Eli Lilly and Company research snapshot
LLY AI stock analysis currently reads Eli Lilly and Company as a rare large-cap pharmaceutical compounder whose GLP-1 growth engine keeps expanding, while the valuation still trades at a premium and the technical setup has turned neutral after a pullback of about 8% from the July high. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, LLY traded near $1,148.84 at the July 31, 2026 close with an implied market capitalization of about $1.02 trillion. This page uses scenario analysis, technical levels, source-backed facts, and risk controls. It is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$1,148.84
Market cap
$1.02 trillion
AI score
82 / 100
Rating
High-quality GLP-1 franchise, premium valuation, consolidating technicals
Trend status
Consolidating below July highs, above 200-day average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Lilly sells patented medicines across diabetes, obesity, oncology, immunology, neuroscience, and related specialty categories, with Mounjaro and Zepbound driving the current growth step-up and retatrutide in late-stage development. | High |
| Moat | The moat combines patents, clinical evidence, brand trust with prescribers, manufacturing scale, payer access, regulatory capability, and a pipeline that can extend the incretin franchise. Intense competition from Novo Nordisk and new entrants is a live constraint. | Medium-high |
| Management | David A. Ricks and team should be judged by supply expansion, guidance credibility, pricing discipline, acquisition integration, and whether the Foundayo launch and pipeline returns support durable owner earnings. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 revenue increased 56% to $19.80 billion and non-GAAP EPS rose 156% to $8.55, with full-year 2026 guidance of $82 billion to $85 billion revenue and $35.50 to $37.00 non-GAAP EPS. | High |
| Valuation | At $1,148.84 and $28.15 TTM EPS, LLY traded near 40.8x trailing earnings and about 32x forward earnings, still a premium to large-cap pharma peers after the July pullback. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | StockAnalysis listed price near the 50-day moving average of $1,147.32, above the 200-day moving average of $1,024.79, with a neutral 14-day RSI near 45.8 after the pullback from the 52-week high. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because product concentration, reimbursement and pricing pressure, the slow Foundayo ramp, competition from Novo Nordisk and emerging obesity assets, manufacturing reliability, litigation, and valuation matter at this scale. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive research and audited calculations. Lower for exact price outcomes because pharma stocks can gap around earnings, trial, FDA, safety, and policy news. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. LLY is a high-quality business, but a buy decision requires a view on long-duration obesity growth, the August 5 guidance signal, and tolerance for multiple compression. | Medium |
LLY AI stock forecast
The LLY AI stock forecast uses two anchors. First, analyst price targets cluster near a $1,277 average with a $850 to $1,600 range according to StockAnalysis, while Google Finance lists a $1,351 average with a $1,135 to $1,600 range. Second, a three-year EPS scenario model audited with financial_rigor.py uses the $1,148.84 quote, the 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance midpoint of $36.25, and bull/base/bear growth and terminal multiple assumptions.
$2,150 to $2,500 over three years
More likely if Mounjaro and Zepbound international volume keeps compounding, retatrutide clears its Q1 2027 FDA filing and Foundayo scales, realized prices stay near guidance, and the market sustains a high-30s forward multiple on continued EPS growth near 22% a year.
$1,450 to $1,700 over three years
More likely if EPS compounds in the low-to-mid teens from the 2026 guidance base, revenue lands near or above consensus of about $85 billion, payer and pricing pressure stays manageable, and investors value Lilly near 28 to 30 times forward earnings.
$700 to $900 over three years
More likely if realized prices fall faster than volume grows, Foundayo fails to scale, safety or drug-pricing policy hits the incretin franchise, competitors narrow the clinical gap, or investors compress the multiple toward the low-20s.
