Tesla, Inc. research snapshot
TSLA AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads Tesla, Inc. as a high-optionality platform whose stock has repriced sharply while its profit margins compressed. The reference quote was $311.21 at the July 31, 2026 close, about 23% below the July 8, 2026 level and 26% lower over the last month, with a market capitalization near $1.23 trillion verified as $311.21 times 3.9495 billion shares. The Q2 2026 report, released July 22, 2026, delivered revenue of $28.2 billion, up 25.5% year over year, but operating income collapsed to $398 million, a roughly 1.4% operating margin, and net income fell to $1.11 billion. Trailing EPS is $1.08, so the stock trades near 288x trailing earnings and about 161x forward earnings. The stock sits below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages with a 14-day RSI near 32. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$311.21
Market cap
About $1.23 trillion, verified as $311.21 x 3.9495 billion shares
AI score
55 / 100
Rating
High-optionality innovation platform with compressed margins and an extreme valuation
Trend status
Bearish short-term trend below every major moving average inside a high-volatility long story
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Tesla sells EVs, energy storage, charging, software-enabled features, services, and insurance, with TTM revenue near $103.6 billion and a growing services and energy mix. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from brand, Supercharger reach, vehicle software, data feedback loops, battery and manufacturing scale, and AI talent, but EV pricing power has weakened under Chinese competition. | Medium |
| Management | Elon Musk remains central to direction, narrative, and risk. Q2 2026 showed aggressive AI capital spending that left quarterly free cash flow negative while operating margins compressed. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue rose 25.5% year over year to $28.2 billion, but operating income fell to $398 million and net income slipped to $1.11 billion; TTM EPS is $1.08. | High |
| Valuation | At $311.21, verified valuation is about 288x trailing EPS, 161x forward earnings, 14.2x book value, and 213x trailing free cash flow, leaving essentially no conventional margin of safety. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | TSLA closed below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages on July 31, 2026, with 14-day RSI near 31.7 and an ADX near 30 confirming a strong downtrend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because margin compression, robotaxi timing, the NHTSA suspension probe, China and SpaceX headlines, AI capital spending, regulation, and key-person concentration all sit inside the current price. | High |
| AI confidence | High confidence for historical data and market math that matched across SEC and StockAnalysis.com. Medium confidence for forward scenario ranges that depend on autonomy economics. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Lower than AI data confidence because verified data does not prove future robotaxi, energy, or robotics profitability at the scale the price assumes. | Medium-low |
TSLA AI stock forecast
The TSLA AI stock forecast uses scenarios, not a precise prediction. A mechanical three-year model starting from the FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $1.78 produces values far below the current price unless exit multiples stay extreme. A bullish 35% adjusted EPS growth path at a 45x exit multiple gives a value near $197, about 37% below the $311.21 quote, while a base case at 20% growth and 25x gives about $77. The current price therefore requires either sustained extreme multiples or an enormous profit recovery from autonomy, robotaxi, energy, or robotics.
$330 to $450
More likely if Tesla proves robotaxi unit economics, expands energy storage margins, stabilizes automotive gross margin, makes AI capital spending produce cash flow, and reclaims the $360 to $390 moving average cluster with volume. Analyst high targets near $420 to $480 align with this case.
$180 to $300
More likely if revenue keeps growing double digits but margins stay thin near current levels, autonomy remains mostly optionality, and the stock ranges between the $297 support zone and the $400 area while the multiple drifts lower.
$100 to $180
More likely if margin compression continues, AI capital spending keeps free cash flow negative, robotaxi milestones slip, the NHTSA probe escalates, China or SpaceX developments distract, or the multiple compresses toward the 15x to 20x forward area implied by the $125 low target.
