Bullish case
$105 to $120
More likely if loan growth accelerates, the NIM expands, Texas economic activity supports loan demand and credit quality, credit losses stay minimal, deposit costs remain stable, and the market values PB near 15x earnings.
Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. research snapshot
PB AI Stock Analysis
PB AI stock analysis currently reads Prosperity Bancshares as a well-capitalized Texas-based regional bank with a conservative lending culture, a large deposit franchise across 285 branches, and meaningful commercial real estate exposure. At the July 10, 2026 data cutoff, PB closed at $71.99 with a market capitalization near $8.63 billion. The PB AI stock forecast is positive only in scenarios where net interest income stays stable, loan quality holds, expenses remain controlled, and the Texas economy supports both consumer and commercial borrowers. The stock is above its key moving averages but trades below its 52-week high, offering a 3.33% dividend yield with a 0.64 beta. This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$71.99
Market cap
$8.63 billion
AI score
73 / 100
Rating
Stable Texas bank, low-beta income and value
Trend status
Positive but below the 52-week high of $77.20, above the 50-day moving average, with a below-unity beta of 0.64
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 10, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. Prosperity has decades of SEC filings, quarterly earnings releases, proxy statements, regulatory capital disclosures, FDIC call report data, and active analyst coverage from 11 analysts.
- bias Check
- The main AI research risk is extrapolating the Lone Star State Bancshares merger benefits and low-beta stability. The countercheck is PB's 58%+ commercial real estate mix, credit sensitivity to oil and energy lending, rate exposure, margin compression risk, and the CEO's founder status creating key-person risk.
- ai Confidence
- High for reported financials, balance sheet data, capital ratios, management history, price, valuation math, and quarterly trends. Medium for forward returns because rates, CRE losses, deposit competition, and bank equity valuations can shift quickly.
- investment Certainty
- Medium. The balance sheet and franchise quality are visible, but the investment case depends on credit outcomes across a full cycle, rate trajectory, deposit pricing, and continued execution from a founder-led management team with a moderate ownership stake.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Prosperity combines a Texas-Oklahoma deposit franchise, commercial and consumer lending, wealth management, mortgage banking, and treasury services across 285 branches. The bank has a long operating history since 1983. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from relationship deposits, local lending relationships, branch coverage across Texas and Oklahoma, a founder-led culture, and regulated banking licenses. It is a useful deposit moat, but weaker than a software or network-effect moat. | Medium |
| Management | David Zalman founded Prosperity in 1983 and has served as Chairman and CEO for over 40 years. His long tenure is a rare stability signal, though it also creates key-person reliance and succession risk. The 2025 proxy reported about 1.5% beneficial ownership. | High |
| Financial trend | FY2023 net income was $526.9 million. Q1 2026 EPS was $1.50 on $367.62 million revenue, up from $1.42 a year earlier. Revenue has grown through the Lone Star State Bancshares merger and organic loan growth. | High |
| Valuation | At $71.99, financial_rigor.py calculates about 13.04x TTM EPS, 1.22x book value, 14.78x free cash flow, a 7.67% earnings yield, and a 3.33% dividend yield. That is a reasonable valuation for a stable Texas bank, not a distressed or expensive price. | High |
| Technical trend | PB was above its 50-day moving average near $70 and its 200-day moving average near $66 based on the $71.99 close. The beta of 0.64 is well below market, and RSI was estimated near 58, positive but not overbought, while the stock remains below the $77.20 52-week high. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Main risks are commercial real estate losses, oil-price sensitivity through Texas energy lending, deposit repricing, net interest margin compression, regulatory changes, rate sensitivity, and founder succession. | High |
| AI confidence | High for reported facts and calculations. Medium for the forecast because bank earnings depend on interest rates, credit quality, deposit competition, and Texas economic conditions. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The franchise and deposits are strong, but CRE concentration, energy-lending exposure, and the possibility of margin compression mean ordinary-looking credit data can deteriorate in a downturn. | Medium |
PB AI stock forecast
PB AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The PB AI stock forecast uses the $71.99 reference price and $5.52 TTM EPS. A three-year financial_rigor.py sensitivity using 12%, 6%, and negative 5% annual EPS growth with 15x, 13x, and 10x terminal multiples produced mechanical values near $116, $86, and $47. These are scenario ranges, not price promises, and they exclude dividends, dilution, and unexpected credit events.
