Valley National Bancorp research snapshot
VLY AI stock analysis currently reads Valley National Bancorp as a regional bank with improving earnings, lower funding costs, growing deposits, and meaningful commercial real estate exposure. At the July 10, 2026 data cutoff, VLY closed at $14.64 with a market capitalization near $8.11 billion. The VLY AI stock forecast is constructive only in scenarios where net interest income growth, deposit discipline, loan quality, and capital remain intact. The shares are above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, but a bank stock near a 52-week high still needs a margin of safety. This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$14.64
Market cap
$8.11 billion
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
Improving regional bank, valuation-sensitive
Trend status
Positive but near the 52-week high, with price above both tracked moving averages
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 10, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Valley combines consumer banking, commercial banking, wealth management, insurance, private banking, mortgage, auto lending, and treasury operations across a multi-state footprint. | High |
| Moat | The moat is based on relationship deposits, local lending knowledge, branch and commercial banking coverage, regulated licenses, and scale. It is useful, but weaker than a network-effect or software moat. | Medium |
| Management | Ira Robbins joined Valley in 1996 and has been CEO since 2018. His long tenure supports institutional knowledge, while the test is whether growth and risk controls hold through the next credit cycle. | High |
| Financial trend | FY2025 net income rose to $598.0 million from $380.3 million, while Q1 2026 net income was $163.9 million and net interest income rose 12.2% year over year. | High |
| Valuation | At $14.64, financial_rigor.py calculates about 13.19x TTM EPS, 1.09x book value, 14.79x free cash flow, and a 3.01% dividend yield. That is reasonable for a recovering bank, not a distressed price. | High |
| Technical trend | VLY was above the StockAnalysis 50-day moving average near $13.90 and 200-day average near $12.39. RSI near 56.89 was positive but not overbought, while the price remained close to the $15.01 52-week high. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | The main risks are commercial real estate losses, deposit repricing, rate sensitivity, uninsured funding, non-core deposit runoff, capital requirements, and a lower price-to-book multiple. | High |
| AI confidence | High for reported facts and calculations. Medium for the forecast because bank earnings depend on several linked variables that are difficult to model precisely. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low to medium certainty. The earnings recovery is visible, but a 58.4% commercial real estate loan mix means ordinary-looking credit data can change during a downturn. | Medium |
VLY AI stock forecast
The VLY AI stock forecast uses the $14.64 reference price and $1.11 TTM EPS. A three-year financial_rigor.py sensitivity using 15%, 8%, and negative 10% annual EPS growth with 15x, 13x, and 9x terminal multiples produced mechanical values near $25.30, $18.20, and $7.30. These are scenario ranges, not price promises, and they exclude dividends, dilution, and unexpected credit events.
$23 to $27
More likely if net interest income grows near management guidance, deposits grow without a sharp funding-cost increase, commercial loan growth stays healthy, credit losses remain contained, and the market values VLY near 15x earnings.
$17 to $19
More likely if earnings grow at a high single-digit rate, the NIM stays near recent levels, deposits remain stable, commercial real estate losses stay manageable, and the stock holds a mid-teens earnings multiple.
$7 to $9
More likely if office, multifamily, or other commercial real estate losses rise, deposit costs reaccelerate, provisions absorb operating income, capital returns slow, and the market reprices VLY near 9x reduced earnings.
VLY AI technical analysis
VLY AI technical analysis was constructive at the July 10, 2026 cutoff. StockAnalysis reported a 50-day moving average near $13.90, a 200-day moving average near $12.39, RSI near 56.89, beta near 1.05, and 20-day average volume near 6.81 million shares. The July 10 close of $14.64 was below the $15.01 52-week high, so support and breakout levels matter more than a precise target.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $14.64 | StockAnalysis closing quote for July 10, 2026, the latest completed trading session before the July 12 research date. |
| Near support | $13.70 to $13.95 | This zone surrounds the 50-day moving average near $13.90 and the recent June to July consolidation area. |
| Secondary support | $12.20 to $12.60 | This zone surrounds the 200-day moving average near $12.39 and would be the broader trend test. |
| Near resistance | $14.95 to $15.01 | StockAnalysis listed a 52-week high near $15.01. A breakout needs price acceptance above that area rather than a brief intraday move. |
| 50-day moving average | $13.90 StockAnalysis snapshot | Price was above the intermediate trend measure at the data cutoff. |
| 200-day moving average | $12.39 StockAnalysis snapshot | Price was above the long-term trend measure, which supports a positive primary trend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 56.89 | Momentum was positive without an overbought reading, although the stock was close to its 52-week high. |
| Volume | About 6.81 million shares, 20-day average | A breakout above $15.01 is more useful when volume expands above the recent average. |
| Volatility | Beta near 1.05, with bank-cycle event risk | The market beta is close to one, but earnings, rates, deposits, CRE headlines, and capital news can still produce sharp moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $13.70, then $12.39 | A sustained break below the 50-day zone weakens the near-term setup. A break below the 200-day zone signals broader trend damage. |
VLY AI trading strategy
The VLY AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a regional bank. It is not personalized advice. Pair it with live price data, deposit trends, net interest margin, commercial real estate disclosures, credit metrics, capital ratios, and a written invalidation rule.
