Commerce Bancshares, Inc. research snapshot
CBSH AI stock analysis currently reads Commerce Bancshares as a disciplined Midwest regional bank with retail, commercial, wealth, mortgage, payments, and capital-markets businesses. CBSH closed at $58.35 on July 10, 2026, implying a market capitalization of about $8.50 billion using 145.78 million shares. First-quarter 2026 net income was $141.6 million, non-interest income was $175.9 million, and non-accrual loans were only 0.05% of loans, but credit costs, deposit pricing, net interest income, FineMark integration, and valuation remain important tests. This CBSH AI stock forecast uses ranges and conditions rather than a certain price prediction. It is for informational use only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$58.35
Market cap
$8.50 billion
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
High-quality regional bank franchise, fairly valued with rate and credit-cycle sensitivity
Trend status
Constructive intermediate uptrend above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with RSI near 69
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Commerce Bancshares combines retail and commercial banking with wealth management, trust, mortgage, payments, and capital-markets services. Q1 2026 net income was $141.6 million and non-interest income represented 37% of total revenue. | High |
| Moat | The moat is a regional relationship system built on Commerce Bank deposits, local commercial expertise, roughly 300 branch and ATM locations, wealth relationships, and nationwide commercial payments capabilities. It is meaningful but not immune to larger banks, credit unions, fintechs, or deposit repricing. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO John Kemper is combining organic expansion with the FineMark acquisition while maintaining buybacks, dividends, and capital discipline. Q1 2026 included more than $84 million of common-stock repurchases, but integration execution and capital allocation remain ongoing tests. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Net income to common rose from about $530.8 million in 2021 to $566.3 million in 2025, while Q1 2026 net income increased to $141.6 million from $131.6 million a year earlier. The improvement is real, but earnings remain sensitive to funding costs and credit provisions. | High |
| Valuation | At $58.35, the audited valuation check produced about 14.37x TTM EPS, 1.98x book value, and a 1.89% dividend yield. That is a reasonable price for a strong bank franchise only if normalized returns and fee growth remain durable. | High |
| Technical trend | The latest StockAnalysis snapshot placed CBSH above its 50-day average near $53.27 and 200-day average near $52.53, with RSI near 68.93. Momentum is constructive but close to a level where new buyers may be more exposed to a pullback. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are deposit beta, net interest margin compression, commercial real estate and consumer credit losses, regulatory capital requirements, FineMark integration, payment competition, and a sharp fall in the price-to-book multiple. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | The data confidence is high for reported facts and calculations, but lower for any exact share-price outcome because bank earnings and multiples respond to rates, credit, liquidity, and regulation. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The franchise looks durable and diversified, but the margin of safety is not obvious at nearly 2x book value and a price close to the analyst consensus target. | Medium |
CBSH AI stock forecast
The CBSH AI stock forecast uses the July 10 close of $58.35 and the StockAnalysis FY2026 EPS estimate of $4.17. The audited three-year framework produced a bullish area near $82, a base area near $61, and a bearish area near $31 before dividends, using 7%, 4%, and negative 8% annual EPS paths with 16x, 13x, and 9.5x exit multiples.
$75 to $82
More likely if loan growth remains healthy, trust and payments fees keep growing, deposit costs stabilize, FineMark adds wealth revenue without prolonged expenses, credit losses stay controlled, and the market supports about a 16x earnings multiple.
$58 to $63
More likely if EPS compounds near 4% annually, net interest income is stable, fee businesses grow at a moderate pace, credit costs normalize, and investors value CBSH near a 13x earnings multiple.
$30 to $36
More likely if deposit competition compresses margins, commercial real estate or card losses rise, FineMark integration disappoints, regulatory capital needs increase, and the valuation falls toward 9.5x earnings.
CBSH AI technical analysis
CBSH AI technical analysis is constructive as of the July 12, 2026 cutoff, using the July 10 close and the latest available StockAnalysis technical snapshot checked July 6. The price was above the 50-day and 200-day averages, while RSI near 68.93 showed positive but extended momentum. Technical levels can change before the next page update.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $58.35 | StockAnalysis closing price for July 10, 2026, used for the market-cap and valuation calculations. |
| Near support | $53.00 to $54.00 | The 50-day moving average near $53.27 and the recent June trading area create the first support zone to monitor. |
| Major support | $52.00 to $53.00 | The 200-day moving average near $52.53 is the more important intermediate trend reference. |
| Near resistance | $59.27 to $60.00 | The recent July 7 high near $59.27 is the first overhead level; a sustained move above it would need volume confirmation. |
| 52-week resistance | $63.19 | The reported 52-week high is a larger test and should not be treated as a guaranteed target. |
| 50-day moving average | $53.27 | Price remained above this level in the latest technical snapshot, supporting the intermediate trend. |
| 200-day moving average | $52.53 | A break below this level would weaken the longer-term technical structure. |
| Momentum and volume | RSI 68.93; about 1.44 million average shares | Momentum was positive and near the upper end of a neutral-to-overbought range. Volume should confirm any breakout. |
| Volatility | 5-year beta 0.58 | The lower beta does not remove event risk around earnings, rate decisions, credit news, or bank-sector stress. |
| Invalidation | Close below $52.53, then $46.99 | A close below the 200-day average weakens the intermediate setup. A break toward the 52-week low would signal a more serious change in market view. |
CBSH AI trading strategy
The CBSH AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a regional bank with fee-income diversification and interest-rate sensitivity. It is not personal advice. Pair it with live quotes, filings, position sizing, and a written risk limit.
