Valvoline Inc. research snapshot
VVV AI stock analysis reads Valvoline as the second largest US quick-oil-change chain with an 1866 brand, more than 1,650 locations, a licensing layer, and recurring preventive maintenance demand. Revenue rose 11% over the trailing twelve months to about $1.86 billion, and fiscal Q2 2026 (March 2026) beat estimates with $503.8 million in revenue and $0.41 EPS. The stock trades near $38.41 as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff with a market capitalization near $4.90 billion, about 20.7x forward adjusted earnings and roughly 51x depressed GAAP trailing earnings. Net debt of about $1.94 billion and transformation charges keep GAAP profits below their run rate. This page uses scenario ranges and source checks, not a certain stock price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$38.41
Market cap
$4.90 billion
AI score
63 / 100
Rating
Resilient quick-lube franchise, reasonable forward valuation, leverage watch
Trend status
Holding above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages near the 52-week high ahead of the Aug 5 Q3 report
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Valvoline operates the second largest US quick-oil-change network with more than 1,650 stores, a licensing layer, and recurring revenue from preventive maintenance. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Moat comes from the Valvoline brand with an 1866 heritage, the national footprint, convenience of drive-through service, and scale in procurement and training. Customer switching costs are low, but convenience and brand trust drive repeat visits. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Lori Flees has executed store growth and the Breeze integration ahead of schedule, the CFO bought $318K of stock in May 2026, and management plans to resume buybacks as leverage targets are met. The balance sheet still carries about $1.94 billion of net debt. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue rose 11% over the trailing twelve months to about $1.86 billion and fiscal Q2 2026 beat estimates. GAAP net income of $93.5 million TTM is depressed by fiscal Q1 2026 transformation charges; fiscal 2025 net income was $210.7 million. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $38.41, VVV trades near 20.7x forward adjusted earnings (consensus $1.75 for fiscal 2026) and about 51x GAAP trailing EPS of $0.73. The forward multiple is reasonable for a growing franchise but leaves a modest margin of safety. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The stock holds above the 50-day moving average near $37.56 and the 200-day near $34.32, close to the $41.33 52-week high, with a neutral RSI near 48. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risks include $1.94 billion in net debt with debt/EBITDA near 4.86x, GAAP earnings swings from transformation charges, wage and rent inflation, competition, high short interest near 10.5%, and the long-term electric vehicle transition. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive and audited data points, medium for forward estimates and chart levels. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low. The page frames scenarios and monitoring rules, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium-low |
VVV AI stock forecast
The VVV AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $38.41 quote and consensus forward adjusted earnings of about $1.75 for fiscal 2026. The three-year framework produced a bearish area near $27, a base area near $44, and a bullish area near $67 before dividends. The base case lines up with the analyst average target of $43.60, and the range shows that the current price is not cheap: upside depends on adjusted earnings growth and debt reduction, while downside comes from margin compression and a lower multiple.
$60 to $70
More likely if adjusted EPS grows toward the consensus 3-year rate near 16 to 17%, store count expands toward the 2,900+ target by 2028, same-store sales hold 3 to 5%, margins recover, leverage falls, and the market assigns a premium services multiple near 25x forward adjusted earnings.
$40 to $47
More likely if adjusted EPS compounds near 10%, comps and store growth continue, leverage stays elevated, and the multiple stays near 19 to 20x forward adjusted earnings. This lines up with the analyst average target near $43.60.
$24 to $30
More likely if wage and rent inflation keeps margins compressed, debt service costs limit reinvestment, the electric vehicle transition reduces service frequency, or the market re-rates VVV closer to 14x earnings.
