WaFd, Inc. research snapshot
WAFD AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads WaFd as a Seattle-based regional bank with 210 branches across nine western states that resumed active loan growth and is executing the Build 2030 pivot away from mortgage lending and toward small business and commercial banking. The stock closed at $37.36 on August 3, 2026, up 1.60%, with a market capitalization near $2.76 billion and a trailing P/E of about 11.8x on $3.17 TTM EPS. The Q3 fiscal 2026 report, released July 16, 2026, showed diluted EPS of $0.84, up 15% year over year, a stable net interest margin of 2.81%, an efficiency ratio that improved to 53.7%, CET1 of 11.4%, and active loan portfolio growth of 10% linked quarter led by C&I originations of $741 million, while criticized loans rose to 4.9% of net loans and a $54 million doubtful C&I relationship is expected to be sold by September 30, 2026. The WAFD AI stock forecast is modestly positive in scenarios where credit holds, the margin stays near 2.8%, active loans keep growing 8% to 12%, and the Build 2030 deposit strategy lifts non-interest-bearing deposits from the current 12.6% toward the 20% target. At 0.94x book value and 1.11x tangible book value, the stock offers a 2.89% dividend yield but has already recovered about 42% from the $26.31 low, leaving a moderate rather than wide margin of safety. This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$37.36 at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, up 0.59 or 1.60% from the $36.77 July 31 close, after opening at $37.10 and trading in a session range of $37.01 to $37.43, with an after-hours quote of $37.30, down 0.06 or 0.16%
Market cap
$2.76 billion reported by Google Finance and StockAnalysis.com at the August 3, 2026 market close, matching the $37.36 price times 73.95 million shares outstanding
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
Hold-rated regional bank with resumed loan growth and stable margin
Trend status
Positive but consolidating below the $39.49 52-week high, above both estimated moving averages with a below-unity beta of 0.83, after a 42% recovery from the $26.31 low
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | WaFd operates about 210 branches across Washington, Oregon, California, Arizona, Idaho, Nevada, Utah, New Mexico, and Texas. The bank exited mortgage lending in January 2025 and is focused on commercial real estate, construction, multifamily, C&I, and consumer lending under the Build 2030 plan, with active loans growing 10% linked quarter in Q3 fiscal 2026. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from relationship-based core deposits at 80.6% of total deposits, a 210-branch western-state footprint, and regulated banking licenses. Non-interest-bearing deposits are only 12.6% of the mix, and the largest 25 U.S. banks continue to pull deposits from smaller institutions, so the franchise advantage is moderate and under competitive pressure. | Medium |
| Management | Brent Beardall has served as President and CEO since 2016 and has been with the bank for more than two decades. Management completed the Luther Burbank acquisition, exited mortgage lending, resumed loan growth, repurchased 4.7 million shares at $30.99 or 101% of tangible book value in fiscal 2026, and is executing the Build 2030 deposit and C&I strategy, though the pivot execution is still unproven. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Fiscal 2025 net income was $211.44 million on about $717 million revenue, up from $185.42 million in fiscal 2024. TTM net income through June 30, 2026 reached $241.85 million with EPS of $3.17. Q3 fiscal 2026 diluted EPS of $0.84 rose 15% year over year with a stable 2.81% margin and a 53.7% efficiency ratio. | High |
| Valuation | At $37.36, financial_rigor.py calculates 11.79x TTM EPS, 0.94x book value, 1.11x tangible book value, and a 2.89% dividend yield. This is a reasonable valuation below book value for a regional bank with improving fundamentals, but the stock has already rerated from the $26.31 low, so further upside depends on earnings growth and credit outcomes rather than multiple expansion. | High |
| Technical trend | WAFD closed at $37.36 on August 3, 2026, about 5.4% below the 52-week high of $39.49, above its estimated 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with RSI likely between 55 and 65. The stock recovered about 42% from the $26.31 low and is consolidating below the high on average volume near 664,000 shares with a below-unity beta of 0.83. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Main risks are criticized loans rising to 4.9% of net loans, the $54 million doubtful C&I relationship awaiting sale by September 30, 2026, commercial real estate and construction losses in a western-state downturn, deposit outflows to the largest banks, net interest margin compression, and pivot execution risk. Credit metrics are elevated relative to prior quarters even though overall levels remain moderate. | High |
| AI confidence | High for reported facts, balance sheet data, and calculations. Medium for the forward view because the C&I pivot, credit cycle, deposit competition, and rate path create a wide range of possible outcomes for a regional bank of this size. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low to medium. WAFD is reasonably valued below book value with resumed loan growth and strong capital, but rising criticized loans, a doubtful C&I credit, and the unfinished Build 2030 pivot keep certainty moderate. The investment case depends on credit holding while active loan growth and the deposit strategy scale. | Medium |
WAFD AI stock forecast
The WAFD AI stock forecast uses the $37.36 reference price and $3.17 TTM EPS. A three-year financial_rigor.py sensitivity using 10%, 5%, and negative 5% annual EPS growth with 15x, 12x, and 10x terminal multiples produced mechanical values near $63, $44, and $27. These are scenario ranges, not price promises, and they exclude dividends, dilution, and unexpected credit events. The analyst consensus is Hold with an average 12-month target of $39.00.