Watch for CBSH to hold above the $53.27 50-day average and clear the $59.27 to $60.00 resistance area with stronger volume and no negative change in credit or deposit commentary.
A close below $53.27 weakens the short-term setup. A close below $52.53 invalidates the intermediate trend framework.
If CBSH pulls back toward the $52.53 200-day average without a new credit event, compare the price with book value, loan growth, net interest income, deposit costs, and the FineMark integration update.
Do not average down solely because the share price is lower. A bank can reprice quickly when credit losses, liquidity, or capital requirements change.
Track average loans and deposits, net interest income, non-interest income, trust fees, net charge-offs, non-accrual loans, allowance coverage, capital ratios, buybacks, dividends, and acquisition expenses each quarter.
Reduce confidence if deposit growth requires sharply higher pricing, non-accrual loans rise from 0.05%, or fee growth is offset by recurring integration and technology costs.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Commerce Bank for a trusted bundle of deposits, credit, treasury, payments, wealth, mortgage, and capital-markets services. The value is relationship continuity and local execution, not a single proprietary product. In one sentence, this is a high-service regional bank that monetizes both balance-sheet relationships and fee businesses.
The moat comes from core deposits, local commercial relationships, the Commerce brand, roughly 300 branch and ATM locations, wealth-management ties, and commercial payments capabilities. It can widen through FineMark and fee growth, but it narrows if customers move deposits to higher-yield alternatives or technology lowers switching costs.
The thesis fails if deposit pricing keeps rising, net interest income compresses, commercial real estate or card losses accelerate, securities and liquidity risks damage confidence, or FineMark adds cost without durable fee growth. A high price-to-book multiple can amplify the downside when return on equity falls.
CEO John Kemper has paired organic growth with FineMark, capital returns, and continued investment in fee businesses. The positive signal is the willingness to repurchase shares while maintaining a conservative posture. The key-person and integration risks remain, and a long record does not guarantee the next acquisition will earn its cost of capital.
Regional banking is a mature industry, but payments, treasury management, private banking, and wealth services can still grow with customer activity. The long-term opportunity is service density and share of wallet. The main structural risks are digital competition, rate volatility, regulation, and credit-cycle losses.
At $58.35, CBSH traded near 14.37x TTM EPS, 1.98x book value, and a 1.89% dividend yield. The base scenario near $61 is close to the quote, so margin of safety requires either a lower entry price or evidence that fee growth, credit quality, and normalized returns can support a higher multiple. Bank cash and debt figures should not be read like industrial-company net cash because deposits and funding are central to the business model.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBSH closing price | $58.35 on July 10, 2026 | StockAnalysis price history | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization and shares | $8.50 billion calculated as $58.35 x 145.78 million shares; the $8.46 billion reported market cap differed by 0.55% | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income and EPS | $566.3 million net income attributable to Commerce Bancshares and $4.04 diluted EPS | Commerce Bancshares 2025 Form 10-K and Macrotrends | July 12, 2026 |
| Five-year net income trend | $530.8M in 2021, $488.4M in 2022, $477.1M in 2023, $526.3M in 2024, and $566.3M in 2025 | Macrotrends net income history and Commerce Bancshares 10-K | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 earnings | $141.6 million net income and $0.96 EPS, compared with $131.6 million and $0.93 in Q1 2025 | Commerce Bancshares Q1 2026 earnings release filed with SEC | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 income mix | $299.8 million net interest income and $175.9 million non-interest income; non-interest income was 37% of total revenue | Commerce Bancshares Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 loans and deposits | Average loans were $20.3 billion and average deposits were $27.7 billion; both figures increased from Q4 2025 | Commerce Bancshares Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 credit quality | Annualized net charge-offs were 0.30% of average loans, allowance for loan losses was $198.6 million or 0.97% of loans, and non-accrual loans were 0.05% of loans | Commerce Bancshares Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and debt at FY2025 | $3.548 billion cash and equivalents and $2.60 billion total debt; bank balance-sheet figures require bank-specific interpretation | Commerce Bancshares 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM valuation inputs | TTM EPS $4.06, book value per share $29.42, free cash flow per share $7.85, and annual dividend $1.10 | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day average $53.27, 200-day average $52.53, RSI 68.93, average 20-day volume 1.44 million shares, beta 0.58, and 52-week range $46.99 to $63.19 | StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2026 estimate and analyst range | StockAnalysis showed FY2026 EPS of $4.17, revenue of $1.97 billion, an average analyst target of $59.25, and a $53 to $69 target range; consensus rating was Hold | StockAnalysis forecast | July 12, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation | financial_rigor.py output: bullish $81.7, base $61.0, bearish $30.8 using $4.17 EPS, 3 years, 7%/4%/-8% growth, and 16x/13x/9.5x exit PE | financial_rigor.py using StockAnalysis FY2026 EPS estimate | July 12, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of returns. Forecasts are scenario ranges based on available data and assumptions that may be wrong. Verify current prices, filings, bank capital, credit metrics, tax effects, liquidity, and your own risk tolerance before making any financial decision.
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