AstraZeneca PLC research snapshot
AZN AI stock analysis reads AstraZeneca as a high quality global biopharma whose Q2 2026 core EPS beat estimates, while the share price keeps trading below its 50 day and 200 day moving averages after the Wainua and Ultomiris clinical setbacks. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, AZN last closed near $169.64 on July 31 with a verified market capitalization near $263.7 billion and an AI score of 68 out of 100. This page uses scenarios, technical levels and source backed data for informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$169.64
Market cap
$263.74 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
High-quality oncology and rare disease franchise with earnings momentum offset by pipeline and pricing risk
Trend status
Downtrend below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after clinical setbacks
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | AstraZeneca sells specialty medicines across oncology, biopharmaceuticals, rare disease, vaccines and immunotherapies, with oncology as the largest growth driver. | High |
| Moat | Patents, clinical evidence, regulatory capability, physician relationships, manufacturing scale and a global commercial network support the moat, but each medicine eventually faces competition. | Medium-high |
| Management | Pascal Soriot and the leadership team have built a large oncology and rare disease portfolio; execution should be judged by pipeline productivity, disciplined business development and returns on high R&D spending. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 8.6% to $58.74 billion. H1 2026 revenue rose 6% at constant exchange rates to $30.67 billion and core EPS rose 11% to $5.21, with Q2 2026 core EPS of $2.63 beating estimates. | High |
| Valuation | At the $169.64 July 31 close, AZN traded near 25.4x trailing EPS and 24.7x trailing free cash flow per share, with a 1.9% dividend yield. The multiple requires sustained portfolio execution. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | AZN closed below the 50 day average near $179.16 and the 200 day average near $184.33, with RSI near 43, so the trend read stays negative until a reclaim. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated by clinical trial outcomes, patent cliffs, US drug pricing policy, China exposure, currency, debt and large research commitments. | High |
| AI confidence | The data record is strong, but AI cannot turn clinical uncertainty or market sentiment into a dependable price prediction. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. AstraZeneca has clear franchise strength, but investors still need a price and risk tolerance that can absorb binary pipeline news. | Medium-low |
AZN AI stock forecast
The AZN AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $169.64 July 31 close and FY2025 core EPS of $9.16, with FY2026 guidance for low double digit core EPS growth. The audited three year framework produced a bearish area near $140, a base area near $219, and a bullish area near $291 before dividends.
$285 to $300
More likely if oncology and rare disease keep growing at double digit rates, the Sone-Ve, tozorakimab, elecoglipron and other late stage programs keep delivering, the Wainua setback stays contained, FY2026 guidance is delivered, and investors hold a premium earnings multiple near 22x on 2028 core earnings.
$210 to $230
More likely if core EPS compounds around 10% a year, generic erosion in Farxiga and Brilinta and pricing pressure are absorbed by new launches, and the market values AZN near an 18x multiple on 2028 core earnings.
$135 to $150
More likely if more pipeline programs disappoint, oncology growth slows, Farxiga and Brilinta generic losses and US pricing policy bite harder, China conditions weaken, debt limits flexibility, or the earnings multiple compresses toward 14x.
AZN AI technical analysis
AZN AI technical analysis is cautious as of the August 2, 2026 cutoff. The July 31 close of $169.64 sat below the 50 day average near $179.16 and the 200 day average near $184.33, with RSI near 43.12. These levels are snapshots from StockAnalysis, not forecasts.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $169.64 | July 31 closing price used for market cap and valuation math. The close was about 5% below the July 9 level before the Wainua update. |
| Near support | $168.40 to $169 | The July 31 intraday low was $168.44. A sustained close below this zone opens the $165 to $160 area. |
| Deeper support | $160 | A round number and the next reference below the recent lows. The 52 week low near $141.77 is further below. |
| Near resistance | $171.40 | The July 10 swing low that briefly held as support is now the first overhead level. |
| 50-day moving average | $179.16 | StockAnalysis snapshot as of August 2. Reclaiming this level would improve the short term trend read. |
| 200-day moving average | $184.33 | StockAnalysis snapshot as of August 2. This long term reference is overhead resistance until the price moves above it. |
| Momentum | RSI 43.12 | Below neutral, consistent with a weak but not oversold setup. |
| Volume | 20-day average 2.87 million shares | Compare rebound volume with this average because clinical news moves can fade or accelerate on volume. |
| Volatility | $141.77 to $212.71 52-week range | The range shows that a defensive healthcare label does not remove single stock volatility. |
| Invalidation | Close below $165 | A decisive close below $165 would extend the downtrend and require a fresh chart review. Reclaiming $179.16 would improve the short term read. |
AZN AI trading strategy
The AZN AI trading strategy is a rules based research framework for a large biopharma stock in a downtrend after clinical setbacks. It is not personal advice and should be refreshed with live prices, filings, trial disclosures and position sizing rules before any trade.