$58 to $68
More likely if active loan growth continues in the 8% to 12% range, the margin stays near 2.8% or improves with higher rates, criticized loans stabilize, the doubtful C&I relationship sells without material loss, and the market values WAFD near 15x earnings.
$40 to $48
More likely if earnings grow at a mid-single-digit rate, the margin holds near current levels, deposits remain sticky, credit losses stay manageable, the Build 2030 deposit strategy progresses, and the stock trades near 12x earnings.
$22 to $32
More likely if criticized loans convert to larger losses, the doubtful C&I credit and the construction portfolio stress earnings, deposit competition forces funding costs sharply higher, margin compresses, western-state economies slow, or the market reprices WAFD near 10x reduced earnings.
WAFD AI technical analysis
WAFD AI technical analysis was constructive but consolidating at the August 4, 2026 cutoff. Google Finance reported a 52-week high of $39.49, a 52-week low of $26.31, beta near 0.83, and average volume near 664,000 shares. The August 3 close of $37.36 was about 5.4% below the 52-week high, so the stock is digesting the rally from the $26.31 low rather than in a clean trend-continuation setup.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $37.36 | Google Finance closing quote for August 3, 2026, the latest completed trading session before the August 4 research date. |
| Near support | $36.00 to $36.80 | This zone surrounds the $36.77 prior close and recent consolidation levels and would be the first test on a pullback from the 52-week high area. |
| Secondary support | $34.00 to $35.00 | This zone represents a deeper correction level near the estimated 200-day moving average and would test the primary trend. |
| Near resistance | $39.00 to $39.49 | Google Finance listed a 52-week high near $39.49. A breakout needs price acceptance above $39 and a push through the prior high on above-average volume. |
| 50-day moving average | ~$36.50 estimated | Price was above the intermediate trend measure at the data cutoff, which supports a positive near-term bias. |
| 200-day moving average | ~$34.00 estimated | Price was well above the long-term trend measure, supporting a positive primary trend. |
| Momentum | RSI estimated near 55-65 | Momentum was positive but pulling back from overbought territory after the run to $39.49. The consolidation near $37 is resetting the indicator. |
| Volume | About 585,000 shares on August 3, versus 664,000 average | A breakout above $39.49 is more convincing when weekly volume expands above the 664,000 average. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.83, with moderate bank-cycle volatility | The below-unity beta makes WAFD a lower-volatility holding than the broader market, though earnings, rates, credit headlines, and the C&I pivot transition can still produce sharp moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $36.00, then $34.00 | A sustained break below the $36.00 zone weakens the near-term setup. A break below the estimated 200-day area signals broader trend damage. |
WAFD AI trading strategy
The WAFD AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a western-state regional bank stock. It is not personalized advice. Pair it with live price data, quarterly filings, criticized loan and net charge-off trends, NIM, deposit costs, C&I loan growth, Build 2030 progress, the interest rate path, and a written invalidation rule.
Watch for WAFD to hold the $36.00 to $36.80 support zone and then close above $39.49 on stronger volume, with confirmation from continued active loan growth, a stable-to-improving NIM, steady deposits, and contained criticized loans.
A failed breakout that closes back below $36.00, a sharp rise in criticized loans, a large loss on the doubtful C&I credit, or unexpected pivot costs should invalidate the trend-following setup.
If WAFD pulls back toward the 50-day or 200-day moving average zones without deterioration in deposits, NIM, western-state credit data, or capital ratios, compare the price weakness with the below-book valuation and the long-term earnings and dividend case.
Do not assume one quarter of low charge-offs is permanent. Criticized loans rose to 4.9% of net loans, and regional bank credit losses can surface with a lag, especially with a $54 million doubtful C&I relationship in the book.
Track C&I loan growth, criticized loans, non-accrual loans, net charge-offs, the $54 million doubtful relationship sale outcome, NIM, the efficiency ratio, CET1, and the Build 2030 progress on non-interest-bearing deposits.
Lower confidence if criticized loans keep climbing, the doubtful credit sells at a large discount, C&I growth disappoints, NIM compresses from deposit repricing, deposits leave, or CET1 falls toward 10%.
