WaFd, Inc. research snapshot
WAFD AI stock analysis currently reads WaFd as a Seattle-based regional bank with 210 branches across nine western states, a conservative deposit franchise, and a meaningful commercial real estate and construction loan portfolio. At the July 13, 2026 data cutoff, WAFD closed at $38.10 with a market capitalization near $2.82 billion. The WAFD AI stock forecast is modestly positive in scenarios where net interest income stabilizes, credit quality holds, the 2025 mortgage exit does not create disruption, and western-state economies support commercial borrowers. The stock trades near its 52-week high after recovering 45% from the $26.31 low, offering a 2.83% dividend yield with a 0.83 beta and a P/E of 12.45x. This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$38.10
Market cap
$2.82 billion
AI score
71 / 100
Rating
Hold-rated regional bank near 52-week high
Trend status
Positive but near the 52-week high of $39.35, above both moving averages with a below-unity beta of 0.83, reflecting the bank stock recovery from the $26.31 low
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 13, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | WaFd operates 210 branches across Washington, Oregon, California, Arizona, Idaho, Nevada, Utah, New Mexico, and Texas. The bank originates commercial real estate, construction, multi-family, and commercial loans, and exited mortgage lending in January 2025 to refocus on small business banking and commercial lending. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat comes from relationship-based core deposits, a 210-branch western-state footprint, and regulated banking licenses. The deposit franchise is useful but there is no technology, network-effect, or brand advantage that would prevent customers from switching to a larger national or regional bank. | Medium |
| Management | Brent Beardall has served as President and CEO since 2016 and has been with the bank since 2002. The management team navigated the Luther Burbank acquisition and made the decisive call to exit mortgage lending. However, the 2025 proxy reported moderate insider ownership and the key-person risk around Beardall is real, though less acute than a founder-led bank. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2024 net income was $200 million, down from $257 million in FY2023, reflecting integration costs and margin pressure. FY2025 net income recovered to $226 million. The Q1 2026 quarterly EPS of $0.83 beat estimates by $0.09 and showed sequential improvement on $193.38 million revenue. | High |
| Valuation | At $38.10, financial_rigor.py calculates 12.45x TTM EPS, 1.02x book value, and a 2.83% dividend yield. This is a reasonable but not distressed valuation for a regional bank near its 52-week high. The stock has already rerated from the $26 lows, so further upside depends on earnings growth rather than multiple expansion. | High |
| Technical trend | WAFD was above both its estimated 50-day and 200-day moving averages at the $38.10 close. The stock has recovered sharply from the $26.31 low and trades near the 52-week high of $39.35. The beta of 0.83 is below market, and RSI was likely above 60 given the strong run, approaching overbought territory. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Main risks are commercial real estate and construction loan losses in a western-state downturn, the mortgage exit transition creating operational disruption, net interest margin compression, deposit competition, and key-person risk. The stock near a 52-week high already prices in a successful pivot, leaving limited room for error. | High |
| AI confidence | High for reported facts and calculations. Medium for the forward view because the mortgage exit, CRE credit cycle, and small-business pivot create an unusually wide range of possible outcomes for a regional bank of this size. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low. WAFD is not an obviously distressed or overvalued bank, but the strategic pivot, CRE exposure, and the stock recovering to near its 52-week high leave a narrow margin of safety. The investment case depends on execution of the small-business banking strategy more than most regional bank peers. | Medium-low |
WAFD AI stock forecast
The WAFD AI stock forecast uses the $38.10 reference price and $3.06 TTM EPS. A three-year financial_rigor.py sensitivity using 10%, 5%, and negative 5% annual EPS growth with 15x, 12x, and 10x terminal multiples produced mechanical values near $61, $43, and $26. These are scenario ranges, not price promises, and they exclude dividends, dilution, and unexpected credit events or mortgage exit transition costs.
$55 to $65
More likely if the small-business banking pivot gains traction, loan growth accelerates, the NIM expands, CRE and construction credit losses stay minimal, deposit costs remain stable, and the market values WAFD near 15x earnings.
$40 to $48
More likely if earnings grow at a mid-single-digit rate, the NIM holds near current levels, deposits remain sticky, CRE losses stay manageable, western-state economies hold steady, and the stock trades at a low-to-mid teen earnings multiple.
$22 to $30
More likely if CRE and construction loan losses rise materially, the mortgage exit creates transition drag, NIM compresses from deposit repricing, western-state economies slow, or the market reprices WAFD near 10x reduced earnings.
WAFD AI technical analysis
WAFD AI technical analysis was constructive at the July 13, 2026 cutoff. Google Finance reported a 52-week high of $39.35, a 52-week low of $26.31, beta near 0.83, and average volume near 608,000 shares. The July 10 close of $38.10 was just 3% below the 52-week high, so the stock is in breakout-testing territory rather than a clear trend-continuation setup.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $38.10 | Google Finance closing quote for July 10, 2026, the latest completed trading session before the July 13 research date. |
| Near support | $35.50 to $37.00 | This zone surrounds recent consolidation levels and would be the first test on a pullback from the 52-week high area. |
| Secondary support | $32.00 to $34.00 | This zone represents a deeper correction level and would test the primary trend for the western-state regional bank. |
| Near resistance | $39.00 to $39.35 | Google Finance listed a 52-week high near $39.35. A breakout needs price acceptance above $39 and a push through the prior high on above-average volume. |
| 50-day moving average | ~$36.00 estimated | Price was above the intermediate trend measure at the data cutoff, which supports a positive near-term bias. |
| 200-day moving average | ~$33.00 estimated | Price was well above the long-term trend measure, supporting a positive primary trend. |
| Momentum | RSI estimated near 60-65 | Momentum was positive but approaching overbought territory given the 45% recovery from the $26.31 low. A pullback to reset momentum would be healthy. |
| Volume | About 608,000 shares, average | A breakout above $39.35 is more convincing when weekly volume expands above the 608,000 average. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.83, with moderate bank-cycle volatility | The below-unity beta makes WAFD a lower-volatility holding than the broader market, though earnings, rates, CRE headlines, and the mortgage exit transition can still produce sharp moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $35.50, then $33.00 | A sustained break below the $35.50 zone weakens the near-term breakout setup. A break below the 200-day zone signals broader trend damage. |
WAFD AI trading strategy
The WAFD AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a western-state regional bank stock. It is not personalized advice. Pair it with live price data, quarterly filings, CRE credit metrics, NIM trends, deposit costs, small-business banking pivot progress, western-state economic data, and a written invalidation rule.