Base case
$80 to $90
More likely if earnings grow at a mid-single-digit rate, the NIM stays near current levels, deposits remain sticky, CRE losses stay manageable, the Texas economy holds steady, and the stock holds a low-to-mid teen earnings multiple.
Bearish case
$40 to $50
More likely if CRE losses rise meaningfully, energy lending deteriorates, deposit costs reprice higher, provisions absorb operating income, rates fall too quickly and compress NIM, or the market reprices PB near 10x reduced earnings.
PB AI technical analysis
PB AI Technical Analysis
PB AI technical analysis was constructive at the July 10, 2026 cutoff. Google Finance reported a 52-week high of $77.20, a 52-week low of $61.06, beta near 0.64, and average volume near 1.38 million shares. The July 10 close of $71.99 was below the 52-week high, so trend-continuation setups matter more than a precise breakout.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $71.99 | Google Finance closing quote for July 10, 2026, the latest completed trading session before the July 12 research date. |
| Near support | $68.50 to $70.50 | This zone surrounds the estimated 50-day moving average near $70 and the recent consolidation area from late June to early July. |
| Secondary support | $64.50 to $66.50 | This zone surrounds the estimated 200-day moving average near $66 and would be the primary trend test for a deeper pullback. |
| Near resistance | $75.00 to $77.20 | Google Finance listed a 52-week high near $77.20. A breakout needs price acceptance above $75 and a push through the prior high on above-average volume. |
| 50-day moving average | ~$70.00 estimated | Price was above the intermediate trend measure at the data cutoff, which supports a positive near-term bias. |
| 200-day moving average | ~$66.00 estimated | Price was above the long-term trend measure, which supports a positive primary trend for the steady Texas bank. |
| Momentum | RSI estimated near 58 | Momentum was positive without an overbought reading. The stock is below its 52-week high, so momentum could accelerate on a breakout. |
| Volume | About 1.38 million shares, average | A breakout above $77.20 is more convincing when weekly volume expands above the 1.38 million average. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.64, with low bank-cycle volatility | The below-unity beta makes PB a lower-volatility holding, though earnings, rates, Texas energy loans, and CRE headlines can still produce sharp moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $68.50, then $64.50 | A sustained break below the 50-day zone weakens the near-term setup. A break below the 200-day zone signals broader trend damage. |
PB AI trading strategy
PB AI Trading Strategy Framework
The PB AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a Texas regional bank stock. It is not personalized advice. Pair it with live price data, deposit trends, net interest margin, Texas economic data, CRE disclosures, energy loan data, credit metrics, capital ratios, and a written invalidation rule.
Trend-following setup
Watch for PB to hold the $68.50 to $70.50 support zone and then close above $77.20 on stronger volume, with confirmation from stable Texas bank-sector data, flat-to-improving NIM, steady deposits, and contained CRE losses.
A failed breakout that closes back below the 50-day zone or a sharp rise in Texas CRE problem loans should invalidate the trend-following setup.
Mean-reversion setup
If PB pulls back toward the 50-day or 200-day moving average zones without deterioration in deposits, NIM, Texas credit data, energy loans, CRE non-accruals, or capital ratios, compare the price weakness with the long-term earnings and dividend case.
Do not assume one quarter of low charge-offs is permanent. Bank CRE and energy credit losses can surface with a lag, especially in a Texas-focused portfolio.