TSLA AI technical analysis
TSLA AI technical analysis is bearish as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $311.21 on July 31, 2026, below its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages. Barchart listed the 20-day moving average near $363.93, the 50-day near $390.76, the 100-day near $388.96, and the 200-day near $411.60. The 14-day RSI was near 31.70 and the 14-day ADX near 30.32 with negative directional movement dominant. The 52-week low of $297.38 is the nearby downside marker.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $311.21 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 3.9495 billion shares outstanding. |
| Near support | $297 to $304 | The 52-week low is $297.38 set on July 29, 2026, with Barchart placing first support near $303.62, a natural test zone on any further weakness. |
| Next support | $290 | Barchart listed third support near $290.09, below the 52-week low, as the next downside marker if support fails. |
| Near resistance | $317 to $331 | Barchart placed first resistance near $317.15 and third resistance near $330.68, the first supply zone above the close. |
| 20-day moving average | $363.93 | Barchart listed the 20-day moving average near $363.93 on July 31, 2026. A reclaim would be the first sign of stabilization. |
| 50-day moving average | $390.76 | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart both reported the 50-day moving average near $390.76 on July 31, 2026, now far above price. |
| 200-day moving average | $411.60 | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart both reported the 200-day trend line near $411.60, well above price and confirming the longer-term downtrend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 32, stochastic near 8 | The 14-day RSI was near 31.70 and 14-day stochastic near 8, approaching oversold conditions after a sharp drop. |
| Volume | About 41 million 20-day average | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 41.0 million shares, high liquidity that also reflects heavy headline-driven trading. |
| Volatility | 14-day historical volatility near 67% | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 67% and a five-year beta of 1.84, so position sizing must allow wide daily swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $297.38 | A decisive close below the 52-week low of $297.38 would confirm a new leg lower. A close back above the 20-day near $364 would signal the downtrend may be stabilizing. |
TSLA AI trading strategy
The TSLA AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework. It is not personalized advice. Pair any setup with position sizing, a defined stop, earnings dates, delivery data, margin evidence, cash flow checks, and news review.
Wait for TSLA to stop making new lows above the $297 to $304 support zone and then close back above the 20-day moving average near $364 before treating momentum as stabilizing.
A close below $297.38 extends the downtrend and should invalidate a long setup. A failed reclaim of the 20-day moving average also keeps risk to the downside.
If TSLA stays oversold on RSI near 32 but holds the $297 to $304 zone without new fundamental damage, compare the reaction with fresh gross margin, delivery, free cash flow, and robotaxi evidence before acting.
Do not catch the falling knife. Define maximum loss and position size before entry because NHTSA, China, and SpaceX headlines can widen moves quickly.
Track automotive gross margin, energy storage margins, free cash flow versus AI capital spending, robotaxi and FSD milestones, NHTSA probe outcomes, China business developments, Musk ownership, and SpaceX-related news.
Lower confidence if price rallies on autonomy or merger headlines while filings still show compressed margins and negative quarterly free cash flow.
Investment research summary
Tesla is paid to sell electric vehicles, energy storage systems, charging access, service, insurance, and software-enabled vehicle features. The long-term thesis adds autonomy, robotaxi, and robotics, but those economics remain scenario-based and are not yet visible in financial statements.
Brand, battery and manufacturing scale, Supercharger reach, vehicle software, data feedback loops, and AI talent create a real moat. The weak point is that EV hardware faces heavy price competition, so the moat increasingly depends on software and energy optionality.
The thesis fails if Tesla stays mostly a low-margin automaker while investors keep pricing it as a high-margin AI platform. Other failure paths include robotaxi delays, regulatory escalation from the NHTSA probe, China business disruption, AI capital spending absorbing cash flow, and key-person distraction from SpaceX or other ventures.
Management built a rare manufacturing and software platform, but the company is unusually tied to Elon Musk. His ownership, incentives, outside companies, and public statements are core analytical variables, and Q2 2026 capital spending decisions are a current test of capital allocation discipline.
