StandardAero, Inc. research snapshot
SARO AI stock analysis currently reads StandardAero, Inc. as a specialized aerospace engine aftermarket business with strong demand, growing engine and component repair capacity, and a meaningful debt burden. At the July 12, 2026 research cutoff, the latest verified close was $27.93 on July 10, the calculated market capitalization was about $9.29 billion, and the stock traded just above its 200-day moving average. FY2025 revenue reached $6.06 billion and adjusted EBITDA reached $808.2 million, while Q1 2026 revenue grew 13.3% but operating cash flow was negative $119.6 million. The central question is whether StandardAero can convert capacity investments and backlog into durable cash flow while managing leverage, leadership succession, and internal-control remediation. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$27.93 close on July 10, 2026
Market cap
$9.29 billion calculated from 332.47 million shares, consistent with the reported reference market cap
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
High-quality aerospace MRO growth platform with leverage, cash-conversion, and execution risk
Trend status
Above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with positive but not risk-free momentum
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026, with the latest verified market close on July 10, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | StandardAero provides critical engine maintenance, repair, overhaul, component repair, field service, asset management, and engineering services across commercial, military, helicopter, and business aviation. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from OEM approvals, specialized engine knowledge, licensed capabilities, shop capacity, installed-platform experience, customer relationships, and a global footprint. It is durable but not immune to OEM competition or license loss. | Medium-high |
| Management | Russell Ford delivered substantial revenue and capability growth, while Paul McElhinney is scheduled to become CEO on October 1, 2026. The succession is planned, but the new CEO must preserve operating discipline and cash conversion. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 15.8% to $6.06 billion and net income rose to $277.4 million. Q1 2026 revenue rose 13.3% and net income rose 27.0%, but operating cash flow was negative $119.6 million because growth consumed working capital. | High |
| Valuation | At $27.93, the stock was near 31.7x trailing earnings, 3.45x book value, 1.48x sales, and 62.1x the latest per-share FCF reference. The FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint implies a lower multiple, but it is not a GAAP measure. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The price was above the 50-day average of $26.61 and the 200-day average of $27.79, with RSI at 64.31. The setup is constructive, but the stock remains close to long-term trend support rather than in a confirmed breakout. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because debt, working-capital intensity, customer concentration, OEM authorizations, labor, government budgets, IT controls, and leadership transition can all affect the thesis. | High |
| AI confidence | AI confidence is high for the historical and filing-backed business map, but materially lower for future returns and any exact price target. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is below the data confidence because the key test is future cash conversion after capacity expansion, acquisitions, repurchases, debt service, and working-capital investment. | Medium-low |
SARO AI stock forecast
The SARO AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $27.93 July 10 close, not a point prediction. Using the $1.45 midpoint of FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance, the financial rigor model produced a three-year reference value of about $66 in a bullish case, $46 in a base case, and $23 in a bearish case. These outputs depend on non-GAAP EPS, assumed growth, and assumed exit multiples. They are not promises or personalized targets.
$58 to $68
More likely if engine and component repair capacity ramps on schedule, commercial aerospace and business aviation demand remain strong, adjusted EPS grows near 15%, free cash flow approaches or exceeds guidance, leverage falls, and the market supports a premium multiple near 30x adjusted earnings.
$40 to $50
More likely if FY2026 guidance is delivered, growth moderates toward 10%, working capital normalizes, the CEO transition is orderly, and the market values the company near a mid-20s multiple on adjusted earnings.
$21 to $26
More likely if shop-ramp costs persist, working-capital cash burn continues, debt remains high, an OEM authorization or major customer relationship is lost, military spending or aviation activity weakens, or the valuation compresses toward the mid-teens.
SARO AI technical analysis
SARO AI technical analysis is constructive but close to a decision zone as of the July 10, 2026 close. StockAnalysis reported a 50-day moving average of $26.61, a 200-day moving average of $27.79, RSI of 64.31, and average 20-day volume of 4,254,938 shares. The latest session volume was about 2.24 million shares. Because this page is static and does not fetch request-time chart data, confirm every level on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $27.93 | Latest verified closing price on July 10, 2026, used for this static page. |
| Near support | $27.70 to $27.85 | The area around the reported 200-day moving average of $27.79 is the first trend-support zone. |
| Deeper support | $26.50 to $26.70 | The reported 50-day moving average of $26.61 is the next support area if the 200-day average fails. |
| Near resistance | $29.90 to $30.50 | This zone covers the late-June and early-July trading area. A close above it would improve the short-term breakout case. |
| Major resistance | $34.48 | The StockAnalysis quote snapshot reported this as the 52-week high. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $26.61; 200-day $27.79 | StockAnalysis technical snapshot last checked in July 2026. Reconfirm values after the data cutoff. |
| Momentum | RSI 64.31, positive but not deeply overbought | The RSI snapshot supports momentum monitoring, not a reliable forecast of future price direction. |
| Volume | 2.24 million latest session; 4.25 million 20-day average | The latest session was below the reported average, so a breakout would be stronger with volume confirmation. |
| Volatility | 52-week range $23.83 to $34.48 | The wide range reflects meaningful aerospace, earnings, leverage, and valuation sensitivity. |
| Invalidation | Daily close below $26.61, then below $23.83 | A close below the 50-day average weakens the constructive setup. A break below the 52-week low signals deeper downside risk. |
SARO AI trading strategy
The SARO AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. Pair it with live price data, position sizing, an earnings calendar, debt and interest-cost checks, and fresh filings about cash conversion, customer concentration, internal controls, and leadership succession.
