Valley National Bancorp research snapshot
VLY AI stock analysis currently reads Valley National Bancorp as a regional bank with improving net interest income, a stronger margin, faster loan growth, and a declining CRE concentration ratio, offset by higher non-accrual loans and a stock that has already rallied more than 50% in a year. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, VLY closed at $14.29 with a market capitalization near $7.90 billion. The VLY AI stock forecast is constructive only in scenarios where net interest income growth, deposit discipline, loan quality, and capital remain intact. The shares sit on the 50-day moving average and above the 200-day moving average, but a bank stock near a 52-week high after a large move needs a margin of safety. This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$14.29
Market cap
$7.90 billion
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
Improving regional bank, valuation now re-rated
Trend status
Consolidating below the 52-week high after a large rally, price sitting on the 50-day average and above the 200-day average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Valley combines consumer banking, commercial banking, wealth management, insurance, private banking, mortgage, auto lending, and treasury operations across a multi-state footprint. | High |
| Moat | The moat is based on relationship deposits, local lending knowledge, branch and commercial banking coverage, regulated licenses, and scale. It is useful, but weaker than a network-effect or software moat. | Medium |
| Management | Ira Robbins joined Valley in 1996 and has been CEO since 2018 and Chairman of the Board. His long tenure supports institutional knowledge, while the test is whether growth and risk controls hold through the next credit cycle. | High |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 net income rose to $170.9 million from $133.2 million a year earlier, FTE NIM expanded to 3.20%, and the efficiency ratio improved to 52.11%. TTM net income was about $664 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $14.29, financial_rigor.py calculates about 12.11x TTM EPS, 1.05x book value, 14.26x free cash flow, and a 3.08% dividend yield. That is a fair price for a recovering bank, not a distressed or cheap price. | High |
| Technical trend | VLY sat on the StockAnalysis 50-day moving average near $14.29 and above the 200-day average near $12.69. RSI near 45.32 was neutral after the rally, while the price stayed below the $15.20 52-week high. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | The main risks are commercial real estate losses, deposit repricing, rate sensitivity, uninsured funding, non-core deposit runoff, capital requirements, and a lower price-to-book multiple. | High |
| AI confidence | High for reported facts and calculations. Medium for the forecast because bank earnings depend on several linked variables that are difficult to model precisely. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low to medium certainty. The earnings recovery is visible, but a roughly 317% CRE concentration ratio means ordinary-looking credit data can change during a downturn. | Medium |
VLY AI stock forecast
The VLY AI stock forecast uses the $14.29 reference price and $1.18 TTM EPS. A three-year financial_rigor.py sensitivity using 15%, 8%, and negative 10% annual EPS growth with 15x, 13x, and 9x terminal multiples produced mechanical values near $26.90, $19.30, and $7.70. These are scenario ranges, not price promises, and they exclude dividends, dilution, and unexpected credit events.
$24 to $28
More likely if net interest income keeps growing near guidance, deposits grow without a sharp funding-cost increase, C&I and owner-occupied CRE growth stays healthy, credit losses remain contained, and the market values VLY near 15x earnings.
$17 to $21
More likely if earnings grow at a high single-digit rate, the NIM keeps drifting toward the low-to-mid 330s, deposits remain stable, commercial real estate losses stay manageable, and the stock holds a low-to-mid-teens earnings multiple.
$7 to $9
More likely if office, multifamily, or other commercial real estate losses rise, deposit competition reaccelerates, provisions absorb operating income, capital returns slow, and the market reprices VLY near 9x reduced earnings.
VLY AI technical analysis
VLY AI technical analysis was neutral to constructive at the August 3, 2026 cutoff. StockAnalysis reported a 50-day moving average near $14.29, a 200-day moving average near $12.69, RSI near 45.32, beta near 1.06, and 20-day average volume near 6.95 million shares. The July 31 close of $14.29 was below the $15.20 52-week high, so support and breakout levels matter more than a precise target.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $14.29 | StockAnalysis closing quote for July 31, 2026, the latest completed trading session before the August 3 research date. |
| Near support | $13.90 to $14.20 | This zone sits just under the 50-day moving average near $14.29 and reflects the recent day-to-day low cluster. |
| Secondary support | $12.40 to $12.70 | This zone surrounds the 200-day moving average near $12.69 and the Q2 2026 low near $12.42, and would be the broader trend test. |
| Near resistance | $14.80 to $15.20 | StockAnalysis listed a 52-week high near $15.20, with the Q2 2026 closing high near $14.78. A breakout needs price acceptance above that area rather than a brief intraday move. |
| 50-day moving average | $14.29 StockAnalysis snapshot | Price was sitting right on the intermediate trend measure at the data cutoff. |
| 200-day moving average | $12.69 StockAnalysis snapshot | Price remained above the long-term trend measure, which supports a positive primary trend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 45.32 | Momentum was neutral after the 52-week rally, leaving room in both directions rather than an overbought signal. |
| Volume | About 6.95 million shares, 20-day average | A breakout above $15.20 is more useful when volume expands above the recent average. |
| Volatility | Beta near 1.06, with bank-cycle event risk | The market beta is close to one, but earnings, rates, deposits, CRE headlines, and capital news can still produce sharp moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $13.60, then $12.69 | A sustained break below the 50-day zone weakens the near-term setup. A break below the 200-day zone signals broader trend damage. |
VLY AI trading strategy
The VLY AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a regional bank. It is not personalized advice. Pair it with live price data, deposit trends, net interest margin, commercial real estate disclosures, credit metrics, capital ratios, and a written invalidation rule.
