffirmed at $5.10 to $5.30. | High |
| Valuation | KR screens inexpensive on forward earnings near $5.22 with a forward PE near 11x and a free cash flow yield near 8%, but the trailing GAAP PE near 35x is elevated because recent earnings include impairment and adjustment items. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | KR closed near $57.74 on July 31, 2026, below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 46 and a 14-day ADX near 18, so the chart is weak and range-bound rather than trending. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate: food demand is defensive, while grocery price competition, reimbursement pressure, labor, regulatory review, and Giant Eagle acquisition execution are real constraints. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for reported financials, market data, share count, guidance, and deal terms that cross-validated to within 0.01% on market cap math. Medium for forward margin and market-share judgments because grocery pricing and consumer behavior can change quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The page gives a research framework and scenario ranges, not a buy or sell instruction, and a thin-margin competitive sector limits how much conviction valuation can add. | Medium |
KR AI stock forecast
The KR AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $57.74 and the reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint of $5.20. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $50, a base area near $72, and a bullish area near $85 before dividends, using adjusted EPS growth of 2%, 5%, and 8% and exit multiples of 9x, 12x, and 13x over three years. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$78 to $88
More likely if identical sales excluding fuel reaccelerate toward 2%, adjusted eCommerce stays profitable, alternative profit businesses keep expanding, Giant Eagle closes cleanly, and the market awards a higher earnings multiple to growing adjusted EPS.
$66 to $76
More likely if Kroger compounds adjusted EPS at a mid single-digit pace, free cash flow funds dividends and buybacks, and the stock holds an earnings multiple near 11x to 12x, roughly in line with the $70.64 consensus target.
$44 to $54
More likely if Walmart, Costco, Aldi, and local competitors force heavier price investment, pharmacy pressure persists, labor costs rise, or the Giant Eagle transaction creates integration or regulatory drag.
KR AI technical analysis
KR AI technical analysis is weak-to-bearish as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed near $57.74 on July 31, 2026, below its 20-day moving average near $58.38, 50-day moving average near $60.28, and 200-day moving average near $65.19, with a 52-week low of $54.15 set after the June earnings report. The chart needs a reclaim of the moving-average cluster before it becomes a stronger trend-following setup.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $57.74 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 612.65 million shares outstanding. |
| Near support | $54.15 to $56 | The 52-week low of $54.15, set in June 2026 after the Q1 report, is the primary downside marker, with the $54 to $56 zone as the first stress area. |
| Next support | $56.90 to $57.90 | Recent day range lows near $56.91 and pivot reference points near $57.90 form minor short-term support just below the close. |
| Near resistance | $58.38 to $60.28 | The 20-day moving average near $58.38 and the 50-day moving average near $60.28 frame the first resistance band above price. |
| Upper resistance | $64.97 to $65.19 | The 100-day moving average near $64.97 and the 200-day moving average near $65.19 mark the heavier confirmation area. |
| 20-day moving average | $58.38 | Barchart placed the 20-day moving average near $58.38 on July 31, 2026, just above the closing price. |
| 50-day moving average | $60.28 | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart both reported the 50-day moving average near $60.28, above price and keeping the medium-term trend under pressure. |
| 200-day moving average | $65.19 | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart both reported the 200-day trend line near $65.19, well above price, so the longer-term chart remains bearish. |
| Momentum | RSI near 46, ADX near 18 | StockAnalysis.com reported 14-day RSI near 46.03 and Barchart a 14-day ADX near 17.8, so momentum is neutral and the move is range-bound rather than trending. |
| Volume | About 7.3 million average shares | StockAnalysis.com listed 20-day average volume near 7.31 million shares on July 31, 2026, useful for judging whether any breakout is real. |
| Volatility | Moderate, ATR near $1.81 | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 34% and a 14-day average true range near $1.81, so position sizing should account for earnings-driven swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $54.15 | A decisive close below the 52-week low of $54.15 would extend the downtrend; a reclaim of the 50-day moving average near $60.28 would shift the bias to neutral. |
KR AI trading strategy
The KR AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for trading and watching a defensive grocery retailer. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, filings, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for KR to reclaim the $60 to $60.50 area above the 50-day moving average and to hold with rising volume before treating the chart as a confirmed recovery from the $54 to $58 range.
A daily close back below the reclaimed moving-average zone or a fresh test of the $54.15 low should trigger a stop and review.
If KR holds the $54.15 to $56 support zone without new negative grocery or guidance news, compare the pullback against Q1 momentum, adjusted EPS guidance, free cash flow yield, dividend coverage, and buyback pace before acting.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because grocery price competition and pharmacy reimbursement can turn a support zone into a value trap.
Track identical sales excluding fuel, pharmacy reimbursement, adjusted eCommerce operating profit, alternative profit businesses, free cash flow, buybacks, net total debt to adjusted EBITDA, and Giant Eagle regulatory milestones.