VVV AI technical analysis
VVV AI technical analysis shows the stock holding above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after the Q2 2026 earnings beat. Price closed at $38.41 on July 31, 2026, about 7% below the $41.33 52-week high, with the 50-day near $37.56 and the 200-day near $34.32. Near resistance sits at $39.10 and the $40 to $41 zone, with support at the 50-day and a deeper band near the 200-day.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $38.41 | StockAnalysis and Google Finance place VVV near $38.41 as of the July 31, 2026 close. |
| Near support | $37.50 to $37.60 | The 50-day moving average near $37.56 is the first support if the stock pulls back. |
| Deeper support | $34.30 to $35.50 | The 200-day moving average near $34.32 and prior reaction zones form the secondary support band. |
| Near resistance | $39.10 to $40 | The July 31 high near $39.10 and the round $40 zone are the first upside areas before the 52-week high. |
| 52-week high | $41.33 | The 52-week high is the breakout confirmation level; a close above it would open the way for a trend extension. |
| Momentum | Neutral to positive | Price sits above the 50-day and 200-day averages with an RSI near 48, leaving room to move in either direction. |
| Volume | Average volume near 1.8 to 2.0 million shares | Average volume of about 1.8 to 2.0 million shares provides a baseline for judging breakout or breakdown conviction. |
| Volatility | About 7% below the 52-week high | At $38.41, VVV is roughly 7% below the $41.33 high, a moderate gap that allows a trend extension or a resistance rejection. |
| Invalidation | Close below $34.32 | A decisive close below the 200-day moving average near $34.32 would weaken the recovery setup. |
VVV AI trading strategy
The VVV AI trading strategy is a research framework for monitoring an automotive services stock with a near-term catalyst on August 5, 2026 (fiscal Q3 earnings). It is not personal advice and should be paired with current chart data, filings, position sizing, and defined invalidation rules.
Watch for VVV to hold above the 50-day moving average near $37.56 and clear the $39.10 and $41.33 levels on volume above the 1.8 to 2.0 million average. A new 52-week high would require follow-through in Q3 2026 and continued margin recovery.
A close below the 200-day average near $34.32 or a failed breakout after the August 5 report should invalidate the near-term momentum setup.
If VVV pulls back toward the 50-day near $37.56 or the 200-day near $34.32 without a negative store-level or margin reset, compare price action with same-store sales trends, wage reports, and Q3 results before assuming support holds.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because automotive services stocks can gap on fuel prices, wage legislation, or competitive dynamics.
Track company-operated store count growth, same-store sales, average revenue per bay, segment margins, licensing revenue trends, net debt reduction, adjusted EPS growth, free cash flow conversion, and buyback resumption.
Reduce confidence if margin improvement depends mainly on price increases instead of traffic growth, unit economics, and operating leverage.
Investment research summary
Valvoline helps vehicle owners maintain their cars through quick oil changes, fluid services, and preventive maintenance. Customers pay for speed, convenience, brand trust, and a national warranty network.
The moat is moderate. The 1866 Valvoline brand and the national footprint provide awareness and convenience, but switching costs are low because customers can choose dealer shops, local garages, or other national chains.
The thesis fails if wage and rent inflation persistently compresses store margins, debt service costs limit reinvestment, the used-car cycle reduces service frequency, competition from dealer bays and other quick-lube chains intensifies, or the electric vehicle transition cuts the service event count.
Management should be judged by store growth, same-store sales, margin recovery, net debt reduction, buyback resumption, and whether adjusted EPS growth translates into free cash flow.
Valvoline operates in a steady-demand industry because most vehicles need regular oil and fluid changes regardless of economic conditions. Long-term risks include the gradual shift to electric vehicles with fewer moving parts and less frequent service.
At about 20.7x forward adjusted earnings, the stock is priced for continued growth, and the GAAP multiple near 51x reflects depressed earnings. Margin of safety improves if price revisits lower support levels while adjusted earnings and store economics remain intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| VVV price | $38.41 | StockAnalysis + Google Finance | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.90 billion, verified as $38.41 x 127.54 million shares | StockAnalysis + Google Finance | Aug 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 127.54 million | StockAnalysis | Aug 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $1.858 billion, up 11% year over year | StockAnalysis | Aug 2, 2026 |
| TTM GAAP net income | $93.5 million (fiscal Q1 2026 charges depress the total) | StockAnalysis | Aug 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 (Mar 2026) revenue and EPS | $503.8 million revenue, beat estimate of $495.11 million; EPS $0.41, beat estimate of $0.34 | Google Finance earnings data | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | Forward P/E 20.72, GAAP P/E near 51.3x, PS 2.64, P/FCF 48.99 | StockAnalysis | Aug 2, 2026 |
| 52-week high / low | $41.33 / $28.50 | StockAnalysis + Google Finance | Aug 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy; 15 analysts; average target $43.60, median $45, range $35 to $48 | StockAnalysis | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation | Bull 15% growth/25x PE: $66.50, Base 10% growth/19x PE: $44.30, Bear 3% growth/14x PE: $26.80 | financial_rigor.py three-scenario calculation | Aug 3, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell VVV stock. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data, technical snapshots, and stated assumptions as of the data cutoff date and may be wrong. Always verify current filings, prices, risks, and personal suitability before making financial decisions.
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