VSE Corporation research snapshot
VSEC AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads VSE Corporation as a fast-growing aviation aftermarket parts distribution and MRO platform whose stock trades at a demanding valuation. The analysis is not a certain price prediction. At the cutoff, the stock traded at $204.04 to $204.31, up 4.96% to 5.10% from the $194.39 close on July 31, carrying a market capitalization near $5.72 billion, computed as the $204.04 reading times 28.06 million shares outstanding and reported by StockAnalysis.com. Q1 2026 delivered revenue of $325 million up 27%, adjusted EBITDA of $55 million up 37% at a 17.1% margin, and adjusted EPS of $1.17, and management raised full-year 2026 guidance to revenue growth of 57% to 61% and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 18.1% to 18.5% after closing the Precision Aviation Group acquisition on May 5, 2026. The stock still trades at about 90x trailing GAAP earnings and about 44x to 47x forward adjusted earnings, so the core question is whether sustained growth can justify the multiple. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$204.04 to $204.31 on the August 3, 2026 intraday reading near 10:22 to 10:39 a.m. EDT, up 4.96% to 5.10% from the $194.39 July 31 close, after opening at $197.17
Market cap
$5.72 billion on StockAnalysis.com, computed as $5.73 billion from the $204.04 reading times 28.06 million shares
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
High-growth aerospace aftermarket platform at an elevated valuation
Trend status
Volatile uptrend: back above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, but well below the July 6 all-time high of $240.56, with Q2 earnings due August 5
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | VSE provides aviation aftermarket parts distribution and MRO services for commercial, business, general aviation, rotorcraft, OEM, and defense customers. Q1 2026 revenue was $325 million up 27%, organic revenue grew about 15%, and engine aftermarket activity now represents more than half of total revenue. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from OEM-aligned distribution agreements such as the Pratt and Whitney Canada APU program spanning more than 2,500 SKUs, FAA and regulatory certifications, repair and DER capabilities, customer switching costs in mission-critical MRO, and scale in parts sourcing, but competitors such as HEICO, StandardAero, and AAR provide alternatives. | Medium |
| Management | CEO John Cuomo has led a transformation built on acquisitions, OEM program wins, and margin expansion. The PAG acquisition closed May 5, 2026, creating 61 locations across eight countries, and Q1 delivered record revenue and profitability with a raised 2026 guidance. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Revenue grew 41.5% in FY2025 to $1.11 billion and management guides FY2026 revenue growth of 57% to 61% with PAG included. Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA rose 37% to $55 million at a 17.1% margin, and adjusted EPS was $1.17. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | The stock trades at about 90x trailing GAAP earnings, about 44x to 47x forward adjusted earnings, about 4.6x sales, and about 2.1x book value. These multiples require sustained high growth, though the forward multiple is lower than the trailing one. | Medium |
| Technical trend | After a record high of $240.56 on July 6, VSEC fell to $184.98 on July 29, dipped below its 200-day moving average near $191.93, and rebounded to about $204 on August 3, back above the 50-day average near $199.33, with RSI around 51.55. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Key risks are valuation compression, aerospace cycle sensitivity including elevated fuel prices, heavy acquisition integration, customer concentration with an affiliated group near 20% of revenue, dilution from equity issuance for PAG, and the very high multiple creating asymmetry to the downside. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and cross-checked math that matched across StockAnalysis.com and Barchart. Lower for forward return estimates because PAG integration, organic growth, and the multiple are uncertain. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low-to-medium. The page gives a research framework and scenario ranges, not a buy or sell instruction. | Low-to-medium |
VSEC AI stock forecast
The VSEC AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $204.04 to $204.31 August 3, 2026 cutoff price and the FY2026 consensus of about $4.37 adjusted EPS. The stock already prices in strong execution, so the scenarios are wide. It does not claim that AI can predict a specific future price.
$260 to $300
More likely if organic growth stays in the high teens to 20% range, PAG synergies land faster than planned, adjusted EBITDA margins exceed 19%, engine aftermarket demand stays strong, and the market holds a 35x or higher forward multiple. This area matches the $260 to $280 analyst high targets.
$170 to $230
More likely if growth normalizes to the mid-teens, adjusted EBITDA margins reach the guided 18.1% to 18.5%, PAG integration proceeds on plan, and the forward multiple compresses toward 30x as the acquisition digests. The analyst consensus price target of $257.56 sits at the top of this range.