Watch for SARO to hold the $27.70 to $27.85 zone, then reclaim the $29.90 to $30.50 resistance area with volume confirmation and no deterioration in FY2026 guidance or cash conversion.
A close below the 200-day area followed by a close below $26.61 weakens the setup. Define the maximum loss before considering any entry.
If SARO falls toward $26.50 to $26.70 without a new thesis break, compare the price move with Q2 results, working-capital trends, debt paydown, shop-ramp costs, and the CEO transition timeline.
Do not average down solely because the stock is near a moving average. A new customer, license, liquidity, control, or leverage problem can invalidate historical support.
Track revenue by Engine Services and Component Repair Services, commercial aerospace and business aviation growth, adjusted EBITDA margin, operating cash flow, free cash flow, net debt, customer concentration, OEM authorizations, and management succession execution.
Reduce confidence if adjusted earnings rise while operating cash flow remains weak, debt does not decline, or internal-control remediation is delayed.
Investment research summary
Customers pay StandardAero to keep aircraft engines and components safe, available, and economically useful. The company earns revenue from scheduled and unscheduled maintenance, repair and overhaul, component repair, field support, asset management, and engineering. FY2025 Engine Services revenue was $5.354 billion and Component Repair Services revenue was $708.6 million.
The moat is built from certification and OEM authorizations, specialized technicians, engine-platform knowledge, shop capacity, long customer relationships, and a network of facilities. LEAP and CFM56 investment can create attractive future capacity, but the ramp has also pressured margins and requires execution. This is a capability moat, not a consumer network effect.
The thesis fails if capacity projects stay on the learning curve, working-capital cash burn persists, debt costs or refinancing pressure rise, an OEM authorization is lost, a large customer relationship weakens, military budgets or flight activity soften, labor becomes scarce, or internal-control weaknesses lead to material reporting problems. A Q1 customer represented 11.2% of revenue.
Russell Ford led StandardAero for 13 years and oversaw the expansion from a roughly $1.6 billion revenue business in 2013 to more than $6 billion in 2025. Paul McElhinney is scheduled to become CEO on October 1, 2026, with Ford remaining Executive Chairman through year-end. Capital allocation included a $60.1 million Q1 share repurchase, acquisitions including Unified Turbines, and continued organic capacity investment. Carlyle owned about 25.5% of outstanding stock at March 31, 2026.
The aftermarket benefits from a large installed aircraft and engine base, higher utilization, aging fleets, and constrained shop capacity. StandardAero is positioned across commercial aerospace, military and helicopter, and business aviation. The long-term trend is favorable, but demand is still exposed to airline activity, government budgets, supply chains, labor, OEM competition, and license terms.
At $27.93, the financial rigor check calculated 31.74x trailing EPS, 3.45x book value, 1.48x sales, and 62.07x the latest per-share FCF reference. StockAnalysis also reported 16.33x EV to EBITDA and 23.66x forward PE in its July 2026 snapshot. The margin of safety depends on the $1.40 to $1.50 adjusted EPS guidance being achieved, cash conversion improving, debt falling, and the multiple remaining supportive.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SARO price | $27.93 close on July 10, 2026 | StockAnalysis quote snapshot | July 10, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $9.29 billion calculated as $27.93 x 332.47 million shares; reported reference also about $9.29 billion | StockAnalysis quote snapshot and financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | July 10, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 332.27 million at March 31, 2026 in the 10-Q; 332.47 million in the StockAnalysis quote snapshot | StandardAero Q1 2026 10-Q and StockAnalysis | July 10, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $6.0625 billion, up 15.8% year over year; two-source variance below 0.01% | StandardAero FY2025 results and StockAnalysis financials | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $277.4 million; diluted GAAP EPS $0.83; two-source variance below 0.01% | StandardAero FY2025 results and StockAnalysis financials | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow | $808.2 million adjusted EBITDA and $209.0 million free cash flow; net debt to adjusted EBITDA 2.4x | StandardAero FY2025 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating results | $1.6269 billion revenue, $79.9 million net income, $203.2 million adjusted EBITDA, and $0.33 adjusted diluted EPS | StandardAero Q1 2026 results release | May 7, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 cash and debt | $89.2 million cash and about $2.21 billion of debt excluding operating lease liabilities at March 31, 2026; Q1 operating cash flow was negative $119.6 million | StandardAero Q1 2026 10-Q and StockAnalysis balance-sheet snapshot | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance | $6.325 to $6.450 billion revenue, $875 to $905 million adjusted EBITDA, $270 to $300 million FCF, and $1.40 to $1.50 adjusted EPS | StandardAero Q1 2026 results release | May 7, 2026 |
| Valuation snapshot | 31.74x trailing PE, 3.45x PB, 1.48x PS, 62.07x P/FCF, and 16.33x EV/EBITDA based on the cited inputs and July 2026 reference data | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 10, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day moving average $26.61, 200-day moving average $27.79, RSI 64.31, 20-day average volume 4,254,938 | StockAnalysis statistics | July 10, 2026 |
| Leadership and ownership | Paul McElhinney scheduled as CEO effective October 1, 2026; Carlyle owned about 25.5% and GIC about 5.8% at March 31, 2026 | StandardAero CEO succession release and Q1 2026 10-Q | June 2, 2026 |
| Source and control limitation | Material weaknesses in the control environment, monitoring, period-end reporting, and IT general controls remained unremediated as of March 31, 2026 | StandardAero Q1 2026 10-Q | May 8, 2026 |
This SARO AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data and stated assumptions as of July 12, 2026, may be incomplete, and can be wrong if new filings, market prices, company events, accounting updates, or macro conditions change.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