Investment research summary
WaFd earns net interest income and fees by taking deposits from customers across nine western states and making commercial real estate, construction, multifamily, C&I, and consumer loans. After exiting mortgage lending in January 2025, the bank is executing the Build 2030 plan to grow small business and commercial banking. Customers pay for local branch access, relationship lending, and community banking service.
The moat comes from relationship-based core deposits at 80.6% of total deposits, a 210-branch footprint across nine western states, underwriting discipline, and regulated banking licenses. WaFd has no obvious technology or network-effect advantage. The franchise depends on service quality, funding stability, credit discipline, and successful execution of the C&I and deposit pivot, while the largest 25 banks pull deposits from smaller institutions.
The thesis fails if criticized loans at 4.9% of net loans convert to charge-offs faster than earnings can absorb, the $54 million doubtful C&I relationship sells at a large discount, the construction and CRE book weakens in a western-state downturn, deposit competition forces funding costs sharply higher, the NIM compresses, or the C&I pivot does not generate durable growth. At 0.94x book value and near the 52-week high, the downside cushion is moderate rather than wide.
CEO Brent Beardall has led WaFd since 2016 and oversaw the Luther Burbank acquisition and the January 2025 mortgage lending exit. The team resumed active loan growth, improved the efficiency ratio to 53.7%, repurchased 4.7 million shares at $30.99 in fiscal 2026, and set a 20% non-interest-bearing deposit target under Build 2030. The pivot execution and the pending doubtful credit sale remain the open tests.
Regional banking is a mature, competitive industry, and WaFd operates in a period when the largest 25 U.S. banks capture deposit growth while smaller banks see flat-to-down deposits. WaFd benefits from western-state population and business growth, and the reproposed Basel III endgame framework could reduce its risk-weighted assets by about 12.5%, freeing roughly $300 million of capital. The long-term ceiling is set by deposit funding, credit quality, the rate environment, and Build 2030 execution.
At about 11.8x TTM EPS, 0.94x book value, and 1.11x tangible book value, WAFD is priced reasonably below book value with a 2.89% dividend yield and a consensus Hold rating with an average target of $39.00. The margin of safety is moderate because the stock has already recovered about 42% from the $26.31 low and criticized loans are elevated, so the market is partly pricing a successful pivot with contained credit losses.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $37.36 (close), $37.30 (after hours) | Google Finance WAFD quote | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $2.76 billion | Google Finance and StockAnalysis.com summary data | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 73.95 million | Google Finance shares data | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM EPS | $3.17 | Google Finance and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| P/E ratio | 11.79x (calculated by financial_rigor.py) | Google Finance and financial_rigor.py | August 4, 2026 |
| Q3 fiscal 2026 EPS and revenue | $0.84 diluted EPS on $194.52 million revenue | WaFd Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings release and Google Finance quarterly financials | August 4, 2026 |
| Book value and tangible book value per share | $39.61 book, $33.80 tangible | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet, June 30, 2026 | August 4, 2026 |
| Dividend | $0.27 quarterly, $1.08 annual, 2.89% yield | Google Finance statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Beta | 0.83 | Google Finance statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $26.31 to $39.49 | Google Finance statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2025 revenue and net income | $717.11 million revenue, $211.44 million net income, $2.63 EPS | StockAnalysis.com financial statements (fiscal year Oct-Sep) | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | $760.98 million revenue, $241.85 million net income | StockAnalysis.com financial statements | August 4, 2026 |
| Capital ratios and margin | CET1 11.4%, total risk-based capital 14.4%, NIM 2.81%, efficiency ratio 53.7% | WaFd Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcript | August 4, 2026 |
| Credit quality metrics | Criticized loans 4.9% of net loans, NPAs $136 million or 0.49% of assets, allowance 1.08% of gross loans | WaFd Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcript | August 4, 2026 |
| CEO | Brent J. Beardall, President and CEO since 2016 | WaFd leadership page and Wikipedia | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | 4 analysts, 0 Buy, 4 Hold, 0 Sell, average target $39.00, range $36.00 to $40.00 | S&P Global via StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 11.79x P/E, 11.19x forward P/E, 0.94x P/B, 1.11x P/TBV, 8.49% earnings yield, 8.00% ROE using financial_rigor.py | Google Finance, StockAnalysis.com, and financial_rigor.py | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical data | Estimated 50-day MA ~$36.50, 200-day MA ~$34.00, RSI near 55-65, beta 0.83, average volume 664,000 | Google Finance statistics and price history | August 4, 2026 |
This WAFD AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial planning, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell WaFd. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the August 4, 2026 cutoff and can be wrong if earnings, interest rates, deposit costs, criticized loans or credit losses, the doubtful C&I relationship outcome, capital rules, valuation multiples, western-state economic conditions, Build 2030 pivot outcomes, or market sentiment change.
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