Vulcan Materials Company research snapshot
VMC AI stock analysis currently reads Vulcan Materials as a high-quality U.S. construction aggregates leader with scarce quarry reserves, local permitting barriers, strong unit pricing, and healthy public infrastructure demand. The latest official quarter showed Q1 2026 revenue of $1.756 billion, trailing-twelve-month revenue of $8.062 billion, net earnings attributable to Vulcan of $165 million for the quarter, and adjusted EBITDA of $447 million. The caution is valuation and cycle risk. At the July 8, 2026 intraday reference of $286.14 and 129.75 million shares outstanding, verified market cap was about $37.13 billion, while the stock traded below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This VMC AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction, and should be used as an informational research tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$286.14 intraday reference on July 8, 2026
Market cap
$37.13 billion equity value
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
High-quality aggregates leader with pricing power, public infrastructure exposure, and valuation sensitivity after a sharp intraday pullback
Trend status
Below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with RSI near 45 and support tests near the high-$270s to mid-$280s
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Vulcan sells crushed stone, sand, gravel, asphalt, and ready-mixed concrete into public infrastructure, private nonresidential, residential, and industrial construction markets. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from reserve ownership, quarry location, zoning and permitting barriers, freight economics, scale, local density, and long operating relationships with public and private customers. | High |
| Management | Ronnie Pruitt became CEO on January 1, 2026 after serving as COO, while former CEO Tom Hill moved to Executive Chairman, making operating continuity important but succession execution still worth monitoring. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 revenue rose to $1.756 billion, Q1 net earnings attributable to Vulcan rose to $165 million, trailing-twelve-month revenue reached $8.062 billion, and FY2025 operating cash flow was about $1.8 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $286.14, VMC screened near 34.0x trailing EPS, 4.4x book value, 33.3x free cash flow per share, and a 3.0% FCF yield in the audited model. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock was below the 50-day moving average of $286.75 and the 200-day moving average of $291.88, with RSI near 45 after a July 8 intraday selloff. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are construction volume weakness, rate-sensitive private demand, weather, energy and labor costs, environmental regulation, quarry permitting, leverage, acquisitions, and multiple compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because official filings and third-party financial data agree on the main current figures. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | VMC is a strong infrastructure and aggregates franchise, but the stock is not a low-risk bargain because earnings are cyclical and valuation still prices in continued margin expansion. | Medium |
VMC AI stock forecast
The VMC AI stock forecast uses the July 8, 2026 intraday reference of $286.14, a 2026 EPS proxy near $9.25 based on management midpoint net earnings guidance, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The financial_rigor.py model produced a bearish area near $232, a base area near $347, and a bullish area near $466 before buybacks, acquisitions, weather shocks, commodity cost changes, rate shifts, or multiple changes. These are scenario ranges, not promises.
$440 to $470
More likely if public infrastructure demand stays strong, private nonresidential activity improves, aggregates shipments grow, pricing stays ahead of unit cost inflation, adjusted EBITDA tracks above the $2.5 billion midpoint, and investors keep paying low-to-mid 30s earnings multiples.
$330 to $360
More likely if earnings grow high single digits to low double digits, cash gross profit per ton keeps rising, capital spending remains disciplined, buybacks offset dilution, and VMC trades near a high-20s earnings multiple.
$225 to $240
More likely if construction volumes weaken, private demand stays rate-constrained, cost inflation outruns pricing, weather hurts shipments, acquisition returns disappoint, or VMC rerates toward a low-20s earnings multiple.
VMC AI technical analysis
VMC AI technical analysis is cautious as of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis listed an intraday price of $286.14, a 50-day moving average near $286.75, a 200-day moving average near $291.88, RSI near 45.02, and 20-day average volume near 1.23 million shares. TradingView idea data from 2026 cited support near $264.55 and $231.83, with resistance near $277.54 and $292.31, while current price action has already moved through some near-term reference levels.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $286.14 | July 8, 2026 intraday reference used for market cap and valuation math. |
| Immediate support | $277 to $286 | This zone covers the recent intraday pullback area, the 50-day moving average test, and prior short-term resistance that can turn into support. |
| Secondary support | $264 to $265 | TradingView idea data cited support near $264.55, which remains a relevant downside marker if the 50-day area fails. |
| Breakdown support | $231 to $233 | TradingView idea data cited a deeper support area near $231.83, close to the bearish valuation case output. |
| Near resistance | $292 to $300 | The 200-day moving average near $291.88 and the recent $299.90 close create a first resistance band after the July 8 selloff. |
| Major resistance | $326 to $330 | StockAnalysis listed an average analyst price target of $326.50, making this a broader sentiment resistance area rather than a hard technical level. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $286.75, 200-day $291.88 | Price slightly below both references signals a neutral-to-cautious trend until VMC reclaims the 200-day area. |
| Momentum | RSI near 45.02 | Momentum is not deeply oversold, so confirmation matters more than assuming an automatic rebound. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 1.23 million shares | Reclaims above $292 and $300 should be judged against above-average volume after the selloff. |
| Volatility | Beta near 1.05 | VMC has market-like beta, but earnings, weather, and construction-cycle news can create larger short-term moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $277, then below $264 | A close below the post-selloff support zone weakens the rebound case, while a break below $264 would shift attention to the deeper $231 to $233 area. |
VMC AI trading strategy
The VMC AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It links technical levels with shipment growth, aggregates pricing, unit cash cost, adjusted EBITDA guidance, capital spending, debt, and public versus private construction demand.