EV adoption is a maturing, competitive trend. Autonomy, AI compute, stationary storage, and robotics are longer-duration trends where Tesla holds optionality but faces strong competition from BYD, Waymo, and other players. The risk is profits accrue later, elsewhere, or at lower margins than the price implies.
At roughly $1.23 trillion market value, about 288x trailing EPS and 161x forward earnings, TSLA has minimal conventional margin of safety. The stock needs either extreme multiple persistence or a very large profit recovery for the current price to look conservative.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reference price | $311.21 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | July 31, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | About $1.23 trillion, verified as $311.21 x 3.9495 billion shares with 0.01% deviation | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 3.949 billion as of June 30, 2026 | Tesla Q2 2026 Form 10-Q cover and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue | $28.236 billion, up 25.5% year over year, matching SEC 10-Q XBRL and StockAnalysis.com with 0.00% deviation | financial_rigor.py cross-validation | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 profitability | Gross profit of $4.751 billion (16.8% gross margin), operating income of $398 million (1.4% operating margin), net income of $1.114 billion down about 4.9% year over year | Tesla Q2 2026 Form 10-Q via SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 2, 2026 |
| H1 2026 results | Revenue of $50.623 billion and net income of $1.591 billion | Tesla Q2 2026 Form 10-Q via SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM financials | TTM revenue of $103.62 billion, net income of $3.80 billion, and EPS of $1.08 through June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | Revenue of $94.827 billion, down 2.93%, and net income of $3.794 billion, down 46.79% | Tesla 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis.com | August 2, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash and short-term investments of $43.52 billion, total debt of about $9.3 billion including finance leases, net cash near $34.2 billion, and stockholders equity of $86.86 billion at June 30, 2026 | Tesla Q2 2026 Form 10-Q and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash flow | TTM operating cash flow of $18.69 billion and capital expenditures of $12.92 billion, giving free cash flow of $5.76 billion; quarterly free cash flow was negative in Q2 2026 on higher AI capital spending | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation check | PE 288.2x, forward PE 161.0x, PS 11.86x, PB 14.15x, P/FCF 213.3x, EV/EBITDA 110.8x | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Revenue and profit segments, TTM | Automotive sales $72.59 billion, regulatory credits $1.49 billion, automotive leasing $1.58 billion, energy generation and storage $12.80 billion, services and other $15.17 billion | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day SMA near $363.93, 50-day SMA near $390.76, 100-day SMA near $388.96, 200-day SMA near $411.60, 14-day RSI near 31.70, 14-day ADX near 30.32, 14-day historical volatility near 67% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | July 31, 2026 |
| Key turning points | 52-week high $498.83, 52-week low $297.38, first support $303.62, first resistance $317.15 | Barchart TSLA cheat sheet and overview | July 31, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $398.30 across 47 analysts, low $125, median $415, and high $600 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | July 29, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 17 Strong Buy, 6 Buy, 17 Hold, 2 Sell, 4 Strong Sell out of 46 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 29, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Mizuho $460 to $450, Truist Hold $370, RBC $500 to $480, Deutsche Bank $465 to $420, Phillip Securities Sell $220 | StockAnalysis.com forecast latest forecasts and TipRanks | July 29, 2026 |
| FY2026 and FY2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate $105.72B with adjusted EPS $1.78, FY2027 revenue $120.49B with adjusted EPS $2.22 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | July 29, 2026 |
| Short interest | 70.65 million shares short, 1.79% of shares outstanding, 1.63 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 2, 2026 |
| Earnings dates | Q2 2026 report released July 22, 2026 after market close; next earnings date October 28, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart.com | August 2, 2026 |
| Recent risk news | NHTSA opened a preliminary probe into about 1.2 million Tesla vehicles over suspension failure reports on July 31, 2026; WSJ reported Tesla may separate its China business ahead of a potential SpaceX merger, which Musk publicly dismissed as false | StockAnalysis.com TSLA news and Barchart.com | August 2, 2026 |
This TSLA AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, regulatory developments, market moves, or macro conditions.
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