Wait for AZN to stabilize above the $168 to $169 zone and reclaim $171.40. A later move above the $179 moving average with volume confirmation would be a stronger trend signal.
A close below $165 or further material pipeline or guidance deterioration should invalidate the framework.
If AZN holds the $165 to $168 zone, compare the reaction with the H1 2026 delivery, Wainua data at the ESC Congress in August, oncology and rare disease sales, and any FY2026 guidance changes before treating weakness as a valuation opportunity.
Do not average down without a predefined loss limit. Drug development events can produce gaps that bypass ordinary stop assumptions.
Track oncology revenue, Tagrisso, Imfinzi, Enhertu, Calquence and Truqap trends, Farxiga and Brilinta generic erosion, rare disease growth, late stage readouts, 2026 revenue and core EPS guidance, R&D spending, free cash flow, net debt, China VBP and NRDL effects, and US drug pricing policy.
Reduce confidence if sales growth or cash flow increasingly depend on price, deals or one franchise while clinical productivity and balance sheet flexibility weaken.
Investment research summary
AstraZeneca turns scientific discovery, clinical development, regulatory approvals, manufacturing and specialist commercial reach into recurring sales of branded medicines for serious disease across oncology, biopharmaceuticals and rare disease.
The moat combines intellectual property, clinical evidence, regulatory know how, physician trust, manufacturing scale and global commercial reach. It is strongest in differentiated medicines and weakest when generic competition or patent expiry narrows differentiation, as Farxiga shows.
The thesis can fail if oncology growth slows, several late stage programs miss, US pricing policy and China conditions bite, generic erosion spreads beyond Farxiga and Brilinta, or debt and deal spending reduce owner cash flow.
Management has built a larger and more diversified growth portfolio, but shareholders should measure future quality through R&D returns, launch execution, business development discipline, debt management and candor around failed programs such as Wainua and the HSCT-TMA trial.
Aging populations, cancer treatment innovation, chronic disease, precision medicine and obesity treatments create long term demand. The same industry carries binary clinical, regulatory, reimbursement and patent cycle risks.
The July 31 price implied about 25.4x trailing EPS and 24.7x trailing free cash flow per share. Margin of safety depends on whether the pipeline and franchise mix can deliver the growth embedded in that valuation.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| AZN price and market capitalization | $169.64 July 31 close and $263.74 billion market cap | StockAnalysis AZN overview | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $262.77 billion from $169.64 x 1.549 billion shares, a 0.37% difference from reported market cap | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $58.74 billion revenue, up 8.6%, and $10.23 billion net income | StockAnalysis overview cross-checked with AstraZeneca Annual Report 2025 | August 2, 2026 |
| H1 2026 total revenue and core EPS | $30.67 billion total revenue, up 6% at constant exchange rates, and $5.21 core EPS, up 11% | AstraZeneca H1 and Q2 2026 results announcement | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | $15.384 billion total revenue, up 6% actual, $2.63 core EPS versus $2.50 consensus, and $1.61 reported EPS | MarketBeat AZN earnings and AstraZeneca H1 and Q2 2026 results announcement | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 core EPS | $9.16 core EPS for FY2025, consistent with the 11% H1 2026 core EPS growth | AstraZeneca Annual Report 2025 | August 2, 2026 |
| Dividend | $3.20 per share for FY2025, interim dividend raised by 3 cents to $1.06 per share for H1 2026, and a $3.23 annual rate with a 1.9% yield | AstraZeneca H1 and Q2 2026 results announcement and StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 25.40x trailing EPS, 5.23x book value, 24.66x trailing free cash flow per share and 1.90% dividend yield | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and total debt | $4.97 billion cash and $32.35 billion total debt on a trailing twelve month basis | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50 day average $179.16, 200 day average $184.33, RSI 43.12, 20 day average volume 2.87 million shares and $141.77 to $212.71 52 week range | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating with a $213.69 average price target, about 26% above the July 31 close, based on 10 analysts | StockAnalysis analyst summary | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance | Total revenue to grow mid to high single digits and core EPS to grow low double digits at constant exchange rates, with a core tax rate of 18% to 22% | AstraZeneca H1 and Q2 2026 results announcement | August 2, 2026 |
This AZN AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots and third party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete or outdated after new earnings, trial results, approvals, pricing changes, market moves or macro conditions.
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