StandardAero, Inc. research snapshot
SARO AI stock analysis currently reads StandardAero, Inc. as a leading independent aerospace engine aftermarket platform that is benefiting from strong aftermarket demand, LEAP and CFM56 ramp investments, and credit rating upgrades. At the August 3, 2026 research cutoff, the latest verified close was $29.31 on July 31, the calculated market capitalization was about $9.74 billion, and the stock traded above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. FY2025 revenue reached $6.06 billion, adjusted EBITDA reached $808.2 million, and the company raised its FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $1.40 to $1.50 after Q1 2026 revenue grew 13.3%. S&P upgraded StandardAero to BB in June 2026, and the company won several LEAP and military engine programs in July 2026. The central question is whether StandardAero can convert capacity investments and backlog into durable free cash flow while managing leverage, working-capital swings, new internal-control material weaknesses, and the October 2026 CEO transition. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$29.31 close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$9.74 billion calculated from 332.47 million shares, consistent with the reported reference market cap
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
Quality aerospace MRO compounder with improving credit, but leverage, cash conversion, internal controls, and CEO transition still require proof
Trend status
Above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, recovering from late-June lows but below the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | StandardAero provides critical engine maintenance, repair, overhaul, component repair, field service, asset management, and engineering services across commercial, military, helicopter, and business aviation. FY2025 revenue was $6.06 billion and Q1 2026 revenue grew 13.3% to $1.63 billion. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from OEM approvals, licensed capabilities, specialized engine knowledge, shop capacity, installed-platform experience, customer relationships, and a global footprint. It is durable but not immune to OEM competition or license loss. | Medium-high |
| Management | Russell Ford grew revenue from about $1.6 billion in 2013 to more than $6 billion in 2025, and Paul McElhinney is scheduled to become CEO on October 1, 2026. The succession is planned, but the new CEO must preserve operating discipline and cash conversion. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 15.8% to $6.06 billion and net income rose to $277.4 million. Q1 2026 revenue rose 13.3% and net income rose 27.0%, but operating cash flow was negative $119.6 million because growth consumed working capital. | High |
| Valuation | At $29.31, the stock was near 33.3x trailing earnings, 3.62x book value, 1.56x sales, and 65.6x trailing FCF per share. The $1.45 midpoint of raised FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance implies about 20x forward adjusted earnings. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The price was above the 50-day average of $27.56 and the 200-day average of $27.88, with RSI at 57.78. The setup is constructive, but the stock remains below the $34.48 52-week high rather than in a confirmed breakout. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because debt, working-capital intensity, customer concentration, OEM authorizations, labor, government budgets, new internal-control weaknesses, and the leadership transition can all affect the thesis. | High |
| AI confidence | AI confidence is high for the historical and filing-backed business map, but materially lower for future returns and any exact price target. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is below the data confidence because the key test is future cash conversion after capacity expansion, acquisitions, repurchases, debt service, and working-capital investment. | Medium-low |
SARO AI stock forecast
The SARO AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $29.31 July 31 close, not a point prediction. Using the $1.45 midpoint of the raised FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance, the financial rigor model produced three-year reference values of about $66 in a bullish case, $48 in a base case, and $25 in a bearish case. These outputs depend on non-GAAP adjusted EPS, assumed growth, and assumed exit multiples. They are not promises or personalized targets.
$58 to $68
More likely if LEAP and CFM56 capacity ramps on schedule, commercial aerospace and business aviation demand remain strong, adjusted EPS grows near 15%, free cash flow approaches or exceeds the $270 to $300 million guidance, leverage falls, and the market supports a premium multiple near 30x adjusted earnings.
$40 to $50
More likely if the raised FY2026 guidance is delivered, growth moderates toward 10%, working capital normalizes, the October 2026 CEO transition is orderly, and the market values the company near a mid-20s multiple on adjusted earnings.
$21 to $26
More likely if shop-ramp costs persist, working-capital cash burn continues, leverage remains high, an OEM authorization or major customer relationship is lost, air traffic or military spending weakens, or the valuation compresses toward the mid-teens.