$110 to $150
More likely if aerospace aftermarket demand softens from fuel-driven pressure, an acquisition integrates poorly, organic growth slows toward low single digits, or the market compresses the multiple below 20x forward earnings.
VSEC AI technical analysis
VSEC AI technical analysis starts from the $204.04 to $204.31 August 3, 2026 intraday reading. The stock set an all-time high of $240.56 on July 6, 2026, fell about 23% to $184.98 on July 29, dipped below its 200-day moving average near $191.93, and rebounded to about $204 on August 3, ahead of Q2 earnings on August 5. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $204.04 to $204.31 | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart real-time quotes near 10:22 to 10:39 a.m. EDT on August 3, 2026, up 4.96% to 5.10% from the $194.39 July 31 close, after opening at $197.17. |
| All-time high | $240.56 | Record high reached July 6, 2026. The main overhead resistance on any sustained recovery. |
| Key resistance | $205 to $210 | The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the $147.49 to $240.56 range sits near $205.01 on Barchart, with the $197 to $204 area as minor overhead after the August 3 rebound. |
| Near support | $194 to $197 | The July 31 close of $194.39 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement near $194.02 form a first support zone on pullbacks. |
| Secondary support | $183 to $190 | The July 29 intraday low of $183.20, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near $183.04, and Barchart support levels near $182.75 to $189.97 form the key demand zone that held the July selloff. |
| 50-day moving average | $199.33 | StockAnalysis.com reported the 50-day moving average near $199.33 on August 3, 2026. The stock rebounded back above it after dipping below during the July correction. |
| 200-day moving average | $191.93 | StockAnalysis.com reported the 200-day moving average near $191.93 on August 3, 2026. The stock closed below it at $184.98 on July 29 before recovering, so holding back above it is important for the long-term trend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 51.55, neutral | StockAnalysis.com reported 14-day RSI near 51.55 on August 3, 2026, neutral after the oversold July low. One-month performance was about -13.84% while the 52-week gain was about +36.85%. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 409,573 shares | StockAnalysis.com reported 20-day average volume near 409,573 shares. The July 8 selloff printed about 908,000 shares and the July 29 drop about 419,000, showing conviction during the drawdown. |
| Volatility | Elevated near earnings | Barchart reported implied volatility near 64.78% and historical volatility near 49.44% on August 3, 2026, with IV percentile near 89%, so position sizing should account for large swings around the August 5 earnings report. |
| Invalidation | Close below $183, then below $175 | A decisive close below the $183 to $190 support zone would confirm a lower high and weaken the recovery. A break below $175 would challenge the longer-term uptrend structure. |
VSEC AI trading strategy
The VSEC AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines business fundamental evidence, technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels, with Q2 2026 earnings scheduled for August 5, 2026.
Look for VSEC to hold above the 50-day moving average near $199.33 and to reclaim the $205 to $210 resistance area on improving volume after the August 3 rebound. A move above $210 with the 200-day near $191.93 still rising would suggest the July correction is over.
A daily close below the $183 to $190 support zone weakens the trend-following case. Respect position limits given the high absolute valuation and the upcoming earnings catalyst.
If VSEC re-tests the $194 to $197 zone or the $183 to $190 support without a fundamental thesis break, compare the price reaction with the August 5 earnings report, organic growth, and margin guidance before acting.
Do not average down solely because the stock is down from the all-time high. Define maximum loss and review valuation first, because high-multiple stocks can gap after earnings.
Track Q2 2026 earnings on August 5, 2026, revenue growth, adjusted EBITDA margin progress toward 18.1% to 18.5%, PAG integration and synergies, organic growth, net leverage reduction toward below 2.5x, engine aftermarket demand, and customer concentration.
Lower confidence if organic growth slows meaningfully, integration drags, or the stock stays expensive while forward estimates drift lower.
Investment research summary
VSE distributes aftermarket aviation parts and provides MRO and asset management services across commercial, business and general aviation, rotorcraft, OEM, and defense markets, with engine aftermarket activity now over half of total revenue and recurring demand tied to fleet utilization and age.
The moat rests on OEM-aligned distribution agreements, regulatory and repair certifications, DER and engineering capabilities, customer switching costs in mission-critical MRO, and distribution scale, but competitors like HEICO and StandardAero provide alternatives.