Watch for WAFD to hold the $35.50 to $37.00 support zone and then close above $39.35 on stronger volume, with confirmation from stable regional bank sector data, flat-to-improving NIM, steady deposits, and contained CRE losses.
A failed breakout that closes back below $35.50 or a sharp rise in CRE problem loans or unexpected mortgage exit costs should invalidate the trend-following setup.
If WAFD pulls back toward the 50-day or 200-day moving average zones without deterioration in deposits, NIM, western-state credit data, or capital ratios, compare the price weakness with the long-term earnings and dividend case.
Do not assume one quarter of low charge-offs is permanent. Regional bank CRE credit losses can surface with a lag, especially in a construction-heavy portfolio.
Track the small-business banking loan growth, deposit trends, NIM, non-accrual loans, net charge-offs, CET1 ratio, the efficiency ratio, and qualitative commentary on the mortgage exit transition.
Lower confidence if small-business loan growth disappoints, CRE non-accruals rise quickly, deposits leave or reprice faster, the mortgage exit creates unexpected costs, or CET1 falls below 10%.
Investment research summary
WaFd earns net interest income and fees by taking deposits from customers across nine western states and making commercial real estate, construction, multi-family, and commercial loans. The bank exited mortgage lending in January 2025 to refocus on small business banking. Customers pay for local branch access, relationship lending, and community banking services.
The moat comes from relationship-based core deposits, a 210-branch footprint across nine western states, underwriting discipline, and regulated banking licenses. WaFd has no obvious technology or network-effect advantage. The franchise depends on service quality, funding stability, credit discipline, and successful execution of the small-business banking pivot.
The thesis fails if CRE and construction loan losses rise meaningfully, the mortgage exit creates operational drag or unexpected costs, deposit competition forces funding costs sharply higher, the NIM compresses faster than expected, or the small-business banking pivot does not generate sufficient loan growth. At 1.02x book value and near the 52-week high, the stock has limited downside protection if credit losses spike.
CEO Brent Beardall has led WaFd since 2016 and oversaw the Luther Burbank acquisition and the January 2025 mortgage lending exit. The decisive strategic pivot signals management is willing to restructure the bank, but the small-business banking execution track record is not yet proven. The 2025 proxy reported moderate insider ownership, and the management team has reasonable tenure.
Regional banking is a mature, competitive industry. WaFd benefits from western-state population and business growth, particularly in Texas, Arizona, and the Pacific Northwest. The January 2025 mortgage exit removes a low-ROE business line but adds transition risk. The long-term ceiling is set by deposit funding, CRE credit quality, rate environment, and the success of the small-business banking strategy.
At about 12.45x TTM EPS and 1.02x book value, WAFD is priced as a regional bank near its 52-week high with a modest dividend and a strategic pivot in progress. The margin of safety is narrow because the stock has already recovered 45% from the $26.31 low. At the July 10 price, the market is pricing a successful pivot with limited credit losses, leaving little room for execution missteps.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $38.10 | Google Finance WAFD quote | July 13, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $2.82 billion | Google Finance summary data | July 13, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 73.89 million | Google Finance shares data | July 13, 2026 |
| TTM EPS | $3.06 | Google Finance statistics | July 13, 2026 |
| P/E ratio | 12.45x (calculated by financial_rigor.py) | Google Finance and financial_rigor.py | July 13, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 EPS and revenue | $0.83 EPS on $193.38 million revenue | Google Finance quarterly financials | July 13, 2026 |
| Book value per share | ~$37.30 to $41.14 | Wikipedia and FY2025 SEC filings | July 13, 2026 |
| Dividend | $1.08 annual, 2.83% yield | Google Finance statistics | July 13, 2026 |
| Beta | 0.83 | Google Finance statistics | July 13, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $26.31 to $39.35 | Google Finance statistics | July 13, 2026 |
| FY2024 net income | $200 million | Wikipedia and WaFd 2024 Form 10-K | July 13, 2026 |
| FY2025 total assets and equity | $26.7 billion assets, ~$3.04 billion equity | SEC filings and Yahoo Finance | July 13, 2026 |
| CEO | Brent J. Beardall, President and CEO since 2016 | WaFd leadership page | July 13, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | 1 Buy, 5 Hold, 0 Sell with average target $34.80-$37.25 | Google Finance analyst ratings | July 13, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 12.45x P/E, 1.02x P/B, 7.67% earnings yield, and 8.20% ROE using financial_rigor.py | Google Finance and financial_rigor.py | July 13, 2026 |
| Technical data | Estimated 50-day MA ~$36, 200-day MA ~$33, RSI near 60-65, beta 0.83, average volume 608,000 | Google Finance statistics | July 13, 2026 |
This WAFD AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial planning, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell WaFd. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong if earnings, interest rates, deposit costs, CRE or construction credit losses, capital rules, valuation multiples, western-state economic conditions, small-business banking pivot outcomes, or market sentiment change.
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