Watch for VLY to hold the $13.70 to $13.95 support zone and then close above $15.01 on stronger volume, with confirmation from stable bank-sector breadth, deposits, NIM, and credit data.
A failed breakout that closes back below the 50-day zone should invalidate the near-term trend setup.
If VLY pulls back toward the 50-day or 200-day zones without deterioration in deposits, NIM, non-accrual loans, CRE provisions, or capital, compare the price drop with the long-term earnings case.
Do not treat one quarter of lower charge-offs as a permanent credit floor. Bank losses can appear with a delay.
Track deposit growth and beta, loan mix, office and multifamily exposure, non-accrual loans, net charge-offs, allowance coverage, CET1, NIM, efficiency, common dividends, and share count.
Lower confidence if deposits leave or reprice quickly, provisions rise faster than revenue, CRE losses spread, CET1 falls, or EPS slows while the valuation stays elevated.
Investment research summary
Valley earns spread income and fees by taking deposits, making commercial and consumer loans, managing wealth and insurance relationships, processing payments, and providing treasury services. The customer pays for access to credit, liquidity, convenience, and a long-term banking relationship.
The moat comes from local relationships, core deposits, branch coverage, regulated licenses, underwriting history, and a multi-state commercial network. Valley has no obvious technology or network-effect moat, so the franchise depends on service, funding, risk control, and scale.
The thesis fails if commercial real estate losses rise, deposit competition pushes funding costs higher, rates hurt asset yields, non-core deposits leave, or capital rules limit distributions. The 58.4% CRE loan mix and 329% CRE concentration ratio leave less room for underwriting mistakes than the low headline P/E suggests.
Ira Robbins joined Valley in 1996 and became CEO in 2018 after serving in several operating and finance roles. The long internal career is a strength for local knowledge. The harder question is whether growth, technology spending, and balance sheet expansion will be matched by disciplined credit decisions. His reported beneficial ownership was about 555,000 shares in the 2026 proxy, or roughly 0.10% of the common stock.
Banking is not a new technology revolution, but demand for deposits, commercial credit, payments, and wealth services persists as the economy grows. Valley benefits from business activity in New Jersey, New York, Florida, California, Alabama, and Illinois. Its long-term ceiling is set by funding, capital, credit quality, and regional competition.
At about 13.19x TTM EPS and 1.09x book value, VLY is priced as a recovering bank with continued earnings progress. The margin of safety improves if the shares return toward the moving averages while deposits, capital, and credit quality remain stable. At the July 10 price, the market still expects a meaningful part of the recovery to continue.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $14.64 | StockAnalysis VLY price history | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $8.11 billion | StockAnalysis statistics and market cap math | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 554.13 million | VLY 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue before loan losses | $2.026 billion | VLY 2025 earnings release and StockAnalysis financials | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $597.98 million | VLY 2025 earnings release and StockAnalysis financials | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net income and diluted EPS | $163.9 million net income and $0.28 diluted EPS | VLY Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 balance sheet | $64.5 billion assets, $50.2 billion net loans, $52.9 billion deposits, and $7.8 billion shareholders' equity | VLY Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating trend | 3.17% FTE NIM, $472.8 million FTE net interest income, 53.10% adjusted efficiency ratio, and 11.92% adjusted ROATCE | VLY Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Credit quality | $17.5 million Q1 net charge-offs, 0.85% non-accrual loans, 0.86% NPAs, and 1.18% allowance for credit losses to loans | VLY Q1 2026 earnings release and Form 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| Liquidity and borrowings | $9.02 billion cash, interest-bearing bank deposits, and investment securities, $2.56 billion long-term borrowings, and $63.9 million short-term borrowings at March 31, 2026. StockAnalysis reported $9.37 billion for FY2025, a 1.88% cross-period difference. | VLY Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis balance sheet | July 12, 2026 |
| Loan mix and CRE concentration | Commercial real estate and construction were 58.4% of loans, while the CRE concentration ratio was about 329% of risk-based capital | VLY Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| Capital and funding | 10.91% consolidated CET1, $52.9 billion deposits, 28% estimated uninsured deposits, and 52% cumulative deposit beta in the current rate-decrease cycle | VLY Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 13.19x P/E, 1.09x P/B, 14.79x P/FCF, 6.76% FCF yield, and 3.01% dividend yield using financial_rigor.py | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical data | 50-day moving average $13.90, 200-day moving average $12.39, RSI 56.89, beta 1.05, and 20-day average volume 6.81 million | StockAnalysis VLY statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Management and ownership | Ira Robbins has led Valley since 2018 after joining in 1996; the 2026 proxy reported about 554,680 beneficial shares | Valley leadership page and 2026 proxy statement | July 12, 2026 |
This VLY AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial planning, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell Valley National Bancorp. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong if earnings, rates, deposit costs, commercial real estate losses, capital rules, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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