Vulcan Materials Company research snapshot
VMC AI stock analysis currently reads Vulcan Materials as a high-quality U.S. construction aggregates leader with scarce quarry reserves, local permitting barriers, strong unit pricing, and healthy public infrastructure demand. The latest official quarter showed Q2 2026 revenue of $2.156 billion, trailing-twelve-month revenue of $8.116 billion, net earnings attributable to Vulcan of $323 million for the quarter, adjusted diluted EPS of $2.59 versus a $2.47 consensus, and adjusted EBITDA of $654 million. The caution is valuation and cycle risk. At the July 31, 2026 close of $268.57 and 129.58 million shares outstanding, verified market cap was about $34.80 billion, while the stock traded below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages with RSI near 37. This VMC AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction, and should be used as an informational research tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$268.57 close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$34.80 billion equity value
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
High-quality aggregates leader with pricing power and public infrastructure exposure, held back by valuation sensitivity and a pullback below key moving averages
Trend status
Below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with RSI near 37 and price testing support above the 52-week low near $252
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Vulcan sells crushed stone, sand, gravel, asphalt, and ready-mixed concrete into public infrastructure, private nonresidential, residential, and industrial construction markets. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from reserve ownership, quarry location, zoning and permitting barriers, freight economics, scale, local density, and long operating relationships with public and private customers. | High |
| Management | Ronnie Pruitt became CEO on January 1, 2026 after serving as COO, while former CEO Tom Hill moved to Executive Chairman. The Q2 2026 beat showed operating discipline, but succession execution is still worth monitoring. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue rose to $2.156 billion, Q2 net earnings attributable to Vulcan rose to $323 million, adjusted diluted EPS beat at $2.59, trailing-twelve-month revenue reached $8.116 billion, and TTM adjusted EBITDA reached $2.354 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $268.57, VMC screened near 31.6x trailing EPS, 27.1x forward EPS, 4.1x book value, 33.9x free cash flow per share, and a 2.95% FCF yield in the audited model. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock closed below the 50-day moving average of $286.65 and the 200-day moving average of $290.42, with RSI near 36.99 and price above the 52-week low near $252.35. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are construction volume weakness, rate-sensitive private demand, weather, energy and labor costs, environmental regulation, quarry permitting, leverage, acquisitions, multiple compression, and the Mexico arbitration overhang. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because official filings and third-party financial data agree on the main current figures. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | VMC is a strong infrastructure and aggregates franchise, but the stock is not a low-risk bargain because earnings are cyclical and valuation still prices in continued margin expansion. | Medium |
VMC AI stock forecast
The VMC AI stock forecast uses the July 31, 2026 close of $268.57, FY2026 consensus EPS near $9.14, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The financial_rigor.py model produced a bearish area near $180, a base area near $299, and a bullish area near $385 before buybacks, acquisitions, weather shocks, commodity cost changes, rate shifts, or multiple changes. These are scenario ranges, not promises.
$360 to $400
More likely if public infrastructure demand stays strong, private nonresidential activity improves, aggregates shipments grow, pricing stays ahead of unit cost inflation, adjusted EBITDA tracks toward the $2.6 billion end of guidance, and investors keep paying high-20s to low-30s earnings multiples.
$280 to $310
More likely if earnings grow high single digits to low double digits, cash gross profit per ton keeps rising, capital spending remains disciplined, buybacks offset dilution, and VMC trades near a mid-20s to high-20s earnings multiple.
$165 to $195
More likely if construction volumes weaken, private demand stays rate-constrained, cost inflation outruns pricing, weather hurts shipments, acquisition returns disappoint, or VMC rerates toward a low-20s or below earnings multiple.
VMC AI technical analysis
VMC AI technical analysis is cautious as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis listed a July 31, 2026 close of $268.57, a 50-day moving average near $286.65, a 200-day moving average near $290.42, RSI near 36.99, and 20-day average volume near 1.05 million shares. The stock is below both moving averages after a pullback and sits above the 52-week low near $252.35, so the near-term trend is weak until VMC reclaims overhead resistance.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $268.57 | July 31, 2026 closing quote used for market cap and valuation math. |
| Immediate support | $266 to $269 | The July 31 daily low near $266.68 and the recent pullback zone form the first short-term support band. |
| Secondary support | $252 to $256 | The 52-week low near $252.35 is the major near-term downside marker for the current setup. |
| Breakdown support | $240 to $246 | A break below the 52-week low would open a deeper chart support zone roughly 10% below the recent range. |
| Near resistance | $271 to $273 | The July 31 prior close near $271.24 and the day high near $273.04 are the first overhead levels. |
| Major resistance | $286 to $291 | The 50-day moving average near $286.65 and the 200-day moving average near $290.42 form a band that would confirm a trend change if reclaimed. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $286.65, 200-day $290.42 | Price below both references signals a weak trend until VMC reclaims the 50-day and then the 200-day area. |
| Momentum | RSI near 36.99 | Momentum is weak but not deeply oversold, so a bounce needs confirmation rather than assuming a rebound. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 1.05 million shares | Reclaims above $271 and the moving-average band should be judged against above-average volume after the selloff. |
| Volatility | Beta near 1.05 | VMC has market-like beta, but earnings, weather, and construction-cycle news can create larger short-term moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $252.35 | A close below the 52-week low near $252.35 would break the support setup and shift attention to the $240 to $246 area. |
VMC AI trading strategy
The VMC AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It links technical levels with shipment growth, aggregates pricing, unit cash cost, adjusted EBITDA guidance, capital spending, debt, and public versus private construction demand.
