Commerce Bancshares, Inc. research snapshot
CBSH AI stock analysis currently reads Commerce Bancshares as a disciplined Midwest regional bank with retail, commercial, wealth, mortgage, payments, and capital-markets businesses. CBSH closed at $59.27 on July 31, 2026, implying a market capitalization of about $8.53 billion using 143.89 million shares. Second-quarter 2026 net income was $159.8 million, or $1.10 per share, beating the $1.04 consensus, as the net yield on earning assets expanded 18 basis points to 3.77% and net loan charge-offs fell to 0.19% of average loans. Credit costs, deposit pricing, net interest income durability, FineMark and Nolan integration, and valuation remain important tests. This CBSH AI stock forecast uses ranges and conditions rather than a certain price prediction. It is for informational use only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$59.27
Market cap
$8.53 billion
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
High-quality Midwest regional bank with improving net interest margin and credit quality, fairly valued near the analyst consensus target
Trend status
Constructive uptrend above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with RSI near 59 after the Q2 2026 report
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Commerce Bancshares combines retail and commercial banking with wealth management, trust, mortgage, payments, and capital-markets services. Q2 2026 net income was $159.8 million, return on average assets was 1.84%, and non-interest income was 37% of total revenue. | High |
| Moat | The moat is a regional relationship system built on Commerce Bank deposits, local commercial expertise, roughly 250 bank and ATM locations, wealth relationships, and nationwide commercial payments capabilities. It is meaningful but not immune to larger banks, credit unions, fintechs, or deposit repricing. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO John Kemper paired organic growth with the FineMark acquisition, completed the securities portfolio repositioning, and repurchased about 2.1 million shares for $110 million during Q2 2026. The new Nolan & Associates agreement adds investment banking capability, but integration execution and capital allocation remain ongoing tests. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Net income to common rose from about $531 million in 2021 to $566 million in 2025, and H1 2026 net income rose to $301.4 million from $284.1 million a year earlier. The net yield on earning assets expanded to 3.77% in Q2 2026, but earnings remain sensitive to funding costs and credit provisions. | High |
| Valuation | At $59.27, CBSH traded near 14.53x TTM EPS, 1.96x book value, and a 1.86% dividend yield, with a forward PE near 13.48x. That is a reasonable price for a strong bank franchise only if normalized returns and fee growth remain durable. | High |
| Technical trend | The latest StockAnalysis snapshot placed CBSH above its 50-day average near $56.20 and 200-day average near $52.79, with RSI near 58.84. Momentum is constructive and less extended than in July, with the 52-week high near $60.92 as the next overhead test. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are deposit beta, net interest margin compression, commercial real estate and consumer credit losses, regulatory capital requirements, FineMark and Nolan integration, payment competition, and a sharp fall in the price-to-book multiple. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | The data confidence is high for reported facts and calculations, but lower for any exact share-price outcome because bank earnings and multiples respond to rates, credit, liquidity, and regulation. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The franchise looks durable and diversified, and the Q2 2026 report was positive, but the margin of safety is not obvious at nearly 2x book value and a price close to the analyst consensus target. | Medium |
CBSH AI stock forecast
The CBSH AI stock forecast uses the July 31 close of $59.27 and the StockAnalysis FY2026 EPS estimate of $4.29. The audited three-year framework produced a bullish area near $84, a base area near $63, and a bearish area near $32 before dividends, using 7%, 4%, and negative 8% annual EPS paths with 16x, 13x, and 9.5x exit multiples.
$75 to $84
More likely if loan growth remains healthy, trust and payments fees keep growing, the net interest margin holds near or above 3.77%, FineMark and Nolan add revenue without prolonged expenses, credit losses stay controlled, and the market supports about a 16x earnings multiple.
$58 to $64
More likely if EPS compounds near 4% annually, net interest income is stable, fee businesses grow at a moderate pace, credit costs normalize, and investors value CBSH near a 13x earnings multiple.