Watch for VLY to hold the $13.90 to $14.20 support zone and then close above $15.20 on stronger volume, with confirmation from stable bank-sector breadth, deposits, NIM, and credit data.
A failed breakout that closes back below the 50-day zone should invalidate the near-term trend setup.
If VLY pulls back toward the 200-day zone near $12.40 to $12.70 without deterioration in deposits, NIM, non-accrual loans, CRE provisions, or capital, compare the price drop with the long-term earnings case.
Do not treat one quarter of lower charge-offs as a permanent credit floor. Bank losses can appear with a delay.
Track deposit growth and beta, loan mix, office and multifamily exposure, non-accrual loans, net charge-offs, allowance coverage, criticized and classified assets, CET1, NIM, efficiency, common dividends, and share count.
Lower confidence if deposits leave or reprice quickly, provisions rise faster than revenue, CRE losses spread, CET1 falls, or EPS slows while the valuation stays elevated.
Investment research summary
Valley earns spread income and fees by taking deposits, making commercial and consumer loans, managing wealth and insurance relationships, processing payments, and providing treasury services. The customer pays for access to credit, liquidity, convenience, and a long-term banking relationship.
The moat comes from local relationships, core deposits, branch coverage, regulated licenses, underwriting history, and a multi-state commercial network. Valley has no obvious technology or network-effect moat, so the franchise depends on service, funding, risk control, and scale.
The thesis fails if commercial real estate losses rise, deposit competition pushes funding costs higher, rates hurt asset yields, non-core deposits leave, or capital rules limit distributions. The roughly 317% CRE concentration ratio, a higher non-accrual balance, and a stock already up more than 50% in a year leave less room for underwriting mistakes than the low headline P/E suggests.
Ira Robbins joined Valley in 1996 and became CEO in 2018 and Chairman of the Board. The long internal career is a strength for local knowledge. The harder question is whether growth, technology spending, and balance sheet expansion will be matched by disciplined credit decisions. His reported beneficial ownership was about 554,680 shares in the 2026 proxy, or roughly 0.10% of the common stock.
Banking is not a new technology revolution, but demand for deposits, commercial credit, payments, and wealth services persists as the economy grows. Valley benefits from business activity in New Jersey, New York, Florida, California, Alabama, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Arizona. Its long-term ceiling is set by funding, capital, credit quality, and regional competition.
At about 12.11x TTM EPS and 1.05x book value, VLY is priced as a recovering bank with continued earnings progress and a large part of the recovery already reflected in the share price. The margin of safety improves if the shares return toward the moving averages while deposits, capital, and credit quality remain stable. At the July 31 price, the market still expects a meaningful part of the improvement to continue.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $14.29 | StockAnalysis VLY price history | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $7.90 billion | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py market cap check | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 553.07 million | StockAnalysis statistics and Q2 2026 8-K | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM financials | $2.06 billion revenue, $663.95 million net income available to common, and $1.18 diluted EPS | StockAnalysis financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net income and diluted EPS | $170.9 million net income and $0.29 diluted EPS, with $172.8 million adjusted net income and $0.30 adjusted EPS | VLY Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 balance sheet | $66.32 billion assets, $52.47 billion net loans, $54.12 billion deposits, and $7.92 billion shareholders equity | VLY Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 operating trend | 3.20% FTE NIM, $488.4 million FTE net interest income, 52.11% efficiency ratio, and 11.91% ROTCE | VLY Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Credit quality | $22.0 million Q2 net charge-offs, $462.6 million non-accrual loans or 0.88% of loans, 0.34% accruing past-due loans, and 1.16% allowance for credit losses to loans | VLY Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| CRE concentration | Commercial real estate including construction was $30.3 billion or roughly 58% of loans, while the CRE concentration ratio fell to about 317% of risk-based capital from 329% at March 31, 2026 | VLY Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Capital ratios | 10.71% CET1, 11.37% Tier 1, 13.77% total risk-based capital, and 9.49% Tier 1 leverage | VLY Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Book value per share | $13.67 book value per common share and $10.13 tangible book value per common share | VLY Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 12.11x P/E, 1.05x P/B, 14.26x P/FCF, 7.01% FCF yield, and 3.08% dividend yield using financial_rigor.py | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical data | 50-day moving average $14.29, 200-day moving average $12.69, RSI 45.32, beta 1.06, and 20-day average volume 6.95 million | StockAnalysis VLY statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy consensus across 15 analysts with a $16.67 average price target, and 3-year EPS growth forecast near 19.35% | StockAnalysis forecast and ratings | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | $0.44 annual dividend, 3.08% yield, 37.29% payout ratio, and September 15, 2026 ex-dividend date | StockAnalysis dividends | August 3, 2026 |
| Management and ownership | Ira Robbins has led Valley as CEO since 2018 after joining in 1996 and now serves as Chairman; the 2026 proxy reported about 554,680 beneficial shares | 2026 proxy statement and Valley leadership page | August 3, 2026 |
This VLY AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial planning, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell Valley National Bancorp. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong if earnings, rates, deposit costs, commercial real estate losses, capital rules, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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