SARO AI technical analysis
SARO AI technical analysis is constructive but still below the 52-week high as of the July 31, 2026 close. StockAnalysis reported a 50-day moving average of $27.56, a 200-day moving average of $27.88, RSI of 57.78, and average 20-day volume of 3,221,402 shares. The latest session volume was about 1.87 million shares. Because this page is static and does not fetch request-time chart data, confirm every level on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $29.31 | Latest verified closing price on July 31, 2026, used for this static page. |
| Near support | $28.70 to $28.85 | The July 31 intraday low was $28.71, and the prior close was $28.98. This is the first near-term support zone. |
| Trend support | $27.88 | The reported 200-day moving average is the first meaningful trend-support level below the current price. |
| Deeper support | $27.56 | The reported 50-day moving average is the next support area if the 200-day average fails. |
| Near resistance | $29.50 to $30.00 | The July 31 high was $29.50, with the round $30.00 level just above it. A close above this zone would improve the short-term breakout case. |
| Zone resistance | $30.50 to $31.00 | The January 2026 secondary offering priced at $31.00 and the GIC stockholder repurchase at $30.54 make this a meaningful overhead zone. |
| Major resistance | $34.48 | The StockAnalysis quote snapshot reported this as the 52-week high. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $27.56; 200-day $27.88 | StockAnalysis technical snapshot last checked in early August 2026. Reconfirm values after the data cutoff. |
| Momentum | RSI 57.78, moderate and not overbought | The RSI snapshot supports momentum monitoring, not a reliable forecast of future price direction. |
| Volume | 1.87 million latest session; 3.22 million 20-day average | The latest session was below the reported average, so a breakout would be stronger with volume confirmation. |
| Volatility | 52-week range $23.83 to $34.48 | The wide range reflects meaningful aerospace, earnings, leverage, and valuation sensitivity. |
| Invalidation | Daily close below $27.88, then below $27.56 | A close below the 200-day average weakens the constructive setup. A close below the 50-day average and then the $23.83 52-week low signals deeper downside risk. |
SARO AI trading strategy
The SARO AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. Pair it with live price data, position sizing, an earnings calendar, and fresh filings about cash conversion, customer concentration, internal controls, and the October 2026 leadership transition. Q2 2026 results are scheduled for August 6, 2026.
Watch for SARO to hold the $28.70 to $28.85 zone, then reclaim the $29.50 to $30.00 resistance area with volume confirmation and no deterioration in FY2026 guidance or cash conversion.
A close below the 200-day average near $27.88, followed by a close below the 50-day average near $27.56, weakens the setup. Define the maximum loss before considering any entry.
If SARO falls toward $27.56 to $27.88 without a new thesis break, compare the price move with Q2 results, working-capital trends, debt paydown, shop-ramp costs, and the CEO transition timeline.
Do not average down solely because the stock is near a moving average. A new customer, license, liquidity, control, or leverage problem can invalidate historical support.
Track revenue by Engine Services and Component Repair Services, commercial aerospace and business aviation growth, adjusted EBITDA margin, operating cash flow, free cash flow, net debt, customer concentration, OEM authorizations, internal-control remediation, and the October 2026 leadership transition.
Reduce confidence if adjusted earnings rise while operating cash flow remains weak, debt does not decline, or internal-control remediation is delayed.
Investment research summary
Customers pay StandardAero to keep engines and components safe, available, and economically useful. The company earns revenue from scheduled and unscheduled maintenance, repair and overhaul, component repair, field support, asset management, and engineering. FY2025 Engine Services revenue was $5.354 billion and Component Repair Services revenue was $708.6 million, while Q1 2026 Engine Services revenue was $1.447 billion.
The moat is built from certification and OEM authorizations, specialized technicians, engine-platform knowledge, shop capacity, long customer relationships, and a network of facilities. LEAP and CFM56 investment can create attractive future capacity, but the ramp has also pressured margins and requires execution. This is a capability moat, not a consumer network effect.
The thesis fails if capacity projects stay on the learning curve, working-capital cash burn persists, debt costs or refinancing pressure rise, an OEM authorization is lost, a large customer relationship weakens, military budgets or flight activity soften, labor becomes scarce, or the new internal-control material weaknesses lead to reporting problems. A Q1 customer represented 11.2% of revenue.