$28 to $34
More likely if deposit competition compresses margins, commercial real estate or card losses rise, acquisition integration disappoints, regulatory capital needs increase, and the valuation falls toward 9.5x earnings.
CBSH AI technical analysis
CBSH AI technical analysis is constructive as of the August 3, 2026 cutoff, using the July 31 close and the latest available StockAnalysis technical snapshot checked August 2. The price was above the 50-day and 200-day averages, while RSI near 58.84 showed positive but balanced momentum. Technical levels can change before the next page update.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $59.27 | StockAnalysis closing price for July 31, 2026, used for the market-cap and valuation calculations. |
| Near support | $56.00 to $56.50 | The 50-day moving average near $56.20 is the first support zone to monitor after the recent advance. |
| Major support | $52.50 to $53.00 | The 200-day moving average near $52.79 is the more important intermediate trend reference. |
| Near resistance | $59.80 to $60.92 | The recent July 29 high and the 52-week high near $60.92 form the first overhead area; a sustained move above it would need volume confirmation. |
| 52-week resistance | $60.92 | The 52-week high is a larger test and should not be treated as a guaranteed target. |
| 50-day moving average | $56.20 | Price remained above this level in the latest technical snapshot, supporting the intermediate trend. |
| 200-day moving average | $52.79 | A break below this level would weaken the longer-term technical structure. |
| Momentum and volume | RSI 58.84; about 1.24 million average shares | Momentum was positive and balanced after the Q2 report. Volume should confirm any breakout above the 52-week high. |
| Volatility | 5-year beta 0.58 | The lower beta does not remove event risk around earnings, rate decisions, credit news, or bank-sector stress. |
| Invalidation | Close below $52.79, then $46.99 | A close below the 200-day average weakens the intermediate setup. A break toward the 52-week low would signal a more serious change in market view. |
CBSH AI trading strategy
The CBSH AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a regional bank with fee-income diversification and interest-rate sensitivity. It is not personal advice. Pair it with live quotes, filings, position sizing, and a written risk limit.
Watch for CBSH to hold above the $56.20 50-day average and clear the $59.80 to $60.92 resistance area with stronger volume and no negative change in credit or deposit commentary.
A close below $56.20 weakens the short-term setup. A close below $52.79 invalidates the intermediate trend framework.
If CBSH pulls back toward the $52.79 200-day average without a new credit event, compare the price with book value, loan growth, net interest income, deposit costs, and the FineMark and Nolan integration updates.
Do not average down solely because the share price is lower. A bank can reprice quickly when credit losses, liquidity, or capital requirements change.
Track average loans and deposits, net interest income, non-interest income, trust fees, net charge-offs, non-accrual loans, allowance coverage, capital ratios, buybacks, dividends, and acquisition expenses each quarter.
Reduce confidence if deposit growth requires sharply higher pricing, the net yield on earning assets falls back below 3.5%, non-accrual loans rise from 0.06%, or fee growth is offset by recurring integration and technology costs.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Commerce Bank for a trusted bundle of deposits, credit, treasury, payments, wealth, mortgage, and capital-markets services. The value is relationship continuity and local execution, not a single proprietary product. In one sentence, this is a high-service regional bank that monetizes both balance-sheet relationships and fee businesses.
The moat comes from core deposits, local commercial relationships, the Commerce brand, roughly 250 bank and ATM locations, wealth-management ties, and commercial payments capabilities. It can widen through FineMark, Nolan, and fee growth, but it narrows if customers move deposits to higher-yield alternatives or technology lowers switching costs.
The thesis fails if deposit pricing keeps rising, the net interest margin compresses back toward 3.5%, commercial real estate or card losses accelerate, securities and liquidity risks damage confidence, or FineMark and Nolan add cost without durable fee growth. A high price-to-book multiple can amplify the downside when return on equity falls.