The thesis can fail if aerospace aftermarket demand cycles down or fuel prices pressure flying, a large acquisition like PAG integrates poorly, the very high multiple compresses as growth normalizes, or customer concentration near 20% of revenue creates a concentrated revenue risk.
CEO John Cuomo has led a transformation through OEM program wins, M&A, and margin expansion. The PAG close created a scaled 61-location platform, and management raised 2026 revenue and margin guidance while targeting adjusted EBITDA margins above 20% over time.
Aerospace aftermarket demand benefits from aging aircraft fleets, high fleet utilization, supply constraints, and growing engine teardown and repair activity. Management says it has not yet seen demand pullback from elevated fuel prices.
At about 90x trailing GAAP earnings and about 44x to 47x forward adjusted earnings, the stock prices in aggressive growth. The margin of safety is thin unless organic growth, PAG synergies, and margin expansion all sustain for several years.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| VSEC price | $204.04 to $204.31 on the August 3, 2026 intraday reading near 10:22 to 10:39 a.m. EDT, up 4.96% to 5.10% from the $194.39 July 31 close, after opening at $197.17 | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart real-time quotes | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $5.72 billion reported by StockAnalysis.com, computed as $5.73 billion from the $204.04 reading times 28.06 million shares via financial_rigor.py | StockAnalysis.com quote and share statistics; financial_rigor.py verification | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $1.18 billion up 34.2%, versus FY2025 revenue of $1.11 billion up 41.5% from $786.26 million | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Revenue of $325 million up 27% (distribution up 26%, MRO up 28%, organic up about 15%), adjusted EBITDA of $55 million up 37% at a 17.1% margin, adjusted net income of $33 million, and adjusted diluted EPS of $1.17 | VSE Q1 2026 earnings call transcript and earnings release | May 6, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance | Revenue growth of 57% to 61% with PAG included, adjusted EBITDA margin of 18.1% to 18.5%, net interest expense of $37 million to $40 million, D&A of $98 million to $103 million, effective tax rate near 25%, and capex of 2% to 2.5% of revenue | VSE Q1 2026 earnings call | May 6, 2026 |
| FY2026 and FY2027 consensus | FY2026 consensus of about $1.77 billion revenue and $4.37 adjusted EPS, and FY2027 consensus of about $2.16 billion revenue and $5.68 adjusted EPS, cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com and Barchart | StockAnalysis.com forecast page and Barchart earnings estimates | August 3, 2026 |
| PAG acquisition | Precision Aviation Group closed May 5, 2026, combining VSE and PAG into 61 locations across eight countries including 48 repair facilities and 11 distribution centers, funded with equity and new debt including a $900 million term loan B and a $500 million revolver, with pro forma adjusted net leverage estimated below 3x and a path to below 2.5x by year-end | VSE Q1 2026 earnings call and PAG closing release | May 6, 2026 |
| Balance sheet at March 31, 2026 | Cash and equivalents of about $1.24 billion, total debt of about $402.5 million including leases, equity of about $2.67 billion, and book value per share near $115.86; note this predates the May 5 PAG close, after which cash funded the acquisition and the new term loan added debt | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation multiples | About 89.96x trailing GAAP PE, about 43.69x forward PE on StockAnalysis.com, about 46.69x computed as $204.04 divided by the $4.37 FY2026 consensus, about 4.62x sales, about 2.05x book, PEG near 2.10, and EV of about $4.62 billion | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Consensus rating of Strong Buy across about 10 to 11 analysts with an average 12-month price target of $257.56, a low of $230, and a high of $280. Recent actions include Jefferies Buy at $260, Citi Buy at $263, B. Riley Buy at $270, RBC Outperform at $240, and Morgan Stanley Equal Weight at $230 | StockAnalysis.com forecast page and analyst news | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range and momentum | 52-week range of $147.49 to $240.56, 50-day moving average near $199.33, 200-day moving average near $191.93, RSI near 51.55, beta of 1.21, and 52-week price change of about +39% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest and ownership | Short interest of about 3.04 million shares, about 10.83% of shares outstanding and 11.62% of float, with a short ratio near 5.38 days to cover; shares outstanding rose about 20% year over year to 28.06 million from equity issued for PAG | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | Annual dividend of $0.40 per share, a yield of about 0.21%, with the most recent quarterly dividend of $0.10 paid around July 15, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and VSE dividend release | August 3, 2026 |
This VSEC AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong.
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