Russell Ford led StandardAero for 13 years and grew revenue from about $1.6 billion in 2013 to more than $6 billion in 2025. Paul McElhinney is scheduled to become CEO on October 1, 2026, with Ford remaining Executive Chairman through year-end. Capital allocation included a $60.1 million Q1 share repurchase, the Unified Turbines acquisition, and continued organic capacity investment. Carlyle owned about 25.5% and GIC about 5.8% of outstanding stock at March 31, 2026.
The aftermarket benefits from a large installed aircraft and engine base, higher utilization, aging fleets, and constrained shop capacity. StandardAero is positioned across commercial aerospace, military and helicopter, and business aviation. S&P and Moody’s both upgraded its credit ratings in 2026, and July 2026 brought the GE CT7-2E1 UK program, an Avolon LeaseTEAM agreement, and Arajet and SunExpress LEAP wins. The long-term trend is favorable, but demand is still exposed to airline activity, government budgets, supply chains, labor, OEM competition, and license terms.
At $29.31, the financial rigor check calculated 33.31x trailing EPS, 3.62x book value, 1.56x sales, and 65.63x trailing FCF per share. StockAnalysis also reported 16.01x EV to EBITDA and 23.05x forward PE in its early August 2026 snapshot, while the analyst consensus was Buy with a $35.46 price target. The margin of safety depends on the $1.40 to $1.50 adjusted EPS guidance being achieved, cash conversion improving, debt falling, and the multiple remaining supportive.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SARO price | $29.31 close on July 31, 2026; 52-week range $23.83 to $34.48 | StockAnalysis quote snapshot | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $9.74 billion calculated as $29.31 x 332.47 million shares; reported reference also about $9.74 billion | StockAnalysis quote snapshot and financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 332.27 million at March 31, 2026 in the 10-Q; 332.47 million in the StockAnalysis quote snapshot | StandardAero Q1 2026 10-Q and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | $6,062.5 million revenue up 15.8%, $277.4 million net income, $0.83 diluted EPS, $808.2 million adjusted EBITDA, $209.0 million free cash flow, and 2.4x net debt to adjusted EBITDA | StandardAero Q4 and full year 2025 results release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating results | $1,626.9 million revenue up 13.3%, $79.9 million net income, $203.2 million adjusted EBITDA, and $0.33 adjusted diluted EPS | StandardAero Q1 2026 results release | May 7, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 cash and debt | $89.2 million cash and $2,241.0 million debt excluding operating lease liabilities at March 31, 2026; net debt of $2,151.8 million and 2.6x net debt to adjusted EBITDA; Q1 operating cash flow was negative $119.6 million | StandardAero Q1 2026 results release and 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance (raised) | $6,325 to $6,450 million revenue, $875 to $905 million adjusted EBITDA, $270 to $300 million free cash flow, and $1.40 to $1.50 adjusted EPS | StandardAero Q1 2026 results release | May 7, 2026 |
| Trailing twelve month financials | About $6.25 billion revenue, $294.4 million net income, $221.1 million operating cash flow, and $148.5 million free cash flow through the March 2026 quarter | StockAnalysis financial and statistics snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation snapshot | 33.31x trailing PE, 23.05x forward PE, 3.62x PB, 1.56x PS, 65.63x P/FCF, and 16.01x EV/EBITDA based on the cited inputs and August 2026 reference data | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day moving average $27.56, 200-day moving average $27.88, RSI 57.78, and 20-day average volume 3,221,402 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating from 14 analysts with an average 12-month price target of $35.46, about 21% above the July 31 close; Morgan Stanley lowered its target to $31 in July 2026 | StockAnalysis forecast and TheFly analyst notes | August 3, 2026 |
| Credit ratings | S&P raised its issuer credit rating to BB from BB- in June 2026, following Moody’s upgrade in May 2026 | StandardAero S&P rating press release | August 3, 2026 |
| Leadership and ownership | Paul McElhinney scheduled as CEO effective October 1, 2026; Carlyle owned about 25.5% and GIC about 5.8% at March 31, 2026 | StandardAero CEO succession release and Q1 2026 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Source and control limitation | Material weaknesses in control environment and monitoring, period-end financial reporting, and IT general controls existed as of March 31, 2026, and disclosure controls and procedures were not effective | StandardAero Q1 2026 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
This SARO AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data and stated assumptions as of August 3, 2026, may be incomplete, and can be wrong if new filings, market prices, company events, accounting updates, or macro conditions change.
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