Watch for VMC to reclaim $292 to $300 on above-average volume while management confirms 2026 adjusted EBITDA near the $2.4 billion to $2.6 billion outlook and continued aggregates price improvement.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $277 should reduce setup confidence, especially if the next update points to weaker shipments or slower private nonresidential demand.
If VMC pulls back toward $264 to $277 without a cut to net earnings, adjusted EBITDA, or cash generation expectations, compare the new price with the verified 34.0x trailing EPS, 33.3x FCF per share, and 4.4x book value references.
Do not treat a lower price as enough if pricing no longer outruns costs, public construction weakens, leverage rises, or weather and energy costs damage margin recovery.
Track aggregates shipments, freight-adjusted price per ton, cash gross profit per ton, adjusted EBITDA, operating cash flow, capital spending, debt, buybacks, acquisitions, and CEO transition execution.
Position sizing should reflect that Vulcan owns scarce local assets, but its customers still depend on construction funding, rate-sensitive demand, and project timing.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Vulcan for locally available aggregates and related materials that are essential inputs for roads, bridges, data centers, warehouses, housing, utilities, and other construction projects.
The moat is local and physical. Quarries require scarce reserves, permits, logistics, community acceptance, and proximity to demand because aggregates are expensive to haul over long distances.
The thesis fails if construction volumes fall, public infrastructure funding disappoints, private demand stays weak, cost inflation beats pricing, permitting gets harder, leverage rises, or acquisitions dilute returns.
Ronnie Pruitt took over as CEO on January 1, 2026 after a planned succession. The key question is whether new leadership can keep The Vulcan Way pricing and operating disciplines working through a changing cycle.
Public infrastructure and reshoring-related construction support long-term demand, while high rates and slower private construction create near-term uncertainty. Vulcan benefits most when local volumes and price per ton rise together.
The current price implies continued earnings growth, resilient aggregates pricing, and execution near management guidance. The margin of safety is moderate because the franchise is strong but the valuation remains sensitive to cycles and multiples.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $286.14 intraday on July 8, 2026 | StockAnalysis VMC statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Market cap and shares outstanding | $37.13B market cap, 129.75M shares outstanding | StockAnalysis VMC statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $1.756B total revenues | Vulcan Q1 2026 results | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net earnings | $165M net earnings attributable to Vulcan | Vulcan Q1 2026 results | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $7.941B revenue, cross-checked with Macrotrends and StockAnalysis | Vulcan FY2025 results | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net earnings attributable to Vulcan | $1.0767B net earnings attributable to Vulcan | Vulcan FY2025 results | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 cash and debt | $140.2M cash and $5.086B total debt | StockAnalysis VMC balance sheet | July 8, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $1.116B free cash flow and $8.60 FCF per share | StockAnalysis VMC statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Aggregates reserves and footprint | 16.6B tons of proven and probable aggregates reserves and 425 active aggregates facilities in 2025 | VMC 2025 10-K summary | July 8, 2026 |
| 2026 management outlook | $2.4B to $2.6B adjusted EBITDA and $1.1B to $1.3B net earnings attributable to Vulcan | Vulcan FY2025 results | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical references | 50-day average $286.75, 200-day average $291.88, RSI 45.02, 20-day average volume 1.23M | StockAnalysis VMC statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| CEO transition | Ronnie Pruitt became CEO effective January 1, 2026 | Vulcan CEO succession announcement | July 8, 2026 |
This VMC AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of July 8, 2026 and can be wrong if earnings, rates, construction demand, costs, regulation, weather, or market multiples change.