LLY AI technical analysis
LLY AI technical analysis is neutral as of the July 31, 2026 close. StockAnalysis listed price near $1,148.84, a 50-day moving average of $1,147.32, a 200-day moving average of $1,024.79, and a neutral 14-day RSI of 45.78. Google Finance showed a 52-week range of $623.78 to $1,249.45. The stock pulled back about 8% from the 52-week high and now sits right at its 50-day average.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $1,148.84 | StockAnalysis close snapshot on July 31, 2026, used for market cap and valuation math at the August 2, 2026 cutoff. |
| Near support | $1,147 | The 50-day moving average was near $1,147.32, so this area is the first trend support zone to monitor. |
| Secondary support | $1,119 | The July 31 intraday low was near $1,119.00. A close below it would extend the pullback. |
| Major support | $1,025 | The 200-day moving average was near $1,024.79. A break below it would damage the longer-term uptrend. |
| Near resistance | $1,150 to $1,160 | The July 30 to July 31 rebound high area sits near $1,150 to $1,160 and is the first upside hurdle. |
| Major resistance | $1,249 | The 52-week high was near $1,249.45. A sustained break above it would restart the uptrend. |
| 50-day moving average | $1,147.32 | StockAnalysis listed price just below this average, making the near-term trend signal neutral. |
| 200-day moving average | $1,024.79 | Price remained above the 200-day average, supporting the longer-term trend. |
| Momentum | 14-day RSI 45.78 | RSI was neutral, neither overbought nor oversold after the pullback. |
| Volume | Average volume about 2.3 to 2.8 million shares | StockAnalysis listed a 20-day average volume near 2.31 million shares and Google Finance near 2.81 million, normal liquidity for a large-cap stock. |
| Volatility | Low beta 0.51 with event risk | Beta near 0.51 is low, but expect larger moves around the August 5 earnings, trial data, FDA updates, pricing policy, and supply news. |
| Invalidation | Close below $1,119, then $1,025 | A close below the July 31 low would weaken the short-term setup. A break below the 200-day average would be a more serious trend failure. |
LLY AI trading strategy
The LLY AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a high-quality but richly valued pharmaceutical leader. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live quotes, position sizing, event calendars, filings, and risk limits.
Watch for LLY to hold above the 50-day moving average and reclaim the $1,150 to $1,160 zone, then confirm with a sustained break above the $1,249.45 52-week high.
A close below the $1,119 support or a failed breakout around earnings on August 5 should invalidate the short-term setup.
If LLY pulls back toward the 50-day or 200-day average without a new product, safety, or guidance problem, compare the price reaction with Mounjaro, Zepbound, retatrutide, and Foundayo evidence.
Do not average down without a defined loss limit because drug, payer, or FDA news can turn a support level into a thesis break.
Track the August 5 Q2 2026 report and any guidance raise, Foundayo weekly prescription trends, Mounjaro and Zepbound international volume and realized prices, retatrutide FDA timing, manufacturing capacity, and obesity competitor data.
Reduce confidence if revenue growth depends mainly on price, if Foundayo keeps lagging, if payer access tightens, or if EPS growth fails to convert into free cash flow.
Investment research summary
Lilly turns proprietary science, clinical evidence, regulatory approvals, manufacturing capacity, and physician adoption into recurring medicine revenue for chronic and specialty disease markets, with incretins now the main growth engine.
The moat is strongest in diabetes and obesity where clinical data, brand trust, payer access, manufacturing scale, device know-how, and patent protection reinforce each other, but Novo Nordisk and new oral GLP-1 entrants keep the field contested.
The thesis fails if GLP-1 pricing falls faster than volume grows, if Foundayo and next-generation assets underperform, if safety or pricing policy hurts adoption, if competitors produce better outcomes, or if the stock multiple compresses before earnings catch up.
Management has created a category-defining growth engine and raised guidance at Q1 2026, but future judgment depends on capacity execution, the Foundayo launch, disciplined business development, transparent pricing, and pipeline productivity.
Metabolic disease treatment is a long-duration health trend with expanding indications, and Lilly sits near its center. The same trend attracts intense competition, payer scrutiny, litigation, and regulatory attention, as the Novo Nordisk heart-drug setback shows.
LLY is priced as an elite growth compounder, not as a normal pharma stock. Margin of safety depends on whether earnings can compound fast enough to absorb a premium multiple that sits near 41x trailing earnings.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| LLY price | $1,148.84 | StockAnalysis quote snapshot | July 31, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $1.02 trillion | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 891.74 million (StockAnalysis; Google Finance lists 941.74 million, a source variance) | StockAnalysis statistics / Google Finance | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $72.25 billion, up 47.4% | StockAnalysis financials | July 30, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $25.28 billion | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM diluted EPS | $28.15 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $19.80 billion, up 56% | Eli Lilly Q1 2026 press release | April 30, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 non-GAAP EPS | $8.55 | Google Finance income statement | July 31, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | Revenue $82 billion to $85 billion, non-GAAP EPS $35.50 to $37.00 | Eli Lilly Q1 2026 press release | April 30, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $65.18 billion, up 44.7% | StockAnalysis financials | July 30, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $20.64 billion | StockAnalysis financials | July 30, 2026 |
| PE ratio | 40.81x trailing, 32.16x forward | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy, average target $1,277, range $850 to $1,600 | StockAnalysis forecast | July 27, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day MA $1,147.32, 200-day MA $1,024.79, RSI 45.78 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $623.78 to $1,249.45 | StockAnalysis overview | July 31, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 earnings date | August 5, 2026, not yet reported as of the cutoff | StockAnalysis overview | August 2, 2026 |
This LLY AI stock analysis is an informational research tool. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong if earnings, valuation multiples, clinical data, regulation, competition, or market conditions change.
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