Watch for VMC to reclaim $271 to $273 and then the $286 to $291 moving-average band on above-average volume while management confirms 2026 adjusted EBITDA near the $2.4 billion to $2.6 billion outlook and continued aggregates price improvement.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $252.35 should reduce setup confidence, especially if the next update points to weaker shipments or slower private nonresidential demand.
If VMC holds the $252 to $269 area without a cut to net earnings, adjusted EBITDA, or cash generation expectations, compare the new price with the verified 31.6x trailing EPS, 33.9x FCF per share, and 4.1x book value references.
Do not treat a lower price as enough if pricing no longer outruns costs, public construction weakens, leverage rises, or weather and energy costs damage margin recovery.
Track aggregates shipments, freight-adjusted price per ton, cash gross profit per ton, adjusted EBITDA, operating cash flow, capital spending, debt, buybacks, acquisitions, the Mexico arbitration, and CEO transition execution.
Position sizing should reflect that Vulcan owns scarce local assets, but its customers still depend on construction funding, rate-sensitive demand, and project timing.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Vulcan for locally available aggregates and related materials that are essential inputs for roads, bridges, data centers, warehouses, housing, utilities, and other construction projects.
The moat is local and physical. Quarries require scarce reserves, permits, logistics, community acceptance, and proximity to demand because aggregates are expensive to haul over long distances.
The thesis fails if construction volumes fall, public infrastructure funding disappoints, private demand stays weak, cost inflation beats pricing, permitting gets harder, leverage rises, acquisitions dilute returns, or the Mexico arbitration creates a legal and operational overhang.
Ronnie Pruitt took over as CEO on January 1, 2026 after a planned succession and delivered a Q2 2026 adjusted EPS beat. The key question is whether new leadership can keep The Vulcan Way pricing and operating disciplines working through a changing cycle.
Public infrastructure and reshoring-related construction support long-term demand, while high rates and slower private construction create near-term uncertainty. Aggregates pricing remains positive with widespread growth across Vulcan footprint.
The current price implies continued earnings growth, resilient aggregates pricing, and execution near management guidance. The margin of safety is moderate because the franchise is strong but the valuation remains sensitive to cycles and multiples.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $268.57 closing quote on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis VMC statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Market cap and shares outstanding | $34.80B market cap, 129.58M shares outstanding | StockAnalysis VMC statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue | $2.156B total revenues | Vulcan Q2 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net earnings and adjusted EPS | $323M net earnings attributable to Vulcan and $2.59 adjusted diluted EPS, beating the $2.47 consensus | Vulcan Q2 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA | $654M adjusted EBITDA, 30.3% adjusted EBITDA margin | Vulcan Q2 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM adjusted EBITDA | $2.354B trailing-twelve-months adjusted EBITDA | Vulcan Q2 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net earnings | $7.941B revenue and $1.077B net earnings attributable to Vulcan, cross-checked with Macrotrends and StockAnalysis | Vulcan FY2025 results and third-party data | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt as of June 30, 2026 | $194.2M cash, $4,364.3M total debt, $4,075.6M net debt | Vulcan Q2 2026 balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $1.027B free cash flow and $7.93 FCF per share | StockAnalysis VMC statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Aggregates reserves and footprint | 16.6B tons of proven and probable aggregates reserves and 425 active aggregates facilities in 2025 | VMC FY2025 10-K summary | August 2, 2026 |
| 2026 management outlook | $2.4B to $2.6B adjusted EBITDA, reaffirmed with Q2 2026 results | Vulcan Q2 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical references | 50-day average $286.65, 200-day average $290.42, RSI 36.99, 20-day average volume 1.05M | StockAnalysis VMC statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy consensus and $325.55 average price target from 23 analysts | StockAnalysis VMC forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| NAFTA arbitration update | Tribunal found Mexico violated NAFTA in several respects, but the monetary damages awarded to Vulcan were negligible | Vulcan arbitration update | August 2, 2026 |
This VMC AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong if earnings, rates, construction demand, costs, regulation, weather, or market multiples change.
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