Dividend and income monitor
Track the $0.60 quarterly dividend ($2.40 annual), payout ratio, dividend history, CET1 ratio, deposit growth and mix, loan portfolio mix by CRE and energy, non-accrual loans, net charge-offs, and the efficiency ratio.
Lower confidence if the payout ratio exceeds 50% of EPS on a sustained basis, CRE or energy non-accruals rise quickly, deposits leave or reprice faster, or CET1 falls below 10%.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Prosperity earns net interest income and fees by taking deposits from Texas and Oklahoma customers and making commercial, CRE, energy, and consumer loans. The customer pays for access to local credit, a large branch network, relationship banking, and long-standing community presence.
Moat
The moat comes from relationship-based core deposits, a 285-branch footprint across Texas and Oklahoma, underwriting discipline from a founder-led culture, and regulated banking licenses. Prosperity has no obvious technology or network-effect advantage, so the franchise depends on service quality, funding stability, credit discipline, and local economic growth.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis fails if Texas energy or CRE losses rise materially, deposit competition forces funding costs sharply higher, the net interest margin compresses faster than expected, the Lone Star State integration encounters problems, or founder David Zalman leaves without a clear succession plan. The 1.22x price-to-book ratio leaves limited downside protection if credit losses spike.
Management
David Zalman founded Prosperity in 1983 and has been Chairman and CEO throughout its 40-year history. The long tenure is a rare and valuable asset for institutional knowledge and lending culture. The question is whether the bank has developed a management bench that can sustain its conservative approach when Zalman eventually retires. His 2025 proxy reported about 1.5% beneficial ownership.
Industry trend
Banking is not a high-growth industry, but demand for deposits, commercial credit, and local banking services is persistent. Prosperity benefits from Texas population and business growth, which has consistently outpaced national averages. Its long-term ceiling is set by funding, credit quality, Texas economic conditions, and competition from larger national and regional banks.
Valuation and margin of safety
At about 13.04x TTM EPS and 1.22x book value, PB is priced as a stable Texas bank with a below-market beta and a reliable dividend. The margin of safety improves if the stock returns toward the moving average zones while deposits, CRE credit, energy loans, and capital remain healthy. At the July 10 price, the market is pricing a continuation of steady performance without a credit event.
Source-backed data
PB Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $71.99 | Google Finance PB quote | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $8.63 billion | Google Finance summary data | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 119.86 million | Google Finance shares data | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM EPS | $5.52 | Google Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| P/E ratio | 13.04x (calculated by financial_rigor.py) | Google Finance and financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 EPS and revenue | $1.50 EPS on $367.62 million revenue | Google Finance quarterly financials | July 12, 2026 |
| Book value per share | ~$59.09 | Google Finance and Wikipedia equity data | July 12, 2026 |
| Dividend | $2.40 annual, 3.33% yield | Google Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Beta | 0.64 | Google Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $61.06 to $77.20 | Google Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2023 net income | $526.9 million | Wikipedia and Prosperity 2023 Form 10-K | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2023 total assets and equity | $37.8 billion assets, $7.08 billion equity | Wikipedia and Prosperity 2023 Form 10-K | July 12, 2026 |
| CEO and founder | David Zalman, Chairman and CEO since 1983 | Prosperity leadership page | July 12, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | 4 Buy, 6 Hold, 1 Sell with average target $77.70 | Google Finance analyst ratings | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 13.04x P/E, 1.22x P/B, 14.78x P/FCF, 7.67% earnings yield, 6.76% FCF yield, and 9.34% ROE using financial_rigor.py | Google Finance and financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical data | Estimated 50-day MA ~$70, 200-day MA ~$66, RSI near 58, beta 0.64, average volume 1.38 million | Google Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
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This PB AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial planning, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell Prosperity Bancshares. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong if earnings, rates, deposit costs, CRE or energy credit losses, capital rules, valuation multiples, Texas economic conditions, or market sentiment change.
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