Reduce confidence if EPS growth relies mainly on buybacks rather than operating cash flow, or if the net total debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio drifts toward the 2.30 to 2.50 target ceiling.
Investment research summary
Kroger monetizes recurring grocery trips. Customers pay for food availability, pharmacy convenience, local banners, private-label value, fuel rewards, personalization, and trusted store proximity.
The moat comes from store density, procurement scale, distribution, private labels, loyalty data, retail media, and pharmacy relationships. It is durable but not unbreakable because grocery customers compare prices constantly.
The thesis fails if price investment does not drive traffic, pharmacy economics worsen, digital profitability disappoints, labor costs rise faster than productivity, or the Giant Eagle acquisition consumes capital without enough synergy.
Greg Foran has strong large-retail operating credentials from Walmart U.S. and Air New Zealand. The near-term test is whether disciplined cost and cash management, the dividend raise, buybacks, and Giant Eagle integration can lift identical sales and margins.
Food retail is essential and recurring, but the industry is shifting toward value pricing, data-driven promotions, retail media, delivery, pickup, and private label. Scale matters, but the consumer still has many substitutes.
KR looks modestly valued on forward adjusted EPS near $5.22 and a free cash flow yield near 8%, yet trailing GAAP earnings are distorted by impairment and adjustment items. Margin of safety improves if cash flow, buybacks, dividend coverage, and low leverage remain intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $57.74 at close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com KR quote | July 31, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $35.37 billion, verified as $57.74 x 612.65 million shares with 0.01% deviation | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 612.65 million, down 8.73% year over year | StockAnalysis.com KR statistics | July 31, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2026 results | $46.121 billion sales, 1.0% identical sales without fuel, operating profit of $1,407 million, GAAP EPS of $1.46, adjusted EPS of $1.58, adjusted FIFO operating profit of $1,544 million | Kroger Q1 FY2026 earnings release | June 18, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2026 growth drivers | Adjusted eCommerce sales grew 19% and Kroger Precision Marketing profit grew over 20% | Kroger Q1 FY2026 earnings release | June 18, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance | Identical sales without fuel of 1.0% to 2.0%, FIFO operating profit of $5.0 billion to $5.2 billion, adjusted EPS of $5.10 to $5.30, free cash flow of $2.7 billion to $2.9 billion, CapEx of $3.8 billion to $4.0 billion | Kroger Q1 FY2026 earnings release guidance | June 18, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | Revenue of $147.642 billion and net earnings attributable to Kroger of $1.016 billion | Kroger FY2025 results release and StockAnalysis.com | August 2, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash of $218 million plus temporary cash investments of $2,655 million as of May 23, 2026, with net total debt to adjusted EBITDA of 1.75x | Kroger Q1 FY2026 earnings tables | June 18, 2026 |
| Dividend increase | Board raised the dividend 11% from $1.40 to $1.56 per year, the 20th consecutive year of increases | Kroger dividend announcement via PR Newswire | June 25, 2026 |
| Giant Eagle transaction | $1.65 billion purchase price, announced July 1, 2026, expected close in 2027 subject to regulatory clearance | Kroger Giant Eagle acquisition release | July 1, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $70.64 across 24 analysts, low $58 and high $86, median $71.50 | StockAnalysis.com KR forecast | July 17, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 11 Strong Buy, 0 Buy, 13 Hold, 0 Sell out of 24 analysts | StockAnalysis.com KR forecast recommendation trends | July 17, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Wells Fargo $58 (Hold, July 17), Telsey Advisory $78 (Buy, July 9), Evercore ISI $78 (Buy, July 7), BMO Capital $60 (Hold, July 6), Goldman Sachs $72 (Buy, July 2) | StockAnalysis.com KR forecast and TipRanks | July 17, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate $151.10B with adjusted EPS $5.22, FY2027 revenue $153.72B with adjusted EPS $5.54 | StockAnalysis.com KR forecast financial forecast | July 17, 2026 |
| Valuation check | Trailing PE 35.34x, forward PE 10.98x, PS 0.24x, PB 5.47x, P/FCF 12.49x, EV/EBITDA 9.73x, dividend yield 2.70% | financial_rigor.py valuation verification and StockAnalysis.com | August 2, 2026 |
| Trailing free cash flow | Operating cash flow of $6.94 billion, capital expenditures of $4.10 billion, free cash flow of $2.83 billion, or $4.62 per share | StockAnalysis.com KR cash flow statement | August 1, 2026 |
| Short interest | 29.34 million shares short, 4.79% of shares outstanding, 2.91 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com KR statistics short selling | July 31, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day SMA near $58.38, 50-day SMA near $60.28, 100-day SMA near $64.97, 200-day SMA near $65.19, 14-day RSI near 46.03, 14-day ADX near 17.8 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | July 31, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $54.15 to $76.58, with the stock down 16.68% over the past 52 weeks | StockAnalysis.com KR quote | July 31, 2026 |
This KR AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, legal developments, market moves, or macro conditions.
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