CEO John Kemper has paired organic growth with FineMark and Nolan, the securities portfolio repositioning, and continued buybacks, including 2.1 million shares for $110 million in Q2 2026. The positive signal is the willingness to repurchase shares while maintaining a conservative posture. The key-person and integration risks remain, and a long record does not guarantee the next acquisition will earn its cost of capital.
Regional banking is a mature industry, but payments, treasury management, private banking, and wealth services can still grow with customer activity. The long-term opportunity is service density and share of wallet. The main structural risks are digital competition, rate volatility, regulation, and credit-cycle losses.
At $59.27, CBSH traded near 14.53x TTM EPS, 1.96x book value, and a 1.86% dividend yield. The base scenario near $63 is close to the quote, so margin of safety requires either a lower entry price or evidence that fee growth, credit quality, and normalized returns can support a higher multiple. Bank cash and debt figures should not be read like industrial-company net cash because deposits and funding are central to the business model.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBSH closing price | $59.27 on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis price history | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization and shares | $8.53 billion calculated as $59.27 x 143.89 million shares; the reported market cap matched within 0.02% | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income and EPS | $566.25 million net income attributable to Commerce Bancshares and $4.04 diluted EPS | Commerce Bancshares 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Five-year net income trend | $531M in 2021, $488M in 2022, $477M in 2023, $526M in 2024, and $566M in 2025 | Macrotrends net income history and Commerce Bancshares 10-K | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 earnings | $159.8 million net income and $1.10 EPS, compared with $152.5 million and $1.09 in Q2 2025 and $141.6 million and $0.96 in Q1 2026; consensus was $1.04 | Commerce Bancshares Q2 2026 earnings release filed with SEC and TheFly | August 3, 2026 |
| H1 2026 earnings | $301.4 million net income and $2.06 EPS, compared with $284.1 million and $2.02 in H1 2025 | Commerce Bancshares Q2 2026 earnings release filed with SEC | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 income mix | $315.1 million net interest income and $183.8 million non-interest income; non-interest income was 37% of total revenue and trust fees grew 28.7% year over year | Commerce Bancshares Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 margin and rates | Net yield on interest earning assets expanded 18 basis points to 3.77%; average rate paid on interest bearing deposits fell to 1.57% | Commerce Bancshares Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 loans and deposits | Average loans were $20.5 billion and average deposits were $27.6 billion; FineMark added about $2.7 billion in loan balances on January 1, 2026 | Commerce Bancshares Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 credit quality | Annualized net charge-offs were 0.19% of average loans, allowance for loan losses was $195.4 million or 0.94% of loans, and non-accrual loans were 0.06% of loans | Commerce Bancshares Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 capital and buybacks | Tier I leverage ratio was 12.81% and tangible common equity to tangible assets was 11.39%; about 2.1 million shares were repurchased for $110 million at an average price of $53.03 | Commerce Bancshares Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and debt at mid-2026 | About $4.12 billion in cash and equivalents and $2.45 billion in total debt per StockAnalysis TTM figures; bank balance-sheet figures require bank-specific interpretation | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM valuation inputs | TTM EPS $4.08, book value per share $30.28, free cash flow per share $7.96, and annual dividend $1.10 | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day average $56.20, 200-day average $52.79, RSI 58.84, average 20-day volume about 1.24 million shares, beta 0.58, and 52-week range $46.99 to $60.92 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 estimate and analyst range | StockAnalysis showed FY2026 EPS of $4.29, revenue of $1.99 billion, an average analyst target of $64.56, and a $57 to $73 target range; consensus rating was Hold | StockAnalysis forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation | financial_rigor.py output: bullish $84.1, base $62.7, bearish $31.7 using $4.29 EPS, 3 years, 7%/4%/-8% growth, and 16x/13x/9.5x exit PE | financial_rigor.py using StockAnalysis FY2026 EPS estimate | August 3, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of returns. Forecasts are scenario ranges based on available data and assumptions that may be wrong. Verify current prices, filings, bank capital, credit metrics, tax effects, liquidity, and your own risk tolerance before making any financial decision.
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